Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:19 on 20 Oct 2011. Participants in this chat were: Bryce Elder/FT Tony Tassell Lisa Pollack, FT
BE
And welcome to Markets Live
BE
FT Alphaville’s daily wander around the market
BE
So Tony joins from the main news desk
BE
And good to have you with us.
TT
can we not talk about Europe please
BE
Well, Nokia numbers hitting the tape just as we start up the machine.
BE
So we can use them as a distraction.
TT
more fire on the bridge
TT
i think Peston provided some distraction this morning
BE
*NOKIA 3Q SALES EU8.98 BLN; ANALYSTS ESTIMATE 8.79 BLN
BE
*NOKIA SEES 4Q DEVICES & SVC NON-IFRS OP. MARGIN OF 1% TO 5%
BE
Is that a profit warning? It’s usually a profit warning.
TT
usually Nokia shares moved 10 per cent either way on its trading statements
BE
Barely changed in Helsinki, by the looks of it.
BE
Not that Nokia’s a belweather for anything any more.
TT
(chuck Norris – good point – very happy to dwell on that aspect of europe)
TT
so Peston first or Europe
TT
or at least a confused one
BE
Indeed. The Merkozy split. The rift. The centre that cannot hold.
BE
So what, exactly, is the news?
TT
Reuters running a report that seems to be a proposal from the Germans for the EFSF
TT
not sure it is any more concrete than any other plan
TT
but even the whiff of nwes seems to move this market
TT
do you have a copy of that report? bryce
BE
Hang on. Reuters is being difficult.
BE
A euro zone country would have to have a sustainable debt and external position to qualify for EFSF support in the secondary bond market, guidelines for the bailout fund obtained by Reuters showed on Thursday.
BE
The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) will be able to buy bonds on the secondary market using its full remaining lending capacity once a request from a country is approved by the ECB and euro zone finance ministry officials, the guidelines show.
BE
The document said only countries which respected their deficit-cutting commitments under the EU budget rules, the Stability and Growth Pact, would be eligible for such help.
BE
To be eligible the country would also have to have a track record of reasonable market borrowing costs, no bank solvency problems and respect its commitments to reduce macroeconomic imbalances.
BE
A memorandum of understanding with the country requesting such help would be prepared by the European Commission and the European Central Bank within one to two days, the document said.
TT
“reasonable borrowing corsts” – does that mean cutting Greece loose?
LP
(I couldn’t resist getting in on this discussion here..)
BE
So what exactly does this mean?
LP
So it’s just about the EFSF stepping into the ECB’s shoes?
LP
JCT would be happy, happy, happy.
LP
But does that mean the BNP CDS proposal has already been upstaged?
TT
that was the proposal revealed this morning
LP
That one was properly mental..
TT
BNP urges EFSF to issue credit default swaps
By Richard Milne, Capital Markets Editor
Europe’s bail-out vehicle should issue credit default swaps to investors buying new government debt from Italy and Spain, according to a new proposal from BNP Paribas, the French bank.
The suggestion is a rival to a plan by Allianz and Deutsche Bank that the European financial stability facility should insure investors against the first losses in case of a default.
The last-minute proposal from BNP, which is in talks with policymakers about it, adds another twist to the intense debate ahead of a crucial European summit on Sunday.
LP
Especially in light of the naked sov CDS ban.
TT
yes you are never far from irony in the unfolding developments in tyhe euro crisis
LP
So the EFSF can sell CDS..
LP
Now, what I can’t help but wonder..
LP
.. is that if the EFSF acts as any sort of CDS dealer.
LP
When will CDS be written referencing the EFSF itself?
TT
i like the line that BNP executives acknowledge it is a tough sell as it comes in the same week as the European Union agreed to make permanent its ban on so-called naked CDS
LP
The EFSF is, after all, a counterparty like any other, right?
TT
(senior muppet – happy to talk about that – email me if you like at tony.tassell@ft.com)
A term of endearment used to describe BB share promoters on FT Alphaville.
LP
Funny at how the same politicians are doing their outmost to avoid Greece CDS triggering.
LP
It’s starting to feel a lot more monoline-ish.
LP
You get “insurance” in one way or another..
LP
And you think your counterparty is good.
LP
But then you start worrying about your counterparty when you realise the size of their liabilities.
LP
(and you worry about the “parents” too, e.g. France, (cough) Italy)
LP
(a) demanding collateral
LP
(b) Buying CDS on the counterparty itself, like GS did on AIG.
