Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:23 on 19 May 2011. Participants in this chat were: bryce.elder Tony Tassell
BE
And welcome to Markets Live
BE
FT Alphaville’s … oh, you know the routine.
BE
And good morning to you, Tony.
BE
Which colour of armband do you have?
TT
i think you owe a few peoplle some apologies Bryce
TT
i distinctly remember the other day you saying it was beyond why someone would devote their working careers to something called non-life insurance
BE
Yes. You make a fair point.
TT
By ERIK HOLM and ULRIKE DAUER
A unit of German insurer Munich Re hired about 20 prostitutes for a 2007 party in Budapest as a reward for some of its top salesmen, according to a newspaper account that was confirmed by company representatives Wednesday.
The party for about 100 insurance agents was held at Budapest’s historic Gellert spa, according to company spokeswoman Alexandra Klemme. A manager and a management-board member who approved the party left the company before other senior executives learned details of the party, Ms. Klemme said.
TT
Prostitutes hired for the event were designated with armbands, German newspaper Handelsblatt said in an online preview of an article to be published Thursday.
The prostitutes escorted party attendees to beds set up near the spa’s thermal baths, and would earn a stamp on their forearm upon their return to keep a running tally of their services, the newspaper said.
“This incident is clearly not at all in line with any rules and ideals our company stands for,” another Munich Re representative, Alexander Becker, said in an interview.
BE
Quite simply the finance story of the year.
TT
the American must have a very distored view of europeans at the moment
TT
in the wake of the DSK affair
BE
Yup. It’s continuing the recent trend in the financial press
BE
Affairs with Big Brother contestants, (alleged) maid molestation, and now colour-coded hookery.
TT
on the DSK affair, who would have thunk it
BE
All in your super soaraway FT.
TT
DSK is a smashing pumpkins fan
TT
as someone on twttier pointed out
TT
“It is with infinite sadness that I feel compelled today to present to the Executive Board my resignation from my post of Managing Director of the IMF”
BE
Good album, Infinite Sadness.
TT
great piece of music mellon collie and the infinite sadness
BE
And Billy Corgan’s now 50-1 to take over at the IMF.
TT
and sadly Gordon Brown is 8 to 1
BE
Oh – don’t mention that.
BE
You’ll start them off.
TT
did you see Jeremy Warner’s demolition of him as a candidate this morning
BE
No. Did it mention that HE SOLD OUR GOLD AT THE BOTTOM!!!!111!11 one one.
TT
well he did put the boot in
TT
Yet the deeper criticism of Mr Brown is simply that he is not up to the job. He’s neither a natural leader, nor does he obviously possess the diplomatic skills necessary to unite such a snake-pit of conflicting national interests. Whatever his other character faults, Mr Strauss-Kahn plainly had these qualities.
Mr Brown is as much despised as admired among IMF staffers. As a long-serving chairman of the fund’s policy committee, his reputation was of a bullying, autocratic style, intolerant of criticism and unsympathetic to rival points of view.
BE
(@Firean: don’t be tiresome.)
TT
(Firean – i seem to remember a few scandals on the other side of the atlantic too – cvlinton, gingrich, the south carolina governor who went for walks on the appalachian trails)
TT
my favourite euphemism for uganda relations at the moemnt – going for a walk on the appalachian trails
TT
so anyway we should focus a little on the markets
TT
we hve a bit to talk about
TT
(pakora..you are right..an excellent choice for the IMF – Fred Goodwin)
BE
Well, should we start with the Enron in the room?
Glencore International Plc (GLEN:LSE): Last: 542.50, up 542.5 (), High: 553.17, Low: 530.00, Volume: 234.85m
TT
that was a slip i assume with glencore
BE
Of course of course of course.
TT
mmm…very very tricker for the book runners this one
TT
too much of an opening day pop and ivan glasenberg would not be happy about leaving too much on the table
TT
too little and it is a damp squib
TT
i can imagine a trader like glasenberg being very very demanding on this
TT
sadly it is leaning damb squibish
BE
(And, incidentally, is anyone else looking at this two-day rebound and thinking conspiratorial thoughts?)
TT
i thought the shareholder line up was very interesting
TT
some of glencore critics seem to have jumped on board at the last minute
TT
notably standard life which has emerged as one of the biggest shareholders
TT
a little while ago it was saying
TT
tandard Life said Glencore was already confirming fears about behaviour in its boardroom that could damage its float. ‘Good succession planning is a hallmark of good governance,’ it said.
