Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:28 on 3 May 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT bryce.elder
NH
and welcome to Markets Live
NH
I hope you are all feeling refreshed
NH
after the long weekend
NH
and enjoyed the wedding
NH
although the Lex comment on the Royal Wedding
NH
has drawn quite a response on the letters page
NH
When the last of the bunting is taken down, the marriage of William Wales and Catherine Middleton may be remembered not so much as a magical fairytale, but as a hard-edged business case study.
Think of the bride’s mother, Carole, as the chief executive of Middleton Inc. Her first smart decision was to marry up. Partnering with Michael, a scion of very minor gentry, gave this descendant of labourers, messengers and clerks some cash to start a business, and a drop of blue blood. Heavy expenditure on Marlborough College fees and a flat in Chelsea could then be capitalised in the asset values of the three children, and of Kate in particular.
Not only did Middleton mère dispatch her eldest to the same university as the young Prince, she even sent her to Chile beforehand, months after William, to give them something to talk about. After graduation she kept Kate in expensive outfits and – with the help of siblings Pippa and James, events caterer and upscale cake-maker, respectively – in the right sort of circles. There were a few PR stumbles along the way (hello, rogue uncle Gary) but the “waity Katie” campaign was otherwise superbly handled.
NH
capitalised in the asset values of the three children
NH
not a phrase you hear often
NH
Even if – heaven forbid – the marriage were to founder, the Duchess of Cambridge and her entourage should be welcomed into the international party set so beloved of William’s late mother. This is a union of souls made possible by textbook planning: spotting an opening, then pursuing it with resourcefulness and determination. It belongs in the McKinsey Quarterly as much as in Debrett’s.
BE
Hm. I THINK that’s dry humour.
BE
So droll it’s barely perceptible, at times.
BE
And the reader response was …..
NH
From Mr P.B. Dravers.
Sir, Your Lex column item on the royal wedding contains the sort of catty comment that one might imagine in the country-house drawing rooms of ladies whose daughters were disappointed in their own pursuit of the prince. But what was such comment doing in the FT … and least of all in Lex?
Whoever wrote this piece, and whichever editors approved it, have lost sight of the purpose of both paper and column, and have completely misjudged the public view of this event. The quality of the Financial Times, and of its journalists, is in sad decline. Worst of all, this was an appalling display of manners.
P.B. Dravers,
NH
plenty more disgusted of Tonbridge Wells have written in
NH
equities aren’t doing much
NH
after the demise of you know who
NH
taken a real battering this morning
NH
and a Euro things buy 0.89p
BE
This is on the soft PMI, I assume.
NH
(are the Rabble still on holiday? the wedding’s over get back to work)
NH
with the index coming in at 54.6, well shy of the consensus for a reading of 57.0
NH
cue big sterling sell off
NH
I will just get hold of the Archer comment
NH
Disappointing. The markedly softer purchasing managers’ survey for April raises concern that the the hitherto buoyant manufacturing sector is now faltering. This was also hinted at by the April CBI industrial trends survey. As such, the survey reinforces worries over the economy’s ability to withstand the fiscal tightening that increasingly kicked in from early April and reinforces belief that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50% on Thursday. Indeed, we believe it is looking ever more likely that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates before November
NH
Specifically, the purchasing managers’ index fell back to a seventh-month low of 54.6 in April from a downwardly revised 56.7 in March and a record high of 61.2 in January. Particularly worryingly new orders growth fell back markedly to an eight-month low and was only modest. This was primarily due to softer domestic demand, which reinforces concern about the underlying strength of the economy – particularly consumer spending.
On a brighter note, export orders were robust and actually picked up in April.
NH
However, the survey seriously raises concern that manufacturers will find life increasingly challenging over the coming months as stock rebuilding wanes and tighter fiscal policy weighs down on domestic demand. And while global economic activity currently looks decent, there is the risk that it could be hit by extended high oil prices. And high oil prices and surging input costs are a serious problem for UK manufacturers by substantially squeezing their margins and putting pressure on them to raise prices and risk losing business.
There is also the ongoing risk that sovereign debt problems in the Eurozone could escalate and dampen orders from key UK overseas markets. Meanwhile, problems in Japan could also hurt manufacturing activity through causing supply chain disruptions. This is particularly a potential problem for the auto and consumer electronics sectors. And significantly, the survey reported that there was “a sharp lengthening in supplier delivery times as a consequence of the knock-on effect” from events in Japan.