TT
i thought Nils Pratley in the guardian had a good line on the risks of using the EFSF as an inurer
TT
quoting Royal Bank of Scotland’s chief European economist, Jacques Cailloux
TT
It is pretty clear that should investors be interested in buying the bonds with the 20% insurance, then the non-insured bonds would likely trade at a premium. The insurance scheme is likely to apply predominantly on new issuance. The existing stock of bonds is thus likely to suffer from not falling under any insurance scheme as it will have a lower recovery rate than the new insured bonds.
“This applies as well between countries. Countries that will not have their bonds insured might also suffer from a crowding out effect and from a price deterioration. This could push countries at risk like Belgium for example into a bad equilibrium. The recent widening in French spreads is also particularly worrying in that context as an insurance scheme on Spain, Italy and Belgium could increase the pressure on French bonds as they would not be insured in the first place.”
LP
Ah, crowding out. Good point. Two tier market creation.
LP
It’s kinda like all that covered bond issuance
TT
the eurozone feels like a giant amoeba at the moment -press one area and the problem mutates into something else
LP
crowding out senior unsecured issuance.
LP
Esp as the ECB is going back in to support covered bonds agagin.
TT
and assessing the outcome of the talks, you have to revert to pop pyschology in analysing the ngotiating strengths of Sarko and Merkel
TT
Merkel the more intransigent one, Sarko the more mad but has more at stake with elections around the corner
LP
And/or there’s this great post
LP
About overconfidence and decision-making
LP
(Just thought I’d lob that in)
TT
it is really worth following our live blog on the home page detailing the latest developments
LP
(Even better.. on having power and ignoring advice http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2011/10/the-decision-making-flaw-in-powerful-people/?)
BE
Ok – are we done on this?
TT
here is Quentin Peel, our veteran Berlin correspondent, on the situation in the bundestag
TT
The members of parliament insist that they be given details of the proposals for the summit, in order to give Angela Merkel a green light to negotiate. But so far they have only seen the “guidelines” for the European Financial Stability Facility, without any details of proposals to leverage the fund’s €440bn into something more substantial.
They have not yet received the troika report on Greece, which is another key element.
The budget committee is due to meet this afternoon, and Wolfgang Schäuble, finance minister, is due to give evidence “sometime between 2 and 4″, according to a parliamentary official. But the finance ministry has sent the committee a letter, admitting that there are still differences over ways of leveraging the EFSF – although the ministry does not use the word “leveraging”, it talks about “the possibility of increasing the efficiency” of the fund.
The original plan was for the Bundestag budget committee to reconvene – possibly on Saturday – to consider the proposals.
LP
Just on the fact that CDS on Germany and France look to be diverging lately.
TT
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2011/10/live-blog-eurozone-crisis/#ixzz1bJfuOVf6
Parliamentarians say if there is no detail on leveraging proposals, they may not meet to give Ms Merkel her green light, which would mean “she won’t be able to do a deal”, according to one official.
As for the EFSF guidelines, they are only in English, so the finance ministry is doing a frantic unofficial translation for the benefit of the parliamentarians. They hope to have it by midday.
TT
on that divergence though, questions are starting to rise about the German financial health
TT
Commerzbank had a German bank view on that this morning
TT
The Tipping Point?
The euro has retained its appeal for global investors because German government bonds – one of the few safe havens – are denominated in Europe’s single currency. However, this also means that if it were felt at some point that the various rescue pack-ages and the euro-zone transfer union were placing too great a strain on Germany’s public finances, the euro would be hit harder as a result of the crisis. The recent rise in the premiums payable to insure against a sovereign default by Germany is a warning signal that the tipping point is not too far off.
BE
Right. Done. Thank you.
TT
Conclusion: Germany must not over-reach itself
Too little commitment from Germany in the euro-zone crisis may well be bad for the euro’s exchange rates. This is because the success of any bailout relies on the euro area’s largest economy being fully signed up to this project. However, a level of support that placed an ex-cessive strain on Germany’s public finances would impose a huge burden on the euro, which could deprive Bunds of their status as a safe haven (at least as far as global investors are concerned). Only then would the sovereign debt crisis have a massively adverse impact on the euro. The fact that spreads on CDS have shot up recently is a clear warning sign. It implies, among other things, that even if the political room for manoeuvre were available, a further huge increase in EFSF guarantees would be a highly risky undertaking. It is already the case that risk-averse investors probably have little alternative to US government bonds if hedging costs are taken into account. This is because in a comparison that prices in hedging costs (i.e. after deducting short-term interest rates) only the current yields on five-year Treasuries now exceed the premiums payable to insure against sovereign default (Chart 2). The more that global in-vestors factor the credit risk on government bonds into their calculations even for seemingly safe countries, the more clearly the advantage enjoyed by Treasuries will become apparent. Some of the US dollar’s recent rally (Chart 3) is probably attributable to this factor.
