Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:28 on 4 May 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT bryce.elder
NH
welcome to markets live
NH
I need to fix something
BE
What was needing fixed? Typo? We know how much the readers love to spot the typos.
NH
news of another deal in the US is breaking
NH
RTRS-CONAGRA FOODS PROPOSES $4.9 BILLION COMBINATION WITH RALCORP HOLDINGS
11:00 04May11 RTRS-CONAGRA FOODS INC SAYS ALL-CASH PROPOSAL OF $86 PER SHARE
11:00 04May11 RTRS-CONAGRA FOODS INC – DEAL FOR $86 PER SHARE
11:00 04May11 RTRS-CONAGRA FOODS INC SAYS COMBINATION WOULD BE ACCRETIVE TO SALES GROWTH, OPERATING MARGINS, AND EPS
NH
that could have read across
Premier Foods PLC (PFD:LSE): Last: 33.44, up 0.23 (+0.69%), High: 33.71, Low: 32.85, Volume: 2.38m
BE
Ralcorp own the American Italian Pasta Company
BE
Ralston Foods, which does “hot cereals”
BE
As in, household this side of the pond?
NH
it’s a deal a day state side at the moment
NH
that same can’t be said
BE
Ralcorp also makes Hoody’s Nuts.
BE
They’re the nut brand favoured by hoodies, I assume.
BE
And Nutcracker brands.
NH
and popular at tailgate parties
NH
sitting in the boot of a car
BE
Hoody’s does not purchase peanut butter, paste or any other nut products manufactured by Peanut Corporation of America (PCA). Therefore, Harvest Manor Farms is NOT recalling any products in connection with the recent salmonella outbreak involving peanut butter manufactured by PCA.
BE
Anyway, any reaction in Premier yet?
NH
and few nerves over Chinese tightening
NH
FTSE 100 currently off 31 points at 6,051
NH
which seems to have knocked a few of the miners
NH
it all comes from the PBOC
NH
first first quarterly monetary policy report
NH
stabilizing prices and managing inflation expectations are critical” suggesting that more tightening is possible.
Antofagasta Plc (ANTO:LSE): Last: 1,240, down 92 (-6.91%), High: 1,275, Low: 1,232, Volume: 2.16m
Fresnillo PLC (FRES:LSE): Last: 1,544, down 54 (-3.38%), High: 1,581, Low: 1,531, Volume: 272.00k
NH
Fags are ex a dividend and a special divi
NH
well the silver price has been hammered
NH
touched a high of 49.51 last week, fell to a low of 41.08 today
NH
which has burnt a few fingers
NH
looks to be a three days of losses now for silver
NH
Silver for July delivery in New York slumped as much as 5
percent to $40.465 per ounce, after losing 7.6 percent
yesterday and 5.2 percent on May 2. The metal was at $41.13 at
11:08 a.m. in Singapore, taking losses over the three days to
15 percent. Immediate-delivery gold fell 0.2 percent to
$1,532.78 an ounce, also lower for a third session.
CME Group Ltd., Comex’s owner, said this week that the
minimum amount of cash that must be deposited when borrowing
from brokers to trade silver futures will rise to $16,200 per
contract at the close of business yesterday from $14,513. A
year ago, the margin was $4,250.
NH
Soros Fund Management, the $28 billion hedge fund run by
Keith Anderson, has sold much of its gold and silver holdings,
the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing unidentified
people. Many of the sales took place over the past month as
there was a reduced risk of deflation, according to the report.
BE
And this is the CME’s third margin hike in just over a week. right?
NH
and Soros selling apparently
NH
“A reversal of 20 percent or more, returning the metal to
levels in the mid-$30s, would not surprise us at all,” Edel
Tully, a London-based analyst at UBS AG, wrote in a report.
“Only then would we be opportunistic buyers.”
NH
have we seen a copy of that report
NH
that could cause some pain
NH
for all the muppets who piles in to the silver ETFs last week
BE
Just seeing if I have the UBS report.
BE
Here’s a very brief sum from the morning pack.
BE
Precious metal forecasts up UBS has revised its precious metal forecasts. Significant increases have been made to silver price forecasts for 2011-
2014, while more moderate decreases have been made to gold and platinum in 2011 and no changes in 2012. Our Precious Metals Strategist, Edel
Tully, expects gold prices to decrease moderately in 2011 but remain strong over the next 3 years due to geopolitical risks, unrest in the middle east
and inflation concerns.
Base metal forecasts up We have also adjusted our models to reflect UBS’ updated base metal prices, where relevant. For more information on UBS’
precious and base metal updates, please see Julien Garran’s “UBS Global I/O: Commodity Price Review” dated April 11th.