NH
not especially good news
BE
Nope – and here’s Stuart Green at HSBC to make you all a bit more depressed
BE
Tide looks to be turning
BE
The April UK manufacturing PMI proved much weaker than expected on release this morning, falling by more than
two points on the month and in the process adding to the growing uncertainties around the UK growth outlook. If
relying upon the manufacturing sector – which accounts for just 13% of GDP and 8% of overall employment – to drive
the UK recovery had always seemed a little unrealistic, the run of softer readings from the sector now makes this
prospect seem even less plausible.
BE
At 54.6, the headline PMI reading is still consistent with a healthy level of expansion, but the sharp decline seen in the more
forward-looking indicators of the survey is concerning and suggests that factory output will lose further momentum in the
coming months. Some slowdown from the very strong levels of expansion registered around the turn of the year was of
course to be expected, but the weakness now being seen within the PMI and of course the official output data for February is
disappointing given that the level of manufacturing production is still some 9% below the pre-recession peak. Indeed, a closer
look at the manufacturing figures show that only two components (engineering and metal production), which together account
for around 40% of overall sector output and therefore just 5% of GDP, have shown any real sustained improvement over the
past year.
BE
Growth, therefore, has been fairly narrowly focused and the strong correlation that exists between output in these two areas
and certain elements of the manufacturing PMI survey is of concern. Certainly, the balance between the new orders and stocks
of finished goods components of the PMI is now pointing to a much less buoyant profile of output growth, and manufacturing
output will do well to make the sort of positive contribution to growth in the current quarter that has become something of a
feature of recent GDP reports.
NH
well, the feel good factor didn’t last very long did it?
NH
the Chancellor says the recovery is still on the tracks
NH
and who are we to argue with that
NH
OK, a quick look at the FTSE 100
NH
which is doing not a lot
NH
down 3.4 points at 6,066
BE
Event that has nothing to do with the market has no effect on the market.
NH
it looks like we have another issue with the registration system
NH
comments are being backed up for moderation
NH
but big red X’s are coming up in the back end
BE
It took me ten or so attempts to log in.
BE
So – of you’re being spamfilterd in a cruel and unusual fashion, sorry.
NH
not too sure where to start
Itv PLC (ITV:LSE): Last: 74.15, down 1.9 (-2.50%), High: 76.00, Low: 74.10, Volume: 4.97m
BE
So advertising’s gone down the toilet again.
BE
As has been increasingly clear over the past quarter or so.
NH
one only had to look at the results from the retailers
BE
Yup. And Merrill’s fiddled with its forecasts to reflect the decline this morning.
BE
Following a stronger than expected start to the year, with Q1 ad growth of c12%,
ad trends appear to have deteriorated sharply into Q2. We now expect April ad
growth of 6% (vs 12% previously), -7% in May (vs -4%), -20% in June (vs -10%)
and -10% in July. Drinks (tough comps into last year’s World Cup), auto and retail
appear to be areas of weakness vs initial expectations, while we believe regional
advertising (c15% of revenues) has also been a drag on growth.
BE
Rugby World Cup unlikely to fully offset tough comps
While Sept/October may see some support from the Rugby World Cup this is
likely to be limited by the time zone and November and December face tough
comps and could also see negative growth.
BE
Oh good, another rugby world cup.
BE
Didn’t realise the cricket one was over yet.
NH
Scotland always qualify for
BE
True – that and curling.
BE
Cut FY ITV ad growth from 3.3% to 0.9%
Against this background we have cut our 2011 TV market growth from 3.2% to
1.4%, our ITV1 ad growth from 2.4% to -0.1% and ITV family growth from 3.3% to
0.9%. Our 2011 EBIT falls by 6.4% to £442m, and EPS by 8% to 7.2p. Our
advertising forecasts were already below consensus and we expect high double
digit earnings downgrades from those at the top end of the range.
BE
Upside increasingly contingent on turnaround strategy
Our PO falls from 83p to 76p to reflect downgrades and we maintain our neutral
rating. While the share price has already at least partially adjusted to reflect
slower ad growth and ITV does not appear expensive trading on c10.5x EPS in
2011, the share price is likely to be constrained by consensus downgrades in the
coming weeks and weak ad momentum over the summer months. Furthermore,
the slowdown is likely to shift focus back to longer term structural pressures with
upside increasingly contingent on management’s ability to deliver on its
turnaround strategy.
NH
that’s pretty bleak stuff
NH
very good for a newspaper
NH
depending on err advertising
BE
Oh, we’ve got the paywall.
BE
Which is working as well as usual this morning.
BE
Anyway, I think ITV’s in position to fall back out of the FTSE soon
NH
it will make way for Glencore
NH
which is being allowed to go in to the FTSE 100
NH
under some fast track rule on day one
NH
that the free float looks small
BE
JP Morgan reckons tracker funds need to pick up $1.5bn Glencore
NH
the actual figure will be higher
NH
once the quasi trackers are added in
BE
Part of an Xstrata note from last week. And, yes, that’s FTSE, MSCI and Stoxx 600 trackers only.
