RSS feedBarack Obama
’Electoral maths: Presidential elections and the S&P 500
Posted by John McDermott on Dec 14 19:03. Comment.In December of last year, we read a few posts suggesting 2011 would see above average returns for the S&P 500 since it was the third year of a presidential term, which has historically proved lucrative for equity investors (chart from Credit Suisse): More…
What awaits you, Mr President(-elect?)
Posted by Cardiff Garcia on Nov 14 21:18. Comment.There’s only one thing we know for sure about next year’s campaign for President: the winner will have no time to celebrate.
But before we get to that, here are some of the key issues that affect how much fiscal drag the US economy will confront in the next couple of years (all numbers courtesy of Nomura analysts). More…
A very slightly stimulating speech
Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Sep 09 08:20. Comment.As we noted earlier, President Obama’s speech was perhaps a little too hotly anticipated, given the political constraints it faces.
And markets were not deeply impressed — Asia’s main indices were up less than 0.5 per cent, More…
The shrinking, stalling debt ceiling deal
Posted by John McDermott on Jul 11 18:27. Comment.Another weekend of business casual negotiations in Washington failed to deliver a deal to raise the debt ceiling.
In response, President Obama held a press conference on Monday morning to urge a compromise and repeat his position on the size and shape of a deal. More…
The quick demise of the ‘OBL death rally’, where next?
Posted by Gwen Robinson on May 03 09:09. Comment.As happens so often in markets, optimism generated by one event can be quickly off-set by associated downside risks. Initial cheer on Sunday night in the US over news that US forces had killed Osama bin Laden in his Pakistan stronghold was overtaken by concerns about retaliatory action and longer-term challenges. More…
Shutdown averted, at least until Thursday
Posted by John McDermott on Apr 09 06:24. Comment.There’s a deal, for now.
The particle accelerator will keep whizzing, kids will see pandas this weekend and Wall St can still just about function.
From the FT in the wee hours of Saturday morning: More…
A complete shut-show [updated]
Posted by John McDermott on Apr 07 18:19. Comment.Moving at a pace reminiscent of potentially visitor-less animals at the National Zoo, US lawmakers are still negotiating the size and shape of a budget deal before the current continuing resolution runs out at midnight on Friday: More…
Shutdown averted, again, perhaps, or maybe not
Posted by John McDermott on Mar 31 18:40. Comment.Shutdown fears seemed to have shutdown on Wednesday evening when lawmakers allegedly found the contours of a deal to fund the government through the end of FY 2011.
Unsurprisingly, John Boehner on Thursday says no deal is imminent. More…
Meanwhile, in Washington…
Posted by Cardiff Garcia on Mar 15 20:31. Comment.We covered the economics of a government shutdown earlier this month, when we found ourselves awaiting passage of another continuing resolution to fund the government a few more weeks, buying time for negotiators on both sides to hammer out a deal for the Fiscal Year 2011 budget. More…
The FT Alphaville State of the Union game
Posted by FT Alphaville on Jan 25 22:12. Comment.Tonight is the State of the Union — a chance for the US to reflect on its past, look to the future, and play drinking games.
If you’re interested in some pre-game reading, then we recommend checking out the following: More…
Looking down on the tax cut deal
Posted by Cardiff Garcia on Dec 08 16:14. Comment.Like many others, we think the tax cut compromise isn’t an ideal way to stimulate the economy, but to not have done anything — letting all the tax cuts expire and refusing to extend unemployment insurance — would have been worse. More…
Deleveraging and the tax compromise
Posted by Cardiff Garcia on Dec 07 22:52. Comment.Given the politics of the moment, the compromise deal on extending the Bush tax cuts was an all-or-nothing proposition. Either Republicans and Democrats would get everything they wanted (of the things that mattered), More…
Obama announces compromise on Bush tax cut extension
Posted by Cardiff Garcia on Dec 06 23:51. Comment.Barack Obama has just given a speech announcing a compromise between Democrats and Republicans over the extension of the Bush tax cuts. It’s mostly what we (and everyone else) reported earlier would probably happen — a two-year extension of all the Bush tax cuts plus a 13-month extension of unemployment insurance. More…
Elections and the markets, avoid silly data-mining charts edition
Posted by Cardiff Garcia on Nov 01 18:42. Comment.Every time there’s an election in the US, analysts and pundits start data-mining through previous political cycles to predict what could happen next to the markets.
