April, 2011
US Markets Live transcript 8 Apr 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 15:08 on 8 Apr 2011. Participants in this chat were: John McDermott Joseph Cotterill, FT Cardiff Garcia JMMorning everyone JMCardiff just sorting himself out
Reminder: US markets live starts in 20 minutes
As usual, we’ll be kicking off promptly at three minutes late, or 10:03am EST, 3:03pm GMT.
Topics du jour will be the US government shutdown, the latest from Japan, oil prices, MENA, Portugal and the rest of the Eurozone.
Portugal – prepare for more privatisation
The Portuguese rescue mission is progressing quicker than we thought.
The Eurogroup and ECOFIN ministers outlined the three pillars of the bailout package on Friday and notably it included an “ambitious”
[FOW Amsterdam] The Bernanke 1×2 Call Spread
By Theo Casey, a columnist at Futures & Options World, blogging live from FOW’s European Equity Options conference in Amsterdam.
Presenting the best trading idea of the conference…
The Bernanke put,
The disputed budget cuts in perspective
From Hamilton Place Strategies, with a hat tip to Morning Money, over this might the US government shut down at midnight:
The latest reports have the difference down to $5bn, and then there’s those pesky policy riders.
Europe stress test benchmarks and banks revealed [updated]
Ninety banks and an own-brand core equity requirement of five per cent of risk-weighted assets…
That’s one less bank than last year and a lot of capital questions (The merged cajas of last year have reduced the tally a bit).
Markets Live transcript 8 Apr 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:21 on 8 Apr 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT bryce.elder NHHola Rabble NHwelcome to ML NH60 minutes or so of pure markets fun
(Under) Perform Group takes the plunge
And the latest company to brave the treacherous waters of London’s IPO market gets off to a less than auspicious start.
The price action in Perform Group, the progressive sports media company, on Friday morning.
Is Bwin.PartyGaming uninvestable?
The Schleswig-Holstein question is so complicated, only three men in Europe have ever understood it. One was Prince Albert, who is dead. The second was a German professor who became mad. I am the third and I have forgotten all about it - Lord Palmerston (1784- 1865)
(H/T Numis Securities)
Yup,
Getting one’s Vickers in a twist
Handy heat map sort of thing from Goldman’s analysts, on what Monday’s Independent Commission on Banking report (chair: Sir John Vickers) promises for UK lenders.
Click to enlarge:
Diamond Bob will no doubt be pleased to see Barclays scoring at number one (err…) but have a look at what could slip up Lloyds regarding restrictions on wholesale funding,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Friday,
- The foolishness of crowds.
- A big week for Bob Dylan.
- And a very big week for Jamie Dimon.
- Lessons on the Fibonacci sequence.
- Who wins, who loses from a US government shutdown.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
Thomas Mayer: Trichet must now raise rates again
Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, will now face criticism for raising rates too early.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- TNT issues big profits warning; finalises demerger — statement.
- Vedanta Resources reports record zinc and aluminium production in Q4 — statement.
- Edwards Group pulls IPO — statement.
Further further reading
For the commute home, where the carry trade means helping your better half unload the car in exchange for first dibs on the remote,
- The FT visits Bernie Madoff.
- Where Galleon allegedly made its money.
IMF wakes up to oil price rises…
… and not a moment too soon.
It’s been quite a couple of days for oil prices, with front month WTI crude hitting $110 on Thursday for the first time in more than two years:
Why? Take your pick:
Charts du jour, Q1 earnings
We’ve been distracted by other matters and, aside from an analysis of stock correlations, haven’t written much about something guaranteed NOT to shut down next week: US earnings season.
That will change soon,
QEased commodities charts, part deux
The QEased commodity debate continues…
Our latest contribution to the “Yes, quantitative easing is making commodity prices go bananas” comes from Vivin Oberoi, head of global macro research and Trading at Telluride Asset Management — a hedge fund based in Wayzata,
Quake watch: Japan hit yet again
Just as anxious, sleep-deprived and quake-traumatised eastern Japan was beginning to relax – just a little: a fresh earthquake struck the already ravaged region of Tohoku and rocked Tokyo at 11:32pm local time,
Yen weakening after initial post-earthquake gains
Details remain hard to come by after the 7.1 earthquake that hit Japan late Thursday night local time, but recent flashes from Kyodo News indicate that its damage has thus far been limited, though a tsunami warning has been issued for the northeast coast where it hit:
Commerzbank burns some fingers
If you’re wondering how to scare a short seller then look no further than Commerzbank’s mind-numbingly complex €11bn cash call.
Either by accident or design (probably design) its structure has caused a measure of discomfort those short of Commerzbank stock.
Cut out and keep – Portugal aid timetable
At pixel time Portugal’s government was busy announcing that it’ll formally request EU loans later on Thursday. Looks like they have ‘discovered’ they can negotiate without elections after all.
(It seems to be combination of asking the president to lead talks and conferring with opposition political parties.)
So this RBS account of what comes next might prove useful:
[FOW Amsterdam] Vix wagging
What do dividend futures have in common with the Vix, and Vix futures?
Our hypothesis: both have seen excessive demand from structured products desks skew price discovery in their markets. And in the case of the Vix,
ECB hikes 25bps — and so it begins…
… the tightening cycle at the ECB that is.
Missing – Portuguese dead cat
What next for Portuguese government bonds?
At pixel time on Thursday morning there hadn’t been so much as a dead cat bounce, which was not the case with Greece or Ireland when they went cap in hand to the IMF/EU.
A trip through peripheral bank vortices
Equities and CDS sometimes have an odd relationship with reference to the same entity.
‘Cross current circularity’ (aka the vortex of fear) — the effect whereby equities and CDS price off each other in a crisis.
Markets Live transcript 7 Apr 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:20 on 7 Apr 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT bryce.elder
NHMorning Rabble
NHwelcome to ML
NHwhere we have just been sipping our