Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:19 on 1 Jun 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Tony Tassell
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and welcome to Markets Live
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today with an Australian feel
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with Bryce away on half term duties
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though a little strange to be surrounded by Bryce’s things – The latest issue of Vogue, what looks like a educational tome on “Finding your chakra”, a Superdry loyalty card, a mirror ball and the very thin Scottish edition of Tips for finding happiness.
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ok i am making that up
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I have an email for Bryce
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he won’t want to miss this
Supergroup PLC (SGP:LSE): Last: 1,115, up 3 (+0.27%), High: 1,148, Low: 1,103, Volume: 86.67k
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but he does have a dummies guide to myspace
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SUPERGROUP PLC
Analyst and Investor Day
Date: Monday, 20 June 2011
At SuperGroup PLC, Unit 60, The Runnings, Cheltenham, GL51 9NW
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Julian Dunkerton, Chief Executive, and Chas Howes, Finance Director, will be hosting a presentation for sellside analysts and investors which will take place at 12 noon on Monday, 20 June 2011 at SuperGroup’s Head Office in Cheltenham at Unit 60, The Runnings, Cheltenham, GL51 9NW.
They will be joined by several members of the Group’s operations team including James Holder, Brand and Design Director, and Theo Karpathios, Chief Executive Officer (Wholesale and International). The schedule for the day will include an overview of the business with updates on current design, alongside UK and international growth opportunities.
A more detailed itinerary for the day will follow in due course, including travel arrangements to and from Cheltenham.
If you could RSVP by return to my assistant, Sarah Vines, on 020 7457 2057 or alternatively email her on sarah.vines@collegehill.com to advise us whether or not you will be attending in the first instance, that would be much appreciated. Please note we will only be able to accommodate one sellside representative per team.
We very much hope you will be able to join us.
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I’m sure Bryce will be able to make
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the timing of this analyst day
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its three weeks before the results season
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when they are well into
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just on myspace.someone tweeted yesterday that you know it is really over, when someone syas can we just be friends – on myspace..not facebook
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that is strange timing for an analyst day
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can we send bryce along..i am sure he fit in
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and get to the wider market
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lots of depressing data around today..at least on the uk front
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but the market isn’t doing much
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down just 3 points at 5,985
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in fact looking back at yesterday’s session
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related to the MSCI reweight
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no nokia-like blowups around the place
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(captain mannering..a fine idea..maybe a superdry kilt)
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
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some developments in De La Rue
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AZ Electronic Materials SA (AZEM:LSE): Last: 305.50, down 32.6 (-9.64%), High: 308.90, Low: 300.20, Volume: 1.86m
AZ Electronic Materials SA (AZEM:LSE): Last: 305.50, down 32.6 (-9.64%), High: 308.90, Low: 300.20, Volume: 1.86m
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but it’s in the FTSE 250
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was up 8% yesterday as it was added to the MSCI UK Index
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private equity backers
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sell 21% of the company
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and they wonder why they have a bad reputation in the equity market
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mmm…i remember the company..we have say they make the materials that go into flat panels to make them sound more interesting
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to Tuesday’s artificial and inflated price
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so the interests of the pe backers not exactly aligned with long term public investors
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artifcial and inflated price?
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and then a big placing
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just leaves a badish taste in the mouth
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yes…eyebrow raising that one
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good return for carlyle though
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The Carlyle Group acquired AZ Electronic Materials in 2004 for €338m from Clariant, the former speciality chemicals unit of Sandoz, now part of Novartis
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current market cap 1.3bn
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that’s not been a massive disaster
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I have a small bit of comment on this
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AZEM (BUY, PT 380p): PE holders selling 80m shares
UBS is undertaking an accelerated bookbuild for 80m shares (21% of equity).
The price of 302p is a 10.7% discount to yesterday’s close. However, yesterday saw the stock up by 8% in high volume.
The free float will increase by 43%, substantially improving liquidity.
The stock is coming equally from the two PE shareholders, Carlyle and Vestar.
Following this sell-down, they will retain a total of 22%, which enables them to retain board representation at AZEM (minimum 10% each).
Our investment case for AZEM is based on an almost unique business model within the chemical industry, which combines:
” Structural growth outlook
” Very high and stable margins
” Capex-light business
This is all underpinned by exceptionally strong market positioning, where ca. 75% of revenue comes from products with #1 or #2 global shares.
Our TP of 380p equates to EV/EBITDA (’12) of 9.0x and EV/Sales of 3.0x, which would put the stock in line with our sector valuation matrices.
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will mean another MSCI
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so the institutional public investors could a boost
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so who is milkygateway?
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our new annoying retail reader
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he’s long and wrong in Lloyds
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I should have banned him weeks ago
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but he provides a certain amusement factor
Warning to rude and abusive commenters – your ability to comment will be terminated immediately and permanently, without warning. Henceforth, FTAlphaville has instituted a One Strike and You Are Out policy. We’ve had enough. We are going to clean up these pixels once and for all.