Standard added that ‘too often’ companies looking to float tried to ‘cobble their boards together at the eleventh hour’.
It added shares in such firms deserve to be marked down by investors for their conduct. Glencore later put out a statement saying Simon Murray – an adventurer who fought with the French Foreign Legion – will take the chair.
BE
You have basically no choice but to buy Glencore.
TT
but you have a choice to overweight or underweight..Standard Life is not an index tracker as a whole
TT
but yes you generally have to buy glencore if you are an index hugger or tracker
TT
a lot of pension money is now riding on Glencore’s prospects
TT
and i am sure that makes everyone feel very comfortable
TT
a bit like your pension fund being invested in goldman
TT
still the opening day pop is not bad considering the poor macro background this morning for commodity demand
TT
the news that Japan’s economy was much worse than expected in the first quarter
BE
And it was nice of Western Australia to raise iron ore taxes
BE
On the day of the biggest mining float in a lifetime.
TT
ah…revenge for bodyline?
BE
Anyway – let’s have a view on the right.
BE
Glencore: buyers or sellers at 540p?
BE
Personally, I’m in the latter camp.
TT
are you putting it into the muppett alpha fund?
BE
Oh, haven’t freshened that up for a long time.
BE
Well, let’s look at the criteria here
TT
i feel like the stock will probably do well..just not sure how comfortable i would be in owning it
BE
Well, the float can be seen as nothing more than a disguised bailout of creditors.
BE
After they were unable to meet calls in 2008
BE
And came to some informal arrangements to keep the thing in working capital.
BE
But then wouldn’t extend credit.
BE
It has been suggested, I should add.
TT
some of investors who will have the opportunity to convert some of their bonds into equity very soon…but the dilution is only about 5.5 per cent
BE
So ….. Seller at 540p?
TT
i have great hesitation in recommending a stock that i do not understand all the dynamics of..
TT
they are smart guys but it is very hard to have any visibility on the future sustainability and cycles of the company
TT
so i think the stock will rise..but i would personally pass on the personal account
BE
That’s hedging your bets.
BE
Right – we should move on.
TT
anyway there are far more compelling stock stories out there…like ocado for instance
An internet food retailer that many believe is the second coming of Webvan. Loss making yet valued at close to £1bn on flotation.
BE
Supergroup, Autonomy, Gulf Thingmybob.
BE
So we’ve not mentioned the wider market yet.
BE
FTSE continues to

TT
again not bad considering the backdrop
BE
Without too much help from commodities
Xstrata PLC (XTA:LSE): Last: 1,400, down 5 (-0.36%), High: 1,438, Low: 1,382, Volume: 6.38m
Anglo American PLC (AAL:LSE): Last: 3,007, up 31 (+1.04%), High: 3,038, Low: 2,965, Volume: 1.48m
BHP Billiton PLC (BLT:LSE): Last: 2,405, up 25 (+1.05%), High: 2,430, Low: 2,388, Volume: 3.87m
TT
javier blas says commodities now a bout a third of the ftse 100
BE
That’s pre Glencore I think.
TT
no it is post glencore
BE
Oh – right. Not that big a change by weighting then.
TT
the initial weighting might not be as large as you think because of the relatively smaller free float
BE
And we should also mention that Glencore steps directly into the FTSE 100 tomorrow
BE
Almost certainly at the expense of Invensys
Invensys PLC (ISYS:LSE): Last: 297.20, down 12.2 (-3.94%), High: 304.90, Low: 286.10, Volume: 7.36m
TT
javier says the initial free float is only consider to be about 20 per cent because of all the shareholder lock ins etc
TT
but that rises ina year when the lock-ins expire
BE
As I say. This is not a float, it’s a disguised creditor bailout. It could be alleged.
BE
So anyway, you want to start with the risers or the fallers?
TT
risers first..start on an upbeat note
Barclays PLC (BARC:LSE): Last: 279.45, up 8.75 (+3.23%), High: 280.90, Low: 271.80, Volume: 24.15m
BE
Post an upgrade from Alex Potter
BE
Formerly of Collins Stewart
BE
He reckons it’s cheap.
BE
(Perhaps deservedly so, some may argue.)
BE
We are upgrading Barclays to Buy (from Hold). Results in late
April were disappointing, but estimates are only cut c.5% underlying.
