There you were, muddling through just like you’ve been told to do for the last four years and all of a sudden people start talking about a way out, a beginning of an end to the stagnation. Apparently there are economic reports that are consistently improving. Slowly but undeniably.

“We don’t have to live to like this forever, you mean?”

We’ve all been through the ringer. Some of us have gained a little extra weight and sprouted some premature white hairs. Some of us have had to give up things and activities we loved. Some of us have downsized our lifestyles substantially. This economy has cost us all something – vacations, cars, jobs and even marriages.

But…

But what happens if the treadmill speeds up beneath our feet?
What if this is for real now after so many stutters and stoppages?
What if people keep getting jobs and giving jobs?
What if the malls and the restaurants and the morning commuter trains start filling up again?

Are you ready for that? Have you done anything over the last few years to set up for that possibility? Or have you spent all this time in the bunker, doing nothing because of “the conditions out there”?
It’s okay if you’ve been in hiding. Or just shuffling through the months with your head down so it couldn’t get chopped off again. We all did a little of that. But you might want to consider rubbing your eyes and coming outside. You might want to consider emerging and shaking off the bunker dust. Because there will be a future after all, gang. And the people who can switch their mindsets the fastest are gonna own that future. Same as it ever was.

Positive implications of a Glencore/Xstrata merger: We would expect a merger between Glencore and Xstrata at a ratio of 3.0 GLEN shares per XTA share to be earnings accretive for Glencore and Xstrata and to lead to an equity valuation for the combined group that is greater than the current weighted average of the two valuations separately. A slightly lower ratio (we estimate 2.8x) would probably be high enough for Xstrata shareholders to accept as modest earnings dilution would be offset by a valuation rerating for XTA shareholders. The merged company would likely then pursue an aggressive, value accretive M&A strategy. Further consolidation in the mining industry should lead to higher valuations for mining equities in general. A Glencore/Xstrata merger should therefore be a game changer for the mining sector overall.

There’s a new blog in town – my MoreLiver’s Daily. Or rather, it’s been around since last July.

http://morelivers.blogspot.com/

Why I emailed you: I believe your team might find the content interesting. It would be an honor to be included in your blogroll

Me: ex-derivatives salesman turned journalist

Topics: macro, markets, derivatives, off-topic
Content: Links to content from blogs, think tanks, researchers, central banks – no news. Also my own views.

Bent: Sceptical – look what they do, not what they say.

Audience: small, but convincing: daily readers SocGen, Governor’s Office of Central Bank of Croatia, several hedge funds and smaller banks, private professional traders, other blogs.

Target audience: people who already have BB, all the news and bank research, but not the time to go through all the blogs.

Sincerely Yours,

Mr. Juhani “MoreLiver” Huopainen

I realise you’re probably bombarded with emails from bloggers looking to promote themselves, but if you had chance to look at our site (http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/) I’d really appreciate it, and I think you’d find it interesting.

For example, we’ve recently debunked the myth about 30% premiums on PSLV implying a shortage, and questionedZH’s remarkably partisan reporting, and I’ve just published a post about how the silver bugs behave in a very cult-like way. We’re also working on a huge project to dispel the “SLV has no silver” myth. Essentially it tracks every gold and silver bar (by number and allocation) in every major holding in the world, which should correct the nonsense spouted about SLV very soon. This project is near completion, and we hope that FT Alphaville might be interested in reporting on it when it’s ready.

I hope you don’t think me too presumptuous in writing to you like this. And if you have any questions about the blog or us or our work, then please let me know.

Best regards,

Jeanne d’Arc
Screwtape Files

I hope you don’t think me too presumptuous in writing to you like this. And if you have any questions about the blog or us or our work, then please let me know.

Best regards,