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’Dove, actually…
… is all around, though in this case not until after the holidays.
The FOMC meeting on Tuesday of next week isn’t expected to produce any major policy decisions (more on which in our next post).
But there will be much talk about what might be done in the first quarter of next year,
US Markets Live: Bernanke saves the world edition
And by “Saves the World” we mean “Thanks the stars that he’s not Mario Draghi”.
We’re kicking off at 2:05pm in New York (6:05pm in London), ten minutes before we find out that Ben is late and wait another ten minutes the presser is scheduled to begin.
FOMC minutes from the Aug 9 meeting
UPDATE: Having chewed on these for a little while, it seems the momentum on the committee is towards doing something more accomodative at the next meeting in September.
More than we had realised, anyway. We were completely unsure about this after Jackson Hole,
Deflated inflation expectations
Given the attention that inflation expectations received in Tuesday’s release of the latest FOMC minutes, we’re not the least bit surprised that it’s been the topic du jour among analysts (along with other distractions).
Further further reading
For the commute home, where your wealth funds are always sovereign,
- A quick who’s who in Yemen.
- Bernanke to start doing quarterly press conferences.
- Surprise! SWFs help prop up autocrats.
Bernanke and the real costs of QE2
We’ve said a few times that there are right ways and wrong ways to criticise QE2. One of the wrong ways, it seems to us, is to say that the policy hasn’t had its intended effect on markets.
The goal
FOMC follow-up
It didn’t take long for a narrative to emerge in the aftermath of the FOMC statement: the Fed is preparing to pursue fresh QE measures soon in spite of not having done so this time round.
The market seems to agree with this,
Before Jackson Hole, Part 2: advice from economists
Further to our recap of the economic warning signs facing the Fed, here’s a round-up of economists’ advice for what Ben Bernanke should say in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
Below we list a few of the latest previews,
Before Jackson Hole, Part 1: since last we met
It is now 17 days since the eagerly-awaited FOMC statement in which Ben Bernanke announced the plan to re-invest the repayments from the Fed’s MBS holdings into long-dated treasuries.
Given all the interest in his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday,
Get Goldman (and those evil speculators)
First Obama, then Lagarde, and then Spanish media.
And now, Bernanke.
“We are looking into a number of questions related to Goldman Sachs and other companies and their derivatives arrangements with Greece.
New Year sales, Federal Reserve edition
From the FRBNY:
Purchases of agency MBS by investment managers acting as agents for the System Open Market Account (SOMA).
(Click image for a sharper version)
Hope they kept the receipt!
And from Brad Setser at the CFR,
If all else fails, devalue the dollar
The Fed is mothballing its $559bn supplementary financing program. Or, to put it even more obliquely:
Washington – The balance in the Treasury’s Supplementary Financing Account will decrease in the coming weeks as outstanding supplementary financing program bills mature.
The parabolic Fed: divorcing monetary policy from money
There’s just no interest in it.- Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products, MF Global, on US Treasuries.
The US Department of the Treasury held a $10bn auction of 30-year bonds yesterday, and it wasn’t pretty.
Awaiting application to the Long Room…
“…avid FT reader…”
No Bernanke, No Comment.
Related links
Long Room – FT Alphaville
Ben Bernanke’s blog – News Groper
FOMC in the spotlight: interest rates and empty seats
Summing up the mood in the markets ahead of the Fed’s Wednesday interest rate decision at 2.15pm EST, Real Time Economics at the WSJ on Tuesday proclaimed: “We Know What They’ll Say, Just Not How They’ll Say It”.
Bernanke is no Toto to the Wizard of Oz
There is a lot of friction between politicians and central banks. So much heat, so little light. Lawmakers are throwing their weight around.
The Bank of England alone is still ahead of the politicians.
News from Jackson Hole: Saddle up ma, it’s a shadow banking run
Perhaps it’s true what George Bernard Shaw said – that if you laid down every economist in a line, they still wouldn’t reach a conclusion. Things are decidedly inconclusive at Jackson Hole in Wyoming, where central bankers are meeting for their annual symposium.
Unpleasant central banking medicine
Sitting comfortably? Time for some more counter-intuitive thinking. Central banks shouldn’t avoid recessions says the Economist this Friday. In fact, sometimes — like now — recessions are needed and long overdue.