We view the very weak stock price performance and now-cheap
valuation as an over-reaction, even though Barclays remains a
relatively high-risk investment, in our view. RBS remains our preferred
long-term UK bank (RBS LN, Buy, PT 53p).
BE
• Recent results showed weaker revenues. BarCap posted revenues
below management’s guided run rate, and consensus, but not out of
line with trends shown by the US peer group. Yes, estimates needed
downgrading due to this, but a de-rating relative to that peer group
seems harsh to us. Our revenue estimates are cut c.3%, and profits by
10%, mainly due to inclusion of £400m for the UK bank levy.
BE
• Barclays has sharply underperformed its peers since the results.
The stock has fallen more than 10% since the eve of the results on 27
April. RBS has barely moved, GS is down 6.6%, MS 5% and BAC just
1%. Only Lloyds, which issued a tacit profit warning around UK
margins, has performed as badly.
BE
• Capital and funding were improved in the quarter. Core Tier 1 is
up 20bp (to 11.2%) and the loan-deposit ratio is down to 119% (from
124%) and is just three months. RBS is now sub-100%, but Lloyds, at
147%), is materially weaker than Barclays.
BE
• Regulatory risks remain high. With the impact of ICB ring-fencing,
“SIFI” capital surcharges and Lehman litigation still outstanding,
Barclays is a relatively high-risk situation in our view. We are bearish
on the sector as a whole, and believe all three domestic UK banks will
remain range-bound for some time.
BE
• In the longer term, we believe Barclays can generate an RoE
greater than its cost of equity. CEO Bob Diamond has, as yet,
outlined relatively little of his strategic overhaul of the group, but the
upcoming investor day on 15 June gives him the opportunity to
present more radical solutions which are not (yet) priced into our
thinking.
BE
• Barclays is now the cheapest bank in the UK (and one of the
cheapest in Europe), in our opinion. It trades at 0.78x 2011E tangible
book value (RBS: 0.82x, Lloyds: 0.99x) and just 7.4x 2012E earnings
(RBS: 6.4x, Lloyds: 8.2x). Our target price has been cut to reflect
rebased earnings (to 310p from 340p), but we see a trading
opportunity here.
TT
i wonder how hector sants plan to require banks to diclose details on their risk-weighted assets and other financial information is going down at barclays..i am sure very well
TT
this was our splash this morning
TT
Banks would also be forced to make public detailed information about their holdings that they currently share only with regulators, Hector Sants told the Financial Times as he prepared to unveil the detailed plans for a new authority that will supervise banks and insurers for safety and soundness.
Some investors have long complained that banks provide only cursory, non-standard data that makes it all but impossible to compare their relative risk.
“In recent years there has been a shift into more market opacity and a reduction in investor confidence. We are trying to redress that balance,” said Mr Sants
TT
a lot of the analysts have been telling us it would make a big difference to analysing the banks
BE
I reiterate my earlier “hm.”
BE
ITV finding support on a Bernstein upgrade
BE
Since the beginning of 2010, ITV has been spurred on by a combination of an advertising recovery
in the UK TV market and a new, refreshingly realistic, management team. However, in recent
weeks, the share price has suffered on the back of news (some provided by the company itself) that Q2
will be more difficult than many investors had anticipated. Since the FY2010 results presentation on the
2nd March, ITV’s share price has declined 37% relative to the MSCI Europe (and also 37% relative to the
FTSE 100). This has resulted in ITV trading at 15.2% and 15.8% discounts to the MSCI, using consensus
EPS forecasts, on one and two year forward P/E. We believe this represents a very cheap price and an
excellent entry point on the stock; as a comparison, ITV’s historical average premia to market, since the
company’s formation in 2004, is 62% on a forward one year basis and 45% on a two year basis. Even
over the last twelve-month recovery, ITV has traded at 19.0 and 11.3% premia to market for one and two
year forward P/E respectively, and so the current valuation represents 34.2 and 27.1% discounts to the
past 12 months average.
BE
Our upgrade is based on the inexpensive valuation. The current share price discounts an excessive
EPS shortfall relative to both our and consensus forecasts. In order for the current valuation to represent a
premium to the market of 19% (the average of the past 12 months), EPS would have to be 5.1p (vs. our
forecast of 8.4p and consensus of 7.1p, respectively), representing a 20.3% decline in EPS from 2010.