BE
Though, frankly, the pressure to hold some Glencore will be huge.
BE
It’s a gift to the flippers.
NH
by doomed to be demoted
NH
And heading in the other direction from ITV
Man Group PLC (EMG:LSE): Last: 257.60, up 7.9 (+3.16%), High: 261.90, Low: 256.00, Volume: 8.24m
NH
after raising $1.5bn for its Japanese fund
NH
not followed this story
NH
so I don’t know if that’s good news
BE
Though we have to note that Man’s come back a long way.
BE
Was >300p before Japan
BE
And before AHL had a lurch for the worse.
BE
And, as ever, we’re forced to consider if Man’s just a binary bet on AHL getting back above its high water mark.
BE
(Currently 10% below I think.)
BE
Anyway, in that context it seems the news is a sentiment positive but not really moving the dial for forecasts.
NH
right some breaking news
NH
RTRS-UK POLICE SAY 5 MEN ARRESTED UNDER TERRORISM ACT AT LOCATION CLOSE TO SELLAFIELD NUCLEAR SITE
NH
arresting someone under the Terror Act
NH
(@Outlaw – sorry If i have offended the good folk of Tunbridge)
BE
Arrested under section 41.
BE
Section 41 (detention without charge)
Section 41 of the Act provided the police with the power to arrest and detain a person without charge for up to 48 hours if they were suspected of being a terrorist.[9] This period of detention could be extended to up to seven days if the police can persuade a judge that it is necessary for further questioning.[10]
This was a break from ordinary criminal law where suspects had to be charged within 24 hours of detention or be released. This period was later extended to 14 days by the Criminal Justice Act 2003,[11] and to 28 days by the Terrorism Act 2006.
BE
It’s the “you look a bit shifty, sonny Jim. Off to the station” clause.
NH
(Lemmy – a day out at Sellafield)
BE
It’s nice around there.
NH
or people from Pursuit Dynamics
NH
haven’t they got a nuclear JV?
BE
Probably. They have an everything JV.
NH
another profit warning
NH
and this one is a real gift
NH
they are blaming the hot easter weather
BE
Because, when it’s hot, we all buy Easter ice creams instead.
BE
It’s a transferrable purchase.
Thorntons PLC (THT:LSE): Last: 71.50, down 8.75 (-10.90%), High: 75.40, Low: 71.39, Volume: 254.03k
BE
And not just another rubbish excuse from a serial warner.
NH
they have damaged the brand
NH
by focusing on the supermarket/wholesale range
NH
sell awful chocs into the likes of Tesco
NH
and ignoring their heritage on the high street
NH
the shops are now awful
BE
Despite two key trading periods, Christmas and Easter, being affected by unprecedented weather conditions …
BE
Slightly hot and slightly cold?
NH
people want easter eggs
NH
whether it’s hot or cold
BE
Particularly in whether that’s quite precedented.
NH
the divi is under pressure
NH
the company is not yet
NH
breaching banking covenents
NH
and the competition in this segment of the market now seems fierce
BE
In terms of market positioning, they’ve got it wrong.
BE
Not good enough to compete with the high end.
BE
Not cheap enough to compete with the supermarkets.
BE
They’re the middle ground brand. Not good enough for a gift, too expensive for personal consumption.
NH
another retailer that needs to close all its high street stores
NH
and do something online
NH
or with the supermarkets I’d guess
NH
we have comment on this
NH
Thorntons – has issued its Q3 trading update early on the back of a disappointing Easter.
Q3 Own Store LFL sales were down 12.6%. The company is attributing this to the hot weather over Easter (which does typically affect chocolate sales). The Easter trading period equates to nearly 33% of Q3 sales in Own Stores and that week was down 22.8%.
We think though that the competitive environment and structural shift away from the high street were also factors, given that Commercial sales to supermarkets were up 25.1%. However, Thorntons is expecting to gain market share in this segment over the period.
Franchise sales fell by 21.4% while Direct fell by 7.9% in part as a result of the loss of a particular corporate customer.
NH
Stock has been tightly controlled in expectation of a difficult trading environment.
The company now expects FY11 (to June) PBT of £3.0m to £4.5m, compared with previous guidance of broadly flat on last year. We had PBT of £6.2m (6.5p). Net debt is expected to be broadly flat on last year at around £26m.
