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Markets Live transcript 4 Aug 2011

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:36 on 4 Aug 2011. Participants in this chat were: bryce.elder Neil Hume, FT

BE
And good morning once again
BE
Live and direct from a very soggy One Southwark Bridge
BE
It’s Markets Live
BE
FT Alphaville’s daily look at how much the market’s tanked
BE
And, true to form, we’re down again.
BE
Neil will be joining us in a moment.
BE
He’s just working through the retail of the Lloyds numbers.
NH
here
NH
just finishing a post on Lloyds
Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY:LSE): Last: 37.30, down 1.66 (-4.26%), High: 41.25, Low: 35.76, Volume: 137.19m
NH
I think we may regret
BE
(Milky: yellow for capitalisation.)
NH
backing up the truck
BE
Yeah – already under water.
NH
Milky hasn’t got the reverse midas touch
NH
we have
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
BE
We filled our wellingtons at 41.9p, if I remember right.
BE
So that’s down 10.98% in 24 hours.
NH
yes
NH
not a great start
BE
Anyway, we can and will come back to Lloyds.
BE
Let’s start at the top.
11:08AM
BE
So …… FTSE down 43 points at 5541
NH
right
NH
small dead cat the open
NH
following Wall Street’s Lazarus like performance overnight
NH
and then down
NH
falling as we speak
NH
are only hope now
NH
is President Trichet
NH
he needs to pull something out of the hat today
NH
otherwise…
NH
oddly however
NH
Spanish and Italy 10-year
NH
holding up well
NH
so I wonder
NH
are the ECB up to something
NH
are they buying back bonds?
NH
could we get shock and awe today
BE
It’s the miners
BE
They’re what’s stuck the spanner into London’s ointment.
Vedanta Resources PLC (VED:LSE): Last: 1,547, down 93 (-5.67%), High: 1,668, Low: 1,546, Volume: 622.61k
Xstrata PLC (XTA:LSE): Last: 1,128, down 58 (-4.89%), High: 1,195, Low: 1,125, Volume: 6.32m
Kazakhmys PLC (KAZ:LSE): Last: 1,144, down 55 (-4.59%), High: 1,218, Low: 1,140, Volume: 700.73k
Antofagasta PLC (ANTO:LSE): Last: 1,270, down 41 (-3.13%), High: 1,340, Low: 1,268, Volume: 581.88k
Eurasian Natural Resources Corp PLC (ENRC:LSE): Last: 698.50, down 22 (-3.05%), High: 740.00, Low: 698.50, Volume: 560.45k
Bhp Billiton PLC (BLT:LSE): Last: 2,065, down 56 (-2.64%), High: 2,149, Low: 2,055, Volume: 3.33m
BE
…. that’s Billiton down nearly 7% in two days.
BE
That’s quite a move.
NH
it is
BE
Though not quite as big a move as ……..
Glencore International PLC (GLEN:LSE): Last: 404.00, down 22.35 (-5.24%), High: 440.00, Low: 393.30, Volume: 5.45m
BE
Glencoe flattened.
NH
jesus wept
NH
now at 400p
NH
Lordy
BE
530p IPO price, let’s not forget.
BE
Less than three months ago.
NH
another nail in the coffin of the UK IPO market
NH
I’m not sure it can recover now
NH
that’s an absolute disaster
BE
Yes. It is. It’s a disaster.
BE
Nearly every bank in Europe was on the ticket.
BE
And they’ve been destroyed.
BE
All those stories placed about cornerstone investors …..
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
BE
And oversubscription …….
BE
The pre IPO press looks absurd now.
BE
It looked a bit absurd then as well.
BE
I guess we can add the caveats here.
BE
Glencore free float’s tiny.
BE
Little more than 18%
NH
Here are the advisers – named
NH
Citi, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley
NH
no Goldman
NH
David Wormsley one of the lead bankers on the deal
NH
Michel Antakly at Morgan Stanley
NH
another
BE
(@Sir Incompetent: they stuffed clients into an investment that lost £8bn in ten weeks. I doubt that’s done anyone’s credibility a huge amount of good.)
NH
in the interests of balance
NH
we probably should compared the performance of Glencore
NH
post float with the sector and some constitutents
NH
we can run that chart a bit later
BE
Good idea.
NH
right
NH
some breaking news
NH
Break up
NH
at Kraft
NH
Cadbury deal not gone well
NH
CEO under pressure
NH
answer
NH
bust the thing up
NH
RTRS-KRAFT FOODS ANNOUNCES INTENT TO CREATE TWO INDEPENDENT, PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES
10:59 04Aug11 RTRS-KRAFT – ONE CO TO BE HIGH-MARGIN NORTH AMERICAN GROCERY BUSINESS WITH ESTIMATED REVENUE OF APPROXIMATELY $16 BILLION
10:59 04Aug11 RTRS-KRAFT FOODS INC – TO CREATE THESE COMPANIES THROUGH A TAX-FREE SPIN-OFF OF THE NORTH AMERICAN GROCERY BUSINESS
10:59 04Aug11 RTRS-KRAFT FOODS INC SAYS GLOBAL SNACKS WILL CONSIST OF THE CURRENT KRAFT FOODS EUROPE AND DEVELOPING MARKETS UNITS
10:59 04Aug11 RTRS-KRAFT – ANOTHER CO TO BE HIGH-GROWTH GLOBAL SNACKS BUSINESS WITH ESTIMATED REVENUE OF APPROXIMATELY $32 BILLION
10:59 04Aug11 RTRS-KRAFT FOODS INC – GLOBAL SNACKS WILL ALSO CONSIST OF NORTH AMERICAN SNACKS AND CONFECTIONERY BUSINESSES
11:00 04Aug11 RTRS-KRAFT FOODS INC SAYS CURRENT TARGET IS TO LAUNCH THE NEW COMPANIES BEFORE YEAR-END 2012
11:00 04Aug11 RTRS-KRAFT FOODS INC SAYS CURRENT TARGET IS TO LAUNCH THE NEW COMPANIES BEFORE YEAR-END 2012
11:00 04Aug11 RTRS-KRAFT -NORTH AMERICAN GROCERY BUSINESS WOULD CONSIST OF CURRENT U.S. BEVERAGES, CHEESE, CONVENIENT MEALS AND GROCERY SEGMENTS
11:00 04Aug11 RTRS-KRAFT-TARGETING CAPITAL STRUCTURES TO MAINTAIN INVESTMENT-GRADE RATINGS WITH ACCESS TO COMMERCIAL PAPER FOR EACH NEW ENTITY
11:00 04Aug11 RTRS-KRAFT – NORTH AMERICAN GROCERY BUSINESS WOULD ALSO CONSIST OF THE NON-SNACK CATEGORIES IN CANADA AND FOOD SERVICE
11:00 04Aug11 RTRS-KRAFT FOODS INC SAYS COMPANY’S FINANCIAL ADVISORS ARE CENTERVIEW PARTNERS, EVERCORE PARTNERS AND GOLDMAN SACHS
11:02 04Aug11 RTRS-KRAFT – TARGETING CAPITAL STRUCTURES TO MAINTAIN INVESTMENT-GRADE RATINGS WITH ACCESS TO COMMERCIAL PAPER FOR EACH NEW ENTITY