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every day Lloyds seems to go down
Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY:LSE): Last: 51.23, down 0.77 (-1.48%), High: 52.28, Low: 51.21, Volume: 28.42m
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if he reads the main site
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it’s down to a MOST note
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on the housing market, tehre was the morgan stanley and some poor mortgage data
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reckon prices will fall 10% by the end of 2012
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of negative equity mortgages on its books
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investors think Lloyds could hit 40p
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here’s some of the note
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Lower house prices and effect on UK banks: We still
think that the UK housing market will see another leg of
correction. Our central case is that UK house prices will
be 10% below 4Q10 levels by the end of 2012. Among
UK Banks, Lloyds is most exposed and we now expect
21% lower profit before tax than consensus in 2012e.
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Why we expect house prices to fall: We take another
in-depth look at UK housing and expect a somewhat
larger fall in prices than previously, but over a longer
period (a 10% decline by 4Q 2012 from 4Q 2010 levels,
compared to -7% 4Q/4Q 2011 previously). Valuations
look somewhat stretched on our metrics; we expect
mortgage rates to rise over the next year and a half; and
the outlook for household real income growth has
weakened. Our house price model looks consistent with
a ~10% fall; although it predicts a more volatile path.
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We see Lloyds as the most exposed listed bank to
falling UK house prices: We expect the impact on UK
banks to be i) higher loan losses as collateral values fall;
ii) potentially higher risk weighted assets (and capital
demands) due to model changes; iii) subdued mortgage
loan growth. Lloyds’ loan book is 58% mortgages and
we forecast 27% (£90bn) of these mortgages to be in
negative equity by Dec 2012. This is a key driver of our
£0.5bn above consensus 2012 loan loss assumptions.
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More downbeat than consensus: Our views on the
outlook for the UK economy and UK house prices are
more downbeat than consensus. We expect only 1.2%
GDP growth this year (consensus 1.6%) and consensus
expectations are for a rise in house prices in 2012.
Forecasts: contingent on seeing rate rises: We
expect the BoE to raise rates 150bp by end-2012. The
main risk to our view is that the MPC delays action until
late this year/early next year. That might make falling
house prices more a story for 2012/13 than 2011/12.
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i suppose the only solace for Lloyds CEO Antonio Horta-Osorio is that the spanish housing market is probably worse if he had stayed with Santander
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on the mortgage data, we have some commentary of course from howard archer of global insight
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The Bank of England reported that mortgage approvals for house purchases fell back to a four-month low of 45,166 in April after improving modestly to a five-month high of 47,145 in March from a 21-month low of 42,859 in December.
Mortgage approvals may have been held back to a limited extent in April by the extra bank holiday for the Royal Wedding and by the later Easter. Even allowing for any impact from those factors though, mortgage approvals are clearly very low compared to long-term norms. Mortgage approvals have actually averaged around 90,000 a month since 1993, while a level of 70,000-80,000 has in the past been considered consistent with stable house prices
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The relapse in mortgage approvals in April from an already low level reinforces our belief that modest falls in house prices are more probable than not over the coming months as squeezed purchasing power, tightening fiscal policy and the prospect of gradually rising interest rates before the end of 2011 weigh down on potential buyers. On top of that high unemployment, negative real income growth, elevated debt levels and still significant difficulties in getting a mortgage (particularly for first time buyers) do not bode well for house prices. Also significantly, consumer confidence is still very low compared to long-term norms despite spiking up in May, which is likely to make many people reluctant to risk buying a house.
TT
Some support to house prices could come if the number of properties coming on to the market is limited over the coming months. The modest help provided to first-time buyers in the March Budget is too small to provide major support to the housing market. Meanwhile, affordability measures are mixed. On the favourable side, mortgage payments as a percentage of disposable income are currently very low compared to past norms. However, the house price/earnings ratio is above its long-term average.
On balance, we believe that house prices are likely to end up declining by some 10% overall by mid-2012 from their 2010 highs. This implies that they will fall by around 5-8% from current levels depending on which house price measure you take.
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(Soundbuy the weightings are done on free float bandings)
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have we had any other reaction than in lloyds
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there is this weird Goldman story however
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i enjoyed that very much…
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how a discarded laptop contained the details of a goldman employee defence against the sec
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and how a film maker and artist handed the laptop to the nytimes
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basically the article asks why fabrice toure has been the only charged at goldman over the handling of mortgage securities
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a fair question to me…he was pretty junior
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In their Oct. 10 response to the S.E.C., Mr. Tourre’s lawyers, including Pamela Chepiga of Allen & Overy, made an argument that they have not emphasized publicly. They contended that “singling Mr. Tourre out for criticism regarding the content of this clearly collaborative effort is unreasonable.” These legal replies, which are not public, were provided to The New York Times by Nancy Cohen, an artist and filmmaker in New York also known as Nancy Koan, who says she found the materials in a laptop she had been given by a friend in 2006.
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had a friend ever give you a laptop
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the full piece is here
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i can believe a friend gave a laptop to someone..they have a limited life sometimes
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(Soundbuy – go to FTSE)
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but there are questions about how much investigation of the laptop the NYtimes did
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but it was found in the trash
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These legal replies, which are not public, were provided to The New York Times by Nancy Cohen, an artist and filmmaker in New York also known as Nancy Koan, who says she found the materials in a laptop she had been given by a friend in 2006.
The friend told her he had happened upon the laptop discarded in a garbage area in a downtown apartment building. E-mail messages for Mr. Tourre continued streaming into the device, but Ms. Cohen said she had ignored them until she heard Mr. Tourre’s name in news reports about the S.E.C. case. She then provided the material to The Times. Mr. Tourre’s lawyer did not respond to an inquiry for comment.
