Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:35 on 4 Nov 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT neil collins Bryce Elder/FT
NH
Welcome to Markets Live
NH
where the rally lives on
NH
this market is going higher
NH
could everyone report in please
BE
Hello rabble. Hello Neils.
NC
Greece can’t live with the euro. It desperately needs devaluation, and the longer it postpones it, the more damage to its banking system
NC
Why would any Greek hold an account with a Greek bank?
NH
my money would be in Frankfurt
NC
It’s perfectly legal to put your money with Deutsche in Franjkfurt
NH
before we get to Greece
BE
Greece needs to make a drachma out of a crisis.
BE
(I just thought of that. Quite pleased with myself.)
NH
I think we should have a look at the index levels
NH
we could continue the discussion
NH
we were having off air
NH
about Diamond Bob’s conversion
NH
the time for remorse was up a few months ago
NC
(Hard to see how the gov could insist you convert those Duesche Bank euros to devalued drachs)
BE
I missed Diamond Bob’s address to the nation.
NC
I heard it. Not much sign of contrition
BE
Bob Diamond didn’t once mention bankers’ pay in his BBC Today Programme business lecture last night so it was proper that John Humphrys should give him a mild going-over on the subject on the radio this morning.
BE
Diamond’s response was wholly inadequate for a chap who is seeking to present himself, Barclays and his industry as capable of being “good citizens”. Asked about his own pay, he said “it’s not about me.” Asked about pay at Barclays, he merely rolled out the familiar line about the need to balance “responsible” behaviour with the need to remain competitive.
BE
The latter is a re-working of an old line from Barclays chairman, Marcus Agius, about how the bank pays “as little as it can get away with.” But if Diamond and Agius wish to set themselves up as champions of a new era of trust in banking they are obliged to explain how it is that pay in their industry defies the normal rules of capitalism.
NC
It’s not the banks, it’s the bankers. Lloyds shareholders have already lost 90% of their capital over 5 years
NH
“My salary is just over £1m. Whether or not there is anything in addition to that is up to the board.”
NH
pull the other one Bob
NH
what about the rest of the package
BE
“It’s up to the board, of which I’m CEO.”
NC
A mere £1m to get out of bed in the morning
BE
Neil )the other one) is off looking for a transcript of the speech.
NC
Alternatively: “I don’t write my own pay cheque. I get the board to do it for me.”
NH
but I was listening to it last night
NH
was saying how he went to a meeting in Washingtobn
NH
banks had to be responsible citizens
NH
they did play a part in the crash
NH
they did have responsbilities
NC
“We bankers have decided to repay our debts to society”
NC
…but we can’t find any.”
BE
Did I ever mention the Barclays staff junket to Gleneagles a few years ago, where they tricked the entire hotel out as a casino?
BE
Not wildly appropriate, in retrospect.
NC
tricked is le mot juste, I’d say
NH
FTSE 100 is up another 34 points to 5,580
BE
Flashing on the Borg …….
BE
*JON CORZINE SAID TO PLAN RESIGNATION FROM MF GLOBAL
NC
Doesn’t that trigger some payment to him?
NH
which was taken to a whole new level at MF Global
NH
he wasn’t so much vital to the operation
NH
he’s also lost his job at Chris Flowers firm
NH
difficult to see him working again on the Street
NH
looks like he will have to go back to politics
NC
I expect he’ll be a preferred creditor at MF
BE
Indeed. We may well be in the odd circumstance where the man who drove the company to the wall is on the reciever’s creditor list.
NH
like Fred the Shred was a key man
NC
Never invest in a company with a key man
NH
which we think comes around 10pm
NH
sadly I’ll be a dinner
NH
so will be giving the vote a miss
NH
we might get a favourable outcome
BE
(@Tassell: I suspect the differing response is because Flowers has lost a lot of his own money. We’re rather Old Testament about this stuff.)
BE
So we are ahead another 0.7%
NC
@tk: I’d have preferred Jardines (with hindsight, of course)
BE
39 points at 5583 or thereabouts.
BE
Third day on the upside, I think.
BE
So can we have a preview of how things might go tonight.
NH
strange you should as that
NH
because I have something
NH
Greek PM Mr Papandreou has scrapped the controversial plans to hold a referendum; says it is no longer as necessary as the main opposition – the New Democracy Party – are now willing to support the new Greek bailout. In his opinion, the referendum call had “offered a positive and creative shock” to the debate, and approval of the new bailout measures is the only way for Greece to stay in the EMU. Equities bounced on the news, and we expect the support to continue into today.
NH
What are the possible outcomes?
