Actually, not anonymous at all. Just very awkward company for Greece at the moment, with the idea of a private bond maturity extension back on the table as part of a second bailout.
Here’s a chart courtesy of Exotix, the frontier markets specialists. Click to enlarge:
Notice anything? Most sovereigns who did a soft restructuring were already in default, or reduced to Paris Club debt relief, or were lucky enough to be able to swap all their debt in one go. (Jamaica probably belongs on this list too for that reason.)
So, it’s the kind of chart worth stapling to the forehead of the next official who talks about a Greek bond maturity extension as if it’s a move away from default. It’s not. As our FT Tilt colleagues note, Exotix is warning in particular about comparing a Greek maturity deal to Uruguay’s swap. But even beyond that comparison, all the ‘successful’ re-profiling precedents are of poor use for Greece and suggest an uncomfortably close relationship with default (or credit events).
Although it is interesting that Exotix pick out this bit from an old (2003) IMF staff review of what Uruguay did (page 50):
The exchange may present a useful example for other countries in some aspects, but it would be premature to try to draw too many generalized lessons from this specific exchange. In particular, other cases, which might require larger NPV reductions or where the banking system hold large amounts of government debt, may well be more difficult to handle…
Greece’s twin problems, seen as far back as 2003. Kind of amazing really. So, Exotix think the Argentine 2001 ‘mega-swap’ (which we’ve talked about before) really is the nearest fit for where Greece finds itself now regarding ‘voluntary’ debt roll-over by investors.
Although let’s not be too strict about analogies. Argentina didn’t get to the second IMF loan until after it swapped…
Related links:
Muddle along for now, but Greek default inevitable – FT
The case for Uruguay – FT Tilt
The guilty Greek maturities – FT Alphaville
First you get the money, then you do the restructuring – FT Alphaville