Fixed charge cover (calculated on an EBITDA basis for covenants) would fall to c. 1.6x at £3m PBT, net debt/EBITDA 1.8x, though the company is not expecting a breach of covenants at that level. We suspect though that the 6.1p (flat) DPS we have in our estimates is under pressure.
The new chief executive, Jonathan Hart (ex Caffe Nero, Dixons) is due to give a strategy update in the coming months – a review of the store portfolio will be an important part of this, as well as cost savings in other areas. On our existing numbers, shares trade on 12x calendar 2011E P/E.
NH
(Outlaw – we have a weekly US markets live session, try that)
BE
Thorntons’ worst fears of the possible adverse implications of a late Easter,
especially if compounded by hot weather, did come to pass. The inevitable
consequence of this, despite a continued strong performance from the
Commercial channel, is a reduction in FY11E PBT guidance to a range of
£3.0m to £4.5m. We have cut our forecast to the lower end at £3.0m. Whilst
these events cannot be considered structural, they underline why the Retail
channel will be a key focus of the new CEO’s strategic review.
BE
Summary: Having been adversely affected by snowfall into its peak trading
period at Christmas, Thorntons has seen this compounded by unseasonally
hot weather over the second most important trading period of Easter.
Reflecting the pattern seen at Christmas, the most negative impact of this was felt
in the Retail channel, where Own stores delivered an LFL decline of 12.6%
over the 16 weeks to 30 April. This included an LFL decline of 22.8% in Easter
week, compared with the equivalent week last year. With the three week Easter
trading period typically accounting for around a third of Q3 Retail sales, we
estimate that underlying LFL was running around 7% to 8% over the
majority of the quarter. This is closer to the Own store LFL performance of Q2
(down 6.8%). The Commercial channel had another successful quarter, delivering
a sales increase of 25.1% over the quarter, which should undoubtedly have
delivered market share gains over this period. As previously indicated at the
interim stage, we feel it is prudent to assume some further impairment and
onerous lease charges in H2. We are therefore revising our FY11E PBT figure
to £3.0m from our previous £5.8m estimate, both of which include a £300K
impairment charge for H2. Our estimate therefore equates to £3.3m before
impairment charges, and is therefore at the lower end of the company’s
guidance to a range of £3.0m to £4.5m. This range gives pro forma EPS of 3.1p
to 4.7p.
BE
Divisional sales performance: Despite the disappointing performance from the
Retail channel, the Q3 total sales of £64.2m were down just 0.7%, with the
YTD sales still in positive territory with 2.9% growth. Thestar within this
remains Commercial, whose 25.1% sales increase to £27.7m in Q3 brings its
YTD sales gain to 28.6% (£72.9m). In contrast, the total Retail channel,
comprising Own stores, Franchise and Thorntons Direct, saw Q3 sales fall by
14.1% to £36.5m, with YTD sales down 7.8% to £124.8m. All three channels within Retail delivered a total YOY sales decline in Q3. We have already
discussed the most important contributor, which remains Own stores, where YTD
sales are down 8.5% in total (to £105.5m) and 7.5% on an LFL basis. Franchise
sales saw a 21.4% decline in Q3, with Direct also down, but by a lesser
7.9%. Within Direct, the consumer segment achieved some growth, but the
commercial channel was down, largely we understand due to the loss of a
contract early in the period.
BE
Gross margin and operating costs: Overheads were “aggressively”
managed in the period, with management also taking other compensating action
including the early introduction of ice cream into its stores. Thorntons also moved
swiftly in Easter week to increase promotions in order to reduce seasonal
stock and has exited the Easter period with lower stocks than last year. Gross
margin will have been adversely impacted both by this promotional spend in
Retail, together with the dilutive impact of a greater proportion of (lower margin)
sales being achieved by the Commercial division. The company’s lower PBT
guidance therefore results from the combination of lower sales and a lower
gross margin, with our earlier assumption of a flat H2 gross margin YOY now
highly unlikely.
BE
Outlook: The short-term trading outlook is challenging, with management
pointing to the prospect of furtherweakness in both high street footfall and
consumer spending. This is most likely to have an impact on Thorntons’ Retail
activities, although the Commercial division, where we expect to see continued
growth, may not be immune from these pressures. While both the Q2 and Q3
results have each suffered from unhelpful weather conditions, the impact has
been felt most within the group’s retail, and in particular, its Own Stores
operations. It is therefore clear where the main focus needs to be within CEO
Jonathan Hart’s strategic review, which is “well under way”.