NH
the question we are all asking
NH
(i) National Unity Government:
NH
According to reports, the New Democracy Party has proposed a transitional NUG, which will shepherd the bailout plan through parliament. Within the same proposal, early elections are likely to be called as soon as the new bailout is approved. Mr Papandreou continues to resist calls for his resignation, and is still expected to face a vote of confidence tomorrow. In our opinion, a unity government remains the most favourable outcome given the circumstances. With the opposition now supporting the bailout, this removes the added uncertainty, and shifts focus back onto implementation of the Oct. 21 E[M]U agreement.·
NH
(ii) Government collapse, and early elections: Should the NUG proposal fail, and Mr Papandreou lose the vote of confidence tomorrow, early elections will follow. We view this as a negative as it would create more uncertainty given the unstable political environment in Greece. Delays in creating a stable government will also cause procrastination in disbursement of the next aid tranche – risking a Greek default. While possible, this outcome remains less likely.
NH
G-20 discusses increases contributions to IMF
Rumours have re-surfaced that the IMF is considering extending precautionary credit lines to Spain and Italy to stem the contagion. These would be capped at 5x the respective country’s IMF quota – which for Italy would equate to EUR44bn. This is a short term positive given that and if anything shows more commitment from international players. However, as we have mentioned before, the size of the credit lines is unlikely to be sufficient, given the magnitude of the ongoing crisis.
Yesterday, the G-20 also discussed upsizing their IMF contributions. According to UK Chancellor, Mr Osborne, no amounts were mentioned, but there was broad consensus, including from BRICS, to boost the IMF’s funds amid the ongoing crisis. Any positive announcement along these lines will also provide some (temporary) relief to risk sentiment. However, UK PM Mr Cameron says the IMF cannot directly invest in the Euro rescue fund, so the exact nature of an IMF intervention, if any, remains to be confirmed.
NH
that could be another positive for the market i guess
NH
I am digesting Joachim’s comment
NH
I think he may be caught in a time wrap
BE
About Diamond being “the most successful banker in London”?
NH
I’m sure those arguments about the UK
NH
and a successful financial services sector
NH
anyway our problem with Bob
NH
we can’t believe this conversion
NH
why is he so sorry all of sudden?
NH
because the banks realise
NH
they stuffed up on their post crash PR
NH
and are now trying to make up for it
NC
Is he going to join the St Paul’s protesters?
BE
Since Diamond was named CEO, Barclays shares have fallen 40%. I’m just noting that in passing.
BE
(*MF GLOBAL SAYS CORZINE RESIGNED FROM FROM ALL POSTS)
NH
have really enjoyed the success
NH
Lloyds down 56% this year
NC
Presumably he can claim to have outperformed Lloyds and RBS
BE
Yes. Success in context.
BE
Like being the most attractive woman in Dundee. It’s all about context.
BE
Anyway, you were talking Greece.
BE
Or I guess there’s only so much more to say there.
BE
Perhaps we should preview the payrolls instead.
BE
Which, I think, we’ll still be in line for.
NC
The greek economy can’t live with the euro (reprise)
BE
(@SilverFox: yes, but she left. Important detail that.)
NH
US non-farm payrolls, Oct (12:30 GMT): After a lull in August, private payroll growth accelerated to 137,000 in September. The “swing” between the two months was largely due to 45,000 Verizon workers who went on strike in August and returned to work the following month. The average of the two months reflects an underlying trend of about 95,000 private sector jobs per month that we expect continued into October.
NH
In most areas of private payrolls, we expect moderate gains. Manufacturing payrolls, which contracted in September despite continued growth in that sector, could have rebounded in October. In addition, construction employment may have posted another healthy gain in October, as recent data on housing activity have suggested some improvement. Meanwhile, job gains in health care, temporary help services and other professional and business services may have repeated the relative strength they exhibited in Q3. Until firms have more clarity regarding potential tax changes, the US economic outlook, and the European situation, the hurdle for hiring permanent workers will remain high.
NH
The government sector could have held down headline payrolls. After outsized losses between May and July (roughly 50,000 per month), the decline in this sector averaged just 15,000 per month in August and September. The deceleration was encouraging and we will look for more evidence of a moderating trend.
NH
Away from payrolls, we look for the workweek to have held steady at 34.3 hours, with some upside risk (decent economic growth in Q3 may have encouraged some companies to increase output by adding employee hours). Meanwhile, hourly earnings could have edged up by 0.2% (identical to September’s increase). Finally, we expect the unemployment rate to have been unchanged in October at 9.1%. After two consecutive large increases in household employment (331,000 and 398,000), a pullback in this measure could keep the unemployment rate steady even if the labor market is starting to improve.
BE
I’ve got a brief line from JP Morgan.
BE
Our forecast calls for an increase in nonfarm
payrolls of 95,000 with 105,000 jobs added in the private
sector. This would be a modest improvement in payroll
growth relative to what was reported in recent months
(when adjusting for the Verizon strike, private payrolls
increased by about 90,000 in both August and
September). We expect the unemployment rate for
October to be unchanged at 9.1%.
