June, 2011
Further reading
Elsewhere on Wednesday,
- A trader, an FBI witness and a suicide.
- Are we entering the second Great Depression?
- Viewing financial policy through an Overton window.
- Global food import bills are set to reach record levels in 2011.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Wednesday’s FT,
Martin Wolf: The road to recovery gets steeper
What is one to make of recent economic data, particularly in the advanced countries? Is the world economy slowing? If so,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Wednesday,
- Cairn Energy expects ruling on Arctic protesters — report.
- Muddy Waters research a ‘pile of crap’ — report.
- Scottish Power lifts gas and electricity bills by Scottish Power by 19 per cent and 10 per cent respectively — statement.
Further further reading
For the commute home,
- Growth Forecasts and Informational Rigidities.
- The myth of the jobless recovery.
- What’s Obama all about?
- Tyler Cowen on what the next Fed nominee needs to say to Congress.
Bernanke: “The US Economic Outlook”
Ladies and gentlemen, the hunt for QE3 clues from Big Ben himself begins NOW, with his speech Tuesday to the International Monetary Conference.
Here’s the relevant section, coming at the end:
Monetary Policy
Let me conclude with a few words about the current stance of monetary policy.
Sino-Forest: the case for the defence
In the previous post we tried to identify Muddy Waters’ (MW) main allegations concerning Sino-Forest Corporation’s (TRE) assets in Yunnan province, China.
This post looks at TRE’s response and makes some new information publicly available.
Nomura says not a lot of cash growing on Sino Forest’s trees
Sino-Forest might have come down like one of its (absolutely plenteous) Yunnan broadleaf trees on Muddy Waters LLC…
And there’s a lot to leaf through (both pro and con) in the documents it’s released to investors…
Sino-Forest: the case for the prosecution
At pixel time Sino-Forest Corporation’s (TRE) was trading at C$4.72, below even Friday’s lows, on the back of continued scrutiny and Moody’s’ announcement it was putting TRE’s bonds on review for a downgrade.
NS&I certificates must be capped
This unlikely to go down well with nervous British savers but Citigroup thinks the government should cap the rates on the recently relaunched National Savings index-linked certificates.
It’s expensive,
Apple to give Arm the elbow?
ARM Holdings was underperforming the market on Tuesday afternoon, as rumours of a tie-up between Apple and Intel did the rounds.
The story can be sourced to Citigroup analyst Glen Yueng, who reckons a foundry relationship might be formed between Apple and Intel.
America’s very own, very different, peripheral exposure [updated]
Peripheral Europe — not just a European problem.
Statistics revealed by the Bank for International Settlements earlier this week showed European banks holding 64 per cent of reported foreign claims for troubled eurozone countries like Portugal,
China’s uncollateralised, cash flow-less, local government loans
The first time FT Alphaville stumbled upon China’s local government debt problem, it was in the form of one Shanghai district township snaffling a $250m loan from a Chinese bank for a “high-profile investment.”
Markets Live transcript 7 Jun 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:23 on 7 Jun 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT bryce.elder NHHola rabble NHwelcome to ML NH60 minutes of markets fun and games
PPR’s grosse acquisition
There’s ripple of excitement in the luxury goods sector on Tuesday morning, following reports that Gucci and Puma-owner PPR is on the prowl.
Having seen arch rival LVMH swoop for Bulgari, PPR is in talks to make une grosse acquisition in the luxury goods sector,
Bafin bashes the EBA over stress tests
Woah, woah, woah. What’s got under Bafin’s bonnet?
Bafin president Jochen Sanio had some harsh words for the European Banking Authority (EBA), curators of the European bank stress tests, in the regulator’s annual report published on Monday.
HMV staggers on
What next for HMV, the heavily-indebted and structurally-challenged books and DVD retailer?
The answer would be appear to be a massive equity fund raising, if the terms of its new £220m lending facility are anything to go by.
Taking the eurozone’s housing temperature
Some graphics from Danske Bank to ponder ahead of the ECB’s Thursday meeting:
Related link:
S&P sees eurozone, UK housing headwinds on swelling rates - FT Alphaville
Further reading
Elsewhere on Tuesday,
- Party like it’s 1999, Groupon edition.
- “Oh no! They’re talking their books!” Puh-lease.
- Waking up in debtors’ prison.
- And the stark choice for Europe.
- Carlyle Group is ready for its close-up.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis, and other offerings from Tuesday’s FT,
Kenneth Rogoff: The global fallout of a eurozone collapse
As many commentators have rightly observed, the euro experiment is at a crossroads,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
- Resolution to return £500m to shareholders; £250m share buyback starts Wednesday — statement and statement.
- PPR in talks to make large acquisition in luxury sector — report.
Further further reading
For the commute home,
- Handy interactive graphic with macroeconomic numbers across the Americas.
- The case against globaloney.
- How Walmart is like the Black Byed Peas.
- Inflation in the Middle East,
[Demographics and destiny] US immigration edition
Here’s a chart that caught our eye from the CBO’s latest report on US immigration trends, updated with data through the end of 2009:
As the report explains, legal permanent resident status (commonly known as getting a “green card”) is a step towards citizenship and allows immigrants to live and work in the US indefinitely,
Manufacturing arbitrage with ETFs
To the average investor, exchange traded (funds/products/commodities/notes), or ETFs for short, are simply shares which track indices. Copper, the FTSE 100, the retail sector, whatever.
Their defenders insist they have revolutionised the industry,
Dick Bove says folks at the Federal Reserve have ‘lost their minds’
Really.
And it’s all because of one little speach by Daniel Tarullo. The Federal Reserve Board governor took to the Peterson Institute stage on Friday to recommend that systemically-important financial institutions (SIFIs) increase their capital ratios by 20 per cent to 100 per cent over their current levels.
The karmic feel-good story of the weekend
Bank of America improperly forecloses on homeowners. Homeowners foreclose back:
‘A company for carrying on an undertaking of great advantage’
… but nobody to know what it is.
Presenting Jellybook, London’s newest cash shell.
But unlike the infamous South Sea companies we sort of know what this one is going to do (the clue is the name).
Found: $775bn of missing muni bonds
The things one finds underneath the sofa.
FT Alphaville typically estimates the size of the muni market at $2,900bn, based on year-end 2010 data from the Federal Reserve. The FT uses the same figure,
Plan B
The IMF version for the UK, anyway:
Conversely, if the economy experiences a prolonged period of weak growth and high unemployment—and if inflationary pressures consequently ease—fiscal automatic stabilizers should operate freely (as the fiscal mandate is designed to allow) and the current monetary policy rate should be maintained for an extended period.