Valuation update We are now using a flat $1500/oz gold price (down from $1550/oz) and flat $39.50/oz silver price (up from $33/oz) to value gold and
silver companies respectively (UBS’ 2011 explicit price forecasts). Based on the implied returns to target, we do not have any ratings changes.
BE
Hang on – sorry – that looks old.
NH
the worst email system in the world ever
BE
Nuts. Hoody’s Nuts. Let’s move on and hope we can return to the theme later, when the email starts working again.
NH
let’s have a look at the big story of the day
NH
and the pricing of the IPO
NH
seems to be a little disappointing
NH
Glencore priced its initial public offering on Wednesday at a level that will give the commodities trading house a current valuation of between $48bn and $58bn, less than the average forecast of $62bn provided by the banks underwriting its flotation.
Following the issue of $7.9bn of new shares in the IPO the enlarged company will have a market capitalisation of $61bn at the mid-point of the flotation range.
BE
Or “priced to move” – you can view it both ways.
NH
that’s the Glencore view
NH
they want a good first day pop
NH
so have priced conservatively
NH
The lower-than-expected pricing comes in spite of strong demand from cornerstone investors, who are set to take about a third of the IPO, which is raising a total of $11bn from the sale of new and existing shares. The move is aimed at generating a share price rally for the company after its flotation.
“Ivan Glasenberg [Glencore chief executive] is determined to price a deal that has a great after-IPO performance,” said a person familiar with the IPO process.
NH
a great after after market performance
BE
Flippers! Stags! Form an orderly queue.
BE
As we’ve said often, the tracker demand for this should be enough to support the IPO
BE
Almost at any price, quite frankly.
BE
In that context, I’m not sure why it’s been lowballed.
NH
just getting a good rumour through on ARM
BE
Should we cut to that then?
BE
For a number of excuses I’d heard.
ARM Holdings PLC (ARM:LSE): Last: 578.00, down 24 (-3.99%), High: 586.50, Low: 569.50, Volume: 3.08m
BE
So …. what’s the rumour?
NH
shall we finish with Glencore
NH
as the BBC kept referring to the company this morning
NH
on Radio 4 the flagship prog
NH
the presenter kept calling the biggest ipo of recent year
BE
Really? I can’t see the rabble being as excited about Glencore as we clearly are.
BE
So what more to say? Lowballed price.
BE
Daily Mail going tinfoilhat.
NH
I have some comment from Fairfax
NH
We see Glencore raising its full $10m plus the over allotment greenshoe. The shares should be priced to go and the market is likely to lift on the back of a successful issue. Glencore is in the middle of a near perfect storm regarding commodity prices and trading conditions although there is much room for trading volumes to increase further. Glasenberg has built an astonishing trading business which should gain much from its transition from secretive Swiss trader into a new listed and rather more open public company. We believe investors have much to gain but should remember that trading and mining companies remain volatile according to the state of global demand.
NH
Current trading: Glencore has published a current trading account today highlighting performance and prospects in the following divisions.
Marketting: a strong start to the year is reported with the Oil division showing substantially improved results due to increased arbitrage opportunities, more in line with 2009 performance. Higher oil prices should increase margins and the predictability and stability of oil at these levels may help the business.
Industrial: again substantially improved results on the back of a strong commodity price environment. We are seeing demand and prices pick up this year in ferro-alloys and other industrial commodities and it sounds like this is feeding into better business for Glencore traders who are dominant in many of these specialist areas.
Overall outlook: “The directors remain confident that economic activity and commodity demand remain robust and that Glencore remains well positioned for the remainder of 2011.
NH
wants to price this to go
NH
is it wants a rising price
NH
so that by the year end
NH
the float needs to go well
NH
so they have a strong currency
NH
to approach Mick the Miner Davies
BE
Hm. It’s a popular theory on the sellside, that.
Xstrata PLC (XTA:LSE): Last: 1,486, up 0.5 (+0.03%), High: 1,489, Low: 1,460, Volume: 2.96m
BE
Float Glencoe, buy Xstrata, bid for Anglo.
NH
in an honour of the Beeb and
NH
Early in the morning of 13 February 1692, in the aftermath of the Glorious Revolution and the Jacobite uprising of 1689 led by John Graham of Claverhouse, an infamous massacre took place in Glen Coe, in the Highlands of Scotland. This incident is referred to as the Massacre of Glencoe, or in Scottish Gaelic, ‘Mort Ghlinne Comhann’ (murder of Glen Coe). The massacre began simultaneously in three settlements along the glen—Invercoe, Inverrigan, and Achnacon—although the killing took place all over the glen as fleeing MacDonalds were pursued. Thirty-eight MacDonalds from the Clan MacDonald of Glencoe were killed by the guests who had accepted their hospitality, on the grounds that the MacDonalds had not been prompt in pledging allegiance to the new monarchs, William and Mary. Another forty women and children died of exposure after their homes were burned.
