November, 2011
99 per cent of credit derivatives are recorded by DTCC… sort of
The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, and representatives of trade association Isda, have stated on several occasions that 98 per cent of all credit derivatives outstanding are recorded in the Trade Information Warehouse that the former organisation runs.
Supercommittee: oh, drag
Last week FT Alphaville listed some of the items that would affect how much fiscal drag the US economy would confront in the next couple of years.
In light of the US budget Supercommittee’s imminent collapse,
Citi’s high carbs diet
It seems like more or less anything can be deemed an asset class these days.
Here’s the latest one from Citigroup analysts: ‘Carbs’. No that’s not McDonalds and Coca Cola, but Canada, Australia,
The ‘Last Days’ of the Euro
Alternative title: Why France and Germany are likely to strike a momentous deal on fiscal union sooner than anyone thinks.
Welcome back, Jonathan Wilmot.
It’s some time since we heard from Credit Suisse’s chief global strategist (and occasional FT Alphaville contributor) but he’s made up for that with a short,
The legal aspects and abstractions of a euro redenomination
And so it came to pass, that everyone who worried about whether the euros which people owed them would stay euros for much longer…
…realised that this was not a drill.
Case in point — a note by Nomura analysts published over the weekend,
Markets Live transcript 21 Nov 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:21 on 21 Nov 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder/FT NHHola Rabble NHwelcome to Markets Live
Phoenix knights
So, Clive Cowdery won’t be trying to retake control of his first Resolution vehicle via a bid for the Phoenix Group.
From RNS:
Resolution notes recent press speculation and confirms that, whilst it did investigate the possible acquisition of Phoenix Group Holdings (“Phoenix”) with both Phoenix and its lending banks,
Management on the hoof – Headless Horse edition [updated]
It’s all going wrong at The Headless Horse Lloyds Banking Group.
Very wrong.
First, their star hire from RBS has decided to stay put.
RNS statement.
The Group has also been informed by Nathan Bostock,
The risks of sticking to über harte währung strategy
Germany’s ‘hard money’ principles and opposition to Quantitative Easing by the ECB are, more often than not, framed with reference to the hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic.
Indeed, it’s a widely accepted truth that the horrors of the Third Reich were caused by the three year period of hyperinflation between June 1921 and July 1924.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Monday,
- Jailed demonstrators vs jailed bankers. Oh wait…
- The cost of an education.
- About some of those poor decisions.
- Your short-termism is cramping my vol.
- Occupy Wall Street,
Pink picks
Comment, analysis, and other offerings from Monday’s FT,
Lawrence Summers: We have to do better on inequality
The principal problem facing the US and Europe for the next few years is an output shortfall caused by a lack of demand,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- Centrica buys gas assets from Statoil in $1.6bn deal; seen as expensive by analysts — statement.
- Phoenix Group considering bid approach from CVC Capital Partners — statement.
FTfm on AV
Some highlights from Monday’s FTfm.
European real estate meltdown
Many smaller real estate fund managers are forecast to hit the wall in the next two years as a freeze in fundraising and the deepening crisis in the eurozone hits struggling boutiques
Hedgies gain from prop trade fall-off
A severe contraction in investment banks’ proprietary trading activities is “democratising”
[Something for the weekend] An irrelevant bargain for Branson
When you’re short of money, the odd £747m always comes in useful, but it doesn’t go far these days. It’s enough to finance the UK state spending machine for about nine hours. The government had spent more than the proceeds from the sale of Northern Rock before it could read the reaction to it in Friday’s papers.
Weekender
This week on FT Alphaville,
- Is Basel 2.5 hitting the bond markets?
- Getting a little Spanish bond yield perspective.
- Sino-forest still has many questions to answer.
- What awaits you, Mr President(-elect?).
Further further reading
For the commute home,
- Investors move to price in a euro split.
- €CONOMIA, the game where you win if Europe loses.
- Drowning in numbers.
- Which economic indicators best predict presidential elections.
98 per cent of credit derivatives are recorded by DTCC… right?
It’s a claim that is often made by representatives of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association and of The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation that 98 per cent of all credit derivatives outstanding are recorded in the latter organisation’s Trade Information Warehouse.
SuperGroup drooping again
Damn!
How did we not think of this?
We have struggled for some time now to come up with any sensible way of assessing the popularity of the Superdry brand.
A consumer survey on brand perception would normally be the best approach.
Looking at the eurozone through a NIIP prism
Whichever way you look at it, the eurozone crisis is ugly.
But looking at the overall indebtedness of peripheral economies instead of focusing solely on their public sector debt offers an interesting perspective on the problem,
US Markets Live transcript 18 Nov 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 16:14 on 18 Nov 2011. Participants in this chat were: John McDermott, FT Cardiff Garcia JMHello! CGGood morning! CG/afternoon
The great de-leveraging
Or as Matt King at Citi put it in his latest presentation, “Payback Time: The Coming Decade of Deleveraging”. In short, we’ve borrowed much too much, and the public sector can’t substantially reduce its debt without a corresponding increase in borrowing in the private sector,
Reminder: US Markets Live at 10am New York time, 3pm London
John McDermott has decided to spend the wholesome US holiday of Thanksgiving in Las Vegas, which means a) he needs gambling tips from the Rabble, and b) we’re gonna keep Western Union on speed dial next week in case he posts his return flight as collateral in a game of Texas Hold’em.
On misunderstanding QE and UK inflation
Is QE money printing, or not? That is the question.
Is it hyperinfaltionary, or not? That is another question.
Ever since the strategy was rolled out by central banks in 2009, the vogue has certainly been to describe it as such.
Markets Live transcript 18 Nov 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:14 on 18 Nov 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Paul Murphy Izabella Kaminska NHHola NHwelcome to Markets Live
Mariano Rajoy – Europe’s quarterback
Europeans tend not to understand American football, not least because the ‘ball’ seems to rarely make contact with the ‘foot’.
But let’s hope Mariano Rajoy, the candidate expected to win Spain’s general election on Sunday,
I will happily position against optimism on the US economy
Say what you like about Bob Janjuah (and plenty of readers have – Ed) but he always has a view.
And Friday’s report — an appetizer for his 2012 outlook piece — is no exception. A hard default is probable in Europe,
Something for the bail-out sceptics
We won’t know until early next year how much the ECB has spent on its efforts to defend Italy and Spain facilitate the transmission of monetary policy across the Eurozone.
However, Gary Jenkins at Evolution Securities has crunched some numbers and he reckons the bank is now sitting on up to €100bn of Italian debt alone.
In for a penny, in for a pound, ECB guv’nor
Well, in for a cent, in for a euro. From Bloomberg on Friday:
European Central Bank governing council members have agreed on a 20 billion-euro ($27 billion) weekly upper limit for sovereign debt purchases as resistance among members grows,