This, in turn, requires ad revenues to come in at £1,414 million (assuming that everything else is equal), a
5.5% decline over 2010 actual ad revenues. Even assuming that the long term premium should be 0, the
2011 EPS should be 6.0p, in which case the NAR would have to decline by 2.5% over 2010 actual
revenue. Our target price of 100p would represent a very modest 9% premium over the MSCI on our
2011 EPS forecast and a 27% premium to the MSCI on consensus EPS of 7.1p (which we believe is
overly pessimistic).
BE
Not that one. Sanford C.
BE
Very well followed in the over-brokered sector of meeeja, is Bernstein.
BE
The management teams of European TV companies are – for the most part – still arguing that the sector has
been affected by a very difficult economic cycle, but that the industry is not in a structural decline. We
disagree. While we expect the advertising markets to recover in the near term, to the benefit of the FTA
broadcasters, we still believe that the next years will lead investors to recognize that technological
innovation and changes in consumer behaviour are going to continue to affect negatively the incumbents.
Pay TV incumbents are likely to prove more resilient than FTA TV in the near term, but they will also face,
at some point, additional competition. Despite our concerns for the longevity of the FTA broadcasting
model, we believe the current near term pessimism over the UK TV advertising market is, to a large degree,
unfounded, and has resulted in an undue diminution of ITV’s share price. On a current valuation, rather than
structural, perspective we rate ITV Outperform (target price £1.00).
TT
infinite sadness had a touch of the bernstein about it
BE
(@anthrax: perhaps they’ll buy Friends Reunited back.)
TT
how have the shares been performning..archie norman has a lot riding on it
BE
Came off quite sharply post the last set of numbers.
BE
Which, as feared, showed advertising going through the floor in April.
BE
Though, I was talking to an ITV fan last week
TT
(JWpropacc…a good read)
BE
Who pointed out that TV audiences are actually growing
BE
More people are watching telly.
TT
Didn’t britain’s got talent slaughter eurovision in the ratings
BE
Precisely. And, if you’re a Tesco or a Direct Line, you want the big audiences that can only be delievered by some ropey talent show.
BE
Internet doesn’t cut it.
BE
Newspapers, sadly, don’t cut it.
BE
Only TV can speak to the mass market.
BE
That’s the ITV buy case, anyway.
TT
where shall we turn to
TT
one of your favourite high street names bryce
TT
had an investor day yesterday
TT
lots of bullish notes about
TT
did it have any impact on the share price?
BE
Aha. Another crowdpleaser.
BE
£25 Scart cables and staff who don’t know how to tuy their own shoelaces.
Dixons Retail PLC (DXNS:LSE): Last: 18.62, up 0.16 (+0.87%), High: 18.97, Low: 18.24, Volume: 7.46m
TT
mmm…well the notes were a litte mixed..i did not understand this one at all from investec
TT
The investor visit to Dixons’ Newark distribution centre, repair and service facilities
showcased an impressive and growing source of competitive advantage within the
UK. Similar initiatives are being pursued in its European operations as well. Dixons
now has the potential to monetise its capabilities within the Added Value Service
market, where it punches below its product market share weight. It is adding other
third-party services to brand manufacturers. These could over time add “tens of
millions” of profits.
BE
(@Osh: regarding Mr Goodwin? Yes, we’ll come to that.)
TT
this was better from Numis
TT
Do Dixons KNOWHOW to improve customer service?
While we remain of the opinion that electricals remains a tough space to be in, we
think the operational steps Dixons has taken over the last few years puts it in a
strong position to take significant market share. In addition, the launch of
KNOWHOW in March could help Dixons take a meaningful share of the £500m
Added Value Services market, potentially adding significant profit to the bottom
line. Although we remain neutral, we are beginning to warm to the Dixons story.
n Against a tough backdrop: The external environment remains tough: low consumer
confidence, electricals deflation and rising inflation, and a declining electricals spend.
However, we think the best operators will start to take significant market share,
supported by suppliers wanting showrooms for their products.
n Retail basics sorted: Yesterdays visit to the KNOWHOW facility demonstrated the
operational steps Dixons has taken in the last 2.5yrs. The successful execution of the
R+T plan to improve the portfolio and introduce new format stores has been proven by
significant performance uplift and has been supported by class leading logistics.