NH
you must remember that from school Bryce
BE
Of course. And from working for a time for the Scottish Tourist Board, believe it or not.
BE
Nice part of the world.
BE
The narrow glen shows a grim grandeur
NH
what did you for the STB?
BE
If only the same were true of Glenco.
NH
working on the till in the gift shop?
BE
Press flak, speech writer, minder to the board, photocopier jockey and general office dogsbody.
BE
It was an interesting insight into quangos.
BE
Yeah – I left the glamour of monthly trips to the Inverness Tourist Board with a Powerpoint presentation that would bore a glass eye to tears.
BE
Anyway, I feel we’re wandering from the subject at hand.
NH
let’s have a look at ARM
ARM Holdings PLC (ARM:LSE): Last: 578.00, down 24 (-3.99%), High: 586.50, Low: 569.50, Volume: 3.28m
NH
reason is a story that intel wants to make chips for Apple
NH
which I though it already did
NH
Piper Jaffray talking about Apple using Intel for iPad3 last night
BE
I can put a little colour to this one.
NH
here’s something just pinged over to me on the subject
NH
ARM is weak today…on reports that Intel is interested in making chips for Apple. Apple currently uses a number of chips (Infineon HSDPA modem, PA semi application processor etc…) which are all based on the ARM architecture. if Intel did managed to present to the market a chip based on its X86 architecutre that was as energy efficient as the ARM based productgs that this would be a problem for ARM.
At this stage Intel has always failed to come out for a decent product. Its technology is far too power hungry. Did you notice that PCs needed fans because the intel chip heats up….If they were to suceed that would be a game changer.
Our view is that ARM is over priced on 48x 2012 PE. And we beleive investors over estimate the ASPs of the chips in some of the new products (smart phones, tablets etc…) that are coming out. As Archos (roadshow we did a few weeks ago) CEO explained the tablet market will be driven by low end products at less than 300Euros….not by the Ipad and high end competitors at prices of Eu 500-600.
BE
The story seems to have surfaced in EE Times.
NH
not familiar with that publication
BE
Though you can see how the Chinese whispers progress with this story.
BE
From the link above, to this
BE
SAN JOSE, Calif. – At present, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. is making the Apple-designed A4 and A5 processors on a foundry basis for Apple Inc.
That could soon change. As reported, Apple and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) have entered into a foundry relationship for the A5 and follow-on chips, sources said.
NH
and most of the people I have talked to
NH
aren’t buying this story
NH
99.99% unlikely this will be x86 from Intel, if really true (and I doubt it), that would be Intel as a foundry service and therefore Intel would have to take an ARM licence and that would be capitulation from them
NH
many many times before
NH
when the market is weak
NH
it’s dead easy to knock ARM
NH
high beta and all that
BE
(anthrax: why are you linking to a story that links to a story that cites a story we just cited?)
BE
(Is this Seven Degrees of Kevin Bacon except with chipmakers?)
BE
Yeah – and there are several other reasons to knock Arm today.
NH
Apple have some big announcement later today
NH
Some conjecture that this may be Intel winning business to manufacture the A5 chip that goes into the iPad
NH
that was the rumour mentioned over on the right
NH
what else have you heard
BE
Well, it’s the Intel announcement that the wires have plumped for.
BE
As in, Intel’s going to announce later today that it’s going 22nm.
BE
Which is true, probably.
BE
Though a terrible reason to sell Arm.
BE
Any investor who says, “Oh no! Moore’s Law! Must sell Arm” needs their head resewn.
NH
(Thanks Anthrax – good link)
BE
Anyway, here’s the detail on what Intel’s going to say.
BE
We expect Intel to announce (4-May) that its 22nm mfg process, which ramps into
production in 4Q11, will utilize a new transistor type. In the past, Intel has
described its tri-gate or 3D structure that provides more surface area for current to
flow, with the result of lower power consumption than conventional transistors. By
overcoming the problems associated with scaling transistors to smaller geometries,
Intel continues to enable Moore’s law (2x transistors every 2 years). In fact, with
the progression to the 14nm node, Intel accelerates Moore’s law scaling to 2.5x.
