Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:11 on 28 Feb 2012. Participants in this chat were: Paul Murphy Bryce Elder/FT
PM
as per usual in the post-Hume era
PM
We do have stuff to discuss this morning
PM
Both on and off market
PM
Market flat as a pancake
BE
Nearly a month of no movement on the FTSE.
BE
We should stop quoting it unless it gets interesting.
PM
We should come back to Worldspreads on that
PM
Flat market = no business for spreadbetters
BE
You’d have thought, yes. Though I’m sure they’re making a killing on the individual oilers.
PM
Their figs are rubbish
PM
But lets come back to that
PM
We want to know how large the 3y long term repo op – scheduled for tomorrow – is going to be
PM
Not sure when the result comes in from the ECB
PM
But you can get your predictions in now on the right
PM
Some may want guidance on likely figures
PM
The market currently runs from E zero to 3 trillion
PM
Here’s Aroop Chatterjee from BarCap
BE
Anagram of Crate Jape Hooter.
BE
And other things, I’m sure.
PM
42% of the respondents expect the take-up in the upcoming 3y LTRO to be in the
EUR450bn-EUR600bn range, while 29% expect it to be in the EUR300bn-EUR450bn
range. Our own expectation, published in the Global Rates Weekly (“The Feb 3y LTRO,
eventually”, February 24, 2012), puts the figure at EUR350bn. Weighing responses by
AUM does not materially change the LTRO distribution.
The survey suggests differences in expectations between euro area and non-euro
area banks: 55% of the banks outside the euro area expect the liquidity take-up to be
in the EUR450bn-EUR600bn range, while only 18% expect it to be in the EUR300bn-
EUR450bn range. By contrast, only 23% of the banks in the euro area expect the LTRO
to be in the EUR450bn-EUR600bn bracket, while 36% expect it to be in the
EUR300bn-EUR450bn range.
Euro area clients (including banks) expect a large liquidity injection by the ECB. All
euro area clients expect an LTRO higher than EUR450bn, while 64% expect it to be
even higher than EUR600bn.
PM
Of course we had this from UBS last week
PM
The internal fat finger at UBS – someone internally went for 3 trillion
PM
Er, haven’t got one immediately.
BE
How about that plastic thing on your desk.
BE
Mineral sands from Mozambique.
Disclaimer: FT Alphaville does not endorse Paul Murphy’s idyllic holiday retreat on the secluded, unspoilt Barra beach near Inhambane, Mozambique, where availability is strictly limited so book now to avoid disappointment. http://kayamj.com/
PM
That’s worth serious money
PM
Everything in Moz worth a fortune now.
BE
Ok – keep the figures coming on the right, please.
BE
We will compile them later. Promise.
BE
In the meantime, since you mention it ….
BE
The Cove insanity continues.
BE
It’s the world’s most valuable 8.5% of a gas field ever.
BE
Times of India story overnight that ONGC and GAIL plan to bid 245p
PM
What was this stock quoted back at New Year?
BE
Um …. sub a quid I think.
BE
And the story’s forced a statement
BE
ONGC Videsh Limited (“OVL”) and GAIL (India) Limited (“GAIL”) (together the “Consortium”) note the recent press speculation and confirm that they are currently participating in the formal sale process announced by Cove on 5 January 2012.
At this stage, no decision has been made by the Consortium whether to make an offer for Cove or the price at which any such offer may be made. Therefore, there can be no certainty that the Consortium will make an offer for Cove, or as to the terms of any offer.
The Panel on Takeovers and Mergers has granted certain dispensations in connection with the formal sale process (detailed in the announcement made by Cove on 5 January 2012) and has confirmed that the 28 day deadline referred to in Rule 2.6(a) of the Takeover Code will not apply to the Consortium in respect of this announcement.
PM
Good scoop for Piyush Pandey of the Times of India
BE
And the backstory here, according to the FT’s M&A top person Anousha Sakoui
BE
Is that the deadline on bids is tomorrow.
BE
I think that’s the second bid deadline
BE
As the first auction won by Shell seems to have missed out the state-owned bidders.
PM
that Times of India piece makes the point that ONGC etc have to get gov nod before bidding
PM
So for Cove to set tight deadlines might not be helpful
PM
Anyway, what’s the market price after all this?
