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’Looking at UK repo trends
We’ve already brought you one collateral crunchy statistic from the Bank of England’s latest monetary and finanical statistics. But here’s another interesting trend from the Bank’s gilt repo and stock lending numbers.
HMT, the Bank of England, and ELA
The Government agrees that a limited statutory power of direction for the Chancellor over the Bank in a time of financial crisis would be helpful in clarifying lines of responsibility and accountability…
Four months of UK QE
But not for Christmas! From the Asset Purchase Facility’s market notice for the BoE’s £75bn of further quantitative easing:
Asset Purchase Facility: Gilt Purchases
1. The MPC has decided on a further £75bn of gilt purchases as part of its programme of asset purchases financed by central bank reserves.
Beyond the QE2 adventure
While everything blows up… a blow-out speech by Adam Posen:
Make no mistake, the right thing to do right now is for the Bank of England and the other G7 central banks to engage in further monetary stimulus.
A return to asset purchases (in the UK)
We are a bit late to this, but here are selected highlights from Goldman Sachs prediction on Friday of further asset purchases by the Bank of England.
But this time Goldman economist Kevin Daly reckons there’s a good case for the BoE focusing on credit easing rather than the purchase of more gilts.
Mervyn, crucified [updated]
The biggest year-on-year rise since October 2008…
The second-biggest one-month increase on record…
A record high in core CPI…
A stupid seasonal quirk…
Yep, just your usual UK inflation release in 2011.
S&P sees eurozone, UK housing headwinds on swelling rates
Here’s a convenient continuation of the rising-European-rates-meets-real-estate theme.
Standard & Poor’s reckon “fresh headwinds are gaining force in Europe’s real estate markets” due to rising interest rates (or at least,
Homo Britannicus Inflatus [updated]
Desperately chugging the champagne as the lights go out — or, 2011′s new and improved UK inflation basket:
Sparkling wines are also being added due to their increased consumption, showing that despite difficult economic times,
From imbalances to imploding banks
Here’s a chart to ponder as regulators continue their forensics of the financial crisis:
It’s countries’ current account balances in 2007 against the change in the non-performing loan ratios of their banking systems between 2007 and 2009.
Dear Chancellor…
Time to get the quill out again, Governor.
From the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday morning:
So, that’s the fifth consecutive quarter that UK CPI inflation has remained above target and the 10th time Bank of England chief Mervyn King will have been forced to write to the Chancellor and explain why:
The pre-emptive UK rate hike
Citigroup’s Michael Saunders and Ann O’Kelly, on this week’s Bank of England rate decision:
We expect that the MPC will leave rates on hold at the upcoming [February 10] meeting. However, we believe it may well be a much closer call than many expect,
We’ll sit this one out, Ben
HMS QE2 will not set sail from the Bank of England … this time.
Instead, the same old song from Threadneedle Street:
Was it the UK’s above-target inflation wot sunk it? We’re getting the BoE’s latest Inflation Report on November 10,
Gilts, bashed
In a way, you sort of have to give gilts credit for hanging on to the anchor even as HMS QE2 sails out of reach, out of the harbour, into the distance, based on stronger UK GDP data.
Sure, 10-year gilts are already selling off — from historic lows — chart via Bloomberg (click to enlarge):
On to Plan B already, George?
Related link:
Osborne enters unknown and cuts £81bn — FT Alphaville
Duking it out on the MPC
Finally, the three-way split into one hawk, one dove — and seven undecided — has occurred at the Bank of England.
From the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s October meeting:
Seven members of the Committee (the Governor,
A loser’s nightmare in Europe’s debt auctions?
Did anyone else puzzle over the results of Ireland’s T-bill auction on Thursday?
The sale, after all, failed to secure the maximum amount sought, despite being extremely well covered:
Recent auctions for Portuguese bonds and Greek T-bills have also seen unusually high bid covers coincide with high yields.
That ol’ dependable 0.5 per cent, at the BoE
Noted for the record (again) on Thursday — the Bank of England’s latest decision to make sure the song remains the same:
Related link:
Caught between Scylla and Sentance – FT Alphaville
Caught between Scylla and Sentance
The song remains the same, as Led Zeppelin and Andrew Sentance would say.
The August Bank of England MPC minutes are out, and they once again offer what’s by now become the Bank’s trademark (and excruciating) mix of uncertainty on rates.
Dear George, again [updated]
July inflation data for the UK is in, and surprise, surprise: CPI is above 3 per cent — again — and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has to write a letter to the Chancellor, George Osborne. Again.
BoE: Great uncertainty and a choppy recovery
As usual, the Bank of England’s latest inflation report has been published with an impressive array of fan charts outlining the Bank’s view on inflation, GDP and other economic factors.
The general trend continues to be the expanding dimensions of the fans themselves — highlighting the growing level of ‘uncertainty’ anticipated by the Bank for the UK economy.
The sound of one central bank clapping
Compare and contrast, central banking psychology edition.
Here’s a Bank of England angle on the Fed’s got a stimulus problem this summer — in which there’s mixed but growing evidence for a downturn – deflation,
Keeping the pedal on the UK metal, with Merv
GDP surprising on the upside; sales trading up; sterling on a rocket — the British economy’s looking pretty good at the moment.
Unless you govern the Bank of England.
Here was Governor Mervyn King’s written testimony before the Treasury Committee on Wednesday,
From Bank of England to Bank of Everything
Financial Services Authority, the name of thy doom is, er, one of a selection of rubbish acronyms – as detailed in HM Treasury’s white paper on UK financial reform, released on Monday.
We’ve thus now got a bit more detail on the FSA’s successors — which include the PRA,
The BoE turns its attention to ETFs (updated)
The Bank of England’s latest financial stability report has turned its attention to the increasingly cumbersome issue of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which have recently come in for some criticism over their growing complexity and lack of transparency.
Expecting inflation like it’s August 2008
Here’s a datapoint to ponder as market commentators veer between predicting deflation and inflation.
The Bank of England’s latest quarterly inflation attitudes survey comes down firmly on the inflationary side of things — at least for the UK.
Tearing flesh off the FSA’s bones
Typical. You launch a regulatory reign of terror so wide-ranging, so baldly inquisitorial, that it would make Robespierre himself blush, and what do you get?
Oblivion.
As the Guardian reports, Britain’s new chancellor George Osborne will probably abolish the FSA after all. Starting with his Mansion House address on 16 June:
QE, the UK, Japan and samurai central banks
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Adam Posen is a Kurosawa-fan.
He is not, however, a fan of likening Britain’s future to the ‘Lost Decade’ experienced by Japan.
In a Monday night lecture,
The ECB’s QE doesn’t inhale
According to Morgan Stanley, the ECB’s recent foray into government bond purchases means the US Federal Reserve is now closer to an exit from quantitative easing (QE) than the European bank.
Which leaves the MOST analysts with a number of questions regarding its current actions.
Innovating on GBP liquidity requirements
With the UK possibly standing on shaky ground when it comes to its Moody’s-imposed AAA sovereign rating, it’s to be expected that some UK gilt holders could be getting jittery.
A reasonable alternative