BE
We expect that not only will Intel emphasize the benefits of scaling transistors but
also a narrower product introduction gap between processors for PCs and
smartphones/tablets. We expect Atom system-on-chip devices at 22nm in mid-
2012 (~6 months after PC processors) and at 14nm in 1H14 (3-6 months after PC
processors). Faster time to market of Atom processors in more advanced process
technologies should help to increase Intel’s competitiveness in mobile devices.
BE
We expect Intel to discuss mainly the results and benefits of the new 22nm
transistors but provide limited detail as to the recipe and tooling necessary to build
these devices. We believe 22/14nm will continue to use immersion lithography on
300mm wafers, with transitions to EUV lithography and 450mm wafers further out
in time. We also expect Intel to review the concept behind its new Oregon-based
development megafab, which should help to further steepen its production ramp.
NH
in fact the only real negative I can find on ARM today is that AMD will continue to use x86 architecture for tablets and not shift to ARM. but even that is a small negativei
BE
(For the non-techies out there, Moore’s Law is basically the rule of thumb that number of angels Intel can fit on the head of a pin doubles approximately every two years.)
BE
One last thing on Arm.
BE
You saw there was more director share sales, right?
BE
80x-ish times earnings, factoring in stock options.
BE
Ian Drew, EVP of Marketing, sold 50k shares on April 28 at 618.63p per share. On the same date, Antonio Viana, EVP – Worldwide Sales, sold 16,500 shares.
NH
for the Porsche garage in Cambridge
BE
And lastly, I note the RIM guidance and a bunch of rather drab statements from PCB makers over the past few days.
BE
And some quite disappointing SIA data.
BE
All of which may suggest that the handset market, which has always been cyclical, probably remains cyclical.
NH
ouch, ouch, ouch, the sell off is accelerating
NH
FTSE 100 now off 62 points at 6,020
NH
from the perma bear has landed
BE
Many things may fail him, but it’s rarely his words.
BE
Go on. Give us a taster.
NH
Post-bubble volatility will continue to surprise. This patch of stronger-than-expected economic
data will inevitably subside with the demise of QE2. This is how it was in Japan after their bubble
burst. Our most preferred leading indicators are already suggesting the turn is here.
NH
Dylans latest weekly extolled the virtues of holding cash when expected returns on
equities look as poor as they do now – link. This sort of language is an anathema to most of
the buy side. Indeed it almost has no meaning in the investment world we now live in. Now
I have hit 50, I increasingly understand my language of bearishness is simply not recognised
by the younger fund managers I meet who look on me as if I have landed from Mars.
NH
Yet I remain bearish of equities and, for the present, bullish of government bonds,
despite the latter being poor long-term value. I still use the tried and trusted tools I have
always relied on. Hence it is worth noting that despite yet another sham reporting round, in
which analysts have once again allowed themselves to be manipulated by reporting
companies, our preferred measure of yoy change in analyst optimism has begun to fall away
sharply, just as it did during last years surprise pocket of weak growth (see chart below).
NH
he’s on fine form this week
NH
by the resilience of the market
NH
sham reporting


BE
(@JP: yes, surprised more people haven’t made that connection.)
NH
Something positive I think
NH
finally some good news from the retail sector
NH
an excellent trading update
NH
and upgraded guidance from Next
Next PLC (NXT:LSE): Last: 2,317, up 95 (+4.28%), High: 2,330, Low: 2,286, Volume: 1.82m
NH
which unlike Thorntons
NH
has been boosted by the fine spring weather
NH
and also the Royal Wedding
NH
not sure I quite understand why
NH
were people dressing up for it in the lower middle classes?
NH
We estimate that at least 2.5% of the over-performance came as a result of exceptionally warm weather over Easter and spending in anticipation of the Royal Wedding Bank Holiday. We believe these factors have encouraged consumers to bring forward summer purchases and we do not expect the current levels of growth to continue into the second quarter. We now expect total Next Brand sales for the first half to be in the range +1.5% to +4%.
NH
I guess the weather is the big factor here
NH
whether the sales have just been pulled forward
NH
Next is sounding more confidence though
NH
We estimate that total Next Brand sales for the full year will be in the range of +1% to +4%. This would give a profit before tax range of £535m to £585m. This range is around £15m ahead of the scenario we gave in March, and is somewhat ahead of market expectations.
We continue to expect to buy back in the region of £160m of shares from surplus cash flows in the current year, of which we have already spent £90m buying 4.3m shares. We estimate the combined effects of share buybacks and cash generation will be to move EPS forward by 6% more than the growth in profit.
BE
Yes – it is a bit of a mixed message.
BE
Wolfson says sales have been pulled forward and the strength’s unlikely to be sustained.
