Author archive for

Joseph Cotterill

A mainly CoCo Spanish banks plan

Also a mandatory increase in real estate loan provisions to 45 per cent.

Selected flashes from Spanish economy minister’s press conference at pixel time…
*SPANISH BANKS TO PROVISION ADDITIONAL EU30 BLN, More…

JPMorgan: whale harpooned?

From the bank’s first-quarter 10-q, just out:
Since March 31, 2012, CIO has had significant mark-to-market losses in its synthetic credit portfolio, and this portfolio has proven to be riskier, more volatile and less effective as an economic hedge than the Firm previously believed. More…

The Closer

ROUND-UP

The S&P 500 bounced back after briefly hitting a two-month low. The index closed down 0.67 per cent at 1,354.58 (Reuters). The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now on a six-day losing streak, More…

Bankia, en route to partial nationalisation

The Bank of Spain confirmed late on Wednesday that Bankia’s parent company has asked for a state loan to be converted into shares:
Statement on BFA-Bankia

The board of directors of Banco Financiero More…

And the latest US bank holding companies are…

… a Chinese sovereign wealth fund, its bank-investing subsidiary, and China’s largest bank by assets (which is ICBC).

Click image for the full Fed approval doc:
 
CIC, Central Huijin and ICBC applied to become BHCs as part of taking an 80 per cent stake in Bank of East Asia USA, More…

Oh, Greek moratoria (redux)

EFSF will make €5.2bn payment to Greece – Reuters
Although €4.2bn will be disbursed on 10 May and the rest has been held back because Greece doesn’t need it until June, apparently. Anyway, on that note… More…

Positively Fannie

Total comprehensive income of $3.1bn (net income $2.7bn) vs dividend payments to Treasury of $2.8bn in 2012′s first quarter. Meaning – Fannie Mae hasn’t had to draw from the Treasury to pay back the Treasury for the first time… More…

Oh, Greek moratoria

*Tsipras says must be moratorium on Greece debt payments
That, earlier on Tuesday, was Alexis Tsipras – head of Syriza and current owner of the mandate to form a coalition government (as forlorn as that is now looking). Syriza took second place in Sunday’s elections. More…

The Closer

ROUND-UP

Bank stocks led the S&P 500, which ended mostly flat, up 0.04 per cent to 1,369.58. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.23 per cent at 13,008.53 (Reuters).

Consumer credit shot up in March, More…

‘Loosening’ the memorandum

*VENIZELOS SAYS MUST HAVE TALKS WITH EU PARTNERS ON TERMS
*VENIZELOS SAYS MUST EXTEND TIME OF PROGRAM TO END 2015
*VENIZELOS SAYS GREEKS WANT TO REMAIN IN THE EURO
And on that note…

Assorted slides from a good recent (pre-elections) BNP Paribas presentation on the future of the Greek bailout. More…

The Weekender

This week on FT Alphaville,

- A big debate kicked off about Black-Scholes and models in the crisis.

- Synthetic credit tranche trading made a comeback.

- Oil hedging… did not. For reasons that were unclear. More…

As good as… Moynihan

Spotted by the FT’s Shahien Nasripour in Bank of America’s latest 10-Q filing — a perfect positive trading record in the first quarter:

Related link:
Bond trading surge boosts Wall Street banks More…

Markets Live transcript 4 May 2012

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 15:07 on 4 May 2012. Participants in this chat were: Joseph Cotterill, FT Cardiff Garcia Izabella Kaminska   JCHello.    JCAnd welcome to US Markets Live.  More…

US Markets Live – 10am New York, 3pm London

Join Joseph and Cardiff (and maybe some special London guests) for US Markets Live, starting at 10am New York time, 3pm UK time. Among other things, we’ll probably be talking about this…

Nonfarm payrolls in April — 115,000

Consensus had been 160k. Unemployment rate came in at 8.1 per cent. March payrolls revised up from 120k to 154k though, and February up from 240k to 259k.

