Gavyn Davies
[Gavyn Davies] The world’s economic centre of gravity
Danny Quah at the London School of Economics has recently released a complex but interesting article on the world’s economic centre of gravity.
What’s that?
The author defines it as the spot within the globe which represents the “average location”
[Gavyn Davies] What Osborne did today
So what did the Chancellor actually do today to change macro-economic strategy in the UK Budget?
In one important sense, he seems to have done little or nothing. The path for the structural budget deficit has been left almost exactly the same as it was after the 2010 Budget.
[Gavyn Davies] Weekly indicators for the US economy
And, following my earlier post on global growth, here is one on US growth.
Vasileios Gkionakis, my colleague at Fulcrum, has been producing weekly estimates for US GDP growth for several years now, and they have given consistently good signals about the past and future course of the economy.
[Gavyn Davies] The good, the bad and the ugly
At Fulcrum, we scan the behaviour of asset markets each week to make sure that we are not missing what the markets are trying to tell us. It is surprising how often this forces us to focus on a pattern of developments which we might otherwise overlook.
[Gavyn Davies] MPC still split in four directions
The minutes of the Bank of England’s MPC meeting in March released on Wednesday morning show that the committee lines up in exactly the same way as it did last month.
One member (Posen) wants to ease monetary policy,
[Gavyn Davies] Has global economic growth peaked?
Risk assets have not had a great month so far, with global equities now having eliminated most or all of the gains they recorded during January and February.
It is tempting to view recent setbacks as a natural response to the heightened uncertainty which has been caused by an extraordinary combination of exogenous shocks hitting the system.
[Gavyn Davies] Did Her Majesty sign the OBR Act?
I am informed that the Treasury was on tenterhooks last night, waiting for confirmation that the Queen had given the royal assent to the bill which establishes the Office of Responsibility in its final official form.
[Gavyn Davies] A very big day for UK economic strategy
This is a very big day for the UK economy, with the MPC minutes at 10.30am [GMT] and the Budget at 12.30pm, so I am going to kick off with that.
I wrote a commentary on UK macro economic strategy for the FT on Wednesday,
[Gavyn Davies] Further economics reading
Elsewhere on Wednesday,
- Cullen Roche on what really causes hyperinflation.
- Ex maestro Greenspan attacks policy activism in the US.
- Berkeley Prof Brad DeLong says Greenspan is wrong.
- Paul Krugman on why economists disagree about the stimulus…..