BE
That’s rather undigestible.
NH
GLOBAL SNACKS
BE
Appropriately.
NH
seems a desperate move
BE
With desperate soundbites attached.
NH
from a desperate CEO
BE
“Eighteen months into the Cadbury integration, the company has, in fact, built a global snacking platform and a North American grocery business that now differ in their future strategic priorities, growth profiles and operational focus,”
NH
rubbish
BE
The company said that the snacks business would focus on “fast-growing developing markets and in instant consumption channels” while the North American business would continue to develop its brands distributed via more traditional grocers.
NH
surely they can’t claim this was the plan all along
BE
“Detailed review by the board and management has shown that these two businesses would now benefit from being run independently of each other,”
BE
Complete bobbins.
NH
they just realised
NH
post a massive acquisition
NH
they it would be better to run the businesses separately
BE
So it’s basically Cadbury stuck together with Oreo and Milka
NH
actually the share price performance has not been too bad
NH
up 8% year to date
NH
and it’s performed a bit better than the rest of the sector
NH
this year
BE
Kraft hired Centerview Partners, Evercore Partners and Goldman Sachs as its financial advisers.
BE
Of course Goldman’s in. Of course.
NH
of course
NH
OK
NH
sorry for the diversion
NH
back to the IPO market
NH
for a good read on the topic
NH
this op/ed
NH
by the excellent Tim Steer at Artemis
NH
is worth a read
NH
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8672042/Change-is-essential-if-London-wants-to-remain-an-IPO-player.html
NH
Change is essential if London wants to remain an IPO player
What a mess. There’s so much wrong with Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in the UK that it’s hard to know where to start.
NH
that gives you a flavour
BE
Ta.
11:24AM
BE
Ok
BE
The world has officially entered correction territory
BE
Sound the correction klaxon.
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
BE
*MSCI ALL-COUNTRY WORLD INDEX FALLS 10% FROM MAY HIGH
NH
FTSE off 70 points now
NH
and falling
NH
is there any newsflow
BE
Buyers’ strike.
BE
No counterparties.
BE
No-one has the guts left.
BE
They’ve been carried out on Sky
BE
Laird.
BE
Misys.
Strange software outfit, seemingly controlled by US investor ValueAct Capital.
BE
And they’re being carried out in the commodities again.
NH
can’t see what’s causing this latest sell off apart from oil and metals prices falling sharply
NH
global growth jitters again
NH
rather than PIIGS debt
BE
It’s a tricky time of year to have a panic.
BE
Volumes light anyway.
BE
You try selling something with a tight free float and you’ll have to go down 10% before finding a buyer.
NH
I think what’s needed here is some positive thinking
NH
it we all focus
NH
and thing happy thoughts
NH
I’m sure we can get this market up
NH
sure of it
NH
otherwise
NH
Disappointed at how many are still willing the world to fail for personal gain; sign of the times.
NH
that was a comment on the site yesterday
NH
I don’t want to be accused of that
BE
How dare investors wish for personal gain.
NH
let’s try some Reiki
NH
on that note
NH
there are some risers today
NH
and even one in the mining sector
Randgold Resources Ltd (RRS:LSE): Last: 5,820, up 265 (+4.77%), High: 5,945, Low: 5,710, Volume: 193.65k
NH
smashed expectations
NH
smashed them
BE
And it’s an apocalypse play. That’s hardly in-keeping with our new Buddhist philosophy.
NH
looks very much like they sold a lot of gold
NH
that they could shift earlier this year
NH
because of political issues
NH
Tongon mine
NH
in the Ivory Coast
NH
an extra 31koz of gold sales
NH
which is handy
NH
at the current price
NH
want some comment?
BE
Sure.
NH
it’s from Collins Stewart
NH
Earnings jump up 171% with 33% production increase over Q1: Randgold smashed production & earnings expectations as two new mines helped deliver a 33% increase in gold output, 17% above our estimate, while driving down Q1 cash costs by 10%. Earnings were further boosted by an extra 31koz of gold sales from Tongon, lifting EPS by 171% over Q1, well above our 94% forecast increase. Randgold has returned to stunning form & is well on track to achieve 2011 guidance of 770koz (660koz Attributable). We expect Randgold to perform strongly
NH
Tongon production above expectations, driving growth: Tongon ramped up to 80koz as production constraints eased in Ivory Coast. Production rose 46% over Q1’11 and 17% above our estimate as grades lifted 12% and gold-in-process inventories unwound, providing cash costs of $477/oz, 12% lower than our estimate. The operation is the key growth driver in 2011 and is well on track to hit the higher end of the 260-270koz guidance for 2011 despite the geopolitical situation in Q1.
NH
Loulo underground preparing for stoping to restart in late H2: Development at Yalea continues to be the priority as Randgold finalises the revised mine layout & mining method ahead of restarting stoping later this month. Yalea’s long awaited ‘purple patch’, a zone containing +10g/t ore, has also been reached with potential production in Q4, as Gara intersected first ore. Loulo alone produced 66koz, up 6% Reiterate buy, strong momentum building sector leading growth: These strong results draw attention to Randgold’s leading production growth versus London peers. This result should add confidence that the 76% YoY growth planned will be delivered. We are likely to upgrade EPS by at least 15-20% and clearly need to update our price assumptions as gold continues to run. We therefore reiterate our buy recommendation and 6300p TP.