Full Bureau of Labour Statistics release below… More…

We refuse to waste a witty headline on Facebook’s S-1

1) It’s a punchy IPO pricing range.

2) Ooh look at the insider seller amounts.

3) Please can this not be all over CNBC for the next month.

4) That’s about it. From the latest S-1 filing:
Facebook, More…

Killing VaR

Hopefully that headline gets your attention for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s latest review of capital rules for banks’ trading books.

There is a lot in it — the Committee has been tinkering with trading books since the crisis exposed serious mismatches between the capital that banks’ models said they needed for trading structured credit, More…

The Sage (or not) of Abbottabad

Is it permitted to invest funds in the stock market, buying and selling shares, for the goal of supporting jihad, or investing some donation-derived funds in stock markets and shares?
The judgment upon this also depends upon the circumstances and regulations of these stock markets. More…

Monte Carlo-simulated sovereign credit

And it’s all free and open source.

Presenting the Public Sector Credit Framework — a quantitative alternative to sovereign and muni credit ratings produced by the agencies. It’s just launched:

wh

It comes from PF2 Securities and Marc Joffe, More…

The Closer

ROUND-UP

US stocks limped into the close. The S&P 500 closed down 0.25 per cent to 1,402 and the DJIA fell 0.08 per cent to 13268. Weak ADP numbers added to the gloom spread by awful European PMI data (Wall Street Journal). More…

Making eurozonians, or not

Huge hat-tip to Paul Kedrosky for this – an eye-catching chart from JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest’s ‘Eye on the markets’ note (click to enlarge):

All the chart does is track how ‘different’ countries are from each other in a range of monetary unions which never existed, More…

No floating Treasuries for you – just yet

Floating Rate Notes

As noted in the February quarterly refunding statement, Treasury believes that there are benefits to issuing floating rate notes (FRNs).  In recent weeks Treasury has received a significant amount of feedback on the topic, More…

The Closer

ROUND-UP

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its highest since December 28, 2007. A strong ISM reading helped push the index to close 13279.32, up 0.5 per cent (Wall Street Journal). The US manufacturing PMI rose to 54.8 in April, More…

Dodd-Franking, to date

April 2012 was a pretty big month in Dodd-Frank Act rulemaking; the SEC and CFTC agreed how to define “swap dealer”, “major swap participant”, et al. under Title VII of the Act, dealing with over-the-counter derivatives. More…

Reading for News Corp shareholders…

Presenting ‘News International and Phone-hacking’ — the report in which a committee of British MPs voted 6-4 to conclude that ’Rupert Murdoch is not a fit person to exercise the stewardship of a major international company’. More…

May Day bank margins

Charts via Nomura’s European bank analyst, Jon Peace:

(T = 1993 in Japan, 2007 in US/eurozone, T = years)

Related link:
The looming crunch de crédit – FT Alphaville (2011)
That was your eurozone lending retreat, More…

The Closer

ROUND-UP

The S&P 500 has posted its first monthly decline since November, closing down 0.8 per cent for April (Bloomberg). Chicago PMI data and small business hiring both showed signs of an economic slowdown in the last month (Reuters). More…

More on secret liquidity inside eurozone secret liquidity

For every 10 euros of the European Central Bank’s now almost €1,200bn of ‘normal’ liquidity supplied to banks, picture one euro of Emergency Liquidity Assistance from national central banks.

Now imagine there’s just under 10 cents within the ‘ELA’ euro which are even shadowier. More…

Finland’s got a [redacted]

‘Greece Pays Finland Collateral Money,’ goes the Bloomberg headline.

Well, that’s broadly true we suppose. Technically, Greek banks which cannot be named have transferred €311m of Greek government bonds which then moved into the custody of an international investment bank which cannot be named which (at some point) will sell them, More…

Markets Live transcript 27 Apr 2012

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 15:03 on 27 Apr 2012. Participants in this chat were: Joseph Cotterill, FT Izabella Kaminska Cardiff Garcia   JCHola rabble    IKhola amigo  More…