BE
But guidance raised nevertheless.
NH
and he’s very good at lowballing stuff
NH
still Next is a class act
NH
the best in the UK retail sector
NH
and that Directory sales is very impressive
NH
it seems that “order by 9pm for next day delivery” marketing campaign
BE
Impressively managed business, as we say every time they have an update.
NH
and yet it’s valued on a lower multiple than M&S
NH
and it’s always shorted
NH
I’d much rather be short of M&S
NH
particularly with that marketer at the top now
NH
there’s all sorts of rumours doing the rounds
NH
about unhappiness in the M&S boardroom
NH
some personality clashes
Marks And Spencer Group PLC (MKS:LSE): Last: 395.40, up 11 (+2.86%), High: 400.30, Low: 386.30, Volume: 8.91m
BE
I think there have been a few hints in the paper recently that something’s up.
BE
Meanwhile, back to Next. What’s happening to forecasts?
NH
here’s Nick Bubb of Arden
NH
Next (Add): Today’s Q1 update from Next is surprisingly good, with total sales up by 5.2%, well ahead of the H1 guidance range of -0.5% to + 2.5%. Somewhat controversially, Next have not given a precise Retail LFL figure within this total, but there is no doubt that the growth is driven by the impressive near 15% sales increase in the key Online/Directory operation and Next admit that this was driven by the unusually helpful weather in April (as well as the “order by 9pm for next day delivery” marketing campaign).
NH
Next concede that some business has been brought forward from May etc, but have still upped their full year sales forecast slightly and upped their full year PBT range by c£15m (to £535m to £585m). Our forecast of £566m looks underpinned and on a P/E of around 9.5x at 2222p the shares look good value, so we stick to our Add on Next and 2350p target. The read-across from Next for M&S (Buy) is helpful, particularly given the strong trading vibes from Waitrose on recent Food sales.
NH
— Despite the flattery of recent weather patterns and bank
holiday sales, Next’s statement today argues firstly that the worst is behind it from a
demand and gross margin perspective, and secondly that underlying brand LFL sales
patterns this year are expected to be flat (at the mid-point of its guidance range), a
much better outlook than the -2% to -3% view at the start of this year. Both these
themes continue to drive our enthusiasm for Next shares, and are consistent with the
analysis behind our recent UK General Retail sector upgrade to Overweight.
NH
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED Q1 SALES; £15MN PROFIT UPGRADE
Next has reported strong sales for Q1 of +5.2% yoy, well ahead of its previous H1
guidance of -0.5% to +2.5%. Next estimates that at least 2.5pp of its
outperformance came as a result of exceptionally warm weather over Easter and
consumers bringing forward purchases in anticipation of the Royal Wedding bank
holiday. Next’s LFL sales for Q1 of c.-1.2% beat our -2% estimate and Directory
was also very strong at +15% vs our +7% estimate. Next has increased its H1
sales guidance to +1-4% and its PBT range by £15mn from £535-585mn vs
£563mn estimate. Together with higher than expected share buyback activity at
the start of the year (£90mn ytd), we see scope for c.3-5% upgrades to
consensus EPS forecasts, but we think the strong recent run in the share price
already reflects much of this, plus an improved macro backdrop, with a lower
cotton price, weaker dollar and more benign UK interest rate outlook.
NH
(@Phil can you name and shame the company the advisor worked for?)
NH
has provided a much needed shot in the ARM
NH
to the rest of the sector
Wm Morrison Supermarkets PLC (MRW:LSE): Last: 302.20, up 4.3 (+1.44%), High: 303.00, Low: 293.72, Volume: 4.49m
Kingfisher PLC (KGF:LSE): Last: 272.60, up 2.1 (+0.78%), High: 277.30, Low: 270.50, Volume: 4.34m
Home Retail Group plc (HOME:LSE): Last: 222.00, up 4.8 (+2.21%), High: 227.80, Low: 221.50, Volume: 2.56m
NH
there’s also a bit of RAW going round in Sainsbury
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY:LSE): Last: 348.50, down 1.5 (-0.43%), High: 350.70, Low: 348.20, Volume: 1.97m
NH
apparently they will announce a big property revaluation
NH
with an update that’s coming soon
NH
not sure when they last did this
NH
and post crunch whether anyone would care
NH
it’s not as Robbie Tchenguiz still roams the City
NH
with his securitisation plans
BE
I agree. Unless there are disposals planned, it doesn’t really matter surely.
BE
Though, on that note …..
NH
perhaps it might interest the QIA
NH
and we will get the bid rumours again
BE
As a counterpoint, can I drag out an old note from Matthew Truman at JP Morgan?