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that’s from Felix Salmon
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was the NYT, then, hacking into Tourre’s private emails in much the same way as the News of the World was hacking into private voicemails?
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interesting question from Salmon
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given the News of the Screws stuff
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we should get back to the markets
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i am sure we will be hearing more about this story
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hacking might be an unfair description if they were just handed the emails or they just opened when the laptop was opened up
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any reaction in the telecom stocks to the story that mobiles cause cancer according to the who
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there is, but before we get to that some Greek breaking news
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RTRS-GERMAN FINMIN SPOKESMAN SAYS EXPECTS GREEK AID PROGRAMME TO BE JOINTLY CONTINUED BY ALL SIDES
11:17 01Jun11 RTRS-GERMAN FIN MIN SPOKESMAN SAYS MUST BE CRYSTAL CLEAR HOW FURTHER DELAYS IN GREEK PRIVATISATION PROGRAMME WILL BE AVOIDED
11:19 01Jun11 RTRS-GERMAN FINMIN SPOKESMAN SAYS FURTHER AID FOR GREECE CAN ONLY BE POSSIBLE WHEN GREECE MAKES GREATER EFFORTS ON ITS OWN AND PRIVATE CREDITORS INVOLVED
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blather blather blather
Vodafone Group Plc (VOD:LSE): Last: 164.10, down 4.85 (-2.87%), High: 164.57, Low: 163.15, Volume: 39.47m
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it is trading ex-dividend
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but it’s also a death merchant
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it sells killer phones
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Vodafone (Lukewarm Buy TP £1.80). Might be a little weaker on news (todays F.T.) that the World Health Organisation has classified mobile phone usage as “possibly carcinogenic to humans” for the first time.
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if mobiles do cause cancer, i am going short Neil Hume…never seen someone more attached to their mobile
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it might explain a lot
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might as well smoke 40 a day
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the above was from Mark James at Liberum
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who makes the following point
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What the F.T. doesn’t say, however, is that it’s been parked in the same risk category as coffee and pickled vegetables.
The main risk from mobile phone useage remains that from using them when driving – and I await your pickled vegetable jokes.
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you have to take cucumbers seriously though
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the pickled variet might be OK
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so we have to stick to the gerkhins then
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where shall we go to next – the miners?
Glencore International PLC (GLEN:LSE): Last: 524.20, down 6.9 (-1.30%), High: 529.10, Low: 524.20, Volume: 5.77m
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has anything to do with it
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EIB to decline all new financing for Glencore
* Cites “serious concerns” over governance
* Had provided $50 mln loan for majority-owned Mopani
* EIB carrying out independent probe into tax claims
* Glencore denies wrongdoing, welcomes probe
By Clara Ferreira-Marques and Philip Blenkinsop
LONDON/BRUSSELS, June 1 (Reuters) – The European Investment Bank has frozen all new loans to commodities trader Glencore (GLEN.L) and its subsidiaries, it said in a statement on Wednesday, citing “serious concerns” over the group’s corporate governance.
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The EIB, the European Union’s lending institution, provided in 2005 a $50 million loan to Mopani Copper Mines, a Zambian subsidiary of Swiss-based Glencore, to help pay for the modernisation of a copper smelter.
But Mopani has since been accused by some non-governmental organisations — most recently by campaign groups in an open letter signed by a group of European parliamentarians — of tax evasion and of causing widespread pollution.
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there’s more on this story here
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On 25 February 2005, the European Investment Bank (EIB) signed a Finance Contract with Mopani Copper Mines Plc (MCM) – ultimately majority owned(1) by the Swiss group ‘Glencore’ – for an amount of USD 50 million under the ACP-Investment Facility (using EDF) to partially fund the first phase of the renovation and modernisation of the Mufulira copper smelter to reduce the emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2). Total project costs were USD 130 million and the remaining USD 80 million were financed from own funds of the borrower. The EIB loan was fully disbursed in April/August 2005. The project was successfully completed by mid 2007, and is effectively eliminating half of the SO2 emissions of the smelter. A further and final reduction of SO2 and dust emissions is planned for latest 2015, when MCM will have completed the construction of the second acid plant without co-financing by the Bank. This will render the smelter compliant with local and World Bank emission regulations. MCM’s debt service to the Bank has always been excellent and the loan is expected to be fully reimbursed by end 2016.
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the EIB of course has had it own corporate governance problems a long while back
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i cannot imagine mr glasenberg being very happy with the after market performance of the shares..i imagine the banks handling the deal are getting a grilling
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are there will be more of this stuff
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did you see Guthers piece in the Lombard column last week on column
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very interesting on the selection of Simon Murray to be the chairman
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he’d never met anyone at the company
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Commodity jitters and price resistance are to blame. So are concerns over corporate governance, particularly the appointment of chairman Simon Murray.
Mr Murray, an old Asia hand, has stirred controversy by implying that he is not keen on women in the boardroom. But some institutions are not that keen on the means by which Mr Murray arrived in Glencore’s. Mr Murray is generally believed to have been hired by Ivan Glasenberg, Glencore’s chief executive and a big shareholder, without input from other directors. They only met Mr Murray on the day of his appointment, according to the yarn.