NH
there you go
BE
Ta.
NH
we should push to the day’s other big riser
NH
(keep thinking positive thoughts everyone)
Unilever PLC (ULVR:LSE): Last: 2,019, up 114 (+5.98%), High: 2,032, Low: 1,979, Volume: 2.47m
NH
before we do
NH
this has just hit the tape
NH
BARROSO URGES REASSESSMENT OF `ALL ELEMENTS’ OF EFSF
NH
which is interesting
NH
in light of this
NH
BRUSSELS(Dow Jones)–Euro-zone governments have begun discussing a change to their permanent sovereign rescue fund that could raise the currency bloc’s total rescue loan capacity to nearly EUR1 trillion, a senior euro-zone official said.
The idea is still in preliminary discussions among just a few governments, the official said. It’s far from clear whether crucial governments such as Germany and the Netherlands, which have resisted committing more money to the euro zone’s emergency funds, will back the proposal.
NH
But it could be implemented relatively easily, the official said, with perhaps less political difficulty than simply boosting the size of either the temporary rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, or the permanent one, the EUR500 billion European Stability Mechanism. And it would send a strong signal to markets that the euro zone is committed to supporting Italy and Spain if necessary, the official said.
With yields on Spanish and Italian debt near record highs since the start of the euro zone, pressure is building on governments to pledge more lending to the currency bloc’s fourth- and third-largest economies.
NH
of course
NH
an upscaling
NH
will take time
NH
probably until mid Sept at the earliest
NH
in the meantime things could go very badly wrong
NH
which is where
NH
President Trichet comes in
NH
only he can save us
NH
the eurozone
NH
and the world
NH
or so reckons Willem Buiter at Citigroup
NH
That leaves only the ECB as lender of last resort/market maker of last
resort/purchaser of securities of last resort for Spain, Italy (and in the final analysis)
Belgium and France. The ECB will have to re-open the Securities SMP and buy
Spanish and Italian sovereign debt outright in the secondary markets if they wish to
limit the decline in secondary market prices. Even before the Spanish and Italian
sovereigns have to come to the markets for large-scale funding (which would
become cripplingly expensive even at current levels), declining secondary market
values of Spanish and Italian would badly hit banks and insurance companies
throughout the EU that hold quite a bit of this debt in mark-to-market form (in the
trading book or available for sale). The ECB has not intervened through the SMP for
months.
NH
As long as the ECB stays on the sidelines, a speculative, fear-driven withdrawal of
market funding can feed a self-fulfilling insolvency for either or both sovereigns. It
follows, in our view, that the ECB will have to come in or accept a couple of
fundamentally unwarranted large sovereign defaults and the biggest banking crisis
since 1931.
NH
We think the choice will be uncomfortable but easy. The ECB may be
trying to extract some form of guarantee for their SMP purchases from the Euro
area governments (possibly through the EFSF, as was granted for Greek sovereign
debt offered as collateral at the Eurosystem for the duration of Greece’s imminent
(selective) ratings default), or a commitment from the EFSF to buy the ECB’s SMP
purchases off the ECB once the EFSF gets the power to do so. But here the
capacity limits on the EFSF are a constraint.
NH
Ultimately the ECB will have to do the
heavy lifting, with or without guarantees. And with sovereign rates for Spain and
Italy already in the long-term unsustainable range and headed for never acceptable
levels, it is key that the ECB move fast and in strength.
NH
there you go
NH
the ECB must wreck its balance sheeet
NH
to save the day
BE
(@FJP73: where do you get a 10% Russian discount? And do you think other aspects of POG might also merit a discount?)
BE
Ok – ta. Press conference is 1.30pm
BE
London time.
NH
yep
NH
prepare for Trichet jedi mind trick
NH
he will say nothing
NH
and then
NH
behind the scenes wade into the market
NH
well
NH
we can hope
NH
(keep thinking positive thoughts everyone)
NH
Lloyds?
11:39AM
BE
Yes, Lloyds.
BE
The rabble seem consumed by PPI mis-selling.
BE
“Idiot tax” …..
BE
“Drain on Core Tier 1″ …..
BE
etc. etc. etc.
BE
Personally, I’m of the opinion that the more the public get refunded for being sold pigs in pokes, the better.
BE
Anyway, that’s all an aside.
Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY:LSE): Last: 36.94, down 2.02 (-5.18%), High: 41.25, Low: 35.76, Volume: 145.12m
NH
yep
NH
reason is impairments
NH
strip up all the guff
NH
and they haven’t fallen by nearly as much as the market was expected
NH
the culprit
NH
is the wholesale banking division
NH
which houses most of the ex-HBOS fat bloke finance loans
NH
markets was expecting impairment of £1.1bn
NH
we got £1.6bn
NH
the legacy of fat bloke finance
NH
will not go away
NH
this explains things
NH
it’s from joint house broker Citigroup
NH
Impairments Above Expectations – 1H11 impairment of £5.4bn is 13% above (eg
worse) consensus and 7% above Citi estimates. For 2Q11, impairments are 29%
above consensus. Relative to our 1H11 forecast, impairments are broadly in-line for
Retail (65bps annualised 1H11, 72bps 1H10, 76bps 2H10) and International (789bps,
656bps, 1129bps) but higher in Wholesale (202bps, 311bps, 131bps). Balance sheet
impaired loans (10.6%) and coverage ratio (45%) broadly unchanged.
NH
big miss
NH
and here’s the JP Morgan take
NH
•Impairments were the main miss vs. JPMe at £5.4bn compared to £4.8bn
JPMe and cons. The main miss vs JPMe was on wholesale loan losses which
were £0.5bn worse than our expectations at £1.6bn in H1 11 (£1.5bn at H2
10), on leveraged acquisition exposures. Irish impairments came in in-line
with our expectations at £1.8bn vs. £1.7bn JPMe but the underlying NPL
trend worsened with a 22% HoH increase in impaired loans to £17.7bn vs.
£14.4bn taking the NPL ratio to 64% (53%) although coverage increased
slightly to 56% (54%).
BE
(@ROTR: impersonation results in a life ban. Just so you’re pre-emptively warned.)
NH
of course
NH
the dog that hasn’t barked today
NH
is UK mortgages
NH
yet
NH
Strangely the mortgage impairment charge has increased to £295m (18 basis points) versus £53m H1 2010, despite the fact that new mortgage arrears are falling and impaired mortgages have decreased to £6.7bn. This leads us to question the assumptions which went into the reported numbers in H1 last year.
BE
Hm.
NH
that’s from Bruce Packard at Seymour Pierce
BE
I find it a bit odd that, overall, asset quality has hardly improved.
BE
NPL 10.6% from 10.3% over six months.
BE
Wholesale down £2bn
BE
I’m not sure this reflects awfully well on previous management.
NH
jeepers – Lloyds down 6% now
NH
36.5p
NH
might be time
NH
to catch the falling knife
NH
and double up
NH
what do you think Milky?
NH
enough on Lloyds
11:48AM
NH
Apologies about this
NH
but we have a couple of disasters to cover
Inmarsat PLC (ISAT:LSE): Last: 378.40, down 110.5 (-22.60%), High: 457.20, Low: 366.00, Volume: 9.03m
NH
a favourite of Byrce’s
BE
Well, interesting business.
NH
not dull
NH
interesting
BE
And I like their office, overlooking the Old Street hipsters in their Etam replica dresses and oversized spectacles.
BE
However ……
NH
mission control – Old Street
NH
they actually run the satellites from there
BE
And the dullest bit of the business ….
BE
That is, the bit that allows fisherman to talk to coast ……
BE
Is the bit that keeps disappointing.
NH
maritime distress signals
BE
That kind of thing, yes.
BE
The bread and butter business, rather than the racy LightSquared stuff, or satphones for Kate Adie.
NH
and that’s missed?
NH
cut guidance?
NH
the cash cow?
BE
It’s what’s sliding, certainly.
BE
Here’s UBS with a handy summary of the various moving parts.
BE
Revenue grew 24.1% to $359m, 3.1% above consensus, and EBITDA reached
$222.7m or a 62.0% margin, 4% above. MSS/Core revenue of $181.3m or a -0.2%
decline is in line, but guidance disappointing.
BE
Guidance for FY11 is lowered from
2-4% to flat, as we had expected, but 2010-14 guidance is now ‘under review’
(UBSe 4.3%, previous guidance 5-7% cagr). Although consensus revenue should
fall this year (currently +1.9%), EPS should be unchanged; however, medium-term
earnings are at risk due to potential for changes to guidance, in our view
BE
Maritime fell 2.5% to $89.2m for the quarter, as voice (due to price cuts) and data
continued to fall. Land was strong, however, with data rising 16% due to North
African and Japanese events. Overall MSS/Core revenue fell 0.2% to $181.3m.
Group EBITDA reached $222.8m, 4% ahead of consensus, with the Core ahead,
Stratos low. LightSquared contributed c$55.8m versus UBSe $47.7m EBITDA.
BE
2011 guidance is lowered from 2-4% revenue growth to flat; we were already at
zero for the year. Medium-term guidance of 5-7% (2010-14) is now ‘under
review’. We are already below at 4.3%. Each +/-1pp cagr 2010-14 is worth +/-6%
off 2014E EPS and 25p off valuation. Shares appear to discount 1% growth in
MSS/Core, pre-Ka band and including UBSe 20% discount (pre-discount 510p).
NH
I see
NH
but a 20% share price fall
NH
that does seem an overreaction
BE
Well, if you’re priced for growth ……
NH
true
BE
And it’s not entirely clear what specifically has gone wrong.
BE
Will cut to Morgan Stanley.
BE
Management is citing 2
factors which are driving the slowdown in MSS, which
are also the most difficult to predict. 1) Migration to
lower ARPU Fleetbroadband terminals continues with
YoY maritime growth likely to be closer to flat; 2) Land
and Aero – impacted by the change in operating status
in Afghanistan from combat to policing, and budgetary
constraint at the DoD. However, the company is
confident that 2012 will be a year of MSS growth driven
by maritime and sales of the ISAT phones. Mid term
guidance is now likely to be reviewed at year-end.
Despite lower revenues, management anticipates
minimal changes to 2011 PBT due to more
LightSquared revenues.
NH
trading down then
NH
and
NH
the Afghan pull out
BE
Which means a lot more depends on LightSquared actually working.
BE
Which, given it monkeys with GPS, still seems questionable.
NH
(@A Reader – in what sense?)
NH
yes
NH
that’s not where you want to be
NH
that was supposed to be the cherry cake
BE
Yes – exactly.
BE
Though you can argue that the market’s now priced in no cherry.
BE
And a smaller cake.
NH
any more comment
NH
I find this company fascinating
BE
It is. The whole Falcone thing was an endless source of intrigue.
BE
Mark James at Liberum, by the way, is a knife catcher on this one.
NH
go on
BE
We remain of the view that the current level materially undervalues both the core business (Liberum estimate £7 a share) and the US spectrum (LightSquared receipts equate to c. £2 a share, but arguably it has more value to US mobile operator should LightSquared fail). Soft revenues in the core have undoubtedly disappointed but the company is still posting growth, through the LightSquared arrangements, that many would envy. H1 revenues grew 20% yoy; EBITDA 28% albeit this is all LightSquared related. The current valuation in our view more than discounts no recovery in Maritime and no value for ISAT’s US spectrum
BE
Not sure about the suggestions on the right about takeover interest.
BE
PE, perhaps.
NH
EADS?
NH
they just bought one of ISAT’s resellers
BE
True. Though does EADS want to actually work the satellites?
BE
I have my doubts.
BE
As it turned out, Falcone chose a good time to exit.
12:00PM
NH
He did
NH
right we must dash to small cap corner
NH
where it’s an absolute bloodbath
NH
looks like force selling
NH
in all of the punters stocks
NH
margins calls galore
Pursuit Dynamics PLC (PDX:LSE): Last: 222.00, down 32 (-12.60%), High: 266.75, Low: 222.00, Volume: 219.83k
Bowleven PLC (BLVN:LSE): Last: 136.75, down 28.25 (-17.12%), High: 173.75, Low: 136.00, Volume: 3.54m
NH
that’s a 50% fall this week
BE
We saw exactly this a couple of years ago, of course.
BE
Immediately before QE rescued the market
BE
And triggered the dash for trash
BE
The flight to sh…
BE
(BOE unchanged.)
Churchill Mining PLC (CHL:LSE): Last: 26.25, down 4.5 (-14.63%), High: 32.50, Low: 26.25, Volume: 90.00k
NH
Pursuit
NH
now off 25%
NH
wow
NH
surely
Xcite Energy Ltd (XEL:LSE): Last: 131.50, down 14.25 (-9.78%), High: 156.10, Low: 131.00, Volume: 826.12k
NH
will get hit
NH
in any margin call crunch
NH
along with
The next supermajor, potentially sitting on 60bn barrels of oil in Kurdistan. Loved by muppets across the globe.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP:LSE): Last: 126.75, down 3.75 (-2.87%), High: 137.18, Low: 125.50, Volume: 3.27m
Rockhopper Exploration PLC (RKH:LSE): Last: 182.00, down 23.75 (-11.54%), High: 209.00, Low: 173.50, Volume: 2.74m
BE
Punter stocks, in short.
NH
investing on margin
NH
sorry
NH
blindly punting on margin
BE
And no-one on the other side of the trade once they have to liquidate.
BE
Creating the spiral effect.
BE
Nasty.
NH
yes
NH
but keeping with the positive vibe
BE
(@Mo: both ex div yesterday.)
NH
there is some good news
NH
from a small cap oiler
Petroneft Resources PLC (PTR:LSE): Last: 37.75, up 5.25 (+16.15%), High: 40.00, Low: 37.00, Volume: 10.04m
NH
big oil find in Russia
NH
this was the big drill for the year
NH
and the results look good
NH
here’s the sector watcher
NH
Some welcome good news from PTR with a potentially sizeable oil discovery in Western Siberia. The Sibkrayevskaya No 372 well was drilled on Block 61 where PTR’s current production comes from, making a future tie-in very straightforward. The well encountered over 12 metres of net oil pay, consistent with other finds on the block. It flow-tested at 170 barrels/day under natural pressure, although this would likely be much higher post-fraccing. Pre-drill the structure was estimated to contain 44 million barrels of recoverable oil, although the group is already saying that this may prove to be on the conservative side
NH
PTR currently has c90 million barrels of 2P reserves, hence today’s find could make a material difference to it. The group has had a poor year to date with a series of production target misses, with the shares more than halving as a result. I’d expect today’s news to help to reverse this, although I suspect that some investors still need to be convinced that the group can sort out its production and potential funding issues. Our NAV currently stands at 69p/share with zero so far added for the Sibkrayevskay success, which clearly gives us potential for upgrades. I’d be a buyer.
NH
and here’s NOrthland Capital partners
NH
Andrew McGreary, analyst at Northland Capital Partners, said: “The discovery adds a sixth field to licence 61 and vindicates the company’s strategy of re-interpreting old well logs to discover potentially bypassed zones. The company already looked good value of the P2 metric with 96.9m 2p reserve and an in house 2P NPV (10% discount) of $454m and is currently producing 2,500 bopd, with ambitious ramp up in production targeted. A mitigating factor is country risk exposure to Russia, but the fields should fall below the category that would be considered a material strategic reserve.”
NH
staying with the small caps
Evolution Group PLC (EVG:LSE): Last: 80.00, up 0.25 (+0.31%), High: 83.32, Low: 79.50, Volume: 530.64k
NH
we know the bidder
NH
Investec
NH
which is both surprising and annoying
NH
because when we talked to one of their people in South African yesterday
NH
they denied it
NH
and their PR in London
NH
just didn’t bother to call back
NH
but as that account is up for review
NH
prolly not surprising
NH
anyhow
NH
Investec are the bidder
NH
offering paper however
NH
presumably that want to merge
NH
Rensbergy Sheppard with Williams de Broe
NH
and then shut down Evolutions Securities
BE
Well, that’s another doomsday scenario ….
BE
Investec does have a broking arm, which you could argue is subscale in some places Evo has people.
BE
There MIGHT be a future for Evo Securities.
BE
Of sorts.
NH
of sorts
NH
if the deal happenns
NH
and that’s a massive if
NH
certainly some people will be retained
NH
but there will be a lot of P45′s going out
NH
right
NH
some comment on this
NH
from Peel Hunt
NH
Investec has confirmed that it has made a preliminary approach to Evolution that may result in an offer for the Group. However the announcement highlights that any offer would be a paper offer.

The underlying logic is undeniable with the Evolution’s securities business bolstering Investec’s existing operation and allowing for cost savings while Williams de Broe would integrate with Rensburg increasing its geographical footprint, increasing the AuM from $15bn to $21bn, while allowing cost savings to be accessed.

NH
What is a realistic take-out price? Our fundamental valuation for the Group is 86p, however it should be expected that an acquirer would have to pay a control premium. Investec paid 3.3% of AuM to acquire the Rensburg minority assuming it paid the same for Williams de Broe (albeit a lower quality franchise) would suggest a value of £198m for the wealth management business. Then simply adding in the Securities business at asset value (£35m) and the surplus cash at face value (£40m) would suggest a value of £273m equating to 117p, some 48% above the current share price.

Evolution is now in play and the announcements seen over the past two days could smoke out additional interest.

NH
makes sense
NH
I just can’t see the CEO
NH
Alex Snow wanting to deal with Investec
NH
especially when its paper on offer
NH
perhaps he can find a white knight
NH
such as
NH
Victor Chu
BE
Aha.
NH
First Eastern Investment Group
BE
Interesting idea.
NH
Hong Kong-based private equity firm
NH
he has been building a stake
NH
quietly in the company
NH
knows Snow quite well
NH
perhaps he fancies owning a UK stockbroker
BE
Here is Mr Chu talking to the Money Honey.
BE
They’ve talked about getting into the UK
BE
Quite recently.
NH
interesting
NH
and I note
NH
that Investec is also rumoured to be interested in NCB
NH
N CB, the stockbroker, is in advanced discussions on selling out to Investec, the specialist bank and international asset manager.

It is understood that the discussions arose following contact between the institutions relating to the 24% stake in the broker bought by Sean Quinn, the founder of the Quinn Group.

NCB declined to comment. Michael Cullen, chief executive of Investec Ireland, said he would not comment on specific deals. “We are on record [as saying] that we are interested in expanding our footprint in Ireland,” he said. “It is fair to say we have been in discussions with a number of entities over the past six months.”

12:15PM
NH
Let’s cut back to the banks quickly
NH
Barclays sub 200p
NH
and after Diamond Bob bought stock
NH
Lloyds off 7.4%
NH
has there been a spike in funding costs
NH
what’s causing this?
NH
why are UK banks being singled out?
BE
Checking the Libor print ……….
NH
OK
NH
FTSE 100 down 70 points
NH
I dread to think what happens
NH
if Trichet doesn’t come up with something later today
12:17PM
NH
While Bryce looks for Libor
NH
USD Libor
NH
which looks to have fallen overnight
NH
we can have a look at Misys
Misys PLC (MSY:LSE): Last: 295.10, down 63 (-17.59%), High: 319.52, Low: 286.00, Volume: 7.16m
NH
now my understanding of the situation
NH
was
NH
of a big bid/offer spread
NH
ie FIS slapped something on the table
NH
that was miles away from what Misys and the biggest shareholders
NH
wanted to sell at
NH
underlying this
NH
FIS was of the view
NH
that post Temenos
NH
and in an increasingly uncertain world
NH
450/60p
NH
wasn’t a price it could justiufy
NH
Misys disagreed
NH
and as evidence by the bullish comments in their last trading statement
NH
claim not to be affected by the problems
NH
facing the likes of Temenos
BE
Right. That all sounds plausible.
BE
Though I’ve one nagging question …
BE
Has Mike Lawrie earned his performance bonus?
NH
I think he probably has – the price had to be above 400p for so many days I believe
BE
It was based on keeping the shares around 400p for a certain amount of time.
Misys PLC (MSY:LSE): Last: 296.10, down 62 (-17.31%), High: 319.52, Low: 286.00, Volume: 7.22m
NH
that’s right
NH
and I think he did that
NH
anyway
NH
analysts reckons fair value is around 300p
NH
although the stock could trade lower
NH
given the uncertain background
NH
here’s David Toms at Numis
NH
After failing to agree on price, FIS has withdrawn from bid talks with Misys. Given the absence of any other bidders, and Misys’s relatively high rating this is likely to be negative for the shares; a sector multiple (which we suspect represents a floor) implies 300p. The bigger question is undoubtedly around trading – at the results last week management gave an upbeat outlook and a staunch defence of why they would not experience the same trading environment as their close peer Temenos
NH
However, the tech sector is clearly moving into a choppier trading environment and Misys admitted that its Q4 was exceptionally back end loaded. Furthermore, in our view CEO Mike Lawrie has been more successful as a deal-doer than an operator and is unlikely to relish the ‘slow grind’ of trying to drive performance. Although management talked a good “independent” Plan B at the results, we wonder if a more likely Plan B is break-up. Our valuation now looks, near term, like a best case scenario; a sector multiple would imply 300p although we suspect that the ‘Lawrie premium’ will not entirely evaporate and also note that, in general, even if the first bid ‘fails’ once a software company is put into play, it nearly always ends up acquired.
BE
Ok. And Investec — speak of the devil — is knife catching for this one.
BE
We think the share price fall on the back of talks with FIS ending provides a
good entry point. The FY11 results provided few surprises (upside or
downside) with the Q4 licences softness (internal delivery related) in T&C not
impacting the bottom line, showing profits are being well managed. While it
may seems a challenging time to turn positive on a financial servicesexposed
business, the resilience of the model was evidence in the previous
cycle and we see further value enhancement ahead. Buy
BE
While there still remains a lot to be proved in the banking division in terms of
generating widespread adoption of Bank Fusion, we would argue that the
indications of success are now the strongest they have been. With growth in the
‘new products’ now outweighing the decline in the ‘old’; this should help numbers.
BE
Treasury and Capital market had soft Q4 licences. The company stressed this is
due to internal delivery issues as opposed to market-related weakness and the
immediate outlook is positive. Importantly, profits were not materially impacted
highlighting, in our view, the sound operational management.
BE
We think the outlook is positive with growth assumptions not set on an overly
optimistic basis, which is crucial in this environment,. We move our
recommendation from Hold to Buy with a 340p target price, set at c15x FY12E
EPS which we see as an appropriate standalone multiple.
BE
Fifteen time 2012 …..
BE
For a company that hasn’t cut guidance …..
BE
While all its peers have.
BE
That looks brave to me.
NH
heroic
NH
not one for Muppet Alpha
A term of endearment used to describe BB share promoters on FT Alphaville.
FT Alpha’s fantasy investment portfolio. We employ a modifed version of cartoonist Scott Adams’s bet on the bad guys for stock selection.
NH
although I guess
NH
there could be a break up
NH
right
NH
anything else to cover
NH
or are we done?
NH
Unilever perhaps
Unilever PLC (ULVR:LSE): Last: 2,009, up 104 (+5.46%), High: 2,032, Low: 1,979, Volume: 2.87m
BE
The rabble are reduced to shouting “WHY’S X FALLING?” at us …..
BE
The answer is “BECAUSE EVERYTHING’S FALLING”
BE
“IT’S HORRIBLE OUT THERE”
BE
Anyway, on Unilever …..
BE
Numbers better
BE
Both on sales and margins.
NH
I see
NH
some comment perhaps
BE
Sure. JP Morgan.
BE
H1 results beat on top line and margin, EPS 13% ahead of JPMe.
Unilever reported 7.1% LFL in Q211 (5.7% LFL in H111) vs JPMe
6.2% and consensus 5.5%. The beat came from strong pricing at 5.1%,
well above our estimates (2.9%) and ahead of consensus (2.6%) while
volumes was 1.9%, below consensus 2.9% and JPMe 3.3%. H111
margins declined 20bps better than JPMe -60bps and consensus -50bps.
Reported EPS of €0.77, ahead of JPMe €0.68 and consensus €0.71.
BE
Q211 top-line pleases on WE. Regionally, WE was strong at 4.8% LFL
(vs JPMe 1%). Western European volumes were up 2.9% (vs JPMe flat)
and pricing +1.8% vs JPMe +1%. Emerging markets remained good
with Asia/Africa/CEE reporting 9.2% LFL (JPMe 10.4%) though with a
marked slowdown in volumes to 3.3% volumes (JPMe 7.2%) on strong
pricing 5.7% (JPMe 3.0%). Americas reported 6.4% LFL (JPMe 5.7%)
in Q211 with -0.6% volumes (JPMe 1.2%) due to inventory reduction in
Brazil and pricing 7% (JPMe 4.4%). Overall while topline has benefitted
from better pricing and a volume impact in ice cream (+4.7% in Q2), we
are encouraged by the company’s ability to price and manage its
volumes.
BE
Margin compression managed with quality of delivery in-line.
Unilever reported 20bps decline in margins with GM –230bps (JPMe -
200bps) offset by -150bps in A&P/sales (vs JPMe -120bps). Regionwise,
WE +50bps (JPMe -90bps), Americas +20bps (JPMe -20bps) and
Asia/Africa/CEE –90bps (JPMe -60bps).
BE
FY11 outlook. Management reiterated outlook for volume outlook and
sustainable margin expansion. There is no mention of input cost
guidance, which was given at Q1 (margin impact of 500-550bps from
input cost inflation).
BE
Valuation. UNA trades on 13.4x PE12E and 8.3x EV/EBITDA12E, a
12%/15% discount to EU Food/HPC respectively on PE basis and
20%/19% discount on EV/EBITDA. We believe the current balanced H1
delivery should call for a relief with improved visibility into H211 and
potential for earnings upgrades.
BE
Unreadable as ever from Caz.
BE
Who may as well write in hieroglyphics these days.
BE
I’ll find something cleaner.
NH
Ok
BE
Investec.
BE
Unilever’ s Q2/H1 has beaten our, and consensus, expectations materially on
the key metrics. However the stronger-than-expected margin result is after
disinvestment in A&P ahead of our expectations. Despite this, we see this as a
decent result in the round: Unilever are defending margins in difficult
circumstances, A&P remains ahead on a two year view, the outlook is being
maintained and Europe was stronger than we expected.
NH
talking of the FSA (as many on the right are) this came out a little earlier
NH
Investment banker and two associates charged with insider dealing
NH
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) has charged Thomas Ammann, an investment banker, with three counts of insider dealing contrary to section 52 of the Criminal Justice Act 1993. Christina Weckwerth, who lives in Germany, has been charged with two counts of insider dealing contrary to section 52 of the Criminal Justice Act 1993, and Jessica Mang, has been charged with one count of insider dealing contrary to section 52 of the Criminal Justice Act 1993.
NH
and the stock
NH
The offences relate to trading in shares between February 2009 and November 2009 of Océ NV.
BE
Oce?
NH
Hardware (printers, copiers and scanners), software, services and imaging supplies.

The entire spectrum of innovative products and services. Developed, produced, supplied, installed and serviced by Océ professionals.

BE
Ok.
NH
and amid this morning’s doom and gloom
NH
we missed this
NH
News Release
Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £200 billion
NH
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £200 billion.
The Committee’s latest inflation and output projections will appear in the Inflation Report to be published at 10.30am on Wednesday 10 August.
The minutes of the meeting will be published at 9.30am on Wednesday 17 August.
BE
Zzzzz.
NH
quite
NH
should have ignored it totally
NH
and because I promised
NH
some comment on
Enterprise Inns PLC (ETI:LSE): Last: 44.00, down 2.49 (-5.36%), High: 48.70, Low: 44.00, Volume: 3.48m
NH
the slightly less toxic pub company
NH
Numis
NH
Enterprise Q3 IMS shows a “stabilisation” in trading for the 18 weeks to end July.
Whilst it remains “cautious about the underlying economic environment” it expects
to deliver full year results in line with expectations. We are holding our forecasts
(PBT £165m; consensus £162m). However, whilst the valuation is undemanding, we
continue to expect the shares to be undermined by uncertainty caused by the BISC
Pub Company Review. We have cut our price target from 100p to 50p, although this
amounts to a reduction in our target EV of just 7%.
NH
Net debt continues to decline, aided by disposals. As a result, bank debt is on track to
be £450m by year end, below the new facility level of £625m. We believe bank debt
reduction and avoiding a cash trap on the Unique bond should remain priorities,
certainly above consideration of resuming dividend payments.
In 2012E, we expect EBITDA to fall by 4% versus a 6% decline in net debt, implying
a small amount of equity upside over 12-months if the company holds its 8.4x
EV/EBITDA rating. In our view, the upside risk rests in a potential re-rating if
political interference diminishes and LFL profit starts to improve.
NH
and Liberum
NH
Trading performance is slowly improving. Net income per pub +1% despite regional differences. Cautious tone on consumer spending is in line with peers. Disposals on track. Guiding to line in line full year results. EV/EBITDA remains stubbornly high but a CY 12 P/E of 1.8x is attractive. High risk Buy.
NH
urrent Trading stabilising – Net income per pub was +1% for the 18 weeks since the interim results vs. -2% in Q3 FY10 (vs. flat in H1 11). H2 11 started well with the warm weather over Easter and the Bank Holiday but trading has slowed down due to poor weather and World Cup comparator. We note that net income per pub has now improved from -8% in FY09 to – 4% in Jan 10 to the current run rate of +1 % today.
NH
Regional Differences – Pubs are showing regional differences: -3% (H1: -5%) in the North, -2% (H1: -2%) in the Midlands and +1% (H1: +1%) in London and the South.

n Cautious Tone – Reiterating what we have heard across the sector, management are cautious on the UK consumer saying they expect the ‘Consumer spending to remain subdued for a considerable period of time.’ This cautious tone is line with peers Greene King (BUY), JD Wetherspoons (SELL) and Mitchells and Butlers (BUY) who have all recently reported declining LFLs.

n Disposals – Enterprise have disposed of 335 pubs with net proceeds of £69m year to date. Enterprise expects to dispose of 500 pubs for the full year generating a total of £110m. There is no guidance for the expected rate of disposals in FY12. The sale and leaseback programme has been largely completed having raised £247m from the sale of 176 properties at an average rental yield of 6.5%.

NH
Debt Reduction on track – The level of borrowings under Enterprise’s bank facility has reduced and is on track to be c. £450m by FY11. We do not foresee dividends or buybacks until EBITDA stabilises.

n EV/EBITDA remains high – The potential for a re-rating of the equity is a slow burn, given that EBITDA continues to fall leaving Debt/EBITDA stubbornly high. The CY11 EV/EBITDA of 8.4x is high, but over time as the debt burden eases and EBITDA stabilises, we think that focus will be drawn to the attractive CY12 PE of 1.8x and FCF yield of 49.6%.

NH
there you go
NH
and before we go
NH
Clive Black of Shore Cap
NH
has just dropped an Ocado note
An internet food retailer that many believe is the second coming of Webvan. Loss making yet valued at close to £1bn on flotation.
NH
into my inbox
BE
Emoticon
Ocado Group PLC (OCDO:LSE): Last: 144.60, down 1.7 (-1.16%), High: 152.30, Low: 144.00, Volume: 378.25k
NH
Oxford is famous for its students riding bicycles and so it may be appropriate that Ocado has announced that it plans to set up a spoke near the city of intellectual spires. The on-line grocer, which largely remains a distributor of Waitrose (John Lewis Partnership) procured and private label products, has announced a further investment in and so the development of its infrastructure.
NH
The business has announced that it has invested in a long-leasehold 43k sq ft warehouse, with an opportunity to take freehold ownership, near Oxford. This facility is expected by the company to be operational in November 2011 and it should improve service levels in the south Midlands and north-west Home Counties, so releasing capacity at its spokes in Coventry & Weybridge; that said the spoke does little to ease capacity constraints at the current single ‘hub’ at Hatfield.
NH
Oxford, Hatfield, Warwickshire…, considerable capital expenditure continues
NH
The Hatfield hub is an interesting item at the moment to our minds as Ocado seeks to expand its capacity through an £80m investment of the site, a cost that we deem to be very substantial as upgrades go. However, the upgrade to Hatfield pales into insignificance when compared to the £210m investment that is being expended at present at the second hub in Warwickshire, which is due to be commissioned by late 2012. This combined investment (c£300m) certainly will increase Ocado’s capacity. However, how quickly and how materially investment returns will flow is another matter, noting as we do the very high fixed overhead of Hatfield to date and the substantial sales base that has been necessary to deliver what are essentially de minimus profits at present.
NH
Indeed, we continue to assert our view that Ocado would be much more effective ‘sealing’ the more affluent London & South-East market than seeking to extend its reach west & north – to us, rightly or wrongly, it suggests a lack of confidence that it can ultimately ‘cut it’ in the capital.
NH
We retain our long-standing SELL stance on Ocado stock

Accordingly, Ocado is not some new investment paradigm to us. Ocado is not Asos (ASC^, No Recommendation at 2063p) or the possibly soon to be listed The Hut! Ocado has it all to do to prove that it can be profitable, cash generative and high returning but if it ever does reach this point that will be some years off. We continue, therefore, to believe that Ocado stock does not merit the stratospheric multiples that it has been trading on (nor do we feel that the incumbent supermarkets’ on-line activities should be accorded such cloud high multiples) and still trades on. And this is the nub of the issue really; Ocado should be much more closely valued on a par with its grocery peers and if it ever does de-couple its returns we can then with some substance, empirical evidence and resolve talk about rating premia and expansion. Until then, we reiterate our SELL stance.

NH
and with that
NH
we are done
NH
many thanks Rabble for your comments
BE
Yes – lively today.
NH
all eyes on Trichet now
BE
Too much corporate news for us to cover inside 90 minuts
BE
So apologies if we missed your pet.
BE
We’ll see you tomorrow, fingers crossed.
NH
bye
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