This kind of thing is more prevalent before presidential elections, More…
The replacement of Larry Summers
Posted by Gwen Robinson on Sep 24 13:00. Comment.The bitching and moaning in Washington about a likely replacement for Obama economic adviser Larry Summers is all getting a bit — well, bitchy. Lex on Friday notes speculation about potential candidates to replace Summers, More…
The problem of excess savings
Posted by Cardiff Garcia on Sep 21 18:22. Comment.What to make of the excess savings (aka boatloads of cash) that remain on US corporate balance sheets?
In trying to answer this question, economist Rebecca Wilder has used data from the Fed’s latest flow of funds report to update the following graph, More…
In case of interest: Obama vs hedgie
Posted by Cardiff Garcia on Sep 20 22:03. Comment.The Washington Independent on Monday published an excellent summary of Barack Obama’s town hall to discuss the economy, which included this exchange between the president and a hedge fund manager:
The WSJ’s Washington Wire adds that Obama pledged he would push for carried interest to be taxed like income instead of capital gains. More…
Watch President Obama’s speech on the economy
Posted by Cardiff Garcia on Sep 08 19:00. Comment.Starting at 2:10pm, EDT.
Related links:
El-Erian: Judging Obama, Geithner and Goolsbee – FT Alphaville
Obama to unveil new stimulus plans – FT
El-Erian: Judging Obama, Geithner and Goolsbee
Posted by Guest writer on Sep 08 15:55. Comment.Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer at PIMCO, looks ahead to today’s American policy announcements
The US Administration will seek today to regain the economic policy initiative. More…
The audacity of hope
Posted by Joseph Cotterill on Sep 08 12:08. Comment.The power of a newswire.
The stupidity of a market.
The nostalgia for stimulus:
That’ll be the FTSE 100 flying — and taking US stock futures with it — in response to this newswire piece, More…
No, Steve, it’s not like when Hitler invaded Poland
Posted by Stacy-Marie Ishmael on Aug 16 14:20. Comment.Today in private equity hubris – Blackstone chairman Stephen Schwarzman on Obama’s tax policies (via Newsweek):
“It’s a war,” Schwarzman said of the struggle with the administration over increasing taxes on private-equity firms. More…
It’s Wall Street reform action day
Posted by Tracy Alloway on May 06 12:20. Comment.Thinking of waving a flag for capitalism outside the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday?
Showing off your newly-acquired Rolex in Wall Street favourite Ulysses?
Or perhaps driving your Porsche Boxster down Lower Manhattan. More…
Dear Wall Street: join me, or else
Posted by Joseph Cotterill on Apr 22 17:44. Comment.President Obama kicked off the battle to get financial reform passed through the Senate on Thursday, with a nifty little speech on Wall Street.
Rather timely, just as the backlash against SEC v. Goldman was gathering pace. More…
[Abacus] This CDO is a Democrat
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Apr 19 08:20. Comment.The politicisation of the Goldman Sachs fraud suit: Interactive Exhibit A.
Go to www.Google.com and type in “Goldman Sachs SEC.”
Look to the right-hand side — sponsored links. See anything interesting?
Bloomberg reports that the Democratic Party is currently running a link to the below advertisement alongside Google searches for “Goldman Sachs SEC.” More…
Really Bove-erred over Volcker
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jan 25 15:40. Comment.First, the Volcker rule was going to be good for banks like Goldman Sachs.
Now, it’s going to cause an almighty market crash.
What’s more, Barack Obama is like Hugo Chavez; The rich are being prevented from being enriched; More…
The background to the Volcker rule
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jan 25 10:29. Comment.Because background briefings for the media are fun, and interesting, and something that the public don’t often get to see, here’s the transcript of the press rundown for the Volcker rule unveiled last week. More…
The bank problem in a single chart
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jan 25 08:55. Comment.In the wake of Obama’s dramatic financial reform proposals, released last week and aimed at breaking up the biggest banks, Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid is reprinting an updated version of one of his most controversial charts: More…
CDS report: Bonds hold firm while CDS retreat
Posted by FT Alphaville on Jan 23 15:32. Comment.Markit’s Gavan Nolan wrote this CDS report
The decade began with the optimists in the ascendancy, at least in the financial markets. Recoveries are under way in the major economies, with Q4 2009 GDP figures expected to show solid growth. More…
That Goldman hit
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jan 22 12:15. Comment.Goldman Sachs, and others, say proprietary trading accounts for circa 10 per cent of net revenues – though that may vary considerable from quarter to quarter. Here, however, is an interesting datapoint. More…
Obama the communist!
Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Jan 22 11:50. Comment.Oh dear, oh dear.
Some members of the right-leaning American punditariat are not best pleased with Obama’s Glass-Steagallesque ‘Volcker rule’ announcement at all.
Take CNBC’s Dennis Kneale, who made his feelings known via Twitter on Thursday. More…