That merits an arching of eyebrows in politer City parlours. At a big quoted company, a nominations committee is responsible for meeting and shortlisting potential chairmen. The chief executive butts out of the process for the obvious reason that the chairman, in extremis, has the job of ejecting him or her from the board. Some important stockpicking investors say privately that they would have preferred Mr Murray to have been appointed thusly. Their concerns contributed to their decision not to buy into the Glencore float, alongside other worries. These included the perception that shares in Glencore were overpriced and that commodity prices are set for a serious tumble.
In fairness to Glencore, the business was still private in April when Mr Murray was appointed. It had no obligation to ape quoted company governance. Moreover, Mr Glasenberg is understood to have discussed a shortlist of candidates with his coalescing board. They all voted for Mr Murray. They met him for the first time as a body on the day of his appointment. But several were already acquaintances.
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mmm..just on miners there was an interesting note on Vedanta today
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from richard rose at oriel
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Vedanta deal latest
• Press reports suggest that Ministerial sub-committee that met on Friday has
recommended that the Vedanta deal gets Government approval but with conditions
that the cess and royalty issues with ONGC are resolved.
• This, in our view if confirmed, could be a significant hurdle given the material impact
on valuation. Vedanta could renegotiate the deal but it would be surprising if Cairn
Energy accepted a major change in consideration and it would be difficult to see the
Cairn India board agreeing effectively a change to the PSC which would disadvantage
minority shareholders.
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• If the deal were not to complete, whilst it might hurt sentiment short-term, it wouldn’t
necessarily destroy the investment case in Cairn. Given strong production growth in
Rajasthan and rising oil prices, our current NAV stands at 370p/sh (excluding
exploration) and would rise to 440p/sh fully derisking contingent resources and EOR
upside.
• Separately, we reported yesterday that operations had been halted on the Leiv
Eriksson rig in Greenland by Greenpeace. This is not the case and operations
continue despite the protests.
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being pushed by Citi today
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO:LSE): Last: 4,306, up 60.5 (+1.43%), High: 4,318, Low: 42.45, Volume: 1.73m
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they say it’s never been cheaper
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which is something of a claim
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Our favoured play — We add Rio Tinto to our most favoured UK metals and mining companies. In our recent report “Rio Tinto – Time to Take A Fresh Look”, 26 May 2011, we highlighted the de-rating that had taken place on Rio Tinto’s PE multiple. Interestingly the de-rating has been greater on an EV/EBITDA basis.
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• Back to crisis levels — Rio is now trading on around 4.2x EV/EBITDA, which is at the same level the stock traded at during the height of the financial crisis in 2008.
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Debt levels – However, in contrast to 2008 when the company had held close to $30bn of net debt, we are forecasting Rio to be in a net cash position of around $4bn by the end of 2011.
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Globally the cheapest large cap miner – On spot, base and consensus earnings multiples, Rio Tinto looks the cheapest large cap miner.
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Aluminium a catalyst?…unlikely short term – While we maintain our relatively positive view on aluminium, the strong AUD and CAD exchange rates are likely to take their toll on Rio’s aluminium division, and therefore nearer-term earnings are likely to be driven by iron ore.
• Sector preference – Our most favoured stocks in the UK metals and mining space are Rio Tinto, Xstrata, Randgold, ThyssenKrupp and First Quantum.
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(Cole no because its ex-div)
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the ROTR are chatting about tate and lyle..what is up?
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not the takeover rumours again
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there’s a roadshow at the moment
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which is going down well
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and the shorts of being sqeezed
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mm..well there are lot of cashed up food companies around on the hunt
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Conagra is still pursuing Ralcorp
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the message seems to be from the roadshow
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ramp up a second Sucralose plant
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which is its zero calorie sweetenner
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also dangerous to your health
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or so some tabloid said once
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is the the daily mail edition of ML..everything causes cancer?
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here’s the Deutsche note
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at Tate does seem to have hit the ground running
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he’s not the new anymore
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Tate shares have risen by 46% in the last 12 months (vs FTSE up 15%).
However with the valuation still low on most valuation metrics and the ongoing
conversion of the group from a commodity-focused company to a more food
ingredientsfocused company still in its early stages, we would still encourage anyone
considering an investment in the food ingredients industry, to look at Tate despite the
strong run in the shares. In our view, Tate is very much still a sweet acorn.
NH
Doubling up on Sucralose Sucralose has caused much debate on the Tate investment
case over the years. For us, Sucralose is just another highly successful and value added
product of the fast-growing food ingredients industry, where dominant market
shares are the norm in specific areas (first mover advantage) supporting high margins.
Anything which therefore helps propel the growth of Sucralose is therefore good. The
news therefore that Tate will gradually ramp up a second plant on Sucralose based on
its demand analysis of existing Sucralose users as well as the pipeline of new users
who are trialing the product is in our view great news. Long term, this could double
Sucralose EBIT which already accounts for c.23% of group EBIT. Assuming no other
actions taken by the group, this decision alone could drive mid-single-digit profit
growth at Tate for years to come, at clear odds to the way Tate is valued.
NH
Valuation and Risk: Maintain Buy. Raising TP to 785p from 725p We value Tate using a
DCF, as with the majority of consumer staples stocks, but also sense-check using
traditional multiple valuation. Our DCF assumes mid and long-term EBITA growth of
4% and 1.5% pa. Our WACC of 9.1% uses a risk-free rate of 5.0%, equity risk
premium of 4.3% and industry beta 1. Tate still has a number of commodity
businesses that are exposed to global commodity price movements, regulated
markets and industry capacity dynamics. These can have material near-term effects on
profits (up and down) and make the shares volatile.
