RSS feedCommercial real estate
’A commercial real estate mini-pop
Just one month after registering a new index low, an eye-catching top line from Moody’s:
The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) measured a 6.3% increase in May, the first positive move in six months and the largest one-month increase since the inception of the index.
CMBS 1.0 vs 2.0
We’ve been monitoring trends in CMBS 2.0 — the next generation of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities — since early this year, when it became clear that issuance was set to begin climbing again.
And,
Premium capture is the new 436(g), Citi says
The repeal of Rule 436(g) sent the securitisation industry into a tizzy in the summer of 2010.
Now a component of last week’s proposed risk retention rules for Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) is sparking comparisons from some analysts,
Here comes the promised CMBS issuance
Looks like the expected 2011 rise in CMBS issuance remains on schedule, according to the WSJ on Wednesday:
In the next two months alone, an array of firms—some of which are packaging their first loans since 2007—are expecting at least $5 billion in new issues.
CRE prices keep moving…in place
Commercial real estate prices in the US increased 1.3 per cent in October, the second straight monthly increase after three months of decline — and as you can see, it’s been all sideways for about the last year:
Newfound choppiness in CRE
Commercial real estate prices in the US were defined by their choppiness in the first half of the year — but from June to August, those unpredictable monthly swings gave way to a simple downward trend.
RE-ally good news?
Readers will have heard the case against real-estate and commercial real-estate investments. But here, courtesy of Patrick Moonen of ING IM, is a more optimistic view on Wednesday:
Real estate outperformance could continue in 2011.
MERS casts its shadow on commercial mortgages
Barclays Capital analysts have done it.
They’ve linked Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems Inc — currently making headlines in US residential mortgages — to the commercial mortgage market.
And specifically,
CRE-failed bank nexus, ongoing…
FT Alphaville has long been chronicling the damage that non-performing CRE loans have done to the balance sheets of small banks — contributing to an increase in bank failures, tighter lending standards,
Choppiness continues for CRE
Moody’s on Monday released the latest update of its commercial property price index. According to the rating agency’s proprietary index, June’s woes continued through July and prices have nearly fallen back to their recession lows:
An Irish covered-bond warning
This is why Barclays Capital’s warning over Ireland’s medium-term debt sustainability matters. Note that phrasing. Ireland will not be going to the IMF tomorrow — but there’s more uncertainty in the next few years.
Goldman’s CMBS switch
Goldman Sachs — pioneers in whacky securitisation structures — have a new one:
Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is offering to give investors in the highest-rated portions of a bond sale backed by commercial mortgages control in the event the loans go bad as bankers attempt to revive the market.
US CRE prices rise, but fundamentals weak
US commercial real estate prices increased 1.7 per cent in April, according to Moody’s’ proprietary benchmark. That represented the first monthly increase since January — good news, right?
Not quite.
The commercial real estate-failed bank nexus
The warnings have become the reality. Back in October 2009, the NY Times cited an estimate by research firm Foresight Analytics that as many as 581 small banks were at risk of collapse by 2011, due in large part to their exposure to commercial real estate.
[Ireland's Bad Bank] Operatic structured finance
Like the plot-line of a tragic libretto, Opera Finance CMH ’s good fortune has taken a sudden turn for the worse.
Cue the ballad.
Opera CMH is one of the few commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) deals with significant exposure to Irish real estate — including shopping centres in Dublin.
Mind the debt funding gap, banks
European banks and troubled commercial real estate: it’s not over until it’s over. And as a report from DTZ, the London-based property broker, argued on Monday — it’s really not over at all.
Indeed,
When regulation fails, regulators turn to…more regulation
What do regulators do in the face of overwhelming evidence that they have failed at their jobs? They dust themselves off and try again, obviously.
Here’s American Banker on Monday:
Acknowledging that regulatory guidance to limit banks’ concentration in commercial real estate has failed,
Cap * 105
What is it with Lehman Brothers and 105-titled operations?
Buried in Volume II of the 2,200-page Court Examiner’s report is the story of Cap * 105 — a commercial property valuation system used by Lehman’s Principal Transactions Group (PTG) and its real estate servicer,
US CMBS delinquencies tick ever upwards
A never ending story, this.
Data released by Moody’s on Friday showed CMBS delinquencies ticked up again in February, climbing by 31bp to 5.73 per cent. The data are based on based on all loans in US conduit and fusion deals issued in 1998 or later which have a current balance greater than zero.
On those ‘epic’ declines in bank lending
Great headline from the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday: ‘Lending falls at epic pace’.
Of course, with a headline like that, one would expect a less-than-uplifting tale:
U.S. banks posted last year their sharpest decline in lending since 1942,
US commercial real estate prices rose in December, Moody’s says
Here’s a fresh and relatively rare bit of good news from the US commercial real estate market.
According to the Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI), US CRE prices rose 4.1 per cent in December,
CMBS then and now, and in 2006 to 2008
Bored of US commercial real estate yet?
Not us. Nor, it seems, are the ratings agencies.
Standard & Poor’s issued its latest quarterly report on US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) late on Friday.
Now the Australians are worried about US CRE
We admit it: we’re somewhat obsessed with commercial real estate here on FT Alphaville – but not without good reason.
So we were reassured to note that the topic of US commercial real estate is also preoccupying Guy Debelle,
The Maiden (Lanes) beauty contest
Compare and contrast.
From the FT — one maiden (I):
The US Federal Reserve is sitting on significant paper losses on the real estate assets it acquired in the Bear Stearns rescue, with much of the red ink coming from debt used to back some of the most highprofile buy-out deals of the bubble years.
US CMBS deliquencies jump to 5.42%, Moody’s says
Loan delinquencies on US commercial mortgage backed securities posted a record 52bps increase to 5.42 per cent in January, according to Moody’s. In December, the rate was 4.5 per cent.
The rating agency said the increase in the delinquency rate was the largest thus far in the ongoing downturn:
‘The most serious wave of commercial real estate difficulties is just now beginning’
Here’s one of the scariest sentences you will (in all likelihood) read today:
That’s from the latest Congressional Oversight Panel (COP) report, and it is all about — you guessed it — commercial real estate in the US.
Shadow bank losses
Alternative title: “How loan modifications distort bank results”.
Barclays Capital speculated last month that non-performing loans (NPLs) may peak in 2010. A few weeks on, and the bank is saying net-charge-offs (NCOs) may have peaked based on US banks’ recent fourth-quarter (2009) earnings.
Try, try, again at the Talf
The New York Federal Reserve has released the January subscription details for its Talf programme — the Fed’s effort to help jump-start the securitisation market.
All in all, the Fed accepted 46 bonds for the January legacy CMBS portion of its Talf programme,
BBVA’s collateral damage
Spain’s BBVA was trading over 4.4 per cent lower on Wednesday after reporting its fourth quarter results. As Bloomberg reported:
Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) — Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Spain’s second-biggest lender,