Courtesy of Nomura’s US economics team, here’s a quick guide to the data that would and would not be disrupted by an ongoing shut-show in Washington.
This list is not exhaustive, but it does cover the main indicators. The italicised releases are those due next week.
Would not release data
Department of Labor/Bureau of Labor Statistics
- PPI*;
- CPI;
- import prices;
- initial jobless claims;
- employment report
Commerce Department
- Trade balance;
- business inventories;
- building permits/housing starts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
- GDP;
- personal income and expenditure
Census Bureau
- Retail sales;
- construction spending; inventories and factory orders;
- new home sales
Department of Treasury
- Monthly Treasury Statement
Would release data:
Department of Treasury
- Treasury International Capital System (TIC);
- Daily Treasury statements;
- interest rate statistics;
- investor class auction allocations;
- quarterly refunding documents;
- SDN list
The Fed and reserve banks
- Beige Book;
- Industrial production (although it may be distorted due to dependence on government sources);
- Philly Fed survey;
- Empire State survey
Other organizations and indicators
- MBA mortgage applications;
- U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment;
- NAR’s existing/pending home sales;
- Conference Board data;
- weekly retail sales (ICSC-Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook);
- S&P Case-Shiller index;
- NAHB builder sentiment; vehicle sales
Related links:
A complete shut-show [updated] – FT Alphaville
The disputed budget cuts in perspective – FT Alphaville
Shutdown averted, again, perhaps, or maybe not – FT Alphaville
Shutdown averted, for now – FT Alphaville
Shutdown shenanigans: something for the weekend? – FT Alphaville