BE
Oh, and just as a punchline …..
TT
punchlines are usually your department Bryce
BE
This just dropped in via Dow Jones ….
BE
EU Actively Mulls Temporary Bans On Sovereign Ratings
BE
BRUSSELS — The European Commission is “actively” considering allowing the region’s financial regulator to ban the issuing of sovereign credit ratings in the region for countries in bailout talks and if there is a threat to financial stability as a result, a person familiar with the situation said Thursday.
BE
Brilliant plan. Just brilliant.
TT
hah…that is some punchline – great comedy line
BE
Anyway, let’s move on to the market.
TT
there was also line from hugo dixon this morning
TT
Worrying signs #France may be buying slow recap line. Ministers have spoken about 2013 deadline, conveniently after 2012 election.
TT
anyway lets move to wider market
BE
Off 27 points at 5423 at pixel
TT
considering the macro uncertainty – that is remarkable
BE
Been as low as 5363 earlier
TT
what takes your eye bryce
BE
Which is continuing its up-down performance of late
G4S PLC (GFS:LSE): Last: 238.10, up 4.5 (+1.93%), High: 239.00, Low: 224.00, Volume: 8.61m
BE
And I’ve just had an interesting email through ….
BE
Bryce, Neil,
I am [TITLE REDACTED] of Parvus Asset Management. We are currently the 3rd largest shareholder of G4S and we strongly oppose the reverse takeover of ISS.
Let me know if you are interested to discuss further.
Kind Regards
[NAME REDACTED]
BE
London fund. Hedge like.
BE
Been buying recently, it appears.
BE
And have around 3.7%, I think.
BE
This one could get properly tasty, I feel.
TT
Parvus was seed by TCI;s Chris Hohn it seems
TT
do they hold ISS or G4S
BE
Yup – they hold G4S, though not nearly enough to block on their own.
TT
run by former Merrill Lynch asset manager Edoardo Mercadant
BE
Think you’d need about 18%, on usual rules ….
BE
IE. 25% block, and a 75% turnout at the EGM
TT
Telegraph also has reported Lord Rothschild is also believed to have backed the hedge fund.
BE
Anyway, it looks possible that we’ll get a rebellion here. Very possible.
TT
do you have any indications that there is wider support Bryce
BE
Grumblings only at this stage.
BE
And it’s easy money if you’re a hedge
BE
You have to assume blocking would return G4S closer to its pre-deal price of 290p or thereabouts.
TT
and it is not as though this is a slam dunk in terms of being a strategic winner for G4S
TT
Lord Rothschild BTW sent a stinging letter to the editor today
TT
defending the Bumi business model after a pretty caustic leader this week criticising the Rothschild model for undermining the UK stock market
TT
Rothschild IPO model brings listings to London
From Mr Nat Rothschild.
Sir, I am writing in response to the editorial comment entitled “Undermining the UK stock market” (October 18) that called for the relevant authorities to “curb the Rothschild model”. Not only is it strange to personalise an editorial in this way – given the number of foreign mining companies that have listed in London over the past decade – but I would also argue that the model we have employed is part of the solution, not the problem.
We insist on strong, independent boards. In the case of both Bumi and Vallares, the controlling shareholders’ voting rights are limited to less than 30 per cent. Both boards have a majority of strong, independent directors and decisions are taken in a transparent and accountable manner. In addition, we recognise that rolling out UK standards of corporate governance across the business, including operating subsidiaries, is a priority and we have made significant progress in the case of Bumi.
BE
Oh – that was yesterday, but well worth revisiting.
TT
Shares in Bumi have actually slightly outperformed both UK diversified mining companies and global coal companies over the past three months. Investors recognise that we are on track to deliver a strategy that they understand and that will demonstrate significant value over the medium term. Investors have had plenty of opportunity to realise a profit – since Bumi’s initial public offering, the shares went from £10 to a high of £14, a 40 per cent return that investors could have realised at any time – but not the founders, as we are locked in for the long term.
