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[Demographics and destiny] New minorities are the new majority

Fascinating data point via the Brookings Institution:

The new Census results show 49.8 percent of infants under age one are members of a race-ethnic minority – up from 42.4 percent in 2000. Given this trajectory, and the fact that the Census was taken well over a year ago, it is almost certain we have now “tipped” racially, and more than half of all national births are minorities. More than a quarter of infants are Hispanic, Blacks and Asians comprise 13.6 and 4.2 percent, respectively. Nearly one in twenty births were reported to be two or more races.

You can click through for more detail on which parts of the country are experiencing this trend most acutely and the breakdown between cities and surburban areas.

But we found this chart to be especially meaningful:

Brookings writes that the gains in minority births, especially for Hispanics, “can be attributed to the growth of the fairly youthful minority populations along with the aging of much of the white population beyond its high fertility years.”

Which makes perfect sense, as immigrants tend to have higher fertility rates than native-born Americans:

As noted elsewhere, there was an absolute decline of white children under 18 nationally between 2000-2010, and it was the new immigrant minorities that were responsible for all child growth.

To take this in a slightly tangential direction, the aging of the US population affects a multitude of economic issues — from future budgets to the labour force to consumer demand to asset prices to the housing market. Increased openness to immigration and to the youthification that accompanies it could have powerfully transformative benefits.

A shame, then, that despite being more welcoming than other advanced economies, the US continues to have such counterproductive policies toward skilled and unskilled immigrants alike.

Does it have to be this way? Often it seems as if the problem is presented as a fixed variable, a mere assumption, in discussions about ways to fix the economy.

Here’s the latest example, coming in a speech that most of us were scrutinising for other reasons:

Of course, the United States faces many growth challenges. Our population is aging, like those of many other advanced economies, and our society will have to adapt over time to an older workforce.

Look, it might be close to impossible to actually reverse the aging trend, but one reason we can’t do more to slow it down is because there are foolish laws in place that prevent just that.

But laws can be changed, and in this case we rather think they should be.

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