BE
Our view: The upcoming strategic review will clearly be the next catalyst for
the shares, in our view, with a date for its announcement yet to be confirmed. In
the meantime, we are moving our FY11E PBT forecast to £3.0m (£5.8m) with
EPS of 3.1p (6.1p). With our previous FY11E dividend forecast of 6.1p only
partially covered by our new EPS forecast, we are however placing our
dividend forecast under review, as the board will undoubtedly want to take the
strategic review into account within its dividend deliberations. Awaiting the review,
we feel it is appropriate to place our outer year forecasts, recommendation
and target price under review at this stage, until we have heard Mr Hart’s plans
for the future. Within these, investor views on Mr Hart’s proposals for a managed
downsizing of the Retail chain (timetable, costs and eventual chain size) and his
commercial plans to drive greater returns from the remaining stores are likely to
be paramount to share price performance.
BE
Sorry – rather long that.
NH
what will be left our high street?
NH
Http://store.apple.com/ – apple store down -ususally a precursor to a new product/update…… applephiles will be tweeting furiously
NH
Apple store goes down, iMac refresh on high alert
NH
Details are spotty but Apple special forces have apparently swept into its data center, temporarily disrupting the company’s ability to sell anything online. We’re expecting official word of the operation from company CEO Steve Jobs, at about 08.30 Eastern Time. With any luck, a new iMac will emerge unscathed by the Nehalem menace, sporting a shiny new Sandy Bridge microarchitecture all its own.
BE
Perhaps they’ll change the colour of the plastic again.
BE
An epoch-making event.
NH
ARM will probably go up
ARM Holdings PLC (ARM:LSE): Last: 619.00, down 1.5 (-0.24%), High: 627.01, Low: 616.50, Volume: 2.14m
NH
Shall we rattle through
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
BE
I was assuming nothing
NH
you weren’t supposed to ask that
Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO:LSE): Last: 508.50, up 9.5 (+1.90%), High: 522.50, Low: 495.50, Volume: 737.40k
NH
this bid story keeps doing the rounds
NH
claims not to have heard a thing
NH
they king maker here is
NH
if he’s planning a buyout
NH
iron prices are at historic levels
NH
and the company is upping production
NH
perhaps that’s the answer
BE
Wasn’t the story that he may be planning to sell?
NH
that was another version
BE
Though I guess that begs the same “why now” question.
NH
this recent note from Seymour Pierce
NH
A magnetic attraction
With iron ore prices at historic levels, Ferrexpo has benefited from having
one of the lowest cost profiles in the global iron ore pellet industry.
However, with sizeable production increases in the medium to long term
and one of the largest unexploited iron ore resources in the world much of
Ferrexpo’s true value does not reside in its near term earnings. In our
initiation note on the company we attempt to look past the short term
and put a value on its medium and long term earnings potential
NH
Increasing and evolving
Over the next few years Ferrexpo will be developing its second mine at Yeristovskoe,
upgrading its current operations at Ferrexpo Poltava Mine (‘FPM’) and evolving its
sales and marketing network in preparation to become a 12Mtpa pellet producer by
the end of 2013. However, Ferrexpo’s intention is to eventually become a 20Mtpa
pellet producer, which will involve the addition of a concentrating and processing
facility as well as a dedicated pelletising line to take full advantage of its Yeristovskoe
asset.
NH
Untapped opportunities
We note recent press speculation about possible bidders for Ferrexpo and believe that
a valuation of Ferrexpo’s unexploited deposits will be of interest to investors. Indeed,
with over 2.0Bt of JORC resource sitting in its Belanovskoe and Galeshinskoe deposits
just to the north of Yeristovskoe and a further 14.2Bt of GKZ (FSU) resources being
explored along the northern part of the same anomaly, Ferrexpo has one of the largest
unexploited resource bases in the world.
NH
they reckon it’s worth
NH
Our sum of parts method uses DCF analysis and financial multiples to value
the company’s producing and planned mines (475p/share) and a resource-based
metric to value its JORC resource-bearing unexploited assets (94p/share). This gives
an overall target price for Ferrexpo of 569p/share. We believe this methodology takes
into consideration both the short term earnings potential of the company as well as its
medium to long term plans of increasing production substantially. Using our target
price it appears that the market is currently undervaluing Ferrexpo by c.18.8%. We
initiate our coverage with a BUY recommendation.
BE
My favourite recent note on this was from Dragon Capital
BE
Who have the advantage of being Ukranian
BE
So can add value like this
BE
Last Sunday we spotted Zhevago in Kyiv inspecting a small office construction
site. We find it hard to believe that someone approached with a $3bn bid and
seriously considering it would busy himself for hours scrutinizing finishing
works on a $15-20m office building whose construction has dragged on for the
past at least four years.
BE
They reckon no chance.