TT
Customer service KNOWHOW: While customers have clearly appreciated store
improvements, the latest Verdict report shows Currys continues to score low on
service. The launch of the KNOWHOW customer service offering is intended to change
this by supporting customers through the whole purchase and ownership process.
n Potential to take meaningful share of £500m market: We think KNOWHOW has
potential to help Dixons make headway in matching its 30% retail market share in the
£500m Added Value Services market, while growing margin and building customer
relationships. Dixons is also building a profitable 3rd party business, already providing
installation and repair services to Whirlpool with 4 other partners lined up.
n Warming up to Dixons: Dixons now offers a complete service to customers and in our
opinion is currently unmatched by competitors and difficult to mirror without scale.
While we make no change to our figures on the back of the investor day, recognising
the strength of the management team and Dixons opportunity to take market share
against weaker competitors we are beginning to warm to the Dixons story and raise our
TP to 18p, representing just over 11x Apr-12 earnings.
TT
but probably the best summary came from nick bubb at arden predicably..at least the most readable
TT
Dixons (Neutral): Yesterday’s analyst’s trip to Dixons’ servicing operation and distribution warehouse in Newark was organised with military precision (as befits a site that used to be a RAF Vulcan bomber base) and the UK management team came across well. To be fair, the big trip a year ago to the new Currys Megastore in Thurrock also went well and the lack of impact of all the store revamp efforts on moving UK profits forward can make one cynical…but the focus yesterday was on “back-office” systems and stuff and we hadn’t realised how much has changed behind the scenes in terms of reshaping the Buying and Merchandising operations and integrating them in with a new focus on customer research and services.
TT
The new umbrella title for the latter is KNOWHOW (the old Tech Guys servicing operation) and though Dixons does not have a good record on choosing names for things the KNOWHOW name is growing in us, as it can be used for a whole series of marketing slogans and phrases (eg “We don’t know how to forecast UK profits but we can judge a good analysts trip”). Whether Dixons can make more money out of “paid-for” services remains to be seen, but it can certainly make money out of its expertise in product repair and we were impressed with the expertise on display in the Newark repair lab and the focus on improving repair times and customer service. The UK economic headwinds remain a problem, but we feel more encouraged about the UK recovery potential and have our target price of 17p under review.
BE
Right. So Tech Guys is now called KNOWHOW
BE
Their capitals, not mine.
BE
Like Geek Squad at Carphone Warehouse.
TT
i would like to be visited by a geek squad
BE
We should send one of our regular spod readers along to ask the KNOWHOW people a few tricky questions.
TT
like how to get markets live starting on time in the morning
BE
I was thinking more along the lines of: “What’s the difference between a £10 HDMI cable and a £30 one?”
BE
Though, if they want to fix our own rubbish computers, that’d be nice too.
TT
i am sure you know…you were not a member of that squad were you
TT
you seem to know what a HDMI cable is..that qualifies as geekish
BE
I’ve never hidden the fact that I’m a bit spoddy.
BE
The number of wrecked gadgets on my desk should prove that.
TT
nor should you byrce..be proud of your inner geek..hey we are financial journalists after all
BE
Anyway, we should move on.
BE
So we’re all getting a bit excited about this.
BE
Peer raises Fred Goodwin super-injunction in Lords
BE
A peer has used Parliamentary rules to reveal more details of the super-injunction relating to former Royal Bank of Scotland boss Sir Fred Goodwin
TT
it was kind of inevitable that the issue would be raised in parliament
BE
Tony – are we allowed to quote what Lord Stoneham has said?
TT
not sure…it depends on how accurate the reports are of the comments
BE
May be safest to wait for the Hansard record then.
TT
i suspect readers can find their own way to them
BE
Googling “senior colleague” will probably give you a few responses.
TT
you will not be able to escape coverage of it anyway…do you think ken clarke put oakeshott up to it
TT
anyway anything moving?
BE
Invensys was mentioned earlier on the right.
TT
(alanjhay…and that is usually after threatening to set yourself on fire unless you get some service)
Invensys PLC (ISYS:LSE): Last: 297.80, down 11.6 (-3.75%), High: 304.90, Low: 286.10, Volume: 7.90m
TT
do you have any commentary on invensys
BE
Yup – basically saying that while results are exactly as feared
BE
There’s a downgrade to rail
BE
(Which I thought had been widely flagged.)
BE
Oh – the Telegraph is swift with this stuff.
BE
URL says it all, really.
BE
Right – sorry for that distraction.
BE
Still no exact answers why the CEO was booted out in March
BE
Though the head of rail has followed him out the door.
BE
Right – here’s what the downgrades look like.
