June, 2011
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- EU, IMF wind-up Greek review – Bloomberg.
- US Treasury to sell remaining stake in Chrysler to Fiat – Reuters.
- Corporate: Cairn Energy, Scotty Group, Halfords,
A $4.2bn question for Sino-Forest Corporation
By Stacy-Marie Ishmael, FT Tilt and John McDermott, FT Alphaville
(For the most recent version of this post, and subsequent updates see FT Tilt)
Muddy Waters Research, a specialist in Chinese companies,
Further further reading
For the commute home, we hope it’s short for your relationship’s sake,
- Why Democrats are (and shouldn’t be) worried about deficits.
- Fannie and Freddie guarantees to cost the taxpayer $42bn.
“Groupon offers”, or, how to write about the Groupon IPO when you don’t really care
1) Asinine joke about how this IPO isn’t the kind of discount you’d find on the Groupon site itself. Shoot yourself.
2) Discuss: bubble or no bubble? Ponder the existential meaning of being in a “not-a-bubble”.
Schwarzman: some of my best friends are old people
The front page splash in Thursday’s Daily Mail has certainly struck a nerve at private equity group Blackstone.
It’s just fired off the following statement:
A news report that appeared this morning on former Blackstone portfolio company Southern Cross was inaccurate and misleading.
For-profit colleges live to default another day
This is what a collective sigh of relief in the for-profit college sector looks like:
The US department of education on Thursday released the final version of its long awaited “gainful employment”
Credit rating cliff risk, redux
And the slow drain of financial crisis support from formerly ‘TBTF’ banks continues apace.
On Thursday, Moody’s announced it would be putting the credit ratings of Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on review for downgrade after taking a closer look at incoming financial reform:
Goldman’s subprime short — subpoenaed
Shares down 3.4 per cent at pixel time…
BN 14:37 *N.Y. STATE PROSECUTOR SAID TO SEND GOLDMAN SUBPOENA LAST WEEK
BN 14:37 *GOLDMAN SPOKESMAN SAYS FIRM `COOPERATES FULLY’ WITH SUBPOENAS
A glimpse at failed central counterparties
And dare we say, a glimpse into the future?
Regulators around the world seem set to install central counterparties (CCPs) as part of their efforts at post-financial crisis reform. But not without criticism — some commentators have likened their efforts to creating a series of AIG-type companies,
Greek ‘reprofiling’ and Orwellian accounting
Gotta love this straight-shooting piece of research from Alliance Bernstein.
The word “re-profiling” comes straight from “Newspeak”, the communication model employed by the Ministry of Truth in Orwell’s 1984.
Doubling a losing bet, Greek tax edition
There are reports at pixel time that Greece has agreed to around €6.4bn in fresh austerity measures in 2011, notably including tax hikes.
Quick question.
Here’s a chart of what Greece was originally supposed to raise via tax hikes in 2011,
The curious case of un-cancelled warrants
FT Alphaville noted a couple of weeks ago how backlogs at London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses in Detroit were seeing some market participants have to wait up to 10 months to receive their aluminium.
Buiter bashes BoE accountability, and other central banks
Citigroup strategist and erstwhile FT blogger, Willem Buiter made headlines last week.
The former Monetary Policy Committee member, it was reported, took to the stand at a special hearing into ‘accountability at the Bank of England’ held by the UK Treasury Select Committee,
Markets Live transcript 2 Jun 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:16 on 2 Jun 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Tony Tassell NHHola rabble NHwelcome to markets live
Greece lightning
If you thought those Greek downgrades were flying thick and fast, you’d be right. According to Evolution’s Brian Barry, Greek ratings are falling about 30 times the average rate:
Planet Hendry
That chart (click to enlarge) and more in Hugh Hendry’s April letter to investors, H/T Tail Chaser. There’s a very interesting assault on Asian commodity giant Olam too, for Glencore watchers…
Further reading
Elsewhere on Thursday,
- The slow motion disaster that is the eurozone.
- Where to go for an IPO?
- For a whistle-blower, no good deed goes unpunished.
- The deal David Rubinstein missed.
- The UK’s ‘Generation Rent’.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis, and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Ignoring the core can keep inflation at bay
For central banks around the world, core inflation is no longer a very useful indicator for monetary policy,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Thursday,
- Kingfisher says group retail profit up 20 per cent in Q1; warns of more challenging Q2 — statement.
- New World Resources says investor willing to sell shares to enhance liquidity ahead of possible FTSE 100 entry — statement.
Further further reading
For the commute home,
- Amy Poehler (yep, that one) explains oil markets.
- Meet the disruption hippies: Bob Dylan vs Mark Zuckerberg.
- The global economy in one gigantic chart.
- Still think the LinkedIn IPO was underpriced?
- Felix on the mysterious Goldman laptop.
What just happenened? Slides, declines, and revisions
by John McDermott and Cardiff Garcia
A risk-off day if ever there was one.
– The S&P had its worst day since August 2010:
– Ten-year Treasury yields plummeted to well beneath 3 per cent:
CNH centre: coming to a City near you?
We knew that China’s efforts to internationalise the RMB were moving along nicely, but thus far CNH deposits (yuan held offshore in Hong Kong) are still a relatively small part of China’s total deposit base.
Comparing Greek apples to Californian oranges
Comparisons between the peripheral European sovereign bonds and US municipal bonds were ten to the nickel until their fortunes diverged in the last couple of months.
Noting that Greece and California “have been occasionally compared in the business media”,
Bill Gross: do not buy expensive bonds
Wednesday’s 38,000 rise in ADP employment is another unreliable yet unnerving data point for the US economy and seemed to be driving 10-year US Treasuries close to 3 per cent at pixel time.
The bear market for bonds might be coming but it’s sure taking its time.
When indicators keep disappointing
Need a silver lining or a “Yeah, but” to the disastrous ADP private employment numbers from this morning?
This, via RQD Economics, is all we could find:
Apart from the turn of the year, ADP employment growth has underestimated private payroll growth in 12 of the last 14 months.
Some big bank trades
It’s all change for banks, for sure. But if you’re seeking some trade ideas to cover ‘global’ banking themes like Basel III and CoCos, then Barclays has got you covered.
For Nama’s eyes only
*The name’s Daly. Frank Daly. And I, representing the Irish National Asset Management Agency, will be attending the Second Annual Global Intelligence Forum, to be held in Dungarvan, Ireland on July 11-13,