From the days of financing the diamond and gold rushes in South Africa in the early 1900s, London has long been a centre for natural resource funding. As the FT’s Lombard column (“Abramovich switch tests mettle of FTSE 100 index”, October 18) pointed out, it does not wash to argue that index funds are forced to invest in resources stocks – they can, and do, devise carve outs.
It is in nobody’s interest to damage the standing and credibility of the London market – one of the few remaining competitive advantages the UK has. At a time when many companies are debating leaving the UK, the “Rothschild model” is bringing companies to the UK.
Nat Rothschild, Co-Chairman, Bumi, Klosters, Switzerland
TT
ah..i had read it on the ipad which seem to suggest it was today
TT
love the sign-off – klosters
BE
And the argument that you COULD’VE got out at £14 …..
BE
And the implication that it’s a personal vendetta against Mr Rothschild.
TT
anyway that is slightly embarassing – i had misread the date
BE
We can and will revisit the Bumi story.
BE
In the meantime, what were you saying at the top of the show about Pesto?
TT
yes i am not quite as embarassed as Mr Peston this morning
TT
I made total arse of myself at #eicommentawards. And no, it wasn’t a beautifully planned and executed comedy turn
TT
it seems he got on stage at the Editorial Intelligence Comment Awards and announced
TT
that Martin Wolf had won the economics commentary award
TT
sadly and to my eyes inexplicably the award actually was meant to go to Irwin Stelzer of The Times
BE
Stelzer’s good on Newsnight
BE
Didn’t realise he had a column
BE
Times paywall makes everyone invisible.
TT
Editorial Intelligence – always sounds like oxymoron.
BE
Ok – to the signs of life in the UK market
BE
Which, today, are retailers
Marks And Spencer Group PLC (MKS:LSE): Last: 338.20, up 9.3 (+2.83%), High: 338.30, Low: 324.20, Volume: 1.13m
Next PLC (NXT:LSE): Last: 2,615, up 75 (+2.95%), High: 2,616, Low: 2,513, Volume: 209.37k
Kingfisher PLC (KGF:LSE): Last: 260.90, up 4.9 (+1.91%), High: 260.90, Low: 249.50, Volume: 1.88m
BE
After a mild beat on retail sales
BE
And decent numbers from Debs
Debenhams PLC (DEB:LSE): Last: 69.55, up 6.8 (+10.84%), High: 69.85, Low: 62.00, Volume: 8.32m
TT
again it is bit more inexplicable on the general retail trend
BE
Let’s start with the macro.
TT
Chris Williamson, former colleague of Lisa at Markitt, points out
TT
“Retail sales volumes rose 0.6% in September, beating expectations of no change (though broadly in line with the signal of rising spend that we’ve seen from the Visa debit card data index). However, a quick look at the data for previous months is enough to erode any hopes of a recovery on the high street. Spending over the summer months was revised down, meaning we are seeing an even weaker trend in spending than previously thought. On a three-month-on-three month basis, sales were down 0.2% in September, which is a rate of decline identical to that seen in July and August (August had previously been estimated at +0.3%).
“With unemployment at 8.1% and set to rise further, the cost of living increasing at the fastest rate for 20 years and household confidence bruised by worries about the economic outlook at home and abroad, retail sales will inevitably be under pressure in coming months. Retailers are facing a challenging lead up to Christmas and the festive season may be one of the toughest yet that we’ve seen in recent memory.”
TT
i guess any glimmer of good news is a rare event from the high street
BE
Yeah, but the backdated downward revisions seem to be ignored.
BE
Here’s Merrill with a reaction.
BE
Retail sales volumes (ex petrol) rose a robust 0.7% in September: notably above
market expectations of a 0.2% gain. However, that upside surprise was more than
offset by downward revisions to the past: YoY retail sales growth in September
was 0.4%, a touch below market expectations of 0.6%.
The rise in sales volumes over the month was reasonably broad-based, with sales
in household goods stores, non-store retail (mail order, internet) and nonspecialist
stores posting firm gains. But food sales were flat, and clothing and
footwear sales declined moderately.
BE
Retail sales volumes are very volatile on a short-term basis, weighing against
reading much into 1 month’s data. The bigger picture is that in nominal terms,
3m/yr growth in retail spending – at around 3% – is not markedly different from its
average in the decade prior to the financial crisis. However, those increases in
cash spending have not even been enough to pay for price rises in the retail
sector (3.6% 3m/yr). Thus, the volume of retail purchases is down 0.5% 3m/yr.