BE
We’re at 238.75p in the middle.
BE
I guess it’s option value from here.
BE
The minimum you’ll get is 220p
BE
So it’s a low-risk punt.
BE
As Atarashī notes, Shell is still considered the default buyer
BE
Though it may not fancy overspending for 8.5% of a field
BE
When other targets exist
BE
Bharat Petroleum, for instance.
BE
Off the top of my head.
BE
The continued Cove frenzy continues to light a fire under the sector.
BE
Phone’s been warm this morning with fans of Bowleven.
Bowleven PLC (BLVN:LSE): Last: 147.25, up 13 (+9.68%), High: 153.00, Low: 133.20, Volume: 6.12m
BE
Story doing the rounds is that there’s a second bidder in the pool.
BE
A sector watcher makes the very fair point that there’s not a first bidder yet.
BE
Dragon Oil’s merely said that they’re looking.
PM
Hey, tell sector watcher to get with the programme
BE
Yeah, this is no time for cynicism.
BE
Anyway, we’ve made all the calls required on Bowleven this morning and didn’t get anywhere useful.
BE
So all we can say is that some interesting punters are buying.
PM
(GB Krona — we can’t add anything specific on Wentworth other than observe it has Tanzania assets. We previously thought it was a golf course)
BE
Oh, and since we’re on it ……. I will note in passing
BE
That there’s some large numbers going round connected to Ithaca Energy
BE
This is a North Sea play
BE
Said it was in bid talks last month.
Ithaca Energy Inc (IAE:LSE): Last: 181.75, down 1.5 (-0.82%), High: 181.75, Low: 178.18, Volume: 38.96k
BE
Some people reckon an offer in the mid 200s. I mention this very much under the definition of RAW.
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
BE
Ok – bored with roulette investments.
BE
Can we go elsewhere now?
PM
Sorry was distracted by complaint email
PM
Cant share it im afraid
PM
Few things we should do at this piont
Pearson plc is the parent company of the Financial Times, publisher of FT Alphaville.
Pearson (PSON:LSE): Last: 1,185, down 19 (-1.58%), High: 1,209, Low: 1,181, Volume: 1.54m
PM
And then we need to draw attention to this….
PM
This isnt a fishing trip like we raid your office
PM
its a trip to the River Test — early May
PM
for some trout fishing
PM
He wants to remain anonymous at the moment
PM
But he’s ready to take a group of AV readers
PM
But there’s only a handful of tickets
PM
So you’ve got to convince us that you deserve one.
PM
Drop us an email: paul.murphy@ft.com
PM
We havent got a sset day yet
PM
But aiming for the mayfly hatch
PM
When all the fish go nuts
PM
Shall we discuss barclays
BE
I’ll alert the lawyer.
BE
So ……… What can we say?
PM
I’m intrigued by this paragraph from the FT story this morning
PM
The bank is now working to establish what went wrong with its tax arrangement. People familiar with the case said Barclays did not agree that the amount in contention totalled £500m.
PM
Here’s the full story: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa810760-6173-11e1-94fa-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1nZsUBpwA
PM
Barc didn’t agree with the 500m figure. Should have been 2 billion, but the Revenue didn’t spot that.
PM
The bank is now working to establish what went wrong with its tax arrangement
PM
As tho: “this was just a mistake that we’re looking to rectify.”
PM
Tax avoidance is part of Barclays DNA
BE
This is one scheme to “ensure the commercial profit arising to the bank from a buyback of its own debt is not subejct to corporation tax”
BE
And a second which “aims to convert non‐taxable income into an amount carrying a repayable tax credit in an attempt to secure ‘repayment’ from the Exchequer of tax that has not been paid.”
BE
Now, I’m no expert on tax law
BE
But I thought the default position of HMRC was that, if it looks fishy, it probably is.
BE
There’s no presumption of innocence.
PM
One thing we can say — Former Citizen Bob must have some fiendishly smart people working on these things
PM
Why did the bank sign up for this code of conduct when they must have known they had so many tax avoidance specialists still on the payroll?
BE
Though it seems unlikely that Barclays is alone.
BE
Deutsche has run the figures on the others.