BE
And, since we’re on the theme, BarCap.
BE
Actually, no. BarCap hasn’t put a PDF on the email.
BE
Diamond’s pay should be docked for that kind of sloppiness.
NH
there will be the usual US ML
NH
to analyse the figures
NH
usually runs more smoothly that than the UK version
NC
Greece may not be the only country needing devaluation…
NC
here’s the latest from Smithers & Co
BE
Ah – Andrew Smithers. Always worth hearing from.
NC
He reckons that the UK economy is so hopeless that only another fall in sterling will deal with the problems
NH
I’m sure the BoE will oblige
NC
It might be dangerous to weaken sterling deliberately, as this could raise inflationary expectations. It is also unlikely to be tried. The UK will have to wait and hope.
NC
That’s rather his view on QE too.
BE
(GBK’s $1.60 and E1.1574 at pixel time. #timestamp)
BE
Give us some more of that, please.
NC
7. If consumer price inflation is to remain low despite currency weakness, domestic service prices probably need to fall to offset imported inflation. This requires a combination of low nominal wage increases and lower profit margins.
8. Fiscal stimulus is undesirable because it hinders long-term recovery; not only by increasing the fiscal deficit, but because it is likely to widen the trade deficit and push up sterling. It also risks encouraging nominal wage rises and discouraging the required fall in service profit margins.
NC
Managed devaluation? May be worth a try, but dangerous
BE
Not sure it’d do much for consumer confidence, spending, yada yada.
BE
Unless we’re expecting wage inflation to suddenly appear.
NH
while we are talking BoE
NC
would make UK gilts look even worse value than they already are
NH
today’s piece in the paper is interesting
NH
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/137d6cfc-0613-11e1-a079-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1cjh4hP00
The Bank of England’s new supervisory arm should be given broad discretion to force banks to restructure or cut back their borrowing without having to point to specific rules, according to Sir Mervyn King, Bank governor.
Sir Mervyn told a joint parliamentary committee that the government plan to break up the Financial Services Authority and give a new subsidiary of the Bank responsibility for prudential regulation would only work if the UK changed its approach to supervising banks and insurers.
NH
the bloody disclaimer again
NH
can’t you see that website?
NH
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The proposed Prudential Regulatory Authority should “be able to say to a bank that your leverage has gone from 20 to 1 to 40 to 1. This hasn’t broken any rules but it is highly risky and we want you to change it,” Sir Meryvn said. “We want to be able to say that your degree of opacity is contrary to financial stability….The regulator has to be free to make judgements.”
NH
that all sounds like a good idea to me
NH
does things by the spirit not the letter of the law
NH
and that seems to work well
NH
better than having 3,000 people from FSA wielding clip boards
NH
and making sure everyone ticks the boxes
NH
a word from the Governor over dinner
NH
would surely be much more effective
NC
The Panel has had plenty of ups and downs over the years
NH
but it seems to muddle through
NH
and get things broadly correct
BE
Though it’s living in quiet times at the moment.
NC
it also had backing from everyone that counted
Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS:LSE): Last: 23.61, up 0.81 (+3.55%), High: 24.08, Low: 23.05, Volume: 39.21m
Anglo American PLC (AAL:LSE): Last: 2,445, up 88 (+3.73%), High: 2,452, Low: 2,371, Volume: 2.17m
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG:LSE): Last: 161.40, down 7 (-4.16%), High: 166.70, Low: 160.60, Volume: 9.29m
ARM Holdings PLC (ARM:LSE): Last: 635.00, up 33 (+5.48%), High: 638.50, Low: 604.30, Volume: 2.96m
BE
Hm. 45 minutes in and we haven’t mentioned a stock yet. Sign of the times, I guess.
BE
Um – let’s start at the top of the pile.
BE
It’s quite dull, unfortunately.
BE
Microchip results overnight
BE
And they called the bottom of the cycle
BE
Microchip’s a bellwether of sorts for the semis
BE
Not because it’s huge, but because its silicon goes into everything.
BE
From digital watches to car assembly robots.
NH
must admit to having never heard of them
BE
And their customers tend to be relatively small.
BE
So it’s very very sensitive to end market demand.
BE
I hate the phrase “canary in the coal mine,” but it’s probably appropriate here.
BE
So anyway, here’s what Microchip said.
BE
While MCHP expect 4Q sales to be flat to down 7% qoq, they are calling the bottom, saying that semiconductor companies are shipping below end consumption, leading to a quick inventory burn off in the supply chain. They expect 1Q12 sales, margins and EPS to be UP.