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never tried an acorn but they don’t look at all sweet to me
NH
and just on these bid rumours
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given the recent flurry of deal
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in the food ingredient sector
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(natley…and pigs fed on acorns are very fine…our Spanish commodities editor Javier Blas can wax lyrical about them for hours)
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((tk…l’Animia..one of my favourite restaurants)
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hang on..neil seems to be preoccupied by some strange breaking news
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not heard of the publication before
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the gold bugs will like it
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Russia Says IMF Chief Jailed For Discovering All US Gold Is Gone
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A new report prepared for Prime Minister Putin by the Federal Security Service (FSB) says that former International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn was charged and jailed in the US for sex crimes on May 14th after his discovery that all of the gold held in the United States Bullion Depository located at Fort Knox was ‘missing and/or unaccounted’ for.
According to this FSB secret report, Strauss-Kahn had become “increasingly concerned” earlier this month after the United States began “stalling” its pledged delivery to the IMF of 191.3 tons of gold agreed to under the Second Amendment of the Articles of Agreement signed by the Executive Board in April 1978 that were to be sold to fund what are called Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) as an alternative to what are called reserve currencies.
NH
he’s nicked all the gold from Fort Knox
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(re the Spanish jamon, Javier is standing next to me now..assuring me that pata negra is the best)
NH
(is it more expensive than gold?)
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(he personally keeps Brindisa in business buying Joselito Cinco Jotas jamon pata negra)
NH
nteresting to note about all of these events is that one of the United States top Congressman, and 2012 Presidential candidate, Ron Paul [photo bottom left] has long stated his belief that the US government has lied about its gold reserves held at Fort Knox. So concerned had Congressman Paul become about the US government and the Federal Reserve hiding the truth about American gold reserves he put forward a bill in late 2010 to force an audit of them, but which was subsequently defeated by Obama regime forces.
When directly asked by reporters if he believed there was no gold in Fort Knox or the Federal Reserve, Congressman Paul gave the incredible reply, “I think it is a possibility.”
Also interesting to note is that barely 3 days after the arrest of Strauss-Kahn, Congressman Paul made a new call for the US to sell its gold reserves by stating, “Given the high price it is now, and the tremendous debt problem we now have, by all means, sell at the peak.”
TT
fantastic story about DSK.
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on DSK, robert shirmsley’s column o the weekend was very very funny
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Men of Britain rejoice; throw off your shackles and insecurities and give thanks for Dominique Strauss-Kahn. With one pounce we are free. For decades we’ve lived with the traditional British inadequacies around women. We’ve suffered in the shadows of sophisticated Frenchmen who could woo a woman into bed just by reading her the ingredients of a Cointreau bottle. But no more. Gentlemen of England now a-bed, no longer hold your manhood cheap.
For DSK has revealed the truth – and like the Wizard of Oz, it turns out that behind the screen there was nothing all that impressive going on. Leave aside for a moment the question of whether he’s guilty of being an attempted rapist and focus simply on his now well-established normal behaviour. For remember, that in France DSK is known as a séducteur; in fact, he was known as a grand séducteur. That’s like a Jedi Knight of babe magnets. And what were le grand séducteur’s last words as a free man? Moments before he was pulled off his plane, he had purportedly looked at a shapely stewardess and remarked “nice arse”.
NH
might be worth watching the online gamers
NH
June 1 (Bloomberg) — Germany’s Federal AdministrativeCourt, based in Leipzig, upheld a ban on the offer of onlinesports gambling, saying the decision doesn’t violate German orEuropean Union law, it said in an e-mailed statement today.
Betfair Group PLC (BET:LSE): Last: 831.00, down 8 (-0.95%), High: 845.00, Low: 819.50, Volume: 106.38k
Bwin.party Digital Entertainment Plc (BPTY:LSE): Last: 145.10, down 0.5 (-0.34%), High: 145.80, Low: 144.34, Volume: 215.38k
TT
about we move to more a interesting Shore
TT
FSA Censures BDO for Failings in Shore Capital’s Puma Takeover
BC-FSA-CENSURES-BDO<
FSA Censures BDO for Failings in Shore Capital’s Puma Takeover
c.2011 Bloomberg News
By Benjamin Purvis
June 1 (Bloomberg) — The U.K.’s Financial Services Authority censured BDO LLP for failings while acting as a sponsor during Shore Capital Group Plc’s takeover of Puma Brandenburg Ltd., according to a website statement today.
NH
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) has today censured BDO LLP (BDO) for failings while acting as a sponsor during Shore Capital Group PLC’s (Shore Capital) takeover of Puma Brandenburg Limited (Puma). This is the first public censure of a sponsor, by the FSA, in relation to the Listing Rules.
In May 2009 BDO was approached by Shore Capital to provide advice as a sponsor on its proposed merger with Puma. BDO was made aware that the transaction might constitute a reverse takeover due to the significant size of the target company. Shore Capital’s shares were listed on the Official List and traded on the London Stock Exchange.