BE
CT1 impact potentially 10bps for UK domestics
In 2010 and 2011, Lloyds, Barclays and RBS have reported gains on liability
management exercises totalling £3,656m (£1.7bn, £1.1bn, and £0.8bn respectively).
If all of these were retrospectively taxed, the impact assuming
27.5% tax would be £1bn on CT1 and TNAV across the 3 banks. Our understanding
is that Lloyds’ LME will not be affected. We intend looking into
this issue in greater detail in the coming days: we show the potential range
of impacts in the table below for the UK domestics. The LME change is not
dire (some 5‐8bps of core at RBS and Barclays respectively) but is an unhelpful
potential clawback of TNAV and core capital, which may see sub
debt markets trade wider as buybacks become less attractive to banks.
BE
So, Lloyds, we’re looking at a 0.7p hit to TNAV
BE
Bit more comment, I think.
BE
From the ever-excellent Bruce Packard at Seymour Pierce.
BE
We think this is important for the investment case on Barclays for two reasons. Barclays Capital has often been identified by market participants as one of the most aggressive tax structuring businesses – though the bank has never said how profitable this activity is. Barclays Capital RoE has fallen from 13.5% in 2010 to 10.4% in 2011. Secondly, Bob Diamond has brought “citizenship” right to the front of the Chief Executive’s statement. If the bank appears to be acting inconsistently with this citizenship message, management risks alienating retail customers, politicians and regulators. Over the last few years some investment banking talent has learnt that sailing close to the wind is not always the wisest course to steer, due to the risk of fines and damage to their reputations. Others find it harder to change.
BE
Which is the point, of course. Some may think Bob looks a bit of a hypocrite here.
BE
(Which is not what I’m saying. But some may.

)
BE
Anyway, the market’s ignoring it.
Barclays PLC (BARC:LSE): Last: 243.45, down 0.35 (-0.14%), High: 246.75, Low: 240.05, Volume: 10.93m
Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY:LSE): Last: 34.63, down 0.27 (-0.77%), High: 35.32, Low: 34.23, Volume: 41.46m
Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS:LSE): Last: 27.87, down 0.07 (-0.25%), High: 28.53, Low: 27.60, Volume: 25.93m
PM
Have you seen how far this stock has fallen since I landed that fare dodging fine on the DLR????
PM
Have you seen how far?
BE
Er, its up slightly – 539 on the 22nd.
Serco Group PLC (SRP:LSE): Last: 545.50, down 9.5 (-1.71%), High: 572.50, Low: 510.00, Volume: 1.47m
PM
Well it’s weak this morning on the back of these lacklustre figures.
PM
Serco’s #4m man saying anything?
BE
The figures aren’t really awful.
BE
But there was a lot in the price after Capita beat.
PM
But the stock is off 2.3%
BE
Hyman saying challenges in the US and some UK markets, but the spread of the business internationally offers lots of opportunities.
PM
Listen to the markets Bryce
BE
Travel and arrive, Paul. Preferably while holding a valid ticket.
BE
Here’s some comment. Investec.
BE
They cut forecasts. But stay buyers.
BE
Serco has achieved a good out-turn for 2011, helped by acquisitions but set
against a difficult trading environment for public sector outsourcing. We are
reducing our forecast for the current year to reflect significantly higher
interest charges than we had expected, but still expect underlying trading to
pick up in the second half of this year and into next. We are therefore
maintaining our Buy recommendation for the medium term prospects.
BE
Preliminary results. Full year results for 2011 were good and well ahead of the
previous year, with pre-tax profits/EPS rising to £262.2m/39.6p (vs.our
£258m/38.3p and last year’s £231.3m/34.7p). The full year dividend was
increased by 14% to 8.40p (vs. 7.35p).
BE
Trading. The group turned in a solid performance for the full year with revenues
increasing by 7.4% to £4.65bn (vs. £4.33bn) and adjusted operating profits
increasing by 12% to £290.1m (vs. £258.7m). As a result margins increased by
26bp to 6.2% from 6.0%. Results were helped by acquisitions (principally
Intelenet), but the organic growth rate was nonetheless just under c3.5%.
BE
Key ratios. The group maintained its 90% success ratio on rebids and a win rate
of 50% on new bids. Visibility remains high, with the forward order book at the
end of the period standing at £17.92bn (vs. £16.16bn at the start of the year).