BE
Retail sales are only around one-third of total consumer spending, and are not
well correlated with the other two-thirds (items such as hotels and restaurants,
hairdressers, and air travel): retail spending has held up much better than
aggregate consumer spending since the start of the financial crisis. While the
economy as a whole (GDP) grew a very muted 0.6% in the year to 11Q2,
aggregate consumer spending declined by 1.5% over the same period: the
consumer has been in recession since the middle of last year. With muted wage
growth, high inflation, tight credit conditions, fiscal tightening and low confidence
continuing to weigh, we expect ongoing weakness in real consumer spending
through to the end of this year.
BE
Retail sales volumes firmer than expected in September: 0.7% m/m (ex-auto fuel) vs 0.2%
consensus (RBS: 0.1%). But downward revisions to back data mean a lower-than-expected
y/y rate (0.4% vs 0.6%) and leave Q3 looking much as expected (-0.1% q/q).
The Q3 retail sales outturn is broadly in line with the inputs into our UK GDP Tracker, so
there is nothing in these data to alter the current +0.5% q/q projection for economic growth
in Q3.
BE
Key theme remains intact: high inflation continues to inflict more damage than muted
income growth. Contrary to popular wisdom, consumers ARE spending money – it’s just
that the inflation overshoot means their money is buying them fewer goods.
BE
Retail sales values are up 4.7% (including auto fuel) and up 3.1% excluding auto fuel on a
3m y/y basis – in other words, consumer spending growth is essentially in line with income
growth. In an environment where excessively-indebted households need to delever, this
spending growth is as much as retailers can hope for.
BE
The deleterious impact of overshooting inflation can be seen by comparing this values
growth (4.7% total, 3.1% ex-auto fuel) with the corresponding volumes measures: -0.1% & -
0.4%.
BE
In September, sales volumes growth was driven by non-food stores (+1.4% m/m). Food store
volumes were flat m/m (not much evidence yet of the much-vaunted supermarket price war
leading to a pick-up in volumes). Within the non-food sector growth was fairly broad-based,
led by household goods.
BE
As for Debenhams ………….
BE
Share buyback announced
TT
(outlaw – former colleague points out that Steltzer said in his belated acceptance speech said : “My opinion of the BBC hasn’t changed”)
TT
and the CFO has departed it seems
BE
Yeah – no-one seems to care overly about that.
BE
Seems highly unlikely he’s left a bomb in the books.
TT
true the buyback is more significant
BE
I think was rumoured last week, by the soothsaying Geoff Ruddell at Morgan Stanley.
BE
Nothing from him yet, so here’s some others.
BE
Investec, for instance.
BE
Debenhams delivered PBT results ahead of expectations, albeit with a
surprisingly large 53rd week contribution of £8.4m. On an underlying basis,
PBT rose 4.4% to £158m. The company has confirmed its intention to
commence share buy backs in H2 of FY12E. It has also announced the
resignation of CFO, Chris Woodhouse, to be replaced by former Kesa FD,
Simon Herrick. Our forecasts and investment stance are under review.
BE
Summary: Having seen 53-week PBT consensus nudge ahead after the
pre-close to just over £160m, Debenhams delivered clean PBT of £166m. This
equated to PBT of £157.7m on a 52-week basis, an increase of 4.4% over last
year. This implies a much larger 53rd week profit contribution than the £4m – £5m
guidance and will require some further explanation. The full year dividend of 3p
was in line with our and consensus forecasts. Net debt of £384m was broadly in
line with previous guidance, with the company confirming it will commence a
share buy-back scheme in H2 of FY12E. Capex for FY123E is guided to
£120m. Our forecasts are under review.
BE
Current trading: There is no quantified current trading commentary, which is
however cautious in tone.
n Changing the guard: Following the departure of former CEO, Rob Templeman,
the long-standing CFO, Chris Woodhouse, is to step down at the end of
January, to be replaced by former Kesa (KESA.L, Hold, TP 125p) FD Simon
Herrick, and previously at Northern Foods.
BE
Our view: We have long been of the view that the combination of self-help
measures and the astute Magasin acquisition (with its margin upside) would
underpin solid earnings progress relative to undemanding valuation metrics.
The point on valuation metrics still pertains, and arguably more so given the
buy-back news. However, the profile of the underlying operating profit
performance from the core UK business – down 10% on a 53 (!) on 52 week
basis – raises questions on the efficacy of self-help measures and their
potential over the medium term. Our forecasts, recommendation and price target
are under review.
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
BE
Well, you can’t have any.