BE
Invensys reported H2 2010/11 revenues of £1,324m, up 11% at CER, 4%
above consensus, due to stronger-than-expected sales at the Operations Management
division. Operating profit before restructuring reached £162m, in line with consensus. By
division, Invensys Operations Management (45% of group sales) reported strong revenues of
£626m in H2 (+17% at CER) driven by new greenfield projects in emerging markets launched
during H2 2010/11. The dilutive impact of these projects on the margin was more than
compensated by positive leverage on volumes, with operating profit of £78m in H2 (+11%
above consensus); implying an operating margin of 12.5%, up 130bp yoy, whereas we were
expecting a contraction. Invensys Rail revenues reached £420m in H2 (+14% at CER) with
operating profit of £78m; this implies a margin of 18.6%, back at historical levels after project
charges weighed on the H1 margin. Invensys Controls reported revenues of £278m in H2
(down 4% at CER) and operating profit of £32m, with the margin down 210bp, due to softerthan-
expected demand for household appliances in the US, a trend that is continuing as
recently suggested by weak shipment figures for household appliances in North America
(down 21.6% in April according to AHAM).
BE
Potential impact on forecasts We see limited changes in consensus expectations as the
stronger-than-expected performance at the Operations Management division more than
offset the disappointment at the Controls branch. The outlook is strong for the
Operations Management division with improved demand across all regions linked to
increased industrial capex. But the group has lowered its margin guidance for its Rail
division from 17-18% down to 15-17% due to development costs and investment on
order to expand its presence in emerging markets.
BE
Potential impact on share price/recommendation Uncertainty remains high following the
additional change in management (new Rail CEO) announced today. We have a Hold rating
and a 325p TP based on a DCF (WACC of 9.0%, LT growth rate of 2.0% and normalised
margin of 11%). Risks: to the upside include a possible major contract win in Rail in Saudi
Arabia and/or Denmark, on the downside, revised outlook post the CEO change.
BE
Invensys reported FY 2011 EBIT of £262m, broadly inline with consensus
(£261m). This is reassuring in our view, given lingering concerns on near-term
execution and operating performance. It reflects a decent performance in IOM on
orders/margins, an okay result in Rail and weaker margins in Controls. However,
while FY 2011 was better than some had feared, 2012 is more of an issue.
BE
Rail clouds 2012 and beyond
The outlook for the overall group is a “further year of progress” which in Invensys
speak means EBIT ahead of 2011’s £262m. However, medium term Rail margins
have been revised lower to 15-17% from a long term target of 17-18%. The impact
seems more short term too, as FY 2012 Rail margins are unlikely to be any
different than 2011 at about 16.7% vs consensus at 18%. This is due to ongoing
bidding/growth costs. The head of Rail has been replaced which will compound
worries. One positive is that rail orders were actually stable in H2 vs H1 though.
BE
Consensus will have to cut FY 12 by 5%
With rail margins likely to be weaker, and the Controls division showing no
obvious signs of recovery (latest US appliance data not great) we think consensus
will trim 2012 estimates by at least 5%. IOM is a saviour which stops it being
worse, and the pension deficit came in lower than we thought. Invensys has derated
in recent weeks, but we see no compelling reasons to turn more positive.
BE
Right – Tony’s run off to speak to the lawyer.
BE
(@Monkey: long time no see.)
BE
In the meantime, what else can we mention?
BE
(@Monkey: not sure. When are you organising it?)
BE
Ah – request on the right for Afren.
Afren PLC (AFR:LSE): Last: 157.20, up 8.8 (+5.93%), High: 159.00, Low: 150.34, Volume: 2.68m
BE
Here’s Liberum with a summary.
BE
Few surprises in Afren’s IMS. Working interest production for Q1 2011 was 9,700 bbls/day, reflecting the
achievement of cost recovery in Okoro.
Phase 2 of the EBOK development is progressing as expected. EBOK gross production is currently is 17,000
bbls/day and we expect Afren to achieve the 35,000 bbls/day target once Phase 2 is complete
BE
East African exploration acreage looks increasingly promising and we view the farm-in to the Tanzanian Tanga
licence, contiguous to the two Kenyan licences already held by Afren, as an improvement to the portfolio.
Management have disclosed the Gross P50 resources for this licence as 200 mmboe. It has just finished a 2D
seismic acquisition, calling the early results “encouraging”, and expects to commence drilling by year end.