BE
Outlook. In the current year we are expecting trading to pick up in the second
half of the year, with the organic growth rate therefore likely to increase in 2013E.
However, we are also adjusting our forecasts for a likely sharp rise in finance
charges for both the current year and next. We are therefore reducing our
PBT/EPS forecasts for the current year to £280.0m/41.39p (vs. £294.0m/43.47p)
and for next year to £312.0m/45.97p (from £332.0m/48.93p). Our PER-based
target price comes down to 620p (from 650p). Whilst it is disappointing to be
reducing our forecasts today, we remain positive on the medium term prospects
for the group and we are maintaining our Buy recommendation.
BE
Of course, that doesn’t factor in your one-man smear campaign against the company.
BE
Which I’m sure will be reflected by the market in time.
BE
Stick with results for a bit?
PM
what’s caught your eye?
BE
Statement read ok. Mixed, but ok at the headline.
GKN PLC (GKN:LSE): Last: 223.30, down 9.2 (-3.96%), High: 236.92, Low: 218.90, Volume: 7.05m
BE
Story seems to be that, while PBT beat, there’s a £15m bump from insurance recovery
BE
And, if you strip that out, acquisition charges are about £3m too high.
BE
It’s all a bit granular and below the line
PM
These quibbled numbers are sound rather small in the scheme of things
BE
Yeah – but it’s a lot of noise to try and work though.
PM
Thought most of their customers were going gangbusters — likes of BMW selling to china etc
PM
Suppose also the stock has hhad a good run recently
PM
ahead of these numbers
BE
And the European car market is awful, by all accounts.
BE
Though their outlook statement is relatively positive.
BE
another year of good progress
BE
Guiding for improvement in all divisions in FY12
BE
To be frank, there’s not much I can see to scare people in this.
BE
Mixed numbers, decent outlook, profit taking.
BE
Will grab some comment to see if it helps.
BE
Ah — Jefferies points out that sellside expectations are a total mess.
BE
GKN’s investor relations website shows that the 14 analysts’ forecasts for FY2012 sales range between £6,357m and £7,213m, with the mean at £6,739m (Jefferies, £6,535m). The 15 forecasts for FY2012 profit before tax range between £462m and £564m, with the mean at £510m (Jefferies, £492m). Needless to say, this implies that it is very difficult to discern precisely what the market expects of GKN in 2012. At this early stage of the calendar year, there may well continue to be quite different assumptions made about global light vehicle production (GKN expects a 5% increase). Indeed, we are reluctant to throw caution to the winds. Against that backdrop, we believe the focus should be on GKN’s performance relative to its major end markets. In that respect, we believe GKN performed well in 2011.
PM
Their IR guy has his work cut out
BE
We believe it clear that the Aerospace and Land Systems divisions – together 38% of 2011 group management sales – promise to make important contributions to GKN’s growth in 2012 and to insulate GKN from any volatility in global light vehicle production. We believe the key point is that in 2011 GKN demonstrated an ability to grow significantly more than global light vehicle production. In 2012 and 2013, GKN will continue to benefit from gains in market share and the introduction of new products, in our view. We may have to take the rough with the smooth during 2012 in terms of the monthly car sales for one or more country or region, but GKN’s valuation – a trailing PER of 10.3x and dividend yield of 2.6% – is still relatively undemanding for a company that so clearly out-performed its automotive end market in 2011, in our view.
BE
Don’t know GKN IR, actually. They want to take some lessons from Shell on how to mind meld.
PM
Dinner party live over on the right
BE
I see the four-bedrooms in that converted hotel on Bayswater are going for £17m. Form an orderly queue.
PM
(efefelipe — is that so. Expensive pad for quasi civil servants)
BE
Though since we’re on the subject
BE
Persimmon results are very good.
BE
Not good in the sense that they’re actually selling many houses.
BE
But good in the sense that they can keep churning cash.
BE
Here’s Davy with the summary.
BE
Persimmon has reported (February 28th) EBIT for FY 2011 of £161.9m, well ahead of our (and consensus) forecast of £152m.