BE
Any deal to take over Ferrexpo will require approval of its CEO and major
shareholder, Ukrainian businessmen Kostyantyn Zhevago, who owns a 51%
stake. Although Zhevago’s diversified business group spans banking,
manufacturing and pharmaceuticals in addition to metals and mining, Ferrexpo
is his biggest cash-generating asset and a true jewel in the crown. Aside from
Ferrexpo, Zhevago has no other large-CAPEX projects except steel group
Vorskla Steel. But the latter will be much riskier to develop without Ferrexpo,
and should additional investments be needed, those could be sourced from
Ferrexpo via dividends as well as raised from the market. Moreover, given how
Zhevago has immersed himself in Ferrexpo operations, we do not believe he
may be thinking of exiting the company.
NH
some perhaps he wants to buy it
NH
if he’s looking round an office building at the weekend
NH
he obviously loves the company
NH
and is lining up a bid
BE
But surely the public listing’s quite useful
BE
Politically speaking, it improves visibility.
BE
It’s tougher to seize an asset that has a large and diverse shareholder base.
NH
he’s already trousered loads of dosh in the float
NH
he’s going to issue more equity
NH
there’s some much noise around this stock
NH
that something must have been considered
NH
or at the very least pitched
NH
from the airlines industry
NH
but you will all have to wait for that
BE
I guess we should move on then..
NH
RTRS-UK POLICE SAY NOT AWARE OF ANY LINK BETWEEN SELLAFIELD NUCLEAR SITE ARRESTS AND BIN LADEN DEATH
BE
Or an odd coincidence.
NH
Staying on the takeover tack
Lookers PLC (LOOK:LSE): Last: 66.00, up 0.25 (+0.38%), High: 71.50, Low: 65.25, Volume: 377.53k
NH
Jack Petchey is the bidder
NH
with a little help from his friends
NH
Trefick Limited (“Trefick”), Moor Park Capital Partners LLP (“Moor Park”) and Brett Palos Capital No.2 Limited (“Palos”): Statement re possible offer for Lookers plc (“Lookers”)
Trefick, Moor Park and Palos (the “Parties”) have noted the announcement made by Lookers on 27 April and the subsequent press speculation regarding the involvement of Trefick as a potential offeror. Trefick, Moor Park and Palos confirm that they have made a joint approach regarding a possible offer for the entire issued share capital of Lookers.
The approach, in respect of a potential cash offer, was made formally to the Board of Lookers in writing. The Parties have requested access to certain information in order to confirm the cash offer, but the Board of Lookers has, to date, declined to provide this
BE
Yup – he’s been working on this “opportunistic” move for months.
BE
Interesting names attached, too.
NH
Brett Palos is an active venture capitalist and real estate investor. He has extensive investments in commercial and residential property and was the chairman and largest shareholder of ISA Supplies Team, a stationery distribution group that was sold to a private equity group in 2007
NH
He’s actually better know
NH
as Philip Green’s step son
NH
from Tina’s first marriage
NH
is as much about the freehold property Lookers owns
NH
Here’s Nick Bubb at Arden Partners
NH
Lookers (Add); the veteran property dealer Jack Petchey has long had a 17% stake in Lookers and he has confirmed today that his investment vehicle Trefick has made a joint bid with some other property chums for the company. He complains that Lookers won’t grant him access to the books and Lookers say that the approach is “highly speculative”, so this bid doesn’t look that much of a runner at present, but the shares have moved up strongly, to 68p as we write
NH
Our current target of 70p is based on a conservative 15% discount to our “sum-of-the-parts” valuation of 82p and we have that under review. Everybody knows that Lookers has valuable freehold property interests, as well as valuable car parts wholesale assets, but unlocking that value is the name of the game and the Trefick consortium are clearly frustrated at the situation. We would hold on and await developments.
NH
do you reckon they will come back?
NH
Petchey doesn’t seem to give up
BE
Depends if the stock runs away from here.
BE
Petchey’s interest won’t disappear overnight
BE
But I’m pretty sure he’ll have a maximum valuation in his mind.
BE
And the chances of a bidding war look slim to nil, given the shareholder list.
BE
Trefick (which always puts me in mind of the Fast Show) is on 17.26%
NH
who also sounds like someone from the FastShow
BE
And below that you have a spread of institutions
BE
None of which owns more than 6%-ish.
NH
staying with the small caps
Asos PLC (ASC:LSE): Last: 2,318, up 14 (+0.61%), High: 2,333, Low: 2,294, Volume: 80.01k
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lots of burnt fingers in this one
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lots of punters short and caught
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as the price heads ever upwards
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it’s an internet fashion retailer
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they have attracted a new shareholder
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Gilder Gagnon Howe and co just popped up as picking up 1.6m shares or 7.3% of the co
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Now this looks to be a very odd outfilt
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): Our firm was founded to help small investors build significant capital over time.
