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’A few more analyst reactions to the FOMC statement
We covered some of this in our Markets Live chat and would refer you to the transcript, but we’re posting some of the more interesting analyst reactions below.
Most focused on the Fed’s targeting the longer end of the curve more than anticipated and on what today’s announcement might imply for mortgage finance,
The City earnings game
We all know that selective disclosure of price-sensitive information – for example, guiding down analyst forecasts – is frowned upon by the regulatory authorities in this country.
And that creates a problem for listed companies.
Analysts: the good, the lucky and the unable
Some analysts are better than others. That much we know.
But how to distinguish between — and capitalise on — those who ‘get lucky’ with their last calls and those who have a genuine tendency to make ‘accurate’ recommendations?
A new academic paper,
Analysts know how (if not when) to hold’em
Analysts, as we’ve noted, tend to be an optimistic bunch — except in the aftermath of recessions, when they tend to overcompensate.
But their bearishness, when it finally does arrive, doesn’t always translate into the expected “sell”
Morgan Stanley really likes its new iPad
June 8 2010 — Morgan Stanley says iPad will reshape netbook market.
August 20 2010 — Morgan Stanley downgrades Blackberry-maker RIM.
August 23 2010 — Perhaps not coincidentally… Morgan Stanley unveils new iPad app for sending research to clients.
The price of oiler realpolitik
Here’s an AIM-listed enigma to ponder on Monday.
Life is looking rather good if you’re a London-listed oil mid-cap at the moment. Kind of less so if you’re out to buy one. Why?
As Oriel Securities’ Richard Rose noted on Monday,
UBS analysts are mostly green, visualised
Sighted in the Long Room — one almighty visualisation of UBS analysts:
(Click to enlarge)
The network diagram was created earlier this year by Toby Segaran, an all-round techno wonk. It’s a continuation of a speech he gave at last year’s Web 2.0 Expo — about visualising financial data.
Just don’t check their pockets, then
Since a bit of levity on Friday afternoon never hurts*, we pass along the following anecdote-cum-lesson from The Psy-Fi Blog:
Every morning before he left home the illusionist James Randi used to take a piece of paper and write on it “I James Randi will die today”.
About that Lehman call…
It’s no secret that equity analysts tend to be an optimistic bunch, and that they didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory with their forecasts leading into the financial crisis.
Some decidedly egregious examples have now been posted by Economics of Contempt,
[Outlook 2010] How will analysts fare?
Analysts will do better in 2010, say Citi analysts strategists.
The group, Citi notes, had something of an annus horriblis in 2009 — struggling to make the right calls at key turning points.
Here’s the thrust of the argument put forth by Citi’s European Portfolio Strategy team:
Goldman’s blow-out Q2, the analysts react
There are two clear takeaways from the analyst reaction to Goldman’s blow-out second-quarter results on Tuesday.
Firstly, while the results were pretty impressive, there’s a lot of uncertainty about where future profits will be coming from.
Analysts: These ladies aren’t for turning
Citi has an interesting note out on Friday, examining the ability of analysts to predict turning points in the market.
We’ll save you the suspense of the overall conclusion: analysts are, on aggregate,
Study finds analyst tips don’t move prices
Analysts’ “buy” and “sell” tips have almost no effect on share prices, according to research that confounds long-held beliefs over the influence of stock-pickers and calls into question investors’ and banks’ need to pay for their services,
Don’t trust the data
Still blaming analysts for being inaccurate, slow or incapable or predicting anything remotely of use? Pah, so 2008.
Blame the data instead.
The American Finance Association has a very interesting paper on the subject,