March, 2011
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- WPP to increase dividend payout to 40 per cent of earnings; announces annual results- statement.
- KBC agrees to sell Centea to Credit Agricole for €527m – statement.
Further further reading
For the commute home, or while marking your over/under on tomorrow’s payrolls number,
- Banks’ litigation losses in tabular form.
- 200 years of treasuries.
- PE conference attendees say that PE firms add value some of the time.
The reemergence of cov-lite loans
FT Alphaville noted last week that Citi analysts were predicting a return to the heady pre-crisis levels of leveraged buy-outs.
But, they argued, this time is kind of different: there will be fewer “mega-deals”
Trichet calls for a ‘quantum leap’ amid ‘strong vigilance’
Thursday’s comments from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet have gone down a treat in the foreign exchange markets.
At pixel time the euro was headed straight through a bunch of moving averages while approaching the all important psychological $1.40 mark:
Sky News, and the irregular plurals
Are we missing something here?
Culture secretary Jeremy Hunt is satisfied that News Corporation’s planned float-and-leaseback of Sky News would “address concerns about media plurality”. An independent board will keep Rupert Murdoch from setting BSkyB’s agenda,
Why debt investors are taking leave of their senses
Here’s an interesting view.
Is the search for yield getting in the way of all rational sense in the market?
BNY Mellon’s Simon Derrick, currency strategist, makes the point that investors are somewhat taking leave of their senses when faced with the choice of extra yield versus added risk or crisis exposure.
Markets Live transcript 3 Mar 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:08 on 3 Mar 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT bryce.elder NHMorning rabble NHwelcome to ML NHand hour or so markets chit chat
FTSE reshuffle runners and riders
FTSE reshuffle time is almost upon us — the results are due next Wednesday based on Tuesday’s closing prices.
So here’s a quick run down of who will be leaving and joining London’s various leading indices.
Let the battle for Sky commence [updated]
Now that the Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport has approved News Corp’s bid for BSkyB (as long as it spins off Sky News) the real fun can begin.
News Corp sources have told the FT that any Sky investor expecting to get more than 750p-800p for their shares is going to be sorely disappointed.
‘Peace’ breaks out in Brent crude
Noted by the FT’s Jamie Chisholm early on Thursday — a $3 sell-off in Brent, on reports of a survival plan for Gaddafi ‘peace plan’ for Libya:
A very odd peace plan, and a grimly amusing oil price reaction.
Quick, to the MRO
Borrowing from the ECB’s emergency overnight facility has dropped from record highs — €15.1bn recently — to a more normal €1.24bn.
From an ECB release on Thursday morning:
Which presumably
It’s all about Russian Arctic energy
It looks like 2011 really is becoming the year of Russian strategic energy partnership deals.
The latest to join the ever-growing Arctic-focused club is French oil major Total. The firm announced on Wednesday that it will pay $4bn for a stake in Russia’s top independent gas company Novatek,
Lehman in SCDO trial down under
Bloomberg reports Wednesday on the first day of an Australian trial involving a long-running dispute with potentially interesting consequences for notions of fiduciary duty:
Wingecarribee Shire Council,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Thursday,
- The esteemed board member and his friend the hedgie….
- 15 reasons to love the loonie.
- Guy Hands’ “get-out-of-jail-free” cards have gone.
- Roubini’s big muni report.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
Guy Verhofstadt, Jacques Delors and Romano Prodi: Europe must plan a reform, not a pact
The last time EU leaders met, in early February, a Franco-German proposal for a competitiveness pact was thrust upon them.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Thursday,
- Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport says he intends to approve News Corp bid for BSkyB — statement.
- Glencore announces 39% rise in full-year net income before exceptionals – statement.
Further further reading
For the commute home, to read on your shiny new YOU KNOW WHAT,
- Only one iPad2 link, from TechCrunch — and that’s all you’re getting!
- The Center for Economic and Policy Research takes a look at recent small business surveys and concludes that structural unemployment is a minimal problem.
Beige book: signs of recovery and price rises
The Fed’s latest survey of economic conditions in Reserve Bank districts was released Wednesday afternoon.
Here’s the top line:
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that overall economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace in January and early February.
The “autocracy risk premia” of frontier market bonds
In responding to the direct action of protestors, investors (indirectly) may never before have attached so much weight to democratic credentials, and we suspect there have been few such moments in history when a small number of institutional characteristics can explain so much variation in bond prices.
Shutdown averted, for now
A two-week stay of compromise, we suppose.
The Senate has approved the continuing resolution that the House passed yesterday, keeping the government funded for two more weeks.
But what then? The low-hanging fruit of Obama-selected cuts has been plucked,
Get specific on muni bonds, say Roubini analysts
Municipal bonds, doctor doom will see you now.
The WSJ reports Wednesday that Roubini Global Economics analysts David Nowakowski and Prajakta Bhide estimate there will be about $100bn of muni bond “defaults”
Irish bank bonds — handy haircut hit list
‘In the interests of providing public information…’ Ireland’s central bank just released details on outstanding senior and subordinated debt issued by Irish banks. You know, the stuff in the bail-in firing line (notably the bonds in the third column of this chart):
Mr Contagion, 1989-2009
No, this isn’t a festering collection of mutant organisms…
…although, close!
It’s a chart of evolving banking connections between ‘modules’ of the financial system from 1989 to 2009.
So,
Why you really can’t swap Libyan crude easily, at all
It’s not just about finding enough quality crude to replace Libya — it’s about the not insubstantial political risks hanging over those supplies, too.
Fighting in Libya worsened on Wednesday, as rebels counter-attacked an offensive by Gaddafi forces into the country’s east — which is where much of the oil production is (was),
Byzantine insurance sagas: Axa-ed
It’s not quite on the level of the Pru’s ill-fated $35.5bn (reduced to $31.38bn) attempt to acquire AIG’s main Asian unit in 2010.
But to anyone who has followed – even in passing – one of the most Byzantine takeover sagas in the insurance world,
Eurozone PPI déjà vu
On Wednesday, official data showed that Eurozone producer prices in January had risen at their highest rate since the launch of the single currency.
As Reuters reported, prices at factory gates in the zone’s 17 countries rose 1.5 per cent month-on-month in January achieving a 6.1 per cent year-on-year rise.
Bahrain’s strategic importance, graph du jour
Wondering why Saudi Arabia is so fussed about Bahrain?
JBC Energy encapsulates the reason in one helpful chart:
Most of Saudi Arabia’s chief producing fields are right around the corner.
As the analysts noted on Wednesday (our emphasis):
Markets Live transcript 2 Mar 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:32 on 2 Mar 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT bryce.elder NHHola NHRabble NHwelcome to ML