October, 2011
A US recession indicator
Interesting chart from Ruslan Bikbov at BofA Merrill Lynch.
As you see the yield curve has proved to be a very powerful recession indicator. So why is Bikbov drawing our attention to it now when the 2s5s curve is 74bps – 29 bps above its long term average?
The answer runs as follows.
Her Majesty’s SME CLOs?
It’s like putting your foot on the accelerator but because the transmission mechanism isn’t working properly, the car wheels don’t respond.
Actually George, that might be because the car is on fire,
Quantos: when CDS met the monetary union
Back in June, Barclays Capital recommended buying quanto CDS on Greece as a way to profit from, or hedge against, a depreciation of the euro against the US dollar upon an eventual default of the sovereign.
We are in a secular bear market
For someone who hasn’t got much to add about the current state of the market, Bob Janjuah still manages to crank out 1,500 words in his latest piece for Nomura.
Bob firmly believes we are in a third stage of a secular bear market,
S&P affirms the UK’s AAA
Does this look like grounds for a negative or a stable outlook on that affirmation, do you think? (Via S&P’s statement — released just as Chancellor George Osborne took to the stage at the Conservative party conference):
No hard landing in China, HSBC says
Greece and the Eurozone are so last month. What’s really occupying minds at the moment is China and specifically the possibility of a hard landing.
To wit, we bring you a Q&A between Qu Hongbin, HSBC’s chief China economist,
Markets Live transcript 3 Oct 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:27 on 3 Oct 2011. Participants in this chat were: Bryce Elder/FT Neil Hume, FT
BESo good morning.
BEAnd welcome to Markets Live
Breaking even at Goldman Sachs
Thought the recent pick-up in trading volumes would be good news for the big investment and universal banks?
Think again.
Nomura’s US banks analyst Glenn Schorr has just taken the red pen to forecasts for the second time in a month.
Cable and Wireless and the looming writedown
What next for troubled telecoms group Cable and Wireless Worldwide and over-remunerated boss John Pluthero?
How about 40 per cent reduction in its shareholder funds?
That’s the top line of a gloomy report published by Merrill Lynch on Monday morning.
Dexia en chute encore
Sauver le financement des collectivités, oui, sauver le soldat Dexia, non!
…Or Dexia, getting in trouble, again.
There’s a meeting between the French and Belgian finance ministers on Monday about its future,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Monday,
- Paul Krugman holds China to account.
- Occupying Wall Street and Boston, while pondering the definition of freedom.
- Democracy in the Federal Open Market Committee.
- On Greece’s deficit target miss,
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Monday’s FT,
Mort Zuckerman: Why business despairs of Obama
Take a deep breath. The industrialised world, America included, seems stuck in one of those horror movies,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- Belgian and French finance ministers to discuss ways to shore up Dexia — report.
- Barclays and BofA looking to sell stake in Archstone — report.
- Numis Corporation says H2 revenues up 6 per cent — statement.
FTfm on AV
Some highlights from Monday’s FTfm.
Critics slam fee denial of trade body
Efama claims economies of scale account for lower US fees, but critics say this argument obscures the fact that fees are still