BE
Actually, that’s not true.
BE
There is one story doing the rounds.
BE
Though it does mean we have to retract Milky’s red card.
BE
When he suggested yesterday that Argos might be a target for Amazon
BE
Because that’s exactly the tale doing the loop this morning.
Home Retail Group PLC (HOME:LSE): Last: 103.90, up 4.4 (+4.42%), High: 104.90, Low: 95.30, Volume: 3.60m
BE
Now, there are a million reasons why that should never happen.
BE
And the short base means HOME is very squeezy
BE
Nevertheless, we’re only the messengers here.
BE
Consider that one

BE
In fact, below

TT
maybe Amazon would like to copy the Argos business model world wide – take the little pencils global
BE
The real

has been on about Drax
Drax Group PLC (DRX:LSE): Last: 509.00, up 29.2 (+6.09%), High: 522.00, Low: 471.00, Volume: 2.88m
BE
Which is up on the UK green-lighting biomass tax relief
BE
I’ll cut to Deutsche for a full explanation
BE
We see this morning’s UK government consultation on the Renewables
Obligation Certificate (ROC) banding as a mild positive for Drax.
The indicative numbers may change but the proposed band of 1 ROC/
MWh for enhanced cofiring looks to be a positive starting point and a
signal that the government does want to pay for increased biomass
volumes.
BE
The UK government has this morning published its consultation on changes
to the amount of ROCs which will be awarded to different types of renewable
generation brought on line between April 2013 and 2017. Renewable
generators will receive these ROCs in addition to revenues from selling
power into the wholesale market. The ROCs should have a minimum value
of around £40/MWh for 2013. Currently the UK power price in the forward
curve for 2013/14 is £55.30/MWh – though we expect this to increase as
gas prices rise and power stations close.
BE
The consultation sets indicative levels of support for biomass at 1ROCs/
MWh for ‘enhanced co-firing’ with coal (retaining 0.5ROCs for lower levels
of co-firing and also 1 for full conversion). We see this as a mildly positive
for the Drax share price relative to current levels since we believe that the
market was expecting c.1ROC but with some nervousness about whether
biomass would be abandoned completely.
BE
Drax remains a high risk stock but one where we see considerable upside
driven by rising gas prices, tightening capacity and the potential from
biomass. The table below illustrates how valuation varies depending on assumption
for long run oil (and UK gas) prices, biomass, and capacity tightness.
We remain comfortable with our 600GBp target based on $115/bbl
oil, but with possible further upside from successful biomass.
TT
(breaking – apparently Kweku Adoboli’s lawyers enter no plea and his case is referred to a higher court for Nov. 22)
TT
(Megan Murphy points out A- doboli’s plea hearing will come five days after UBS’s crucial meeting with investors on Nov 17th in New York)
BE
(Oh – I saw the photographers crowded outside the court this morning. Was wondering what the ruling was.)
TT
(TheWord – Murphy very much around – should be doing ML next week)
BE
(@TheWord: fingers crossed. Though he’s a busy man.)
BE
Anyway, anything else caught your eye Tony?
TT
the live blog on europe on the ft.com homep[age has just drawn my attention to a good BarCap strategy note on what investors should expect from the weekend talks
BE
(Disclaimer: other FT blogs are available.)
TT
it is as clear as anything i have seen
TT
We expect the following announcements and commitments:
(1) A clear timetable with deadlines for European banks to undergo new stress tests and to raise additional capital if required (first from private and national sources, but with the EFSF as a backstop), over a period of probably three to six months. A new round of stress tests would be focused upon stricter capital requirements and market-based asset valuations including of sovereign debt held on the banking book. In fact, today’s Financial Times reports that there has already been a re-examination of EU banks’ capital needs recently conducted by the EBA, which concluded that in order for the assessed institutions to reach a 9% core tier one capital ratio they would need to raise only around EUR80bn (or even less). The reason for this relatively small additional capital requirement (in comparison with other estimates of a need of EUR200bn or more) appears to be because the EBA had taken into account current market prices for sovereign debt, including markets where bonds had rallied sharply, such as Germany and the UK, but had not undertaken a full-blown stress test.
(2) Encouragement of existing schemes which guarantee bank debt to be extended beyond year-end via national support (with – potentially – the use of the EFSF also as a backstop).
