April, 2011
The hidden slide of Japanese business sentiment
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan business survey is seen as a vital guide to corporate Japan’s expectations and more importantly, a key indicator of spending and investment plans.
It is also, as MoneySupply once noted,
Michael Pettis on China’s useless banks
The Banque Générale Privée was to France, as Chinese banks are to _____.
It’s not a tough analogy, that. Though the idea of comparing an 18th century French bank to modern-day Chinese financials is rather original.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Monday,
- Nuns question (Goldman’s) ‘God’s work’.
- “Facebook is the largest news organization ever”.
- The market designers.
- 60 Minutes on foreclosure fraud: still plenty to see.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Monday’s FT,
Clive Crook: Congress could let recovery crumble
The US economy showed new vitality in March, according to employment figures released last week.
FTfm on AV
Some highlights from Monday’s FTfm.
Fund industry ‘overpaid by $1,300bn’
A draft report by IBM says the fund industry is destroying value by being paid too much for the value it delivers. The report predicts big job cuts in the asset management industry
Blue chip Japanese equities in demand
Blue-chip Japanese equities are continuing to attract interest from value investors,
An exit strategy for the Fed
We have all the tools we need to achieve a smooth and effective exit at the appropriate time.
Ben Bernanke, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, March 1, 2011
Friday’s decent jobs report and accompanying hawkish cacophony have encouraged further talk about when the Fed will raise rates and revert to a place called normalcy.
Further further reading
For the commute home, where your very own recovery starts,
- The pieces of America’s recovery are falling into place (maybe).
- A Reuters special report on the West’s unwanted war with Libya.
- Q1 M&A,
US Markets Live transcript 1 Apr 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 15:03 on 1 Apr 2011. Participants in this chat were: John McDermott Cardiff Garcia Neil Hume, FT Joseph Cotterill, FT JMGood morning from New York,
Centralised price discovery!
Behold a central pricing solution for illiquid assets… stuff like TruPS CDOs or, err, Irish bank loans.
Now that comes from independent valuation consultancy firm PF2 Securities Evaluation, so there’s more than a little self-interest here.
Non-farm payrolls up 216,000
Non-Farm payrolls rose by 216,000 jobs in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Analysts had been expecting an increase of 190k jobs in the month. The unemployment rate came in at at 8.6 per cent,
The perplexing US consumer
The more we read about recent US consumption activity, the less we seem to understand exactly what’s happening.
But that won’t stop us from trying. Get comfortable, folks — this will take a while.
Consumer sentiment
Certainly the discouraging news on consumer sentiment was coming in spades through the middle of this week.
Markets Live transcript 1 Apr 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:30 on 1 Apr 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Joseph Cotterill, FT NHHola la Rabble NHand welcome to Markets Live
Stress-testing Ireland’s stress testers
BlackRock is really making a name for itself in financial crisis-related services — valuing the Fed’s Maiden Lane portfolio and undertaking the Irish banking stress tests too. But Ireland’s central bank also hired Boston Consulting Group (BCG) to supervise the stress testers,
Bank of Ireland – it lives!
The price action early on Friday morning:
No, that’s not an April fool.
Shares in Bank of Ireland really are trading higher.
And that’s because traders and analysts think there’s still an equity investment case and a chance government ownership can be kept below 50 per cent (if subordinated debt holders to play ball).
An MEP out to risk-weight the eurozone
Here’s a tip for all financial journalists and market participants.
To spot the next source of financial instability — simply identify the assets currently considered ‘safest.’ At the moment we’d argue those are covered bonds,
Tepco confusion
The latest kerfuffle about the future of Tokyo Electric Power Co, the power provider and operator of Japan’s crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant, began quietly enough, with a small report in the Mainichi Daily newspaper,
Irish loan losses, forbearance, and a bad feeling
We’re still working our way through the Irish banks’ stress tests results. But there’s already a conundrum in assessing the severity of the tests.
Severity being the essential variable here — a severe test underlines Ireland’s vulnerability to restructuring and makes the case to outside actors that they need to provide backstop funding,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Friday,
- Support is running out for the muni market.
- The entrepreneurial spirit returns.
- On blind bankers.
- The perception of the Sokol situation.
- Some cornography.
- Japan’s liquid fuel crisis.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
Analysis: Chinese finance – a shadowy presence
With banks subject to Beijing’s tough credit and interest rate controls, a growing system of informal loans provides capital to the private sector but buoys inflation,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- Bank of Ireland working on initiatives to meet €4.2bn equity capital requirement; shares to resume trading– statement.
- Logitech warns on profits; blames weak retail sales in EMEA region — statement.
Further further reading
The “Further further readings” post usually runs in the late afternoon US time, but in this case you can file it under “we forgot to hit publish”. Doh! Or consider it a Tokyo special. Either way, sorry about this.