BE
“The macroeconomic conditions continue to be weak,
but we believe that the shipment rates in December will be below the consumption rates of our customers. We expect the inventory burn-off to be largely over by the end of the December quarter and anticipate the December quarter to mark the bottom of this industry cycle for revenue, gross margin and earnings per share. We are modeling December quarter revenue to be flat to down seven percent. We expect the March 2012 quarter to be sequentially up in revenue, gross margin and earnings.”
NH
can’t say I’m widely bullish about the statement
NH
but the market likes it
NH
revenues below forecasts, costs higher than expected
NH
but they make the numbers because of a big improvement in impairments
NH
because they took a massive hit on some non core Irish stuff in the second quarter
NH
which I tried to ignore
NH
the revenue outlook looks grim
NH
it still the size of South Korea
NH
almost £1trn of assets
BE
That’s a fair summary.
NH
of which more a being valued on a Level ii basis
NH
i probably wrong to be bearish
NC
They aren’t serious about slimming down.
NH
Britain’s Dick Bove on the numbers
BE
Yes, once again he’s a lively read.
NH
Never mind the sideshows. RBS will not be broken up. RBS will not be nationalised. RBS will not raise fresh equity capital. Despite the endless additional political and regulatory roadblocks placed in its way, against all the odds, RBS is, slowly but surely, making progress. Its 2013 15% RoE target was always a joke – you know that, we know that, they know that.
NH
It is an irrelevance. It is not (and never has been) part of any rational investment thesis. Buy the stock at 0.4x tNAV, sell it at 0.8x and book the profit. We think that will take 12 months (give or take). That doesn’t solve all the Company’s issues or the UK Government’s disposal of its £45.8bn 82.2% stake, but those issues sit outside (or beyond) our investment thesis. The funny thing is, some investors who won’t buy RBS at 23p today will be piling in at 40p in a year or so. Strange that?
NH
neck on the block time
BE
A phrase with many meanings over at Evo …..
NC
I fear he’s right, though. They would rather pay 40p later than23p now
NH
but will they get to 40p
NH
I can see them having a run into the year end
NH
because we are clearly
NH
in the middle of central bank liquidity driven ramp
BE
There’s still a lot of bad news stored up in RBS, I guess.
NC
Nobody wants to put capital into banks, but fashions change in investment, as with anything else
NH
have been all about the liquidity sloshing around the system
NH
from Bruce Packard at Seymour Pierce
BE
(@Minnow: that was Wednesday.)
NH
RBS reports Q3 results, with total income excluding Fair Value of Own Debt (FVOD) of £6.4bn down 20% versus Q3 last year, and consensus of £6.7bn. Core total income was down 10%, driven by core net interest income down 8bp to 2.10% from the previous quarter and down 18bp yoy. But much of the group income decline was driven by “non core” income which dropped off a cliff, from £978m to £46m. The much derided Global Banking & Markets division saw income at £1.1bn down 29% v Q3 last year, but 10% ahead of analysts expectations for the division.
NH
Group loss before tax ex £2.4bn FVOD was £353m. Pleasingly, the group impairment charge continues to fall on a quarterly basis, it was £1.54bn down by 32% on the Q2 11 as the “non core” impairment more than halved to £682m. However this impairment trend excludes sovereign debt impairments, in Q2 RBS wrote down Greek bonds to 50% of notional value, recording an impairment of £733m. An additional impairment of £142m has now been taken, writing down the debt to 37p in the £. In addition there is a further £60m writedown for an interest rate hedge adjustment on Greek government bonds in the Available For Sale portfolio.
NH
Core tier 1 was 11.3% up 20bp from the half year. Basic EPS was 1p bring the 9M EPS to 0.2p. But tangible book value per share was up 3p in the quarter to 53p, presumably benefiting from the FVOD adjustment. At 23p RBS is trading at 0.43x tangible book, and well below our target price of 40p. Our recommendation is Reduce. However, a lot of bad news has been thrown at the shares and the chart suggests they seem to have found support just above 20p. We are also growing increasingly wary of a Central Bank liquidity driven rally in the last couple of months of the year, so that whilst our stance is negative, there may be some benefit for traders in the short term.
BE
Not sure there’s much to add there.
NC
At 23p RBS is trading at 0.43x tangible book, and well below our target price of 40p. Our recommendation is Reduce. Huh?
BE
Well, that’s the upshot to RBS’s problem.
BE
It is, undeniably, cheap.
NH
although that bank is headless
BE
And it is, undeniably, broken.
Anglo American PLC (AAL:LSE): Last: 2,435, up 78.5 (+3.33%), High: 2,452, Low: 2,371, Volume: 2.23m
NH
Their buying the Oppenheimer holding in De Beers
NH
seems a hefty price tag to me
BE
(@Minnow: not at all. Fair to say HP thing all adds to the positive sentiment.)
NH
but the market seems non plussed
BE
Yes — imagine that they could’ve paid 2 years ago?