BE
There appear to be few catalysts in the near term. The next newsflow looks like either a licence acquisition in
Nigeria from an Oil Major or results from the Keta well in Ghana due in Q3 (up to 70p if successful).
Overall the IMS contains little new and we do not expect to change our numbers significantly on the back of it.
Our PT remains at 167p. HOLD.
BE
And Morgan Stanley’s a bit more positive.
BE
Minor operational issues (CI-11 unrest & Ebok
delays) impacted 1Q production (~10kboed) but
FY11 production guidance unchanged at 40kboed.
We believe the market materially under appreciates and
undervalues the strength of the core asset base and
upside potential that exists across the portfolio. With
production at Ebok already ahead of expectations and
set to ramp-up yet further in 2Q; plus an exciting 2H
drilling campaign ahead we reiterate our OW & 215p PT.
BE
Acquisitions: With the Nigerian elections now over, we
expect more rapid progress to be made on ensuring the
formal completion of the OML 26 transaction. Elsewhere,
management reiterated its financial prudence by
targeting an average acquisition cost of ~$4/boe and a
preference for bilateral negotiations. For these reasons,
we would be surprised if Afren bid highly aggressively in
the recent Shell auction process. * 2011 production
guidance excludes OML 26.
BE
One time costs drive 1Q loss: Afren announced a 1Q
EPS loss of 1.2c/sh, with net-debt at end 1Q of $291m
and cash of $333m. 1Q net income was impacted by
~$10m hedging loss and another ~$10m loss
associated with the early repayment of debt.
BE
Valuation: Afren continues to trade at an unwarranted
discount to Core NAV and is one of the cheapest stocks
we cover. Our Core and Base NAV remain broadly
unchanged at 159p/sh and 214p/sh, representing +7%
and +45% upside, respectively.
BE
Catalysts: Looking forward to a 2H11 weighted
exploration programme 1) Cuda prospect (3Q11, Ghana,
325mboe, unrisked ~72p/sh); 2) Okwok (2H11, Nigeria,
70mboe, 27p/sh unrisked; and 3) Ebok D2 (Nigeria,
35mboe, ~11p/sh unrisked, 2H11). Elsewhere, a
farm-down of Afren’s 70% interest in OPL-310 is on
going with a result also expected in 2H11.
BE
andyalan10: haven’t read the British Land or National Grid numbers.
BE
As for TalkTalk, it’s a case of being less bad than expected.
BE
They’ve been in a rather vicious price war.
BE
With BT’s discount brand.
BE
The thing with internet providers, of course, is that you cut the monthly rate then hike the call charges.
BE
It’s all swings and roundabouts.
Talktalk Telecom Group Plc (TALK:LSE): Last: 139.60, up 8.1 (+6.16%), High: 141.40, Low: 134.90, Volume: 1.56m
BE
FY11 results are good and FY12 outlook should provide scope for small
upgrades, while the implied FY12 divi of 8p/share is 21% ahead of expectations.
With cost reductions and EBITDA expansion clearly on track, confidence in
forecasts should increase. Our target price remains 180p and we upgrade to Buy.
BE
FY11 results show slight revenue weakness but efficiencies clearly coming through
Headline figures are revs of £1,765m up 4.7% yoy (company-compiled cons. £1,777m);
headline EBITDA of £276m up 20.0% yoy (cons £271m); headline EPS of 13.5p up 8.0% yoy
(cons 13.0p); DPS of 5.6p for the full year is in line with expectations. Broadband subscribers
fell 25k in the quarter, in line with the decline in the prior quarter. Although revenues are
slightly light vs consensus (0.7% below), EBITDA is a 2% beat and EPS of 13.5p is at the
top-end of the companys original guidance and 4% ahead of consensus.
BE
FY12 guidance offers small upgrades EPS, implied divi 21% above expectations
Guidance is for flat revenues (about 1% below consensus); EBITDA margin of 17-18%
(consensus 17.2%); EPS of 15.5-16.5p (cons 15.6p); dividend payout ratio of 50% of
earnings, implying an 8p dividend vs consensus of 6.6p (up 21% on consensus); Op FCF 10-
11% of revenues (ie £177m-194m vs consensus £198m). Medium-term targets (revenue
growth 2% and EBITDA margin 20%) have been reiterated. Guidance for next year is slightly
ahead of current consensus at the mid-point of the range from EBITDA and below, with the
mid-point of the EPS range 2.6% better than consensus and the implied dividend guidance is
21% ahead of expectations. We have yet to update our forecasts, but note that the mid-point
of EBITDA and EPS guidance is 2.7% and 4.6% ahead of our forecasts respectively.
