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’Questions to which the answer is yes, AIB credit event edition
Has a credit event occurred with respect to Allied Irish Banks’ buyback of sub debt?
YES (says Isda)
Did this credit event occur on June 9, 2011?
YES
Is this anything more than a mild speed-bump in the bailing-in of Irish bank bondholders?
NO
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Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Thursday,
- Kingfisher says group retail profit up 20 per cent in Q1; warns of more challenging Q2 — statement.
- New World Resources says investor willing to sell shares to enhance liquidity ahead of possible FTSE 100 entry — statement.
Allied Irish coupons: still alive
Some palaver in the market on Tuesday that one or the other of a) Ireland or b) Allied Irish Banks had missed a coupon payment…
It’s not true. On either count.
But there’s an interesting anatomy to the rumour.
Irish mortgages everywhere – but not a one to collateralise with?
So. This is an interesting chart:
Those are covered bond details for AIB Mortgage Bank, part of troubled Irish bank, AIB. Focus for a second on the two overcollateralisation figures — which are basically the degree to which the bank’s covered bonds are overstuffed with assets.
An update on NAMA
The National Asset Management Agency update from the Irish government is out and…
Well, we wouldn’t want to deprive you of the gory details so here they are (our emphasis):
The Chairman of the National Asset Management Agency [NAMA],
AIBaiting
Irish bank bail-out outrage du jour comes courtesy of Guido Fawkes.
The British political blogger has unearthed a purported copy of Anglo Irish’s foreign bondholders as of October 15 — quite a feat given Ireland’s finance minister Brian Lenihan once said he was unable to do the same.
[Ireland's Bad Bank] A primer [updated]
Interested in Ireland’s new bad bank? Well, here’s a timeline for Tuesday’s announcement and a handy list of things to look out for. All times UK.
(H/T a leading City banks team)
4.30pm – A short press release is expected from the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA).
[Ireland's Bad Bank] Allied Irish Apocalypse
And to think NAMA was meant to restore confidence in Ireland’s banking system. Not in the short term, perhaps.
Allied Irish Bank executives must have had a fun weekend, having apparently exhorted the government not to raise haircuts on the loans they want to send to its bad bank — enough to leave AIB requiring government recapitalisation.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
- Mike Ashley’s Sports Direct is considering bid for Blacks Leisure – statement and statement.
- AIB reports FY operating loss of €2.4bn – statement.
- Lyondell said to reject $14.5bn Reliance bid – Bloomberg.
AIB lifts bad loans by €1bn
Bad loans at Allied Irish Banks this year will be €1bn ($1.5bn) more than previously estimated, it announced on Wednesday, although the lender said most of these bad loans were in a portfolio that is likely to be bought by the country’s “bad bank”,
CDS report: US data dent sentiment
Gavan Nolan of Markit wrote this CDS report
European credit indices tightened slightly today, a creditable performance given the volatility in equity markets. The Markit iTraxx Europe index was about 1bp tighter at 82bp,
Shareholder activism – a challenge
At Fortis, the Belgians threw shoes and sang the Marseillaise.
At ArcelorMittal the French stormed the building and threw smoke bombs.
And at AIB yesterday, the Irish were chucking eggs.
[Ireland's Bad Bank] AIB: the stress-test arms race?
AIB statement, emphasis FT Alphaville’s:
On 12 February Allied Irish Banks p.l.c. (“AIB”) [NYSE: AIB] announced an agreement with the Irish Government in relation to the proposed recapitalisation of the bank.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- Allied Irish Banks Plc to raise further E1.5bn on top of existing E3.5bn plan through asset sales, further equity issuance if necessary – statement.
- UBS sells Brazilian financial services business UBS Pactual for $2.5bn to BTG Investments – statement.
AIB suffers apparent property fraud
What is it about Irish banks?
The Serious Fraud Office has commenced an investigation, together with City of London Police, into an alleged fraud on the Corporate Banking Department of Allied Irish Banks Plc.
CDS update: What Obama bounce?
This CDS report was written by Markit’s Gavan Nolan
Hope, optimism, expectation and, of course, change. Today’s inauguration of President Obama has generated a torrent of positivity in the media, with those four words unavoidable.
AIB warns on profits
Allied Irish Banks issued a profits warning as it more than doubled provisions for future bad loans to reflect the deteriorating domestic property market. The bad debt provision in the year to the end of December is now expected to be about €950m (£766m),
The deteriorating picture at AIB
Shares in Allied Irish Bank were down 17 per cent on Wednesday morning after the bank warned on profits for the second time this year. Shareholders can now expect earnings of just €1.20 in 2008 versus the €1.85-1.90 figure the bank suggested back in July (cut from €2.06 in 2007).
Ireland’s systemic banking problem
The Irish government no doubt feels vindicated, having moved first in Europe to provide overt protection for its banks.
The blanket guarantee for depositors caused howls of protest from other European countries at the time – but given the subsequent regulatory scramble,
Chrysler, AIB debt deals delayed
The credit crisis deepened on Tuesday as key interbank rates in the US and Europe showed conditions in the money markets had hit all-time lows, while two big debt deals were delayed due to deteriorating investor sentiment.