BE
When this business was effectively worthless?
NH
didn’t they have to bail it out
NH
by backing a rights issue
NH
analysts say it’s not a bad deal
NH
cheaper than Petra Diamonds
NH
a little more expensive than Gem Diamonds
NH
if you think they are good comparisons
BE
Not really. De Beers isn’t a normal miner.
BE
If there’s such a thing as a “normal miner” when it’s digging for diamonds.
NH
at least it will put some of these bid rumours. Anglo seems to be liked with so many companies. Walter Energy for example
NC
Do De Beers still control the market for diamonds?
NH
they are large force in the market, yes
NC
That would be worth a premium
NC
Sorry, NO PRICE CONTROLS
BE
My first assumption was that Anglo was consolidating power to spin it off some time in the near future.
BE
But, apparently, Cynthia says no.
BE
Core business, it seems.
BE
Which, given its boom and bust history, I’m not sure I’d see as a positive.
NH
Anglo American has acquired the Oppenheimer’s 40% stake in De Beers for US$5.1bn, taking its stake to 85%. This transaction has long been coveted by AAL’s board and we believe AAL has struck a very good deal for itself paying 5.6x EV / EBITDA 2012 or 9.1x PER 2012, based on Liberum’s forecasts for De Beers. This screens exceptionally well versus traded comps with Petra on 9.8x consensus 2012 PER and Gem Diamonds on 8.5x 2012, yet De Beers is the market leader and the biggest brand.
NH
AAL’s timing is also canny, coming shortly after the forced sale of 49% of its flagship Chilean copper assets to Codelco. We estimate the acquisition is between 7.5-8.0% EPS accretive for AAL over the next 3 years. We think this deal will be taken positively; shareholders have been clamouring in recent years for AAL to either increase its stake in De Beers or to IPO its stake. A clue to what the future might hold is requirement for AAL to top up the consideration by any incremental value generated via an IPO of De Beers, 20% if a listing occurs within 1 year or 10% if one occurs in the second year.
NH
5.6x 2012 EBITDA, 9.1x earnings looks like a very good deal. In 2010 AAL’s 45% stake in De Beers generated attributable EBITDA of US$666m and US$302m underlying earnings. On a 45% basis we forecast 2012 EBITDA at US$1.1bn and attributable earnings at US$628m. At 30 June 2011 De Beers had US$1.5bn of non-interest bearing debt, therefore we estimate AAL’s US$5.1bn consideration is equivalent to 5.6x 2012 EBITDA or 9.1x earnings (based on the 40% attributable stake). We estimate the acquisition is 8.0% EPS accretive for AAL in 2012, 7.5% in 2013 and 7.9% in 2014 – this estimate takes current spot prices for all commodities except diamonds.
NH
and here’s a good question
NH
Why are the Oppenheimer’s selling?
NH
The Oppenheimer name is synonymous with diamonds and De Beers, therefore there is likely to be questions as to why they are selling. We believe the overriding reasons are succession issues; De Beers’ Chairman Nicky Oppenheimer is 65 and there is no obvious family member coming through the ranks to take managerial control. He stepped down from AAL’s board earlier in 2011 giving a hint to today’s transaction. The Oppenheimer’s state this morning that AAL “is the obvious home for De Beers”. We do not believe this sale has any read across to the Oppenheimer’s view on diamond pricing, on the contrary given that this is AAL’s first major acquisition with its renewed financial firepower, we think this is a very bullish signal by AAL on diamond pricing outlook. Furthermore, whilst the majority of De Beers earnings come from Botswana, South Africa remains an important contributor. Therefore we think this acquisition is a vote of confidence by AAL on South African country risk.
NH
Is a De Beers IPO now on the cards? AAL has agreed in the event of a De Beers IPO in the next 2 years, to pay capped further consideration to the Oppenheimers, of 20% if an IPO occurs in the first year or 10% in the 2nd year of any increase in the attributable equity value. Consequently we believe a De Beers IPO within the next 2 years is a credible, value enhancing option for AAL.
BE
Within two years …. Hm.
BE
Here’s SocGen post a chat with Cynthia.
BE
A second read through of the details shows De Beers net debt is well below our first take.
The deal actually values De Beers at c$15bn on an EV basis (vs our pre-deal valuation of
$12.0bn). The implied EV/Annualised H1 11 EBITDA comes in at 6.0x, which looks reasonable
to us. We understand that AA also looks at this transaction from a scale, asset optimisation,
best practice and procurement perspective. It is interesting to note that De Beers currently
leverages only on AAs strategic industrial alliance with Michelin & Komatsu but that there are
many more possibilities beyond that, in our view. Management did not quantify additional
savings.
