Our friends at the Daily Telegraph sent us into something of spin on Wednesday evening, when they published this:
What they didn’t mention was that the Societe Generale cross asset research study in question was published more than a month prior.
It’s making headlines, so here’s what all the gold at $6,300 fuss is about.
Selected highlights of the latest ‘Popular Delusions’ note from Société Générale’s Dylan Grice:
Central bank hoarding of gold in 1970 ushered in the famous gold bull market.
Elsewhere on Thursday,
- SocGen on how to prepare for the global economic collapse.
- “Is gold going to $6,300?”
- 2009 vs 1982 stock market rallies.
- Kass on the quant bubble.
- Krugman on the unintended consequences of the AIG bailout.
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
John Gapper: How to reinvent China’s growth
Qingdao, where the FT Chinese website this week held its annual forum, is a good place from which to see the changes taking place in China because it is,
The New York Federal Reserve under Tim Geithner “severely limited its ability” to extract concessions from AIG’s counterparties in talks that resulted in $27.1bn of public money being transferred to banks including Société Générale and Goldman Sachs,
Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:13 on 12 Nov 2009. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT (NH) Bryce Elder (BE) NH:Good morning NH:it’s 11:03
The results of the latest MSCI reshuffle are out and they are already having an impact on stock prices.
As was widely rumoured, Ladbrokes has been removed from the MSCI World index, along with upmarket housebuilder Berkeley.
Société Générale, France’s third biggest bank, on Wednesday lowered its profit outlook in the light of the toughening regulatory environment, as it reported Q3 net profits of €426m, continuing its gradual recovery from loss-making territory.
Markit’s Gavan Nolan wrote this CDS report
European credit indices recovered losses from yesterday’s correction amid signs that the major economies are continuing to improve. The Markit iTraxx Europe index was trading around 87bp,
Breaking pre-market news on Wednesday,
- Societe Generale Q3 net doubles on investment bank - statement.
- Bank of Ireland H1 income falls 73 per cent to €162m - statement.
- BNP Paribas still looking at Societe Generale La Tribune newspaper says;
Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:12 on 28 Oct 2009. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT (NH) Miles Johnson, FT (MJ) NH:hey there NH:this is FT Alphaville
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Tuesday’s FT,
Kenneth Griffin: We must overturn the status quo in derivatives
Griffin, founder and CEO of Citadel Investment Group, writes: Following the collapse of Long Term Capital Management,
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Wednesday’s FT,
Martin Wolf: How to manage the gigantic financial cuckoo in our nest
A year ago, at the height of the financial panic, the world yearned for a profitable and confident financial sector.
Out of the parade of European banks to recently raise cash to repay their governments, Alpha Bank’s rights issue on Monday was never really likely to garner much attention outside of Greece.
In many ways the €986m call is merely a variation on a theme already carried forward by the likes of Unicredit,
Bonds do it, stocks do it, even educated credit default swaps do it.
We live in strange times, with virtually every non-zero sum asset having embarked on a dizzy rally, all at once.
Since June, the S&P 500 is up 15 per cent,
Reporting season is underway — look sharp.
The next couple of days will likely set the tone, with sentiment-shaping numbers coming from JP Morgan on Wednesday ahead of third-quarter results from Goldman Sachs and Citi the next day.
Societe Generale’s Dylan Grice, the Robin to Albert Edward’s Batman, has published a fresh bit of research on Friday.
As can be expected of the bearish duo, the note does not disappoint on the bleakness front.
… is something that can be done by buying European banks’ Tier 1 bonds — even hybrid ones — according to Société Générale credit analysts.
The whole thesis is based, firstly, on the idea that under new regulation (the strengthened Basel II,
Société Générale hit the acquisition trail on Tuesday with a €1.4bn ($2bn) war chest after launching a €4.8bn rights issue to repay state aid. In one of his first big strategic moves since becoming executive chairman in May,
European stocks regained momentum on Tuesday boosted by strength in the financial and oil sectors. Bank stocks rose after the European banking sector was upgraded to “overweight” by BofA-Merrill Lynch,
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
- Societe Generale seeks €4.8bn rights offer — Bloomberg.
- Brammer announces rights issue to raise £38.3m — statement.
- Corporate: Tesco, Northern Foods,
Société Générale has appointed a prominent French retailer to spearhead the group’s international growth. Bernardo Sanchez Incera, until this week chief executive of the Monoprix supermarket chain,
From Dylan Grice — Albert Edward’s new alarmist colleague at Societe Generale — on the subject of Chinese bank lending…
The guy’s a natural - a worthy member of the Edwards’ school.
Grice
Details of Banco Santander’s IPO of its Brazilian unit serves as a further reminder that its 74 year-old chairman Emilio Botin is a bit of a shrewdie.
While RBS and Fortis blew themselves up with their ill-timed acquisition of ABN AMRO,
BNP Paribas, France’s biggest bank, is set to launch an early repayment of government bail-out money within months. Baudouin Prot, chief executive, told the FT he wants to begin paying off €5.1bn of hybrid capital placed with the government over the past 12 months before its terms become more punitive next summer.
So much for the UK managing inflation expectations.
That’s from the excellent fixed income team at Deutsche, who note that despite the Bank of England having done quite well in terms of keeping actual inflation close to its 2 per cent target since 1997,
Analysts are “not created equal”, says Lex on Monday, picking up on Friday’s report by the FT’s Sam Jones (formerly of the FT Alphaville parish) about new research suggesting that broker stock picks can help investors outperform most mutual funds.
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
Analysis: Mutual suspicion
Call them mutuals, thrifts, co-operatives, building societies or community banks. Whatever their label, customer-owned financial groups have been hit alongside commercial rivals by a crisis that is highlighting their drawbacks as well as enduring advantages,
Banks will be barred from lucrative French government mandates if they fail to abide by new international guidelines on pay, President Nicolas Sarkozy warned on Tuesday as he unveiled tough domestic rules on rewards for traders.
Leveraged, inverse and commodity ETFs have drawn criticism of late on account of their tendency to incorrectly track the indices and benchmarks they are at first-sight structured to follow.
While professional investors might understand and even expect this sort of mis-performance due to a better understanding of ETF methodologies,
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