March, 2011
José Sócrates’ German haircut
We can’t be a fly on the wall at Wednesday’s meeting in Berlin between Chancellor Merkel and José Sócrates so, dear readers, you will have to make do with this desk note from RBS.
(Emphasis ours.)
Portugal, a broken debt market [updated]
Or, asking the ‘If the ECB won’t, who will buy this stuff?’ question…
…and getting an ominous silence.
Charts via Laurent Fransolet of Barclays Capital:
They show that Portuguese investors bought the equivalent of their government’s total net issuance of debt in 2010 (banks about €10bn,
Worth every penny
How about this as a reward for failure…
Jeffrey Meyer, who masterminded a truly spectacular destruction of shareholder value as chief executive of Gartmore, has landed a $6.1m payoff.
From Bloomberg.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Wednesday,
- Why the dollar’s reign is near an end.
- Debt is back, and so is risk.
- “Trade the first day, then stay away”.
- Why the Gupta case is important.
- When Goldman’s board meetings leaked.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and offerings from Wednesday’s FT,
Martin Wolf: Arab freedom is worth a short shock
What might the Arab uprising mean for the world?, asks the FT columnist. No one knows the answer to this question.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Wednesday,
- National Lottery refuses consent to Camelot commercial services application; Paypoint welcomes decision — statement, statement and statement.
- ITV posts pre-tax profit of £321m,
Further further reading
For the commute home, and to help you scrutinise the lying scoundrels in your lives,
- “Disgraced financier Bernard Madoff may be a lying, conniving scoundrel, with gusts up to psychopath, but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong.”
Brazil’s balance sheet, oil, and the BRL (part 2)
In Part 1 we introduced a recent Nomura paper on how the Brazilian Real is currently overvalued. Here’s the explanation.
The BRL as an oil play
The answer lies in the big oil fields discovered in the last several years off Brazil’s Atlantic coast,
Brazil’s balance sheet, oil, and the BRL (part 1)
To what extent is the current strength of the BRL based on the expectation of something that hasn’t happened yet?
That’s one of the questions asked by Nomura in an intriguing new paper that examines the position of international investors in Brazil,
Government shutdown, economy slowdown?
Well, it’s a start.
The FT reported Monday evening that the House of Represenatives will on Tuesday vote on a two-week continuing resolution (CR) that funds the federal government through March 18 and reduces FY 2011 discretionary authority by $4bn.
[Galleon] SEC phones up Goldman ex-director charges
Highlights (lowlights?) from SEC insider trading charges against Rajat Gupta, a former Goldman director:
Specifically, Gupta disclosed to [Raj] Rajaratnam material nonpublic information concerning Berkshire Hathaway Inc’s (“Berkshire”) $5 billion investment in Goldman Sachs before it was publicly announced on September 23,
UpTIC in China’s treasury holdings? Sort of
The US treasury department has published the preliminary results of its annual revisions to foreign holdings of US securities.
In chart form, with an explainer to follow:
The US treasury department publishes monthly estimates of these numbers based on interviews with US financial institutions.
Are some traders gaming the system via settlement failures?
How worried should investors be about rising settlement fails?
In the opinion of the Kauffman Foundation, very.
A new study penned by among others Kauffman’s chief investment officer, Harold Bradley and vice president of research Robert E.
Plunge protection teams, New Egypt edition
On a less than glorious day for MENA sovereign wealth funds…
FT Alphaville’s Cairo agent sends this newspaper clipping our way:
It’s a report on the Egyptian stock exchange’s continued inability to reopen,
Volatility as the new Black-Scholes
Here’s a timely discussion following the Vix smashing through the 20 level.
It comes via Euromoney columnist, Theo Casey, and it concerns a 2010 paper by Eckhard Platen, professor of quant finance at the University of Technology,
Saudi contagion shivers
This is Saudi Arabia’s benchmark stock index on Tuesday:
It’s own some 6.6 per cent — its lowest since September 2009 — on ongoing rumours that Saudi Arabia is sending tanks to Bahrain to support its ruling regime.
Madoff, father of the automated trade
For those who have not yet stumbled across New York Magazine’s beguiling interview with Bernie Madoff, we do recommend a closer look.
Not only is it a compelling read in its own right — Steve Fishman,
Unlucky Corsair Finance
We’ve heard of CDOs swashbuckling with risk, but this is just silly…
On Tuesday, Moody’s junked €200m of notes of Corsair Finance (Ireland) No. 2 Limited, a collateralised debt obligation referencing several corporate entities.
Markets Live transcript 1 Mar 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:15 on 1 Mar 2011. Participants in this chat were: bryce.elder Neil Hume, FT BEMorning BESorry we’re late BEBut some rather big news dropped exactly as we were about to go on air
Japan’s big comeback…?
It was almost – but not quite – like (the good) old times in Japan as nearly 1,000 fund managers, other investors and corporate executives gathered in Tokyo’s Grand Hyatt hotel to kick off CLSA’s 8th annual Japan forum this week.
Goldman delivers for Ocado investors
Here’s a surprise. Goldman Sachs has responded to the sharp fall in the Ocado share price with an upgrade.
We upgrade Ocado to Buy (from Neutral). The stock has declined c.20% in the past month, offering an attractive entry point.
The EFSF chief executive writes in…
Klaus Regling, the chief executive of the European Financial Stability Facility, strives to argue in a recent letter to the FT that he is not in charge of a massive collateralised debt obligation.
For argument’s sake,
HMV’s debt disaster [updated]
Hopes are fading for HMV.
The embattled books and DVD retailer has issued another profits warning on Tuesday morning.
Since the publication of the Group’s Interim Management Statement (IMS) on 5 January 2011,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Tuesday,
- A very political Oscars.
- Jim Rogers: “Saudi Arabia is lying…”
- Where lawyers earn the most.
- US healthcare: the definition of an outlier.
- Bank brand powerhouses are not so powerful.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Tuesday’s FT,
Gideon Rachman: Better for Libya to liberate itself
“Never again” is the phrase that is always uttered after an international atrocity,