BE
Regarding funding of the transaction, AAs CFO stressed that there is c$2.0bn of cash on
the balance sheet alongside a $3.5bn undrawn bank facility. As a result, he does not think
additional cash will be required by H2 12. The CEO stressed that this deal is not linked to
Codelcos decision to exercise its long dated option to acquire 49% of Anglo Sur.
BE
The positives
It removes capital allocation risk – The De Beers deal comes at a sensible price and
removes some of the uncertainty around capital allocation. We flagged capital
allocation as the key risk for Anglo in the event of a potential disposal of 49% of Anglo
American Sur – see our note “Another potential disposal, but now a core asset”, issued
12 October. Anglo will likely use proceeds from such a disposal to fund the acquisition
of more De Beers shares.
BE
Increasing late cycle exposure – We prefer late cycle “consumer-related”
commodities as China’s economy becomes more consumer driven.
Taking control and simplifying the structure – Acquisition of the Oppenheimer’s
40% stake will give Anglo control over De Beers.
Resource nationalism not a major issue – The bulk of De Beers’ operations are in
Botswana. De Beers is operating in successful partnership with the Botswana
government, which reduces “nationalisation risk”.
BE
Ok – done on diamonds?
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG:LSE): Last: 161.70, down 6.7 (-3.98%), High: 166.70, Low: 160.60, Volume: 9.95m
NH
they are close to buying
NH
presumably for the slots at Heathrow
NH
they can’t want the rest
NC
Ah yes, BA ends up buying every other UK airline
BE
Or, in this case, buying some terminal time with a lossmaking airline attached.
NH
there’s also results out
NH
are probably the reason
NH
IAG reported Q3 EBIT of € 363m. This is at the lower end of a very wide
consensus range of € 340m to over € 500m
NH
The key feature for us was the
deterioration in passenger revenue momentum during the quarter – this has
ominous implications for profits in the years ahead, as IAG needs revenue
strength to offset the substantial cost inflation it is facing. This squeeze in
profitability comes at a time where IAG is having to invest capital to sustain its
business (A380/B787 and BMI acquisition).
BE
But the Q4 guidance is optimistic.
BE
Despite a worse 3Q, IAG is forecasting
a doubling of operating profit for 2011 compared to 2010. We estimate this would be
€450m vs. €225m in 2010.This is significantly better than our forecast of €329m and
implies an operating profit in 4Q11 of €55m vs. €6m a year ago and our current
estimate of a €153m loss. We estimate the 4Q implied outlook would be a flat result on a year ago, excluding the €50-60m of disruption costs due to bad weather (snow) last year. It is unclear whether the guidance is pre- or post-exceptional and merger items. Premium traffic is expected to be flat for 4Q, which is better than our forecast of -2.5%. Nevertheless, IAG expects demand weakness and higher fuel costs in 2012 and nonpremium traffic, especially in Spain, is weak. We already forecast 2012 operating profit
to fall to €173m.
NH
clearly no one believes that
BE
No – and October traffic data was poor as well.
NH
biggest faller in the FTSE 100
BE
Hm. The rightards seem to be talking Alsatian wine and dim sum ….
BE
I think we’ve expended interest in British Airways now.
NH
that was focused on Nigeria
NH
it fancied a bit of Kurdistan
NH
stock has been weak today
Afren PLC (AFR:LSE): Last: 81.60, down 5.45 (-6.26%), High: 87.00, Low: 74.55, Volume: 17.38m
NH
there’s was a note from Canaccord knocking around
NH
Afren recently completed the previously announced acquisition of two blocks in Kurdistan. The US$588.25 million deal, which includes the Barda Rash and Ain Sifni blocks, will be financed through a combination of equity, debt and cash. US$388.25 million is due on completion of the deal, and another US$200 million is due in six months.
Action
With the timing of the deal confirmed, we believe attention will shift to production. It is increasingly evident that Ebok production has been delayed significantly and we believe Afren will be hard pressed to meet its recent production guidance of a 25 kboepd average for 2011.
As such, we are lowering our target price to 75p/share from 104p/share and our rating to SELL from Hold.
NH
Ebok production and year-end debt
We have revised our average H2/11 production estimate for Ebok to 9,500 boepd from 19,917 boepd. We now assume current production at Ebok is 15 kboepd (and essentially zero for half of H2/11), and that another four producer wells may come onstream before the year end. On our revised production estimates, we estimate Afren will exit 2011 with net debt of US$830 million (including finance leases), which would translate to 68% gearing.
Valuation
Given the current focus on production, we are moving to a Contingent/ Development NAV from a total NAV previously. We calculate a NAV of 75p/share based on an US$87.50/bbl flat real oil price and a 15% discount rate.
