[US Elections 08] Barack Obama wins Virginia, California – and the White House

23:00 on November 4 2008 – the United States has a new president elect, Barack Hussein Obama.

So say the networks. So says FT Alphaville.

Good night.

[US Elections 08] Electoral vote tally – Obama 207, McCain 129

As at 22:05 ET, via Reuters:

A presidential candidate must get 270 electoral votes out of a possible 538 to win the U.S. election. The 538 members of the Electoral College, not the popular vote, actually elect the president of the United States. More…

[US Elections 08] As Obama sweeps Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Mexico…

John McCain would have to win (the die-hard Democrat states of) Oregon, Washington or California to score the presidency now.

Related links:

“President Obama” – Slate

We’re Calling It: Obama More…

[US Elections 08] Obama wins Ohio, White House in sight

Barack Obama appears to have defeated John McCain in Ohio, one of the single most important states in the US election and the battleground that has correctly predicted the victorious candidate since 1964. More…

[US Elections 08] 270, 538, swing states, electoral college – what does it all mean?

Confused by the jargon of the US Presidential election? Here’s a primer, prepared by reporters in the FT’s Washington bureau (emphasis FT Alphaville’s):
American voters do not directly elect their presidents, More…

[US Elections 08] Obama vs McCain – how the networks see it

In the US, the major television networks are like the gatekeepers of electoral results; as polls in various states close, network talking heads jostle to make ‘calls’ on potential electoral outcomes. These calls are quite often wrong (“Kerry wins in 04!”), More…

[US Elections 08] McCain gets Kentucky and South Carolina, Obama claims Vermont

Reasonably reliable results so far:

McCain – Kentucky, South Carolina

Obama – Vermont

Significantly less reliable projections:

McCain – Tennessee, Oklahoma

Obama – Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, More…

[US Elections 08] Dirty dirty exit poll data, round one

It’s bad for you. It’s unreliable. It’s totally irresistible. Yes, it’s exit poll data.

Via HuffPo:

The states looking good for Obama:

Florida: 52 percent to 44 percent
Iowa: 52 percent to 48 percent
Missouri: More…

[US Elections 08] Gideon Rachman doesn’t give a twit

Gideon Rachman is tweeting the US election – sort of.

His latest tweet suggests he’s less than impressed with the medium:

This is possibly the most moronic form of journalism i have ever done. And thats saying something. More…

[US Elections 08] Presidential data mining, redux

Yes, yes, we know – we’ve just declared attempting to find a method to the madness of market performances based on political metrics to be an exercise in futility.

But waiting for polls to close is about as exciting as watching paint dry, More…

[US Elections 08] Further reading, White House edition

A round-up of interesting election-related coverage from the blogosphere,

- Pr(Sarah Palin=President)>Pr(John McCain=President)?

- Why venture capitalists should support McCain

- Or indeed, More…

[US Elections 08] Obama, the markets and the perils of presidential data mining

FT Alphaville’s search for informed markets-oriented commentary on the US presidential election was threatening to result in generalised swearing at the futility of it all – until we came upon this post from uber-blogger Paul Kedrosky, More…

[US Elections 08] Pink Picks, White House edition

Comment, analysis and other election-related offerings from the FT and FT.com:

Jurek Martin: Good evening Mister President

Tuesday could be a long night – or a very short one – but the game plan is simple. More…

[US Elections 08] Intrade odds favour Obama (shock)

If Intrade’s website crashes today, certain members of the FT’s NY office (including this reporter) would be at least partially responsible. Compulsive refreshing…

Charts of the odds on Obama and McCain as at 14:10 ET, More…

[US Elections 08] Market talking heads: election means nada, redux

Nothing in the short term, at least.

Below assorted opinions on the presidential race from a host of North American (finance-related) talking heads.

Confidence is an intangible that in these times we have found is crucially important for the proper functioning of our financial markets and the economy. More…

[US Elections 08] Why you should ignore exit polls

Five Thirty Eight – a site that “combines semi-professional expertise with a dollop of eye-witness reporting,” according to the FT’s John Gapper – has neatly summarised Mark Blumenthal’s comprehensive dissection of the media’s reliance on exit polls as an electoral indicator. More…

[US Elections 08] “We are not sure if an election result has ever mattered so little to the markets.”

Jim Reid, at Deutsche Bank:

Today we have the small matter of the US Presidential election. We are not sure if an election result has ever mattered so little to the markets. Whoever gets elected will More…

[US Elections 08] First blood to Obama

FT Alphaville’s perennially underslept reporters Sam Jones and Stacy-Marie Ishmael will provide running commentary on the 2008 Race to the White House, the outcome of which will be decided today. Please email interesting election-related links, More…