NH
(@Anthrax – yellow for lowering the tone)
BE
This is from a week or two ago.
BE
We believe Sainsbury’s adjusted net debt position is materially (>20%)
worse than both the market and the rating agencies currently believe.
BE
Maintaining the status quo “growth story” (£435m) and returning to
sector standard debt ratios (£1.6bn) would indicate a funding
requirement of £2.0bn for the next 3 years. Adding an “average”
International acquisition would increase this requirement to £3.0bn.
BE
Financing the “growing pains” would dilute shareholders further.
BE
Without available debt financing at sensible terms, step one would be to
cut the dividend in our view. Cutting the dividend to an average of
Morrison and Tesco would save £213m over 3-4 years. We cut our
dividend cover further to 2.3x from 2x (cons. 1.6x).
BE
Assuming the dividend were to be cut to appropriate levels, funding the
remaining gap of £1,825m (status quo) and £2,813m (status quo plus Intl)
could be financed by either property disposals or an equity raise. The
value dilution via an equity raise (19.3%) appears less favourable than the
dilution in value created by selling further property (7.1%) although
investors should note the structural disadvantages of selling prop co.
Given the shares are back to the level of the prior funding round, it appears
the market is not accepting growth at the expense of returns and cashflow.
Reflecting a potential funding event and earnings cuts, we lower our DCF
Mar-12 TP to 301p, which offers 11% downside at current levels and
would bring Sbry’s PE in line with sector peers at 11.1x for Mar-“2012E”
NH
that’s is very interesting
NH
Sainsbury can’t pay their dividend from cash flow
NH
perhaps they are doing this property revaluation
NH
because they need to sell a few
NH
the balance sheet is weak here
NH
Tesco should launch a massive price war
NH
and put pay to Sainsbury’s expansion plan
NH
might that not be the best way to preserver the divi
NH
stop building stores that nobody needs
BE
What was the name of that tobacco price war?
BE
When I think it was Philip Morris dropped prices
BE
Sent the industry into a brief tailspin
BE
But, as the strongest to survive, emerged with considerably reduced competition?
BE
The name escapes me. Something Day. ROTR? Gold star if you remember.
BE
Anyway, Tesco could pull the same thing here.
NH
right done with shopping?
BE
(TFT1: yellow for deviation.)
NH
Right, looks like I will need Wednesday off work
NH
looks what’s finally come through
NH
Booked for 1pm, Wednesday, 11th May at Koffmannn’s, The Berkeley, Wilton Place, Knightsbridge SW1X 7RL
I have your voucher which you can pick up from me anytime. It entitles you to a 3 course lunch with wines chosen by their sommelier.
BE
That was the Lunch with the FT thing, right?
BE
Remind us how much your company’s worth?
NH
finally meeting the mystery bidder
NH
it might have been lower
NH
anyway the main point is the wine
NH
chosen by their sommelier
BE
Is the sommelier still Robert Giorgione? Anyone know?
NH
Captain Mannering he won’t
NH
(@Soundbuy that’s still on my desk)
BE
Gold stat to Andrew Slade, the FT.Com news editor
BE
Who’s just emailed me with the words “Marlbro Monday.”
NH
they might be good on chips
NH
someone was asking about Imagination Technologies earlier
Imagination Technologies Group PLC (IMG:LSE): Last: 470.20, down 27.9 (-5.60%), High: 499.50, Low: 470.00, Volume: 289.22k
BE
Yes. On the subject of chips.
NH
is there a downgrade around?
BE
Post the CFO departing.
BE
Though it’s largely a valuation call.
BE
And you have to note that, while it gets less attention, Imagination’s just as expensive as Arm.
BE
Since February, Imagination’s shares have outperformed those of Apple,
its largest customer, by 50%. Following this strong run for the stock, we
are following the CFO’s lead and cutting our recommendation to Neutral.
BE
Imagination’s announcement that CFO Trevor Selby (53) will step down from the
role at the end of June is a surprise. Mr Selby will stay with the group to the end
of the year, to ensure a smooth handover to the incoming CFO, who joins from a
private company and is not known to the City.
BE
Mr Selby will be ‘pursuing personal interests’ and has more than £2m of shares
and options yet to cash in. We doubt that the management change will have a
major impact on the way Imagination is run or the presentation of its accounts,
but following a strong run for the shares, we think that traders may use Mr
Selby’s departure as an excuse to bank some profits ahead of the summer
months.
