Alastair Marsh
Hung out to dry in emerging Europe
Once upon a time foreign ownership of domestic banking sectors was deemed a “rating strength” in central and eastern Europe.
Before the financial crisis, foreign banks had demonstrated their willingness and ability to support their subsidiaries,
Citi’s high carbs diet
It seems like more or less anything can be deemed an asset class these days.
Here’s the latest one from Citigroup analysts: ‘Carbs’. No that’s not McDonalds and Coca Cola, but Canada, Australia,
Looking at the eurozone through a NIIP prism
Whichever way you look at it, the eurozone crisis is ugly.
But looking at the overall indebtedness of peripheral economies instead of focusing solely on their public sector debt offers an interesting perspective on the problem,
Mariano Rajoy – Europe’s quarterback
Europeans tend not to understand American football, not least because the ‘ball’ seems to rarely make contact with the ‘foot’.
But let’s hope Mariano Rajoy, the candidate expected to win Spain’s general election on Sunday,
Everything’s not lost in a lost decade
The dreaded lost decade that is staring the developed world in the face might not be so bad after all. At least according to Citigroup’s glass-half-full equity strategy team.
Lost decades, defined as 10-year periods of painfully slow growth (circa 1 per cent per annum), are always painful for the wider economy but they need not be for equity investors.
Indie v sell-side research and a UniCredit spam alert
Turn on your spam filters. UniCredit is on fire:
This email torrent was prompted by the bank’s decision to merge its loss-making western European equity-research unit with new partners Kepler Capital Markets (a French brokerage and independent provider of equity research).
When Italian bonds trade in zero gravity
The drama in the Italian bond market in recent days has naturally raised a lot of questions, not least as to how sustainable the current financing levels are.
Citi’s rates strategy boffins have been mulling “fair value”
Another day in Europe…
More EU pantomime on Wednesday:
Take one, via Reuters:
Italy was offered aid from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) during the G20 summit at Cannes last week but Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi refused it,
Plotting a disorderly EZ break-up
Will the eurozone survive? If so, in what guise? If not, how will it be broken up and what might the consequences be?
These, among others, are some of the key questions currently occupying the minds of the financial great and good.
If we ran the FTSE 100…
The story so far.
Last week, FTSE Group launched a consultation on the free float rules for its various indices. That followed an outcry from investors concerned about the wave of overseas companies seeking to list on the main market while keeping control out of public hands.
A tale of two stock markets
US equities could be in line for a secular bull market as soon as next year, but European stocks should be handled with care.
That is a synopsis of the latest thinking from Citi. For more details read on:
Vol nightmares unrealised, for now
Here’s something to ponder for the commute home, via Deutsche Bank:
One topic of conversation with investors is why realized volatility has been similar to levels during 2010 (the onset of the European sovereign crisis),
Related party poopers
ENRC could have saved itself $600m and some potential blushes, at least for now.
Instead of asking independent shareholders to vote on a plan to buy the remaining 75 per cent of thermal coal producer Shubarkol from its oligarch founders,
TPG makes it fifteen for Yahoo
Breaking news on Thursday night/Friday morning: TPG Capital enters the fray for Yahoo.
Here’s more from the NYT:
The private equity firm TPG Capital has signed a nondisclosure agreement with Yahoo,
Would you feel three basis points?
Eat your words Senator Tom Harkin.
“Quite frankly, I bet nobody would even feel it,” the Iowa Democrat said on Tuesday in relation to his plan to introduce a US financial transaction tax.
Nonsense,
The WTO dividend
You can say what you want about the achievements of the WTO; it sure is nice to be part of the club.
Certainly that is what the Kremlin will be thinking this morning after Russia cleared the final hurdle to joining the 153-nation trade organisation after 17 years of trying.
And the G20 total returns winner is…
Something to take G20 Cannes delegates’ minds off Greece…
How’s this for evidence that the emerging markets growth story is overblown? Of all the G20 countries, the US would have given you the greatest equity returns over the past year,
Understanding your central banker
If you can tell a little about someone from the books they read, you can tell a lot about them from the books they write, especially if they’re a central banker.
Morgan Stanley economist Spyros Andreopoulos has dipped into the library at the “Global Central Bank” and draws comfort from the number of “depression economics”
FTSE anomalies: who’s your grandaddy?
ENRC, Essar Energy, Ferrexpo and Fresnillo. What do these four companies have in common?
Hmm…they are all commodity players. Yes, what else?
They all have the bulk of their operations in emerging markets.
FTSE asks the free float question
What is the minimum amount of a company’s shares that should be freely floated if that company is incorporated in the UK and wants to join the FTSE’s UK indices?
A simple question, but a contentious one.
Bazooka with cheese
Where would financiers be without metaphors? Let’s take Citi as an example — although we are sure there are worse offenders.
In Tuesday’s FT, Citi’s chief economist, Willem Buiter, called for a bigger ‘bazooka’ to boost the firepower of the EFSF.
Citi: EM rate cutters sheathed
If you were expecting widespread easing of policy rates across the emerging world, think again.
Since the end of August three EM central banks have cut rates — Brazil, Israel and Indonesia – but don’t go expecting much more monetary easing,
A historian’s view of the UK stock market
FT Alphaville has a soft spot for historians.
Not only because of their services to tweed and elbow patches, but also because they offer refreshingly long-term views (a welcome change from the short-termism of many market commentators).