(3) Details to emerge concerning plans to move towards a “leveraging” of the bulk of the EFSF’s remaining resources (which we would estimate, after deductions from the EUR440bn for the existing ‘troika’ programmes and the second proposed programme for Greece, at around EUR290-300bn). The current thinking appears to be moving towards a partial insurance scheme (based on a “first loss”) for newly issued euro area sovereign debt outside of existing programmes (mainly to address Italian and Spanish needs).
TT
(4) Additional public funds for Greece, and private sector debt relief that goes beyond what was agreed on July 21. We see two alternative options for the EU’s treatment of Greek debt. (A) If a voluntary (“soft”) restructuring were chosen, the details of the new PSI could be announced as early as this weekend. (B) If , however, the decision were in favour of a coercive (“hard”) restructuring, then we would not expect specific details to emerge on revised haircuts for Greece or for additional assistance at this stage. Note that at 11am London time today the Greek parliament is due to vote on the contentious reform of the collective bargaining and the labour reserve and Single Payment Authority issues; if approved, then the ‘troika’ should be able to affirm the sixth installment of aid to Greece under the existing programme.
(5) A renewed commitment by heads of government to push ahead with fiscal consolidation plans accompanied by critical structural and growth-friendly economic reforms. Here we could see a more specific reform agenda proposed.
(6) ECB Securities Market Programme (the purchases of Italian and Spanish debt) to continue with the objective of aiding monetary transmission.
(7) A commitment by heads of government to revise the EU Treaty for euro area countries with a view to shifting some national sovereignty on fiscal matters to more centralized control (under Article 136 of the Lisbon Treaty, which pertains specifically to the euro area and gives power to adopt measures by qualified majority vote on budgetary discipline and economic policy). On this point, any description of the new institutional design (5) will likely remain vague and involve a complex power struggle among the European Commission, large and small member states and fiscal hawks and doves. Nonetheless, it could be that an accelerated procedure for treaty changes, including the possibility of having to rely less on unanimity and more on a qualified majority, can be used under the simplified revision procedure within the Lisbon Treaty).
TT
seems pretty plausible
BE
And before we round up, we should note the Pace profit warning
BE
Floods at its hard drive maker this time.
BE
It’s awfully unlucky, is Pace.
Pace PLC (PIC:LSE): Last: 82.00, down 10 (-10.87%), High: 87.35, Low: 77.00, Volume: 2.78m
BE
Oh, before we do that ….
BE
Merkozone flashes hitting the tape.
BE
Sorry – false alarm – it’s just Reuters getting the guideline docs.
BE
Which we’ll have on the site shortly, and in full.
BE
Assuming Joseph posts soon.
BE
Right – as we were – Pace.
BE
On the face of it, it’s unlucky
TT
(jarvis – told you Noikia seems to move 10 per cent on any trading statement)
BE
Floods across Thailand have closed Western Digital’s factories
BE
Did you know 43% of hard drives are made in Thailand?
TT
nope..but i believe you
BE
However, as ever with Pace there’s a bit of grit in the shoe
BE
They have guided for a $9.5m hit to earnings.
BE
Which, in theory, could put it inside the previously guided range
BE
You have to phone the IR department to clarify that it doesn’t.
BE
Another natural disaster, another profit warning Pace has lowered its FY 2011E EBITA guidance of $150-170m due to the closure of Western Digital’s manufacturing facilities in Thailand. Western Digital is the major supplier of hard disk drives to Pace. In yesterday’s earnings call, Western Digital detailed that “we have shut down our Thailand factories and are at this point not in a position to establish when they will recommence operations”. Pace estimates the worst case impact on FY 2011E EBITA profit to be $9.5m, before taking account of possible mitigating actions
BE
While the interims were in line, this profit warning makes it a three in a row for Pace. The May profit warning was caused due to a combination of inventory build, Japan tsunami, low profitability at Pace Europe and Pace Networks closure. Days sales of inventory increased from 39 in FY 2010 to 42 in H1 2011E due to $25m of components purchased following the Japan tsunami in March. Pace Europe revenues were down 35% YoY (on an organic basis) to $220.0m due to the exit from retail markets, and a reduction in low margin sales in Italy, alongside the profitability issues.
BE
On our unchanged forecasts, the shares trade at a lowly 3.6x CY 2012E EV/EBITDA. Confidence in management remains fragile due to three profit warnings. The near term catalyst now rests on a well defined growth plan from the new Chairman’s strategic review on 17 November, which will be the first step towards rebuilding investor confidence. We lower our target price to 87p (105p) and maintain our Hold recommendation.