BE
Apple’s shares have gone nowhere since February, yet Imagination’s shares are
up more than 50% in the same period. The levelling-off of Apple’s stock is
partially attributable to strengthening competition from Google’s Android
operating system. Android handsets now outsell iPhones by some margin, and
only a few of them use Imagination graphics. Apple’s shares trade on a FY12
EV/NOPLAT of 9x; Imagination’s EV/NOPLAT for the same period is 35x.
BE
A premium is justified because Imagination is less vulnerable to margin pressure
than Apple and has growth avenues outside Apple’s iPhone and iPad products.
Mediatek, for example, could shift hundreds of millions of low-cost Imagination
chips over the next few years. However, Imagination’s fortunes remain closelytied
to Apple’s, and we believe that the Apple’s mediocre share price performance
over the last few months could be the precursor to a period of quieter trading for
Imagination’ stock.
BE
That belief was bolstered by yesterday’s news of the CFO’s resignation – the
departure of long-standing managers from high-flying tech companies is often a
clear signal to take profits. We are taking our recommendation back to Neutral.
NH
not many features today
NH
even small cap corner is dull
JJB Sports PLC (JJB:LSE): Last: 21.25, down 3.5 (-14.14%), High: 23.50, Low: 20.00, Volume: 1.43m
NH
they raised that £60m, less costs, at 40p
NH
I reckon the whole company is trading at a discount to cash
NH
and I have no idea why
BE
Other than to agree that it’s odd, not really.
NH
perhaps that’s hit sales in some way
NH
people cooling off in doors
NH
just an odd performance
NH
because Blacks Leisure
NH
has managed to rally today
Blacks Leisure Group PLC (BSLA:LSE): Last: 14.00, up 0.125 (+0.90%), High: 15.70, Low: , Volume: 884.80k
NH
and for once they didn’t blame the weather for weak sales
NH
just austerity Britain
NH
still they have a new CEO
NH
The pre-tax losses (before exceptionals) in the year to end of February came in below market expectations at £6.6m vs. SP forecast of £5m of losses.
We are moving our recommendation to Hold (Buy since 21 December 2010).and downgrade our price target to 15p. 1) Current trade is reported to be below expectations. 2) The debt position appears to be worse than projected – net debt at end of February was £14.4m vs. £12.6m in the previous year despite a capital raising of £19.5m – so a fund raising over the next twelve months is a probability and 3) The appointment of Julia Reynolds as CEO as replacement to Neil Gillis will lead to uncertainty over strategy in the short-term. We are increasing our pre-tax loss forecasts for FY12 from £1m to £3m and now do not expect the company to break even until FY14. We still maintain that Blacks Leisure is an attractive brand as shown by the bid interest in the company at the beginning of the year and the restructuring, in particular the CVA will eventually lead to profitability.
NH
(If so – the answer is no)
BE
(And Nostra Terra? Lordy.)
BE
(Not a widow or an orphan are you, BLB?)
NH
Right a couple of things to end on
Capita Group PLC (CPI:LSE): Last: 714.50, down 17 (-2.32%), High: 724.50, Low: 700.73, Volume: 1.51m
Serco Group PLC (SRP:LSE): Last: 552.50, down 11 (-1.95%), High: 564.00, Low: 543.50, Volume: 1.57m
NH
Matthew Earl at Matrix
NH
the man who called the blow up at Connaught
NH
has been out repeating his bearish call
NH
in the wake of recent news
NH
May – WSP Group IMS suggesting that while making steady progress in the private and regulated sectors, the public sector, particularly transportation, remains challenging. This has led to additional restructuring action during the first half of the year.
4 May – Logica Q1 update indicating that UK revenue was down 4% YOY, with public sector revenue falling 9% YOY. While the group sees good medium term opportunities in the public sector, the current environment is of slow decision making.
NH
4 May – McAlpine (Private) also reported in this morning’s FT suggesting that due to the government spending cuts, many construction companies in the sector are bidding at low margins or sometimes on loss making terms simply to bring in the cash and utilise workforces.
4 May – BBC story suggesting that “plans to outsource public services scaled back.” Leaked documents relate to a meeting between Cabinet Office Minister, Francis Maude, and the director general of the CBI, John Cridland. The note from the meeting says – “The minister’s messages were clear cut… the government is committed to transforming services, but this would not be a return to the 1990s with wholesale outsourcing to the private sector – this would be unpalatable to the present administration.
“The government was not prepared to run the political risk of fully transferring services to the private sector with the result that they could be accused of being naive or allowing excess profit making by private sector firms.” See – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13273932″>http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13273932
NH
and here is Mr Earl’s thesis
BE
Sorry – Neil’s on the phone.