BE
Upgrade to Buy, masters of their own destiny
We believe these results provide considerable comfort that the efficiency programme is
delivering the expected results and showing the company is currently the master of its own
destiny. While revenue weakness and subscriber declines are far from ideal, the companys
expectation for a flat subscriber base in FY12, but exiting the year delivering net adds
suggests the mid-term ambition is for some customer base growth. Trading on FY12-13F 8-
9x EPS, 4.5-5x EBITDA and a prospective divi yield of more than 6% (growing), we believe
TalkTalk offers good value and upgrade our recommendation to Buy. Our target price
remains unchanged at 180p offering 36% upside to yesterdays close.
BE
Yup – and welcome back.
BE
Always exciting to be live legaled.
TT
shall we turn to something less specific like some macro views…
BE
Sure. Go for it. What’s happening?
TT
i thought the Greece row story was pretty extraordinary..
TT
Row within Europe over Greece
By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt, Quentin Peel in Berlin and Kerin Hope in Athens
Published: May 18 2011 20:39 | Last updated: May 18 2011 23:10
The European Central Bank has criticised proposals for a possible restructuring of Greek sovereign debts, laying bare a behind-the-scenes row between ECB technocrats and European Union politicians over Greece’s debt crisis.
The ECB officials warned that any move to delay repayments would be a dangerous distraction from Athens’ economic and fiscal reform plans.
This month Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, walked out of a meeting hosted by Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg’s prime minister. According to people familiar with events at the meeting, Mr Trichet was angry at talk of a so-called “soft” restructuring that could involve an extension of Greek debt maturities.
TT
this is a story that is going to run and run
BE
(@Phil: Plusnet. They were making a big song and dance about undercutting TalkTalk by 50p a month earlier this year.)
TT
remind me Bryce what would happen to the ECB’s holdings of Greek bonds if the country went through a restructuring
TT
probably not good for them is it? what kind of writedowns would it suffer…
TT
and how much new capital would need to compensate
BE
You know the answer better than me, I suspect. What are we looking at here?
TT
good note from the sage Stephen Lews of Monument this morning on that
TT
on the concept of repprofiling…
TT
for markets that is..not what DSK is going through
TT
The problem with reprofiling, as with EU bank stress tests, is that its success depends on universal acceptance of a peculiarly Continental concept of truth. EU leaders seem to think that if they devise verbal formulae bringing objective reality into conformity with the written rules, their problem, whatever it may be, is solved. They seem to believe, if they coin a word, ‘reprofiling’, to denote the restructuring of sovereign debt, then, in some overriding sense, no restructuring will have taken place.
TT
By contrast, financial markets, though they may be bamboozled by words from time to time, tend to look through them to the hard facts, the underlying gains and losses arising from economic and financial activity. That euro zone leaders’ attempt to canvass the advantages of reprofiling has been so half-hearted suggests they are beginning to understand market reality.
TT
and one other point on that
TT
There must also be a concern as to whether the credit rating agencies would regard debt reprofiling as tantamount to default. As a general rule, they regard any variation in the terms of debt service that is prejudicial to the interests of creditors as a default. There can be little doubt that not receiving an interest payment on a bond at the due time or of the scheduled amount would be a change in terms that does not favour the bondholder. If debt reprofiling were implemented, the creditors, that is in this instance the bondholders, would be worse off. But they would be better off than they might have been in the event of a complete cessation of payments by the debtor-government. Perhaps, rating agencies could bend the rules and not declare the bonds concerned to be in default. After all, they are already in bad odour with EU political leaders and might be reluctant to take action that would wreck an EU-sponsored rescue package.
TT
where shall we go to next…
BE
Well, just about done I think.
BE
We both have day jobs to get back to.
TT
yes…it has been an exciting session though
BE
Nothing jumping out at me among the smallcaps really.
TT
i must run…lunch shortly with Peter Clarke of Man
BE
Ah – that’ll be an interesting one.
Man Group PLC (EMG:LSE): Last: 253.60, up 7.9 (+3.22%), High: 254.20, Low: 245.30, Volume: 4.32m
TT
many thanks for having me…always an honour
BE
Have a good afternoon, everyone.