TT
(breaking – rumours on twitter that Gadaffi has been captured)
BE
And here’s house broker RBS
BE
On a call with analysts last night, Western Digital (who supply 33% of the hard disk market)
confirmed significant disruption to supply following flooding across Thailand – where most of
the hard disk industry is based. We have yet to hear a definitive statement from other key
suppliers including Seagate (who report tonight) however the impact of the floods is expected
to be industry-wide with up to 43% of HDD production based in the region. Pace has put out a
statement this morning confirming that the disruption will impact trading.
BE
Pace has indicated the impact for 2011 will be up to $9.5m in profit (or 6% of our current
$152m EBIT forecast). This is based on lost revenue from around 300,000 products they
expect to be unable to ship. Given Pace does not manufacture (and so does not have a
significant inventory build) the impact on cash should be approximately in-line with the
profitability impact and no worse, however at this stage it is difficult to quantify the likely
impact for 2012. Western Digital has commented that the disruption is likely to be a multiquarter
issue of 4-6 months. On the assumption of a broadly similar impact in 1Q and 2Q next
year we expect at this early stage we think market estimates may full by c. $20m next year, or
11%. However, we note that currently there is no indication of component availability or
pricing for 2012 so we acknowledge that the range of outcomes could be quite wide.
BE
Allan Leighton’s got his work cut out here.
TT
Europe looks an easier solve
BE
Ok – I’m exhausted. Anything else we need to flag up for the ROTR’s lunchtime reading?
TT
do you want Andrew Garthwaite’s views on Europe
TT
the Credit Suisse strategist
BE
Always. Garthwaite’s very good.
TT
he is a little more positive on the BNP/Alliance proposal
TT
A possible ‘Grand Deal’ on the problems facing the Euro-area has to sort out three issues: the ring-fencing of the rest of
Europe, the recapitalization of banks and the solvency of Greece. In a perfect world, it would also address the most critical
issue (growth). The first three look likely to be resolved over the next weeks-but we struggle to see the Euro-area returning
to growth quickly (even if there are announcements related to EIB infrastructure spending). Bottom line we think a releveraged
EFSF of Eu1.5trn-2trn is required-and that would be enough if growth returns (and thus the leverage calculations
get no worse) and fiscal commitments are maintained. We examine what can go right, the problems and uncertainties.
! What is going right?
! The European politicians appear to be realizing the gravity of the situation;
TT
The Allianz plan of turning the EFSF into a sovereign bond insurer looks promising. This plan gets around: 1) most of the
legal difficulties to do with Lisbon Treaty 123 forbidding the ECB to monetize debt; 2) the German constitutional court’s
objection to inter-sovereign transfers; and 3) the immediate threat of a downgrade to France due to higher contingent
liabilities. The plan is likely to give the EFSF effective firepower of cEu1.5trn-2trn (given 25% guarantees of Spain/Italy and
40% for the rest). This would make the arithmetic work, just.
! Direct sovereign money is likely to be used rather than the EFSF to recapitalize banks in core Europe (but that still leaves
around Eu80bn for peripheral European bank recapitalizations that needs to come from the EFSF or private sources).
! The ECB still seems to be hinting that even after the unveiling of the new plan it could still buy peripheral European debt.
! Any move towards federalisation means that the Euro-area can be viewed more like a single entity-and the aggregate Euroarea
government debt to GDP ratio is below that in the US, while the fiscal deficit is better and the current account is in
balance.
TT
and before i go, i should say how much i am looking forward to the News Corp agm tomorrow..
TT
now rather inconveniently in Delaware
TT
used to cover the agm for the Adelaide News – it was the only time Rupert came back to town
TT
usually placid affairs
TT
tomorrow is unlikly to be that
TT
Tom Watson seems be looking forward to appearing and grilling the Murdochs
TT
a pic he posted this morning
TT
apologies when i said delaware, i meant Los Angeles
TT
i am trying to rival Peston this morning
TT
anyway i should get back to the main news desk
BE
We all strive to rival Pestowire, in our own ways.
Top News from Top Sources. The BBC’s Business Editor, Robert Peston, has played in important role keeping the British public fully informed during these difficult times.
TT
it looks like we will not be short of things to run on the front and second front today
BE
No – busy day, which is good.
TT
always good in our business
BE
Anyway, let’s leave you be and get on with the work portion of the day.
BE
Thanks very much for joining us
TT
the trouble though with ambulance chasing at the moment in europe is that it is hard to know where to drive first
TT
ciao and thanks for having me
BE
Thanks, and good afternoon.