NH
The Listing Rules state that a suspension of the listed company’s shares will often be appropriate upon the announcement of a reverse takeover, unless the UK Listing Authority (UKLA) is satisfied that there is sufficient information already in the market about the proposed transaction. These requirements are in place to ensure the smooth operation of the market and in the interests of investor protection and market confidence.
NH
Despite these requirements, BDO failed to liaise with the UKLA in advance of the announcement of the transaction to ascertain whether Shore Capital’s shares should be suspended. Instead BDO:
Agreed with Shore Capital from the outset that it would delay contacting the UKLA until after the announcement; and
Attempted to avoid classifying the transaction as a reverse, despite recognising at the time that this strategy was highly unlikely to succeed.
The FSA has concluded that BDO’s conduct did not satisfy the requirements for a sponsor under the Listing Rules.
NH
that doesn’t look very good
NH
(IMP – institutions in the City not sell side research)
TT
yes…i am not sure why shares should be suspended in such cases
NH
and shares get suspended
TT
mmm….time to look at De La Rue..the smell of burnt fingers is in the air
TT
the shares are off quite a bit
De La Rue Plc (DLAR:LSE): Last: 793.50, down 28.5 (-3.47%), High: 827.50, Low: 777.53, Volume: 983.49k
TT
from this very odd appointment by erstwhile french suitor Oberthur and its clear statement that it is not interested in making a bid
NH
but why make a statement
NH
why announced you have hired the former De La Rue CEO
NH
even though you can’t bid
NH
because there’s a six month ban
TT
Francois-Charles Oberthur Fiduciaire SA said it hired the former chief executive officer of De La Rue Plc (DLAR) as an adviser and it doesn’t plan to make another bid for the banknote printer after a previous overture failed.
James Hussey’s “detailed understanding of the market and long-standing relationships across the industry will be invaluable to Oberthur,” Chairman Jean Pierre Savare said in a statement. “We want to clarify, without any reservation, that we have no intention of making an offer for De La Rue.”
Oberthur abandoned a 10-week chase of the 200-year-old Basingstoke, England-based company after De La Rue refused to enter talks over a sweetened 926 million-pound ($1.5 billion) offer in January. Hussey resigned in August after production issues at a factory caused operations to be suspended. His resignation stemmed from “his belief that he must take responsibility for this,” the company said at the time.
De La Rue fell as much as 5.1 percent to 780.5 pence in London, the biggest intraday drop since Jan. 24. The stock traded 3.3 percent lower at 795 pence as of 10:03 a.m., giving the company a market value of 789 million pounds.
TT
that was from bloomberg btw
TT
James Hussey must be popular at De La Rue
NH
he was at the helm during the banknote scandal
NH
Pierre really really wants to buy this business
NH
but he’s playing the long game
NH
hire the ex De La Rue CEO
NH
caps the share price by putting out this statement
NH
and at the same time signals to private equity
NH
that he’s not a forced seller of his cards business
NH
which he needs to flog to make an offer
NH
this could all take a year
NH
but Pierre will play the liong game
TT
i imagine the french will be very patient
TT
here is an odd bbc interview with Mr Hussey .he has quite a presence apparently
TT
At 6’8″ James is an imposing figure. It took him years to realise that some of his staff were intimidated by him. He now makes a big effort when interacting with colleagues to put them at ease. He advises everyone, whatever their position, to be self-aware and make an effort get on with their colleagues.
TT
http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/47505000/jpg/_47505121_jameshussey2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8577340.stm&usg=__eZyTjwteaaQ7RAIEZ4riNG4D9KI=&h=288&w=512&sz=25&hl=en&start=1&zoom=1&tbnid=MDiXsfjaTYMT0M:&tbnh=74&tbnw=131&ei=GxvmTd3vJY6xhAf0v_HECg&prev=/search%3Fq%3Djames%2Bhussey%2Bde%2Bla%2Brue%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26sa%3DN%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-GB:official%26tbm%3Disch&um=1&itbs=1
NH
I have some comment on this
NH
which is at odds with Monty’s view
NH
Oberthur this morning published a statement saying they have hired ex De La Rue Chief Executive James Hussey and also that it has “no intention of making an offer for De La Rue plc”. This is interesting given that Oberthur were already prevented from making an offer until 25th July anyway – in our minds such a statement is unnecessary at the moment and in reality an attempt to keep the DLAR price down heading into this announcement. We are awaiting clarification from the Takeover Panel as to how this deadline might now be extended by such a statement (likely 6 months) but either way it remains unlikely that an offer would be announced any time soon.
NH
Today’s announcement achieves two things – firstly it puts a lid on the DLAR shareprice, keeping it from running away – Oberthur are the only realistic bidder, so the shares shouldn’t start to bake in inflated M&A speculation into July now. Secondly, bearing in mind Oberthur have been widely reported to be selling a stake in their Card Services business (potentially to finance a DLAR bid) it shows the potential P/Equity buyers of that asset that they aren’t forced sellers on a tight time-line, both sensible messages for Oberthur to convey at present.
So our conclusions are that this intrduces some formal delay to Oberthur’s ability to come back for DLAR, but ultimately they still very much want to own this asset and we will see another approch eventually. Any M&A probability in DLAR’s price shouldn’t decline too far.
