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’The descent into global C-H-A-O-S
It’s Monday and time for another helping of doom and gloom from Albert Edwards.
This week SocGen’s ‘strategiste global’ is in particularly bearish mood, arguing that all of the ingredients are now available for a meal of global chaos.
These are the voyages of the starship QE2
This is a Vulcan death grip:
And according to SocGen’s über-bear Albert Edwards, that’s exactly the state in which equity investors find themselves in now.
Or as he puts it (our emphasis):
The current situation reminds me of mid 2007.
Everyone’s an Albert these days
Accept no imitations.
And this one’s got a nice tinge of I-told-you-so about it. The title of the latest missive from SocGen perma-bear Albert Edwards:
They laughed. Oh how they laughed.
Albert — who has been warning about massive global deflation since,
For Edwards, the Japanese lesson still holds…
FT Alphaville Albert Edwards.
Nothing to do here but quote as much of his latest Global Strategy Weekly Posts as we can without the SocGen strategist complaining…
We are at the most dangerous stage in the Ice Age – the ‘post-bubble cycle’.
A flashing red light from the ECRI
This will have bears like David Rosenberg and Albert Edwards licking their lips.
The Bloomberg chart below — which you can click to enlarge — shows the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) weekly indicator:
Notes from the deflationary quicksand
Deflationary quicksand… We will all end up Japanese… Collapsing houses of cards…
Yes, it’s another missive from SocGen’s perma-bear Albert Edwards, who on Thursday developed some recent riffs on deflation a tad further:
ECRI watching with Edwards
A second helping of bearishness on Tuesday, courtesy of Albert Edwards.
The Soc Gen strategist is worried about the recent slump in the US Economic Council Research Institute (ECRI) leading indicator.
On the edge of a deflationary precipice…
The world should be discussing deflation, not inflation. The world should be dicussing buying 30-yr govts, not continually wondering like a stuck record where the first rate hike will appear.
Albert Edwards agrees with the depressionistas at RBS.
The equity market rally is nearing its end
That’s the view of Morgan Stanley’s Teun Draaisma, who reckons the much feared tightening is about to begin in earnest.
The trigger according to the strategist will be a strong US payroll reading on Friday and a change in Federal Reserve language at its meeting later this month.
Devaluing the yuan
Continuing with Thursday’s China theme, SocGen’s Albert Edwards has been looking at the emergence of a trade deficit in the People’s Republic and the implications.
The backstory here is the recent, surprise announcement from Premier Wen Jiabao and Commerce Minister Chen Deming that China would record a trade deficit in March – the first since April 2004.
The recovery cannot be sustained
Just when we were wondering what to write about, the latest Global Strategy Weekly from Albert Edwards lands.
The Soc Gen strategist has been poring over last week’s Flow of Funds report from the Federal Reserve…
Surely he can’t still be bearish?
So began the presentation of Albert Edwards at SocGen’s ‘Alternative Strategy’ event at London’s Marriott Hotel Grosvenor Square on Tuesday.
In front of a packed Westminster Ballroom — we reckon around at least 400 people turned up — Edwards revealed,
Festive reading
Looking for something to read over Christmas? Or perhaps you are struggling to find a pressie for the banker in your life?
Well, FT Alphaville can help — with a little assistance from SocGen strategist Dylan Grice.
‘Deep down, even the fiercest equity bulls must be doubting themselves’
The latest missive from the dynamic SocGen strategy duo, Albert Edwards and Dylan Grice, landed in the FT Alphaville inbox on Tuesday, and it’s a stunner.
Some of the top lines from the presentation — titled:
Deep 2010 downturn could yet trigger trade war and yuan devaluation
The perfect riposte to Monday’s equity market rally has arrived: the latest Global Strategy Weekly from Soc Gen’s Albert Edwards.
And while the headline rather gives things away, here are some selected highlights for all the bears out there.
A safe day for the bears…
First out of the cave – SocGen’s Albert Edwards. From the strategist’s latest Global Weekly:
One of the key lessons from Japan’s lost decade is that investors’ confidence that the
authorities are in control of events will ultimately drain away.
Bears, keep the faith
It is not much fun being a bear at the moment with seemingly everything going up – except the US dollar. But there is still hope, according to Soc Gen’s Albert Edwards.
In his latest Strategy Weekly he draws our attention to the recent performance of the Baltic Freight index,
This bear is not for turning
Albert Edwards is back!
It is a month since we last heard from the Soc Gen strategist and he is in typically combative form in his latest Global Strategy Weekly. Indeed, he has a very simple message for all those commentators puzzled by the fact that both government bond and equity markets are rising — don’t be.
Albert Edwards, uber bull? (not quite yet)
There is much hope out there that the current moderation of recessionary forces is a prelude to recovery. I believe that the current market situation is like late 2001/early 2002. Any relapse in activity will cause a catastrophic loss of confidence.
Criminal negligence, or just insane?
Going about his usual innocent business (predicting a 10 per cent GDP shrinkage peak to trough; a Great Unwind 2, as massive global external imbalances produce a major liquidity squeeze amongst emerging markets and other producers of commodities),
Albert Edwards allegedly spots “green shoots”
We assume this is a spoof, or something.
Someone’s nicked all the SocGen pixels that go in to making up Albert Edward’s regular Global Strategy Weekly, complete with date and contact details. But the sub-title gives it away:
Albert Edwards LOL China
As the debate over how bad things in China are rages on, growing Sino-sceptic Albert Edwards offers his two pennies on the country’s latest statistics.
Well, to be accurate, he laughs out loud at them:
When two bears fell out
An investment operation is one which, upon through analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.
That’s a quote from legendary value investor Benjamin Graham and it features prominently in James Montier’s first piece of 2009.
A day for apologies
No, not from Sir Tom McKillip!
Here’s a sincere one:
But what of that technical bear market rally I was looking for back on 23 October? Has the awfulness of events given me a case of analyst amnesia? Unlike some others in the market we do not pretend we are always right,
Montier: ‘Analysts are rubbish’
Seemingly everyone, on both sides of the Atlantic, is now taking about recession. Even Mervyn King.
So why, asks SocGen’s James Montier in his latest issue of Mind Matters, is the investment research
Edwards: “The Vortex of Debility”
Vortex
1. a whirling mass of water, esp. one in which a force of suction operates, as a whirlpool.
2. a whirling mass of air, esp. one in the form of a visible column or spiral, as a tornado.
3. a whirling mass of fire,