NH
that’s only part of the reason
NH
and the shares have been hit hard
NH
STATE-owned Nigerian Petroleum Development Corporation (NPDC) and a little-known local company called Atlantic Drilling have been handed control of four blocks that have been subject to a protracted divestment process carried out by supermajor Shell, plus Block 26 that was provisionally allocated to Afren.
NH
News of the NPDC-Atlantic tie- up for blocks 30, 34, 40 and 42 emerged just before a 31 October deadline, when shortlisted suitors had to conclude talks to takeover their preferred blocks or else lose their deposits, with Shell having the right to withdraw.
NPDC is aiming to operate all the blocks, with Atlantic acting as its service contractor, said sources, leaving the shortlisted suitors to join them under joint operating agreements.
Conoil was seeking operatorship of Block 30, the most sought- after asset, while other blocks were targeted by the Nekonde consortium, Niger Delta E&P — a company founded by Aret Adams, a former executive of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) — and Starcrest, associated with Nigerian oil mogul Emeka Offor.
BE
The elephant in the room when it comes to all these companies.
NH
so the story seems to be Nigeria
NH
might not offer the opportunities
NH
they are off to Kurdistan
NH
a big note out on the region
NH
Iraqi Kurdistan: Land Of Opportunity?
NH
Underexplored province with multi-billion barrel potential — According to the US
Geological Society, Kurdistan could hold over 50 billion bbls of oil and gas, which is
comparable to the current reserves of Libya. Largely unexplored prior to 2004, recent
drilling has resulted in the discovery of c.5bn bbls of oil. Despite significant political
uncertainties, we expect exploration and appraisal drilling to accelerate into 2012. We
estimate that 25+ E&A wells will be drilled over the next 15 months. Afren, DNO and
Heritage offer exposure to Kurdistan from our E&P coverage list.
NH
got that muppet investors
A term of endearment used to describe BB share promoters on FT Alphaville.
NH
In theory, Kurdistan projects are well positioned on the cost curve — Based on
current PSC terms, Kurdistan has the potential to be a low-cost operating environment
in the first / second quartile of our industry cost curve. We calculate an IRR of c. 35%
and breakeven of c. $36/bbl for a generic oil project in Kurdistan. However, these terms
are yet to be ratified and we see the risk that these terms could be tightened.
NH
Contract validity and payment for oil exports remain material risks — Iraq’s Central
Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) continue to dispute the
validity of the PSCs issued by the Kurdish authorities. In addition, oil contractors
operating in Kurdistan are not receiving full payment for their oil exports. These two
issues are unlikely to be resolved until the signing of an Iraqi Oil and Gas Law;
resumed negotiations are encouraging but a final solution remains highly uncertain.
Given the higher political risk, we have assumed a higher discount rate (15%) for the
Kurdistan-operations of the independent E&Ps
NH
Regional consolidation could continue — There has been an increase in farm-ins
and acquisitions in Kurdistan (Vallares, Afren, Maersk). However, small, often private,
companies continue to hold licences in highly prospective areas. We expect M&A to
accelerate further upon the resolution of Erbil’s conflict with Baghdad. An agreement
would allow the large-caps to move into the region and complete the consolidation,
maximising value for early entrants and large resource holders.
NH
Initiating on DNO (Neutral/High Risk, TP NOK8.1) — DNO is a MENA focused E&P
with key assets in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Tawke field is producing with access to export
infrastructure and DNO looks well positioned to unlock material value from its Kurdistan
asset base once the regional political situation improves. De-risking its Kurdistan
operations could add c.NOK3.2/share to our base NAV of NOK10.1/share. DNO is
currently completing a merger with RAK Petroleum to expand and diversify its MENA
operations and could seek a listing on the LSE in 2012 to fund further inorganic growth.
NH
after that Citi also takes up coverage
Heritage Oil Plc (HOIL:LSE): Last: 213.40, up 0.5 (+0.23%), High: 215.70, Low: 209.10, Volume: 162.49k
The next supermajor, potentially sitting on 60bn barrels of oil in Kurdistan. Loved by muppets across the globe.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP:LSE): Last: 133.50, no change, High: 135.56, Low: 131.36, Volume: 827.97k
NH
presumably it’s an oversight
NH
they are the real force in the region
BE
Oh, Neil. You can’t resist, can you?
BE
You’re like the financial press’s Liz Jones.
BE
You know we’ll get emails.
NH
one of the companies that producing
NH
if you are so interested in the region
NH
it’s not as if they are a small company
BE
I wouldn’t like to speculate why Citi wouldn’t want to start coverage of a company with the single most militant shareholder base in the planet.
BE
Perhaps they desire a quiet life.
NH
(target price for DNO is 8.10 Nkr)
NH
any small caps to look at?
BE
Hm. Nine minutes to payrolls ……..
BE
Let’s fill the time with Phorm.