NH
they don’t believe Pierre has moved on
TT
so bascially in line with what you said
NH
and given he’s been trying to buy this business
NH
why would he give up now
TT
any more bid rumour while we are at…i have a low threshold for these things
Unilever PLC (ULVR:LSE): Last: 1,990, up 19 (+0.96%), High: 2,000, Low: 1,978, Volume: 2.17m
NH
before the end of the year
NH
apparently the Americans
NH
are trying to find buyers
NH
they will have to sell
NH
which would presumably
TT
if that was the case, surely there would be more noise about it
NH
given the regulatory hurdles
TT
not an easy thing to sell on the sly
TT
who knows…cost cutting etc
TT
does not seem a compelling rumour
TT
by the way what is bart becht up to lately?
NH
Time for a bit of small cap
NH
we have news from the Falklands
Rockhopper Exploration PLC (RKH:LSE): Last: 260.00, up 29 (+12.55%), High: 295.00, Low: 247.00, Volume: 8.94m
NH
they have found more oil
NH
Rockhopper Exploration, the North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration company, is pleased to provide the following update on the 14/10-5 appraisal well:
· Significant reservoir package and hydrocarbon column encountered
· Wireline log analysis indicates 93.5m (306 feet) net pay in good quality reservoir
· Average porosity greater than 20%
· Average permeability of 100-200 millidarcies (mD) and up to 1,000mD
· 79m net pay in main fan complex
· 14.5m net pay in lower fan complex
· No oil water contact observed
· Rockhopper now intends to test the well
TT
does any of this make sense to you
TT
(fanta..have some in a sec)
NH
(agreed Monty – they need to sell that card services business or a stake in it at a good price to ever return with another offer for DLAR)
NH
it all makes sense to the sector
NH
A very encouraging operational update from RKH with the latest appraisal well on the Sea Lion discovery coming in on prognosis. Located only 600 metres north of the original discovery the well was low-risk, but nevertheless this is still a great result. Total net oil pay is 93m, with 79m of this in the main fan.
NH
This compares to net pay of 53m in the original discovery well. The 14m of pay in the lower fan is better than expected – it was not prognosed to be well developed at this location. Whilst early stage this has clear potential implications for future reserves upgrades. The well has been cored and the oil quality is good – porosity >20% and permeability of 100-200mD. The well will now be fully tested (both upper/lower zones), which should take another month. Whilst this doesn’t affect our NAV of 593p/share, it is extremely encouraging.
NH
Following testing the next appraisal well will be drilled 4.2km to the west, ie a greater stepout and targeting the P50 reserves, both the upper and lower fans. Thereafter two more appraisal wells will be drilled back-to-back. Ultimately by the end of the summer we could therefore be in a position to prove up the base case of 170m barrels recoverable (on which our 593p/share NAV is based), with an upside case of around 242m barrels – this would translate into a NAV of more than 800p/share. Today’s news is as good a preliminary result as the group could have hoped for. The RKH share price of 231p/share is still toiling just above a 12-month low, and represents an excellent buying opportunity.
NH
is also really really bullish
NH
Rockhopper has announced that its SeaLion appraisal located close to the
original discovery has encountered 93m of net hydrocarbon pay (79m in the main
fan and 14m in the lower fan). No water contact was observed. This is
significantly better than the original discovery of 53m. Importantly, reservoir
quality also appears good with over 20% average porosity. We believe that this
result is key to firm up the P90 resources of the field of 100mmboe and to
dissipate market concerns around the commerciality of the field.
*Flow test remains key
As expected, now the company will move to flow test the well with improved
equipment. Given the improved reservoir package, we believe that the flow
should be significantly better than the 2-4kboe/d observed in the field in the past.
A successful flow test is crucial to assess the deliverability of the field and move
SeaLion towards commercial stage.
We reiterate our Buy rating and 515p PO/NAV.
TT
mmm..anymore on that neil?
TT
Good news in the office by the way …our investment correspondent kate burgess has returned from maternity leave
TT
doing the rounds of the news room floor now
TT
shall we turn to macro?
TT
there was an interesting note from BarCap this morning
NH
the other big move in the small cap world today is Ceres Power
Ceres Power Holdings PLC (CWR:LSE): Last: 34.00, up 10 (+41.67%), High: 34.00, Low: 25.00, Volume: 717.16k
NH
stock was hammered on Tuesday
NH
ahead of getting kicked out of some MSCI index
NH
after solving a problem with its boiler
NH
it’s providing those combined heat and power boilers
TT
up 41 per cent..that is some move
NH
Ceres re-based some expectations down in March; hence any
technical progress such as that announced today might be
expected to encourage. However, no new timeline was given,
there is still much to do technically, testing will need to be
extensive, and cash is being burnt. We reduce our target price, to
33p from 45p, to reflect continuing risk.
NH
Ceres has announced that one of the several technical glitches announced in
March has been apparently fixed (boiler tuning /calibration), and “good progress”
is being made on the others. The latter, which include reliability and durability
issues, are more challenging in our view and will require cycles of testing that
will take time.
The share price has fallen by 65% in the two months since problems were first
disclosed, to below estimated cash of 33p per share today (£34.2m / 40p per
share at end December 2010 when last reported). This is in line with
management’s comments and means that £14m-16m will have been burnt in a
year. We expect that more equity will be required before commercialisation is in
sight.
NH
A more detailed update will be made some time over the summer. This
presumably means September, when a new timeline is due to be announced.
We believe that more extensive testing will be required than expected and that
delays will be substantial.
With continuing questions over both product and management, there is little
support to the share price. We reduce our TP to 33p, a 40% discount to our 55p
DCF value, to reflect a combination of delivery risk and potential further dilution
TT
yep here is the note from barcap’s Guillermo Mondino ..great name btw
TT
The last few days have shown a somewhat unusual divorce between US Treasury rates and equities (Figure 1). A few key themes could add to the recent separation: there is a growing perception that some form of an agreement will be reached to prolong the Troika’s support of Greece; the soft patch of data that is affecting the US economy could become more sustained, if a fiscal agreement in Congress results in some tightening; and the end of QE2 is unlikely to be very unsettling to fixed income markets, as the demand for duration is likely to remain. Interestingly, with none of the above statements cast in stone, a positive case for risky assets is emerging
TT
As we enter June, the ECB’s hard stance against a Greek soft restructuring seems to be carrying the day. It appears that the veiled threat that a maturity extension exercise would render the ECB unable to act as a lender of last resort to Greek banks has been sufficiently powerful to form, for now, a coalition to help for the ailing Aegean economy further. Greece must do its part and have its parliament approve the extended medium-term fiscal program, including an aggressive privatization schedule. Against such promises, the EU is likely to be able to agree to some conditional support that will facilitate an IMF disbursement and waiver of recent program deviations. In such a scenario, Greece should be able to meet its upcoming July maturities.
Importantly, we also think that the EU and Greece are running out of time to enter a process of orderly restructuring of its debt, if a private sector bailing-in was going to be one of the conditions for additional EU support in late June. Indeed, experience shows that preparing the ground for such a process needs to be carefully executed to prevent a disorderly and self-defeating process where bank runs, activity melt-downs, and outright political collapse could be the outcome. Therefore, while additional support for Greece covering (currently) estimated funding needs through the first half of 2012 may be forthcoming, we continue to believe that this should include a well articulated plan for an eventual restoration of solvency through some liability management
NH
(Fitz not for a long time now)
TT
and lower down in the note
TT
While activity could be somewhat slower (not our call in the US, but a possibility in Asia) and with the prospect of some form of fiscal tightening looming, USD liquidity is likely to remain abundant. Against that backdrop, muddling through in peripheral Europe and MENA helps lift impending threats to risky asset markets. Furthermore, the euro/USD ought to continue to strengthen once the ECB feels freer to hike to address the fundamental economic needs of Northern Europe. In a world with a weaker dollar, a recovery in VIX and equity markets and abundant liquidity, EM assets, a tell-tale sign of global risky assets, ought to perform well.
TT
i should be returning to the day job..but wanted to point out keydata story in the times this morning
TT
not exactly new but expressed a little harder than past speculation
TT
Alex Spence
Last updated May 31 2011 9:47PM
The Serious Fraud Office suspects that a British businessman connected to the Keydata investment scandal may be on the run in South-East Asia, despite being declared dead two years ago.
Investigators at the SFO harbour “serious doubts” that David Elias, who controlled one of two Luxembourg-based companies that provided investment products to Keydata, is actually deceased, a source at the agency said.
Mr Elias, a flamboyant former barrister who had a chequered business career in Britain before fleeing to Singapore in the late 1990s, reportedly died of pneumonia in Singapore in May 2009. However, SFO investigators pursuing more than £100 million in assets missing from Mr Elias’s company SLS Capital believe that he may have faked his death.
TT
The collapse of Keydata in June 2009 was one of the biggest personal finance scandals in recent years and left about 30,000 investors more than £450 million out of pocket. The company was put into administration by the Financial Services Authority because it breached tax rules and was insolvent.
The SFO was called in to investigate by the administrators PwC but said last month that it had dropped its inquiries into Keydata and its former executives, including its founder Stewart Ford because there was insufficient evidence to prosecute. It said that it would concentrate instead on finding £103 million in assets missing from SLS, which managed funds on behalf of about 5,500 Keydata investors.
TT
btw Ronnie Biggs once lived on the street where i grew up in Glenelg North in Adelaide..he was there many years earlier but a true story…
NH
which is much further away
NH
phamsushi.co.uk
We cater for meetings, parties and functions. All our sushi are traditionally hand made, using the best fresh fish and vegetables.
NH
apparently it’s very good
TT
have not heard of that…
NH
so could be difficult to find
NH
PHAM SPECIAL
Scallop Sashimi with creamy spicy sauce
Snowcrab with creamy spicy sauce
Scallop steak
Turbot with amaebi new style
Salmon Sashimi roll
Dancing scallop
Eel harumaki spring roll
Black cod miso
Jumbo prawn with yuzu and wasabi sauce
White tuna with chef special sauce
Escolar special
Twin dragon
Gyu asparagus with ponzu
Summer yellow tail roll
Lobster tempura
NH
SPECIAL SASHIMI
Toro with Jalapeno
Scallop new style
Salmon new style
Yellow tail with jalapeno
Tuna tataki
Octopus tiraditor
Seabass tiraditor
Tuna steak with jalapeno
TT
yum…it is making me hungry
TT
i rarely get invited out as a news editor…
TT
still recommend l’Anima next time you are in the area though
TT
(good point Soundbuy..another one to add to the daily mail list)
TT
(whyte van Mann…we are still ehre…)
NH
thanks for the comments