Jennifer Thompson
Bleak house (prices)
Whatever sellers wish to believe about the value of their property, here’s a reality shot ahead of a bleak housing midwinter courtesy of Rightmove’s latest house price index (click to enlarge):
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- AXA and AMP join forces to make $13.1bn offer for AXA Asia Pacific Holdings — statement.
- BHP Billiton to complete $13bn buyback programme — statement.
- Persimmon says did not experience normal autumn increase in visitor levels — statement.
The return of Godzilla QE – this time it’s unneighbourly
Willem Buiter is back — with more criticism of Japan’s monetary policies.
They are, Citi’s chief economist writes on Friday in an 88-page note, simply too small to fight off that decade-long deflation.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
Philip Stephens: Turkey’s challenge to Old Europe
Turkey’s president Abdullah Gul was in London this week. He picked up the prestigious Chatham House prize from the Queen and had talks with David Cameron.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
Analysis: Beijing’s elevated aspirations
If Bismarck were in Beijing today, he would say this was our nightmare,” says Shi Yinhong, an international relations scholar at Renmin University in Beijing,
UK inflation taster
Some comment ahead of the Bank of England’s Inflation Report later on Wednesday.:
From BarCap, on how the market might react:
All told, we expect little difference from the August Inflation Report.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Wednesday’s FT,
Martin Wolf: The Fed is right to turn on the tap
The sky is falling, scream the hysterics, the FT’s Wolf notes: the Federal Reserve is pouring forth dollars in such quantities that they will soon be worthless.
Taking the temperature on housing
From the latest monthly survey of housing by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) — highlighting the direction of change for house prices:
But wait — Rics also reports that while there was a drop in new buyer enquiries for the fifth consecutive month,
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Tuesday’s FT,
Gideon Rachman: The G20’s seven pillars of friction
As the leaders of the world’s biggest powers gather for a Group of 20 summit, their South Korean hosts talk hopefully of the organisation as a “steering committee of the world”.
Dylan Grice vs Brics
Something from Société Générale’s Dylan Grice (and something of a reply to his SocGen colleague Albert Edwards), who recently indulged in the “mugs game” of forecasting capital gains in world equity markets,
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Monday’s FT,
Clive Crook: Obama can cut a deal on taxes
To pass legislation in the next two years, Barack Obama and the new Republican-controlled House of Representatives will have to work together,
RE-ally good news?
Readers will have heard the case against real-estate and commercial real-estate investments. But here, courtesy of Patrick Moonen of ING IM, is a more optimistic view on Wednesday:
Real estate outperformance could continue in 2011.
Wanting (and waiting) to sell
If you’re trying to sell a house anywhere between Berwick-upon-Tweed and St. Ives, you could be waiting a rather long time.
That’s what Hometrack, which analyses the UK housing market, has concluded from their monthly housing survey.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Monday’s FT,
Analysis – Credit markets: Paper weight
Gary Lieb can barely stand it. The broker at Apple Mortgage in Manhattan has never seen such cheap borrowing rates on housing loans.
Mortgage lending… falters
More UK double-dip food for thought, this time courtesy of the Bank of England.
The Bank’s lending data for September show net mortgage lending stalling (click to enlarge the chart):
Whilst total net lending to individuals increased by £0.4bn,
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
Philip Stephens: Obama speaks truth about power
Barack Obama’s crime has been to see the world as it is rather than as many Americans would like it to be,
Anyone for a double-dip in UK house prices?
And the UK housing market pain continues…
Following Monday’s news that UK mortgage approvals fell to an 18-month low in September, comes Thursday’s Nationwide house price index, showing that prices fell 0.7 per cent in October.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
Analysis: World economy – Some enchanted easing
Quantitative easing is the ugly and much disputed name for an ugly and much disputed monetary tactic,
Introducing… the Sammy scheme
Why is Pimco’s Bill Gross feeling gloomy today (emphasis ours)?
Wednesday is the day when the Fed will announce a renewed commitment to Quantitative Easing – a polite form disguise for “writing checks.”…….Still,
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Wednesday’s FT,
Simon Schama: Time for the great orator to talk back
History will be kinder to the first two years of Barack Obama’s administration than the electorate next Tuesday,
Hungary: willpower, but no way?
FT Alphaville recently noted the tricky situation Hungary could be getting into vis-à-vis strong demand for emerging market bonds like its own, contrasting with its still-questionable credit fundamentals.
Go on, Treasury: buy dollars
What’s the best way for the US to show commitment to avoiding currency belligerence after pledging its faith at the latest G20 summit?
Answer, courtesy of BNY Mellon’s FX strategist Neil Mellor: it should buy dollars — and help weaken the yen.
Hungary: muddling through the EM tide
Something to bear in mind for all that money flowing into emerging-market bonds lately – there are still some hefty pockets of EM credit risk out there.
Remember Hungary?
Barclays Capital wants you to.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Monday’s FT,
Clive Crook: Health reform weighs down Obama
Almost all Democrats and even some Republicans were sure the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act,
Dylan Grice vs Emerging Markets
Société Générale strategist Dylan Grice is back on the Rudolf von Havenstein trail.
Grice first brought up von Havenstein back in March, noting the Prussian central banker’s penchant for monetising Germany’s debt during the First World War — leading to massive bouts of hyperinflation.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
John Gapper: China’s business elite is free enough
China was introduced to its likely next leader this week when Xi Jinping was named to a top military post at the Communist party’s annual plenum,
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Wednesday’s FT,
Martin Wolf: Britain and America seek different paths
The US and UK have similarities that go beyond speaking the same language: both had huge expansions in household credit;
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Tuesday’s FT
Analysis:
Investment – rainy day funds recast Up until three years ago, they were widely demonised as a possible threat to western security,
Dispatches from Euroland
Forget central government debt, what about local?
Out today — a note by Morgan Stanley’s European economics team, led by Daniele Antonucci, discussing ‘non-central government liabilities and budgets.’
Here’s what they say: