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Markets Live transcript 21 Jul 2011

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:23 on 21 Jul 2011. Participants in this chat were: bryce.elder Tony Tassell Joseph Cotterill, FT

BE
Good morning everyone
BE
And welcome to another Markets Live
BE
On D-Day for Europe.
BE
If that’s not an inappropriate phrase
BE
As well as totally overestimating the likelihood of anything interesting transpiring.
TT
good morning Bryce
BE
(@Milky: yellow for curiousness.)
BE
And good morning Tony.
TT
Neil is off to the cricket today
TT
a good place to be really
TT
given all the macro uncertainty..best to go away and enjoy the day..and await the outcome
TT
So chakde India, chakde India
BE
Does that mean something, or did you sneeze on the keyboard?
TT
hindi apeakers correct me..but i think it means Buck Up India
TT
from a bollywood film about a Indian girl’s hockey team taking on the dastardly australians
TT
a good film…i think chakde basically is a version of Aussie, Aussie Aussie
BE
Ok. Well, I’m learning something.
TT
anyway i think Chakde Eurozone finance ministerss
BE
……. It was something irrelevant, but at least it’s something.
TT
this will be a great seriess…even the wsj today was asking why Tendulkar has not scored a century at lords
BE
Righty ho.
BE
Anyway.
TT
so how long does a French eurozone plan last?
TT
the life cycle seems pretty limited
BE
Hang on.
TT
go ahead Byrce
BE
Before we update our obituary of the eurozone.
TT
(TK: yes but he is about the hardest working person i know)
BE
There’s a big deal in the US just hit the wires as we came on air.
BE
*EXPRESS SCRIPTS TO BUY MEDCO FOR $29.1B CASH, STOCK
BE
Medco, I think, manages pharmacy benefit programmes.
BE
Or programs, if you prefer.
BE
Spun out of Merck about a decade ago.
BE
Doubt there’s any readthrough for anyone else, and certainly not over here.
BE
However, it’s big M&A, and that’s encouraging.
11:11AM
TT
i believe that is in your area of specialty knowledge Bryce
BE
Um?
TT
you werre advising Jon Ronson on drugs last night it seems on twitter
TT
the conspiracy book author that is
BE
Tony. Please. I take no responsibility during work hours for the rubbish I type on the twitterscope.
BE
There’s a Chinese wall
TT
i thought it was quite informed…
TT
“the top-selling class by value are antipyschotics. But atypical antipsychotics are expensive, as no generics yet”
BE
Yeah – well, what can I say. I know my antipsychotics.
TT
speaking of pyschotics..shall we to to the eurozone pols?
BE
Yeah – we can return to drugs later.
BE
So to speak.
BE
Ok – what can we expect?
TT
well we had this scoop this morning on the last french plan to succeed the plan before that last night
TT
Sarkozy drops bank tax proposal

By Peter Spiegel and Quentin Peel in Brussels

French president Nicolas Sarkozy has agreed to drop a plan to help fund a €115bn Greek bail-out with a €50bn bank tax, a significant victory for Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, who extracted the concession at a late night meeting in Berlin ahead of an emergency summit of eurozone leaders.

The tax plan, which would have raised €10bn a year for five years through a 0.0025 per cent levy on all assets held by eurozone banks, was strongly resisted by Berlin, which saw the plan as taking too long to implement and raise funds, which would have been used for a massive Greek bond repurchase programme.

TT
he deal paves the way for a German-backed initiative for more direct measures to get private holders of Greek bonds to help pay for the bail-out. According to a version of the plan circulated by the European Commission on Wednesday evening, all owners of Greek bonds that come due in the next eight years will be urged to swap their holdings for new bonds that do not mature for another 30 years. Other plans, however, including a French-backed bond rollover plan, are believed to still be on the table.
TT
so it seems a “selective default” is the meme of the day perhaps
BE
Hm.
BE
Some interesting heads hitting the tape now too.
BE
*GERMANY’S HOYER DOESN’T RULE OUT EURO BONDS FOREVER
TT
doesn’t hoyer mean today in spanish?
BE
Does it? Mañana would be more appropriate.
BE
So, can we preview what the sellside expects?
BE
“Selective default” is today’s buzzphrase.
TT
well many of those scribblers are being forced to rewrite their notes from last night
TT
i thought the best read came from Carl Weinberg from High Frequency Economics
TT
If we are right, and the summit does not deliver what the market needs to see, trading tomorrow will look like Monday’s only starting from a worse position. It will be a bloodbath for bonds and the euro. One can only figure that it will be a matter of weeks before Greece runs out of cash and defaults. If governments elect to triffer a default on purpose at this summit, then bonds will be downgraded to default ratings at once and the banking sector will be shaken to its core within days. The euro will crash, too.
TT
If this summit surprises us with a real banking solution to greece’s woes that does not trigger a default and that does provide relief to this troubled borrower for more than a few weeks at a time, we will be delighted to watch the euro soar and the risk-aversion trades reversed in the market. Think though…when was the last time you were surprised in a positive way by the results of a Euroland summit.?

Place your bets! Or , take the day off and go to the casino. The odds are about the same.

TT
or the cricket it seems
TT
i really like the line: when was the last time you were surprised in a positive way by the results of a Euroland summit.?
BE
Well, indeed.
BE
HSBC’s also pedalling hard to rein in expectations.
BE
(Sorry. Mixed metaphor. Yellow.)
BE
Markets have been warned NOT to expect anything spectacular from this afternoon’s summit: in other words, no
permanent solution but more interim measures. A Franco-German position was reportedly agreed last night. We
expect an enhanced EFSF to offer longer maturity loans, lower rates and flexible credit lines for countries not in EU/
IMF programmes. Private sector involvement in a new medium-term deal for Greece is likely to involve bond maturity
extensions and either a bond exchange or a bank levy. In the event of selective default, we expect alternative collateral
to be provided to Greek banks.
BE
And here’s the selective default analysis.
BE
Basically, the gist is that it’s inevitable no matter what.
BE
Based on all the news stories, the PRIVATE SECTOR INVOLVEMENT (PSI) in a new medium-term package for Greece
could take four forms:
BE
1) EFSF buys Greek bonds back at market value – using either the proceeds raised by issuing EFSF bonds or directly in
exchange for EFSF bonds. This could include buying the bonds held by the ECB. It is unclear how much this would lower the
stock. If only by a small amount, rather than something that would make Greece’s debt burden look sustainable, the market
would likely immediately take the view that there would be another reduction further down the road. Press reports suggest the
reduction in the debt stock as a result of the various options under consideration could be of the order of 20-25%.
BE
2) EFSF lends money to Greece to buy back some of its debt at or slightly above market value. It should be noted that
currently the EFSF has no ability to pre-fund. It can only issue bonds to deliver each tranche of funding in exchange for strict
conditionality.
Either of these first two options would require changes in legislation to be passed in national parliaments so could not be
implemented immediately.
BE
3) Greek bond exchange programme: this would, to some extent, be a resurrection of the French rollover plan but presumably
with lower interest rates (the French proposal involved an interest rate of 5.5% plus the GDP growth rate of up to 2.5%).
Private debt holders would be “encouraged” to swap their existing bonds coming due in the next eight years for new 30-year
bonds. Some kind of credit enhancement (possibly collateralisation or some kind of GDP-linked uplift could be offered).
BE
All of the three options above would likely result in Greece being downgraded to selective default.
TT
(enjoying the mixed metaphors)
BE
Though there is a fourth way …
BE
4) Bank levy – there has been no explicit statement by the ratings agencies but this is probably the only PSI option that would
likely not cause Greece to be downgraded to selective default. Press reports suggest the levy would amount to 0.0025% on
all bank assets and could raise about EUR10bn per year for five years. The EUR50bn raised could be used to guarantee the
EFSF or fund a bond buyback programme by the EFSF. It could even be used to subsidise the interest rate that Greece pays in
the next few years. The French government is pushing very strongly on this as it would avoid selective default but it currently
seems the German government would not accept this as sufficient private sector participation. In addition both the French and
German banking sectors have come out against this proposal.
TT
from the buyside i thought it was very interesing what larry fink was saying yesterday on the conference call on the blackrock results
TT
basically saying why have the pols cracked down harder on bond investors like Blackrock
TT
Larry Fink, chief executive, blamed politicians on both sides of the Atlantic for the unclear path of government policy over sovereign debt.

“What is driving much of the lack of confidence and uncertainty is politics globally,” he said, warning that attempts in Europe to “place all the burden of the restructuring on the backs of the populace” risked social unrest in the years ahead.

“They are forcing these changes in the standard of living without ever discussing the possibility of bondholders getting less than par. I don’t look at that as a positive outcome.”

BE
(@Swedes: as a reviewer, Self is a very entertaining eccentric.)
TT
there might be a bit of bill grossery in that it..blackrock may or may not be short…but it was revealing..and fink is a very connected, very smart guy
TT
anway it is going to be late night i assume…the meeting offically starts at 1pm
TT
any bets on when it will finish
TT
they will have to finish dessert first
BE
The assumption is that the first presser will happen around 2pm here, 3pm local.
TT
and the after dinner port
BE
Yeah – plenty of that.
TT
ok…i assumed they would not strke a deal by 2pm
TT
maybe the dinner was last night that decided things
BE
Ok – quick whip adound the stress indices via Markit and then let’s move on.
BE
Markit iTraxx Europe S15 117.5bp (-0.5), Markit iTraxx Crossover S15 436.5bp (-1.5)
BE
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe S5 280bp (-1)
BE
Markit iTraxx Senior Financials S15 174bp (-1.5)
BE
Markit iTraxx Subordinated Financials S15 305bp (-1.5)
BE
Sovereigns – Greece 2300bp (-59), Spain 342bp (0), Portugal 1072bp (-23), Italy 282bp (-4), Ireland 1050bp (-19)
TT
Marc Ostwald at Monument had a good idea..sadly not one he thinks will be adopted
TT
A rather better solution would be a colossal Treuhand style fund, using peripheral “to be privatized’ assets as part of its collateral base along with guarantees from the Eurozone govts, which should in theory serve to underpin a solid valuation of those assets, put pressure on the peripherals to push ahead with privatizations, as well as limiting core country tax payer liabilities via acting as a quasi-securitization. All far too pragmatic as a solution, and thus unlikely to ever be realized.

BE
Oh – hang on …..
BE
One of the rabble just posted something remarkable.
BE
Accidentally gone live, it appears.
BE
Pre agreement.
BE
Joseph’s currently making sense of this, so expect a post shortly.
TT
how final is it?
BE
Joseph – can you join us?
TT
Joseph coming now
TT
we are just reading it…
JC
Hello! Seems pretty final – legal language seems all done and dusted
JC
OK, this is weird. Basically, for example – this amendment text has stuff on the EFSF buying bonds
JC
Which is not confirmed or agreed upon, officially
JC
Will grab the relevant bits
JC

(2) Paragraph (2) of the preamble of the Framework Agreement shall be
amended as follows:
(a) the words “or, as an exception, the facilities for the purchase of bonds
in the primary market as financial assistance” shall be added after the
words “in the form of loan facility agreements” and prior to the words
“(“Loan Facility Agreements”) and loans”;
(b) the words “or such exceptional purchases of bonds in the primary
market” shall be added after the words “(“Loan Facility
Agreements”) and loans” and prior to the words “(“Loans”) made
thereunder”; and
(c) the words “If, as an exception, stability support to a euro-area
Member State is provided by way of facilities for the purchase of
bonds in the primary market as financial assistance, the nature and
terms, including as to pricing, of such arrangements shall be in
accordance with guidelines adopted by the board of directors of EFSF
pursuant to Article 2(1)(b).” shall be added at the end of the preamble
JC
And also on expanding lending capacity
JC

(6) In Article 2(3):
(a) after the words “the percentage set out next to each Guarantor’s name
in the third column (the “Contribution Key”) in Annex 2″, a footnote
is added drafted as follows “In respect of Funding Instruments issued
or entered into prior to the Effective Date of the Amendments the
Contribution Key and Adjusted Contribution Key Percentage shall be
determined by the terms of this Agreement (including Annex 2) prior
to the amendments.”;
(b) in item (b), “120%” shall be replaced by “up to 165% (the “OverGuarantee Percentage”) in respect of Funding Instruments issued or
entered into after the Effective Date of the Amendments”
TT
(FTReader…that is pretty telling then..if it was last modified on July 14)
TT
a lot has happened since then..even since this morning
TT
ok..our news desk is checking it out…i am not sure how much we can read into it…given the date of the last the modification
BE
Ok – let’s move on.
TT
Meanwhile Neil reports: “Start delayed. India won toss and will field. I am in the grandstand.”
11:34AM
BE
Nokia results out. 10 cent loss per share, though no worse than expected.
BE
Nokia numbers used to be a bellwether moment. No more.
BE
Poor old Nokia.
TT
nokia usually moves a lot on results..how have they done Bryce
BE
Up. 3.2% at pixel, assuming my Reuters isn’t broken.
TT
(Goodfella…we were going to turn to that shortly…King’s sales might have have been driven by personal matters to put it delicately)
BE
Actually, let’s cut to Sainsbury since everyone’s asking about it.
J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY:LSE): Last: 307.80, down 5.3 (-1.69%), High: 314.40, Low: 307.40, Volume: 3.66m
BE
After this RNS
BE
Justin King no longer holds a beneficial interest in the shares held by Claire King
BE
Number of shares, debentures or financial instruments relating to shares disposed

700,000 shares

BE
I think Tony’s comments are sufficient here.
TT
mind you he could have taken a bearish view of the stock after making the split with Jamie
TT
Jamie Oliver that is…
BE
(Mrs Martin: read between the lines, I suggest. We’re not a diary column.)
BE
There’s also been a queue of analysts knocking the sector of late.
BE
With the same arguments we’ve been making for ages.
BE
Deluded levels of space expansion, online cannibalisation, consumers under pressure.
BE
Citi had a huge note out on this yesterday, which I’ll dig out if anyone’s interested.
BE
However, it doesn’t seem you are particularly
BE
So let’s move on to another mover.
11:41AM
TT
any raw around Bryce…
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
BE
Very, very, very little.
BE
Unless you’re particularly interested in Sundance Resources.
TT
the film festival?
TT
dont tell me robert redford has succummbed to the mining boom
BE
Sadly, not.
BE
This is the Oz company being bought by the Chinese
BE
Hanlong Mining
TT
there might be an interloper i hear
BE
Yeah – that’s the theory
BE
AFR reporting that a “‘big five miner” is in the data room.
TT
does that big five miner begin with an X?
BE
Possibly.
BE
AFR – which tends to get this stuff right, needless to say – suggests it’s not one of Australia’s big three miners.
TT
AFR is a good paper..pretty reliable downunder
BE
…. Which is likely to mean either Xstrata or Anglo.
Xstrata PLC (XTA:LSE): Last: 1,319, down 46 (-3.37%), High: 1,371, Low: 1,312, Volume: 3.80m
TT
how much is sundance worth?
BE
Hanlong’s bid’s pitched at $1.4bn.
TT
(soundbuy – Australian Financial Review…one of the few non-murdoch papers left in Australia…)
BE
Though I think it’s an open secret that the advisors wouldn’t discourage an auction.
TT
they seldom dont
BE
Apparently it would be a good fit for Xstrata because it already owns the Zanaga iron ore project in Congo-Brazzaville, where Sundance has a plot.
BE
Anyway, that’s about your lot for raw.
BE
Bar this story about a huge silver trade on Comex last night.
BE
Which — and I apologise for the source here — seems to have been propagated by a Youtube chartist’s video.
BE
Make of that what you will. Personally, I’m making nothing of it.
BE
Miners as a sector, of course, are down on the weak Chinese PMI
BE
A preliminary reading of the Purchasing Managers’ Index
reported by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today showed
a drop to 48.9 for July, a 28-month low. China’s central bank
has raised interest rates to curb inflation. European
manufacturing and services slowed more than estimated as
governments attempt to contain the region’s debt crisis.
Kazakhmys PLC (KAZ:LSE): Last: 1,311, down 35 (-2.60%), High: 1,351, Low: 1,305, Volume: 464.03k
Bhp Billiton PLC (BLT:LSE): Last: 2,318, down 46.5 (-1.97%), High: 2,370, Low: 2,301, Volume: 2.61m
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO:LSE): Last: 4,307, down 114 (-2.58%), High: 4,434, Low: 4,290, Volume: 2.09m
11:50AM
BE
Ok Tony – you’re partaking in luncheon I believe.
BE
So best kick on. What now?
TT
well how about this for a headline to prove the world has gone mad
BE
Go on.
TT
Bob Diamond ‘lands David Cameron’s plane’
TT
from the telegraph
TT
irreristable
TT
Bob Diamond, the controversial chief executive of Barclays Bank, is at the centre of a security storm after it was claimed he had been allowed to land the prime minister’s plane despite not having a pilot’s licence.
TT
The millionaire was said to have taken control of the chartered Virgin Atlantic flight as it returned to London from David Cameron’s tour of Africa.

As the jet touched down at Heathrow a member of the flight crew announced to passengers that “Captain Bob Diamond” had performed an “exemplary landing”.

He also joked that he had been in charge of the take off from Nigeria six hours earlier and said: “It shows there is really no need to grow up,” the Daily Mail reported.

Both Virgin and Barclays strongly denied that the £95 million banker had been in control of the plane but admitted that he had been in the cockpit during the landing.

Under laws brought in in the wake of the September 11 attacks, passengers are forbidden from being in the cabin while the engines are on.

BE
Ah. Right. I feared “landing his plane” might be a euphemism …
TT
A spokesman for the Department for Transport said: “Passengers are not permitted in the cockpit while the engines are running. The rules apply to all UK-registered planes and to any plane operating in UK airspace.

“Clearly we will investigate details of the alleged incident.”

Among the passengers on the Airbus A340-300 were the prime minister, the International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell, Trade minister Lord Green and Vittorio Colao, the chief executive of Vodafone.

Virgin Atlantic said Mr Diamond had been in the fold-down “jump seat” in the cockpit behind the pilot but was not in control of the plane.

A spokesman said the announcement was “tongue-in-cheek”.

TT
well i could imagine him taking over the controls, putting the plane into a nosedive and threatening to crash unless Cameron agreed to do what he wanted
TT
he is one for brinkmanship diamond bob
TT
(JS-C – oh he is very big on Africa…there are lots of pics with smiling kids in the background to prove it too)
TT
the tele link was
BE
He could also jettison half the baggage onto the wings and claim the plane was of better underlying quality
BE
The potential for metaphor here is endless.
TT
(david wallace…we are indebted to you)
TT
PERTH (miningweekly.com) – The Australian mining industry was left reeling on Tuesday as news broke that the wreckage of the aircraft chartered by iron-ore explorer Sundance Resources was found in the Republic of Congo.

No survivors were found.

The aircraft, carrying the entire Sundance board, went missing on Saturday as board members made their way to the company’s Mbalam iron-ore project, on the border of Cameroon and the Republic of Congo, to conduct high-level meetings with government representatives of both countries.

The chartered aircraft was carrying chairperson Geoff Wedlock, MD and CEO Don Lewis, company secretary John Car-Gregg, and nonexecutive directors Ken Talbot, John Jones and Craig Oliver.

Four other people, including the two pilots were also on board.

Sundance had suspended its operations in the two countries to focus its attention on search and rescue operations, and a detailed air and ground search was launched.

The explorer said on Tuesday that the crash site had been secured, with two Sundance contractors and a representative of the French Military remaining with the bodies.

Given the remoteness of the crash site, Australian mining contractors located in the vicinity would commence clearing access tracks to the accident site.

BE
Didn’t know that. It’s nice when these sessions develop a theme accidentally.
BE
It makes it look like we know what we’re doing.
TT
hah..that would be a first
TT
why would you put your whole board on a plane heading for the congo…
BE
Yeah – I’d have thought Royal Family rules would apply.
BE
Anyway, let’s push on.
11:58AM
TT
anyway i have to run..a lunch awaits with some very shrewd fund managers at Artemis
TT
in house..
TT
it will be good to escape neil’s desk..
BE
The Coffee Cup of Doom.
TT
let me describe it…
BE
Go on then. You won’t be the first to complain.
TT
on it currently there is a an I heart the FTintranet.com, a bottle of champagne, a collection of random ties, the wedding pic of kate and wills on the computer screen, a bio of Margaret Thatcher – the Downing street yeaers, a wash bag, several pairs of shoes, phone chargers
TT
quite someting…
BE
Yes. It has character.
TT
a tin of illy coffee, some effervescent tablets, and a research report on the super-cycle
BE
Anyway, we should give a cursory glance to the market.
TT
anytime enough rambling..
TT
sounbuy..yes it is…still there
BE
FTSE rallying, I think in tandem with Wall Street futures
BE
There’s no other obvious reason I can see, and US earnings were solid overnight.
TT
i need to run..thanks for having me..very kind..it is an honour as always..keep looking at ft.com for updates on the summit meeting….
BE
FTSE now off just 15 at 5838
BE
Ok – ta Tony.
TT
ciao…
BE
I’ll wind up with the requests.
BE
Firstly, Pace.
Pace PLC (PIC:LSE): Last: 106.90, down 3.4 (-3.08%), High: 111.50, Low: 104.10, Volume: 1.28m
BE
Numis downgrade
BE
While there is potential to build a good business following a strategic review, the
transition could be painful. It may be necessary to refinance the US$300m net debt
position with equity, since it exposes the business to significant risk if there are
further issues in Pace Europe or if it sustains a shock to demand. Consequently
despite an inexpensive P/E of 5.3x FY11E, we remain cautious ahead of the H1
results and downgrade to Reduce from Hold.
BE
That’s ahead of results on July 26.
BE
And precedes Allan Leighton’s kitchen sinking.
BE
While the transition is likely to be beneficial long term, in the short term it may be
somewhat painful, particularly in light of the US$300m net debt position. We are still
conscious of further potential issues in Pace Europe and also believe there is a
significant risk that the disruptive market environment could cause a shock to demand,
which would have a material impact on earnings estimates and cash generation.
BE
In these types of scenarios a refinancing of the balance sheet is likely to be necessary.
Consequently despite P/E of 5.4x FY11, we remain cautious and downgrade to Reduce
from Hold, maintaining our 90p TP. Pace will now report in US$ and we publish our
US$ forecasts with this note.
12:05PM
BE
Update from Joseph re the developing EFSF story.
BE
mea culpa on that EFSF amendment. Seems this is what was agreed earlier – keyword is *exceptional* bond purchases in primary auctions but not general permission to buy bonds in secondary markets. Sorry! It’s confusing because it’s been announced and re-announced as a new thing several times over.
JC
Yeah – many apologies. Complete fail by me. Seeing double
BE
Hazard of the need to be instant.
JC
Well, exceptional buying in primary markets = v different from buying at will in the secondary market. Latter being the key – and still very undecided – issue here.
JC
Sorry again!
BE
(@Fatdaz: I may well be entirely wrong on this, but I vaguely remember that Virgin’s Tivo boxes are made by Scientific Atlanta and/or Samsung.)
BE
Ok – no worries, I really fancy closing this session early today.
BE
Is there anything else you require, Rabble?
BE
Halfords, I think, was mentioned.
BE
Trading statement reveals Q1 weak-ish.
Halfords Group PLC (HFD:LSE): Last: 339.50, down 17.7 (-4.96%), High: 352.00, Low: 331.20, Volume: 1.24m
BE
Retail still rubbish.
BE
Satnav market dead.
BE
Though that auto repairs thing they bought has hit some kind of stability.
BE
Here’s UBS with the detail.
BE
Halfords reports a slightly weaker than expect Q1 update, with Retail LFL sales
and gross margin weaker than at the 9 week stage. Total sales growth of 0.3% is in
line with our H1 forecast (UBSe +0.4%). We expect consensus PBT (£107m
Reuters) to nudge down 3-5%, condensing towards the lower end of the current
range (£100m – £112m, UBSe £100m).
BE
Retail LFL sales growth is -1.1% for the 13 weeks to 1 July. Retail is weaker than
we expected given the positive start to the period (+0.8% reported for first 9
weeks) implying LFL sales of -5.4% for the last 4 weeks. The gross margin
guidance has slipped to -100bps for the full year (previously “at least -30 bps”),
reflecting increased promotional activity as tents and travel solutions sales
struggle. We expect the weak conditions to continue and forecast -1% LFL sales
growth for the remainder of the year.
BE
The rebranding of Autocentres has boosted sales, and in the last 4 weeks LFL sales
have improved to +4.1% from +1.2% for weeks 1-9. Autocentres contributes c5%
to Group profits.
BE
(US results update: Pepsi bang in line, both PMI and Baxter beat and raise.)
BE
(FTSE now down just 12 points.)
BE
Haven’t looked at Dragon Oil I’m afraid.
DRS Data and Research Services PLC (DRS:LSE): Last: 20.00, no change, Volume: 0.00
BE
Oh – come ON!
BE
Why isn’t the ticker DRS?
Dragon Oil Public Ltd Co (DGO:LSE): Last: 555.50, up 5.5 (+1.00%), High: 558.50, Low: 541.00, Volume: 223.64k
BE
There we go.
BE
Matrix, which has been a fan forever, is talking about it as a bid target.
BE
“offers strong M&A potential”
BE
In Cheleken, Dragon has an excellent asset that would be a good fit for NOCs seeking production and reserves growth”
BE
That kind of thing. 650p target.
BE
And here’s Nomua’s view.
BE
Dragon Oil reported strong production growth in 1H 2011, significantly
ahead of its 20% guidance. The company reiterated its 2011–13
guidance of 10–15% pa production growth. We see upside risk to
guidance, driven by strong production volumes, increased drilling activity
and infrastructure expansion plans. Strong production volumes, coupled
with robust oil prices, appear to have strengthened the company’s
financial position during the half year. A strong cash balance should
provide the company with financial flexibility to maintain its dividend
payout of c.20% and/or pursue its M&A strategy. Given Dragon Oil’s
management links to the Middle East, we view the business as well
positioned to build a legacy position for the long term, possibly unique
among its peers. We reiterate our Buy rating and target price of 795p.
BE
And Davy.
BE
Management has revised its 2011 development programme to include 12 wells, a
sidetrack and a workover versus 11 wells previously targeted. The additional activity will come later
in the year and as such will have more of an influence on 2012′s production number as opposed to
2011. This is probably just as well given the slight delay in the Super M2 jack-up rig, which will be
delivered in Q1 2012 rather than Q4 2011.
Production in H1 was 58,000 bopd, which represents a very strong year-on-year growth rate of 25%.
However, production in Q2 2011 was little changed from Q1 2011′s rate of 57,800 bopd despite
incremental production from effectively four development wells in Q2. For this reason, we believe
management is inclined to maintain its comfortable target of up to 20% production growth in the
entire year.
BE
Dragon sold 4.9 mmbbl or 90% of its net production in H1. Its realised price was $100 per bbl (Davy
FY2011 forecast: $88 per barrel). Cash net of decommissioning funds at the end of June was
$1,256m (end-December: $1,163m). Capex in H1 was $151m and guidance for the full year is for
capital expenditure on infrastructure to range from $200-250m as opposed to previous guidance of
$250m. The three-year (2011-2013) development programme remains broadly on track, and Dragon
is planning to tender for additional platforms and pipelines.
There is no material news on the gas monetisation project or acquisitions.
BE
The statement has prompted us to increase our Brent oil price for FY2011 and FY2012
to $110 and $100 per barrel respectively (previous corresponding numbers were $100 and $85 per
barrel; our long-run oil price assumption remains $85 per barrel). The price increases move our NAV
from 603p to 623p per share. This implies the stock is trading at a 12% discount to our NAV. The
fundamental production growth story in Dragon remains solid. We have an ‘outperform’ rating on the
stock.
BE
As for POG
Petropavlovsk PLC (POG:LSE): Last: 845.00, up 23 (+2.80%), High: 859.86, Low: 829.00, Volume: 1.57m
BE
Down into results, as they always are.
BE
Because the company has a long history of cutting production
BE
Though it’s now learned to lowball
BE
Hence, today’s results have provided nothing scary.
BE
So: rally.
BE
Here’s Citi.
BE
POG’s attributable gold production for H1 was 219k oz vs. Citi forecast of 226k oz.
At Pokrovskiy we expected Q2 production of 28 k oz vs. announced 24k.oz. We
expected 78.4k oz at Pioneer vs actual 80k oz and at Malomir we expected 20.4k
oz vs actual 17.3k oz. Alluvial operations produced 22.4k oz vs. Citi forecast of 24k
oz.
BE
POG is still guiding to 600k oz for 2011 with production in H2 expected to be higher
due to a greater contribution from seasonal heap-leach and alluvial operations and,
in particular, growth at Pioneer. The advanced stripping already done at Pioneer will
allow access to ore scheduled for processing in H2.
BE
In mid-July, the second crushing and grinding line at Malomir was commissioned
ahead of schedule and is currently being ramped up; and construction work on
Albyn remains on track for launch in Q4 2011. POG had earlier announced it has
completed an internal feasibility study for the construction of the POX hub to
process flotation concentrate from Malomir and Pioneer.
BE
POG notes that operating costs are in line with its estimates, with management
cautioning that costs have been under pressure from industry-wide inflation and the
appreciation of the Rouble against the US$.
BE
In our opinion, POG is slowly recapturing market confidence but doubters will likely
want to wait for further confirmation in Q3, given that 219koz was produced in H1 and it
is still a long way to go before POG can prove it is on track to produce the 381k oz
needed in H2 to achieve the 600k FY 11 target. We rate POG Hold/Medium Risk (2M).
BE
MOST on the tape.
BE
*MORGAN STANLEY 2Q LOSS PER SHR 38C, EST. LOSS 61C
BE
Cripes.
BE
Anyway, going to have to end this now.
BE
Thanks for joining, rabble.
BE
Neil returns tomorrow, so normal service resumes.
BE
Brace yourself for an invigorating dose of the zapper.
BE
So, until then, afternoon all.
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