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Since we believe in owning as many promising stocks as possible, we generally buy on margin.* Borrowing to invest can force liquidations if the market collapses, so we try to balance this exposure by selling short. This ability to seek investments both up and downstream is rarely available to smaller investors. We, however, view it as an effective tool that doubles our clients’ dollars at work (it also doubles our commissions), while moderately reducing their exposure to abrupt swings in the market.
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Don’t like the sound of that much
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if they are on the register
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it could make things even more squeezy
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it’s also worth keeping an eye on this stock today
Exillon Energy PLC (EXI:LSE): Last: 474.30, up 6.2 (+1.32%), High: 478.00, Low: 460.90, Volume: 53.05k
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EXILLON (EXI) is being up weighted from 50% to 75% and is increasing the number of shares in issue at tonight’s close.
The result of both these events will increase the effective number of shares in the index from 69.035M to 121.133M i.e. 75.46%.
Not only will this mean trackers have to buy to keep up their weighting, any samplers or closet trackers will now have to look more closely as it will be 3bps of the All Share Index.
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A few other small caps to look at
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anything connected to Nambia
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seem to have taken a tumble today
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Extract Resources (EXT AU) shares are still suspended after a couple of busy days of newsflow. Firstly, the Namibian Government said that it will issue all mining and mineral exploration permits to the state-owned mining company Epangelo. Like the Guineans, the Namibians are claiming that companies in country are not developing fast enough. Clearly this is a threat to the Husab project. Extract and Kalahari Minerals (KAH LN) are both making the right noises about the statement by the minister, Isak Katali, have been taken out of context and that relationships are good etc, etc.
Secondly, we await an announcement regarding the bid for Kalahari by CGNPC. Kalahari shares are trading at a 21% discount to the offer. After Fukushima and now the uncertainty in Namibia, a substantial revision or a withdrawal of the offer is expected.
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apparently it just applies to new licenses
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but is making people uneasy
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that are supposed to have billions of barrels of oil
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off the coast of the country
Chariot Oil and Gas Ltd (CHAR:LSE): Last: 194.50, down 35.5 (-15.43%), High: 232.74, Low: 191.00, Volume: 1.49m
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does mineral rights, include oil?
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(Outlaw – yellow card for you. my patience is wearing thin. Google it)
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and just going back to Kalahari
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we find out later today
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whether the Chinese bidding deadline gets extended
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as they haven’t got all the regulatory approvals
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my bet is that it does
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Here’s a bit more on this quite complex bid situation
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it’s just the statement from thecompany
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Oh, one postscript on Namibia
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An emergency statement from Weatherely adds a little clarity to matters.
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Weatherly International Plc notes recent market commentary regarding statements made by the Minister of Mines in Namibia concerning the involvement of the state owned mining company, Epangelo Mining (Pty) Ltd, on specific strategic minerals, including copper.
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The Minister has advised the Chamber of Mines of Namibia on 29 April 2011 that any new policy will not apply to current licenses and will therefore not affect existing Exclusive Prospecting Licences (“EPLs”), Mining Licences (“MLs”), and Mineral Deposit Retention Licences (“MDRLs”).
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Weatherly’s current operations and its existing licenses will therefore be unaffected by any new policy.
Weatherly International PLC (WTI:LSE): Last: 10.04, down 0.96 (-8.73%), High: 10.04, Low: 10.04, Volume: 4.04m
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there’s always a danger these things creep
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Yup. Regulatory land grab.
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Happens everywhere. Including the North Sea.
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Coal in Indonesia this time
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has been having a little local difficultly
Churchill Mining PLC (CHL:LSE): Last: 56.00, up 18.25 (+48.34%), High: 57.00, Low: 41.25, Volume: 2.86m
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but has hit back today
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they have only raised £7m
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but a couple of locals are putting up the money
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I haven’t had time to check either of them out
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to see if they are well connected or not
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Northland Capital Partners
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Raised £7.7m at 40p/share, a 60% premium to the 20-day VWAP, through a private placement with Mr Rachmat Gobel and Ms Fara Luwia, through PT Gobel International, a jointly-held company majority owned by Mr Gobel.
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PT Gobel International is an Indonesian company that partners with international companies in Indonesia, including Matsushita Corporation/Panasonic and is the local representative of Qatar Telecom in PT Indosat Tbk.
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As part of the transaction, Mr Gobel and Ms Luwia will be entitled to appoint two directors to the board.
Proceeds to be used for the further development of the East Kutai Coal Project.