NH
you explain what it does
NH
I will get the statement
NH
Phorm (AIM: PHRM and PHRX), the internet personalization technology company, is pleased to announce an expansion of the £30.0m equity placing with institutional and other investors announced on 21 October 2011 to a total of £33.6m (the “Placing”).
NH
The total number of Shares that will be issued pursuant to the Placing will be 39,023,306 at a Placing price per Share of 86.10p. Accordingly, the total number of Shares to be issued by the Company pursuant to the Transaction is 57,011,608.
NH
now that’s very very different
NH
Placing shares will be issued at a price (the “Placing Price”) which equates to £1 million for each 1% of the fully diluted enlarged share capital of the Company after the Transaction (equating to a market value of £100 million on a fully diluted basis). The current market capitalisation of the Company was ca. £28.2 million as at close of business on 20 October 2011.
BE
Ok – so shares had puked since that.
BE
And the reasons for the gain ahead of the placing were …….. can I say murky?
BE
It wasn’t entirely clear why the stock, in which there is no liquidity, went up in a straight line.
BE
There was some talk around of someone getting on the wrong side of a short, I think.
Phorm Inc (PHRM:LSE): Last: 105.00, down 20 (-16.00%), High: 95.00, Low: 95.00, Volume: 29.29k
BE
Ok – three minutes to payrolls.
BE
Anything else? Or should we play the ROTR some mood music?
BE
A bit of James Last to pass the time?
NH
that can fill in the time
BE
Though he’s gone to the can.
BE
The anticipation of payrolls is clearly getting to him.
NC
I gotta go. Before I do, here (to remind him) are the numbers on Diamond Bob’s payslip
BE
(20 seconds to payrolls.)
NC
Basic pay last year 250k, total remuneration £6,750,000
BE
*U.S. OCTOBER PAYROLLS RISE 80,000, JOBLESS RATE FALLS TO 9%
BE
*REVISIONS ADDED COMBINED 102,000 JOBS FOR SEPTEMBER, AUGUST
NH
RTRS-U.S. OCT NONFARM PAYROLLS +80,000 (CONSENSUS +95,000) VS SEPT +158,000 (PREV +103,000), AUG +104,000 (PREV +57,000)
12:30 04Nov11 RTRS-US OCT PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS +104,000 (CONS +120,000), SEPT+191,000 (PREV +137,000)
12:30 04Nov11 RTRS-U.S. OCT GOVERNMENT JOBS -24,000 VS SEPT -33,000 (PREV -34,000)
12:30 04Nov11 RTRS-U.S. OCT JOBLESS RATE 9.0 PCT (CONSENSUS 9.1 PCT) VS SEPT 9.1 PCT (PREV 9.1 PCT)
12:30 04Nov11 RTRS-U.S. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE 64.2 PCT IN OCT VS 64.2 PCT IN SEPT
12:30 04Nov11 RTRS-U.S. OCT AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ALL PRIVATE WORKERS +0.2 PCT (CONS +0.2 PCT) VS SEPT +0.3 PCT (PREV +0.2 PCT), TO $23.19 VS SEPT $23.14; OCT YEAR-ON-YEAR EARNINGS +1.8 PCT
12:30 04Nov11 RTRS-U.S. OCT AVERAGE WORKWK ALL PRIVATE WORKERS 34.3 HRS (CONS 34.3 PCT) VS SEPT 34.3 HRS (PREV 34.3), FACTORY 40.5 VS 40.3, OVERTIME 3.2 VS 3.2
12:30 04Nov11 RTRS-U.S. OCT FACTORY JOBS +5,000 (CONS. +1,000) VS SEPT -3,000 (PREV -13,000)
12:30 04Nov11 RTRS-U.S. OCT GOODS-PRODUCING JOBS -10,000, CONSTRUCTION -20,000, PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING JOBS +114,000, RETAIL +17,800
12:30 04Nov11 RTRS-U.S. OCT AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS INDEX FOR ALL PRIVATE WORKERS +0.1 PCT VS SEPT +0.5 PCT
NH
the market won’t worry about that
BE
First tick on the FTSE is positive.
NH
53 points stronger at 5,595
BE
Though not convincing. Wobbling now.
NH
the devil always in the detail
NH
here’s a bit from the Corzine statement
NH
In a separate statement, Corzine said his resignation “was a difficult decision, but one that I believe is best for the firm and its stakeholders.
“I feel great sadness for what has transpired at MF Global and the impact it has had on the firm’s clients, employees and many others.
“I intend to continue to assist the company and its board in their efforts to respond to regulatory inquiries and issues related to the disposition of the firm’s assets.” Corzine said.
BE
Resignation “was a difficult decision, but one that I believe is best for the firm and its stakeholders.”
BE
Ha ha ha ha HA HA HA HA HA!
BE
Right – anyway – ta for the comments.
BE
And see you all next week.