BE
ANALYSIS: Revenue was slightly behind our estimate due to the average sales price slipping 2% year-on-year (yoy), driven by mix effects (due to a greater proportion of first-time buyers). Operating margin in H2 of 10.8% brought the FY margin to 10% (Davy: 9.4%) from 8.2% last year. The group continues to invest in land with 4,300 plots acquired during the year (completions c.9,400), which will drive future margins and returns. Circa 2,000 plots came from strategic land which will further improve margins.
BE
The balance sheet remains in excellent shape with £41m net cash. Management is positive on the outlook for FY 2012, with forward sales up 9.4% yoy to £927.4m and gross margins improving. The group has announced that it will return £1.9bn (£6.20 per share) of cash to shareholders by way of dividends over 9.5 years, from 2013 to 2021.
BE
DAVY VIEW: Persimmon is our top pick in the sector and this excellent set of results reinforces this view. The group ticks all the right boxes in terms of land-bank mix (only 13% impaired, peer group 25%; 44% of land-bank is new land, peer group 30%) and balance sheet (strong net cash position), and it is continuing to invest in land to drive future margins. In addition, the group is much cheaper than its peers and based on its superior returns, deserves to trade at a multiple of book value. We reiterate our ‘outperform’ rating
BE
How long the housebuilders can basically footle in a static market remains to be seen.
BE
But I guess they”ve all been degeared now.
Persimmon PLC (PSN:LSE): Last: 704.50, up 77.5 (+12.36%), High: 750.00, Low: 701.00, Volume: 4.43m
PM
See this that Tony just pinged over
PM
Had missed it last night
PM
HSBC being looked at for Iran related transactions
PM
If you are a bank like HSBC difficult to avoid things like this I guess
PM
HSBC disclosed the new details in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of the bank’s 2011 annual results. HSBC USA provides commercial and consumer banking and operates 461 branches. The bank previously said in securities filings that it was facing inquiries and it had received grand jury subpoenas.
PM
In a statement, an HSBC spokesman said: “The change in the disclosure reflects the fact that the investigations have developed over the course of the year, and we can now say that some form of formal enforcement action is likely and that it may be criminal or civil in nature.”
PM
So it;’s live and real this
PM
said earlier we’d return to that
BE
Down 14% or thereabouts.
BE
Though it’s a mark-down. Volume’s zip.
PM
“Unusual pattern of client trading.”
PM
Maybe the clients are winning
PM
Actually its jsut this flat market
BE
Perhaps they were all long certain oil companies.
PM
And the finance director is off – tho this has NOTHING to do with the rubbish figures.
PM
Seems he won’t move to London.
PM
Based in Ireland, but the finance function is being moved to the “London regulated subsidiary.”
PM
That sounds like an FSA dictat.
PM
But Niall O’Kelly’s not budging.
PM
Maybe he can’t afford a house over here
BE
Just looking at their adverts on Youtube
BE
They’re not as bad as some.
BE
No jet fighters, or women draping themselves over trading terminals.
BE
Just some bloke talking about losing your shirt.
BE
(Not in so many words.)
BE
Right – before we round up in smalls.
BE
No, we’ve no idea what’s happening at Tethys Petroleum.
Tethys Petroleum Ltd (TPL:LSE): Last: 63.00, up 7.75 (+14.03%), High: 65.83, Low: 58.00, Volume: 558.68k
BE
This is a real death or glory play.
BE
And it’d be no surprise if it was for sale.
BE
As everyone seems to think it’s running out of cash
BE
Even after raising $13m at the end of last year.
BE
Production keeps getting kicked back from Kaz
BE
Which should be their self financing bit.
BE
Tajikistan needs a farm-in partner.
BE
Oh, and I think there’s a well test due.
BE
Why the current squeeze ……….. dunno. Sorry.
BE
No liquidity in this thing though. Serious Caveat Emptor territory.
BE
And I think that’ll do for today.
BE
Even if it was to talk about personal finance, benefits cheats and house prices.
PM
I will leave the comments open for a mo for
PM
LTRO competition entries
PM
Don’t go for round numbers.
PM
We’ve already got a crowded trade around 600
PM
thanks for joining us and we will be back tomorrow at 11am
BE
I’m going for €911bn. And if I win I’ll forget to send the prize to myself, as is tradition.
PM
Keep the brilliant mineral sands for myself