NORTHLAND UK VIEW: With the East Kutai Coal Project currently bogged down in the legal process, the placing provides some additional financial fire power but also some much needed local expertise
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some much needed funds
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for the (cough) legal fund
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Yes. A handy fillip for the (cough) legal fund.
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done with the smallers I think
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unless you have seen anything else Bryce
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Nope – don’t think so.
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Right a few more things to mention
Petropavlovsk PLC (POG:LSE): Last: 909.00, up 16 (+1.79%), High: 920.00, Low: 891.00, Volume: 474.35k
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the stake of that IRC thing
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it listed in Hong Kong has been going gangbusters
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no one seems to know why
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here’s our new mining sector watcher on that
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Some stocks in the news. IRC Ltd (1029 HK) was up again having rallied from HK$1.53 at the beginning of April to an intraday high of HK$2.46 today.
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Nobody I have spoken to in Hong Kong or elsewhere knows the reason for such optimism in the stock. There has been talk of institutional buying, but if this is the case it looks reckless, and there has been the sniff of a bid rumour from Evraz but nothing you could hang your hat on. A couple of local brokers have been pushing it hard though on a valuation arguement. Petropavlovsk (POG LN) has not moved in sympathy and a few of the risk/arb guys I speak to have taken notice of this.
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The trouble is the equity markets are trying to predict a commodity crash so mining companies across the board have significantly underperformed, irrespective of which commodity it is that they are mining.
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not sure how liquid the stock is
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still own a large chunk of it
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The temptation to slot must be considerable.
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Would certainly help pay for this process rejig they need at their two main pits.
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over the past couple of weeks
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they won’t generate enough free cash flow
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to pay for all their ops
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there was a good Collins Stewart note on this
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While you do, I’ll note that some outfit called Alfa Bank have upgraded POG this morning.
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O/W Despite Lower Forecasts
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We push back our commissioning forecast to early 2014 from early 2013. The
POX facility represents 100% of production in the refractory ore category
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In spite of this change, the higher gold price pushes our target price
moderately higher to 1,150p from 1,040p. Unlike PMTL, which has moved up
even as the production outlook deteriorated, POG has been a significant
underperformer, and it is probably a good time to begin moving back into the
stock. The next major catalysts will be improving production as of 2Q11 and
commissioning of Albyn.
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here’s the Collins Stewart note on the cash situation
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High capex plans highlights a funding shortfall / the need
to raise money
With realistic 2011 target of 600 koz, this should be a profitable year to
Petropavlovsk with our forecast of operating cash flow of $264mn from the
gold business. However, due to high capex requirements, based on our
forecast for 2011, we highlight the possibility of Petropavlovsk requiring
external funding, either through additional debt of equity or a combination of
the two.
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We assume that Petropavlovsk does not intend to use any of the $225 mn
cash attributed to its iron ore division, as stated by the management at the
results presentation. If the company meets our operating cash forecasts, we
estimate the potential for a $150mn funding shortfall in 2011 (see figure 5
above).
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This excludes that potentially large POX Hub capex in 2012
We also highlight that the capital requirements for the construction of the
Pokrovskiy POX processing hub are likely to be in the region of $350mn or
higher, based on comparable projects globally. As the company has not
provided capital estimates for the POX hub at this stage, we do keep our
capex estimate for 2012 unchanged at $190mn, awaiting the Company
numbers. However with the possibility of the actual figure being
substantially higher, we highlight that the funding requirement for
Petropavlovsk are likely to remain very tight into 2012. The possibility
of high capital requirement for the POX facility is also one of the key
risks to our valuation.
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six-month lockup, I imagine.
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thanks for joining us Rabble
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one quick thing before we leave
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a story from the NY Post
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Ceo Lloyd Blankfein, approaching his fifth anniversary running the storied investment bank amid some Wall Street speculation that recent regulatory tussles have left him burned out and looking to step down, is likely to stay put at the helm of Goldman Sachs for at least two years, sources tell The Post.
Call it a desire to do more of “God’s work,” as Blankfein once famously described it two years ago.
Or call it Bronx-born Blankfein’s unwillingness to the leave the gold-plated Manhattan franchise with a reputation more tarnished than when he found it on June 29, 2006, the day he ascended to the top spot following Hank Paulson’s confirmation as Treasury Secretary.
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(Slough, see the raw section somewhere in the middle. It’s marked raw.)
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Market still flat. Bin Laden still dead.
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and sorry for the comment trouble
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it appears people are being auto removed
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it has nothing to do with me
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will investigate with Assanka
Cracking little software shop who built FT Alphaville
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It’s rise of the machines.
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They’re turning against you, ROTR.
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could they be a bit more selective
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and bring back some of the others
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she could go for example