January, 2012
Further further reading
For the commute home,
- Facebook to file tomorrow morning.
- Is the market getting too quiet?
- US Reits are drawn to subprime securities.
- “Volcker Rule Will Be Bad For European Governments,
Guest post from OWS: Too Big to Fail is Too Big to Ignore
The note below has been prepared by the Alternative Banking Working Group of the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement. As with the prior note published on FT Alphaville, we present it — without comment — as a document for understanding the aims of OWS.
Chinese New Year and the BDI
Should you be worried about the Baltic Dry Index’s recent sharp selloff? Or should you be more worried about developments in China?
We bring this up because there is apparently somewhat of an après-Chinese New Year effect when it comes to the Baltic Dry Index.
Would you join a monetary union like this?
That, essentially, is what many Poles are currently asking themselves.
After all, Poland has been aboard the euro-adoption boat for a long while. Expectations for eurozone entry were so ingrained in the population they even managed to spawn a euro-denominated mortgage binge.
Pre-judging Judge at ENRC
If there was a sense that boardroom tensions at Kazakh miner ENRC were easing, that sense appears to be mis-guided.
Reports that a board meeting this Friday will decide on who is to replace Johannes Sittard as chairman have triggered a fresh outbreak of fuming from the rather opaque ENRC Lobby Group.
The Vix feedback loop, analysed
Are VIX ETNs and Vix-related funds influencing the Vix futures curve?
Has the popularity of Vix trading come to impact wider volatility surfaces, if not the S&P 500 options used to construct the Vix index themselves?
Is the Vix tail wagging the implied volatility dog?
Quick answer:
Introducing Mr Fred Goodwin, former Knights Bachelor…
Some will see this as further evidence that the Daily Mail runs the country….
The Forfeiture Committee has reached a decision.
Sir Fred Goodwin, disgraced, despised loathed, spat upon, former ceo of RBS,
The Italian bid, redux
We’re sticklers for this stuff — but it’s an important point by Societe Generale’s analysts on Tuesday: (click charts to enlarge)
There’s your exosphere-thin trading in Portugal at the moment, incidentally…
The Volcker Rule riddle
There’s no shortage of concerns about the impact that new regulations will have. Basel 2.5 hitting the bond market, the prohibition of ratings under Dodd-Frank hurting the beleaguered mortgage market,
Looking at UK repo trends
We’ve already brought you one collateral crunchy statistic from the Bank of England’s latest monetary and finanical statistics. But here’s another interesting trend from the Bank’s gilt repo and stock lending numbers.
Tinker Bell plots Chime exit
Here’s one of those company statements that demands an instant translation. Guess it’s just ironic that it happens to concern the best-known PR man in Britain….
Chime announces that its chairman has asked the board if he can pursue the possibility of he,
Markets Live transcript 31 Jan 2012
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:09 on 31 Jan 2012. Participants in this chat were: Paul Murphy Bryce Elder/FT PMHi there BE(Murph’s on the phone.)
Tight money UK
Biggest monthly drop in M4 broad money since data began in 1982, biggest monthly drop in consumer credit since data began in 1993… (charts via the Bank of England)
It’s curious. This is technically a key yardstick for success in quantitative easing.
JC Flower’s UK boss fined and banned for fake invoice scheme
Extraordinary, this — so we’ll just slam up the details from the FSA:
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) has today fined Ravi Shankar Sinha £2.867 million for fraudulently obtaining £1.367 million for himself from a company owned by a private equity fund advised by JC Flowers by means of a fictitious invoicing scheme.
The biggest company you’ve never heard of
Unless you’re an affluent woman who’s into yoga. Or possibly an image-conscious man into running.
Or a short seller.
These types of people tend to have heard of clothing retailer LuLuLemon.
But,
‘Alles klar, Frau Kommissar’
Maybe not so triumphant, then?
Unfortunately none of our resident German speakers are in the house, but the story seems to be saying that Merkel’s success at securing a fiscal pact between 25 of the 27 EU member states is maybe not so great after all,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Tuesday,
- The million dollar mailman.
- China’s secret province, part II.
- Of human bond-age.
- Eurozone crisis, charted.
- Could intervention derail the yen?
- Bitcoin:
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and more from Tuesday’s FT,
Gideon Rachman: Davos consensus ‘under siege’
Shocking as it may seem, the assorted bankers, businessmen, oligarchs and autocrats who descend on Davos each year are not motivated principally by altruism,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
– BSkyB upbeat with H1 figures – story
– ARM year end numbers – statement
– Flat profits at Ocado – Reuters
– Dixons boss to defect to Apple — Sharecast
– Indian tax update from Essar Energy – statement
– “Rival steps”
Further further reading
For the commute home,
- An argument that weak labor demand is the primary explanation for prolonged unemployment duration.
- Felix Salmon on why bondholders of Greek debt would be better off lobbying the troika directly.
Are equity analysts getting better at their jobs?
That’s a stretch, but they’re having an unusually good earnings season thus far:
Some commentary from Nomura now that companies representing half the S&P 500 market cap have reported:
Although those companies that have missed or beaten the analysts’ consensus predictably garner the headlines,
A (temporary?) return to frugality
Toldjaso.
That’s the message of a note from RBC economists about this morning’s personal income and outlays report for December.
Having warned throughout the second half of last year that US consumption fuelled by a decline in savings was unsustainable,
On austerity and political suicide
Governments across Europe can breathe a deep sigh of relief. Even the unlucky few who can’t convince Ms. Merkel to carry their standard on the campaign trail may not be brutalised at the polls by vengeful electorates beaten down by austerity.
The Portugal enigma
Something to note about these Portuguese bond prices… (via Reuters)
(Other than that they dropped like nothing else on Monday)
The difference between the bid price and the ask price — a proxy of sorts for how liquid the bonds are — is enormous,
The missing GDP
If you’re keen for yet another post comparing the US recovery against prior editions, we think this table sent by Credit Suisse on Friday is worth a quick look:
It shows the average contribution to real growth of each GDP subcomponent in the first ten quarters of the last five recoveries,
Risk on/risk off is changing
Standard Chartered’s Priyanka Kishor has spotted an interesting new development in correlations.
As has been well documented, since the 2008 crisis, ‘risk off’ market temperament has strongly coincided with dollar inflows.
Canadian banks 1, Australian banks 0
Fitch has put Australian banks on ratings watch negative, while affirming Canadian banks’ ratings. As Fitch points out in an accompanying report, both countries’ major banks are among the few such institutions rated AA and have many similarities.
Guest post: While Rome is burning
From Alberto Saravalle, managing partner at Bonelli Erede Pappalardo
_______
What happens to M&A while Rome is burning? In the past few months Italy has been in the midst of a political, economic and financial crisis.
Revised ECB liquidity number du jour
More ECB LTRO stuff, this time from Credit Suisse’s European banks team:
Furthermore, there has been a lot of commentary surrounding the potential utilisation of the second tranche of 3yr funds due on Feb 29th,
Markets Live transcript 30 Jan 2012
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:02 on 30 Jan 2012. Participants in this chat were: Paul Murphy Bryce Elder/FT PMMorning PMcan’t hack this being on time each day