BE
So, while we wait for Mr Earl’s thesis
BE
We should also highlight this BBC story
BE
A leak from Francis Maude
BE
Saying the government will cut down on its use of outsourcers
BE
“The minister’s messages were clear
cut… the government is committed to transforming services, but this
would not be a return to the 1990s with wholesale outsourcing to the
private sector – this would be unpalatable to the present administration.
…..The government was not prepared to run the political risk of fully
transferring services to the private sector with the result that they could
be accused of being naive or allowing excess profit making by private
sector firms.”
BE
More mutualised public quangos.
BE
Here’s Robert Plant — not that one — at JP Morgan with some reaction.
NH
(Bin Laden – scroll back up discussed)
BE
If this account is true is would be a negative for the public sector
outsourcing stocks as it could mean that the extent of public sector
outsourcing to the private sector could be diminished. The change in
tone may explain why the White Paper has been delayed to the summer
compared to the original proposal to publish it in April. The stocks we
cover with the most exposure to the UK public sector are Babcock
c.75% revenue exposure to the UK public sector, Capita c.50% and
Serco c.54%. We are Overweight on the sub sector.
BE
However, there may be an element of politicking with the White
Paper. It could be that ministers want to show that they are committed to
using non-profit bodies more, but in reality we do not think the nonprofit
sector has the capacity to cope with the outsourcing that the
Government probably wants in order to deliver the cost savings it needs
to meet its deficit reduction targets. It could be that private sector
companies still play an important role but are encouraged to team up
with non-profit companies as recently occurred with the Work
Programme contracts.
NH
and here’s the Earl thesis
NH
Despite budget pressures in the private sector over the past three years, private sector-facing outsourcers have seen minimal organic growth. We expect conditions in the public sector to be similar as the government seeks to reduce the deficit.
· While companies indicate that they expect demand for services to strengthen by H2 2011 (some have recently pushed this into early 2012), we believe that prospects will remain weak for considerably longer.
· To achieve the rate of revenue growth the market expects, public-sector outsourcing rates need to climb from 33% in 2009-10 to more than 43% by 2014-15. Even under a Conservative-led coalition, we think this unlikely.
· Margin pressure will be a key theme medium term. In the short term, cost cutting may help offset this, but, with the government intent on fostering greater competition among its suppliers, lower pricing terms are likely to emerge.
· In-house teams are well aware of budgetary constraints and are becoming more competitive in tendering for contracts which presents the government with a politically more acceptable solution.
· Our 2012 EPS forecasts are 5% below consensus for both Capita and Serco. We believe that overall, volumes and margins will both fail to meet current consensus expectations. With few exceptions the sector trades at multiples which fail to reflect this.
NH
(@Nick – Izy has done a post)
NH
Swedes I did see the interview
NH
Strand Hanson’s Simon Raggett in the DT
NH
he’s most recent float
NH
Madagascar Oil announces that, further to the declaration of force majeure announced on 21 March 2011, arbitration proceedings were commenced on 29 April 2011, in accordance with the terms of the Production Sharing Contracts (“PSCs”) for Blocks 3104, 3105, 3106 and 3107 (the “Blocks”) that it operates in Madagascar. The arbitration filings claim breach of contract by the Government of Madagascar and OMNIS, the regulatory agency of the government that manages the country’s oil and gas resources. The arbitration claims were formally submitted to the International Chamber of Commerce (“ICC”) in accordance with the requirements of the PSCs. The Company’s filing seeks declaration that the PSCs are valid and that OMNIS be instructed to proceed with the approval process of the Company’s work programmes and related extensions as contemplated under the PSCs.
NH
and a couple of weeks later lost its licenses
NH
the company is squaring up for a fight with the govt
NH
although the govt doesn’t want to know
NH
“We are committed to negotiating a resolution with the Government of Madagascar and remain optimistic this can be achieved. Today’s announcement is simply a mechanism for us to protect our shareholders’ interests in the event that we are unsuccessful in a negotiated settlement. This first step in the process of arbitration proceedings does not in any way preclude the possibility of an early resolution between the parties, which we firmly believe is within the best interests of all involved, not least because of the impact the alternative may have on potential future foreign investment into the country.
NH
a bit of RAW to end on
NH
that’s the Nat Rothschild thing
NH
apparently something going on
NH
big trading volume in the things it’s buying in Indonesia
NH
and also in Germany where it’s traded
BE
(@Tony T, Vintage: the 500 euro note is, of course, nicknamed the Bin Laden.)
BE
Right – should we round up on this now?
BE
Thank the ROTR for their contributions and bid them good afternoon?