March, 2011
S&P: Japan quake “likely” to be costliest ever
Quick update from S&P on Friday:
Worldwide catastrophe losses in the first quarter of 2011 could set a new record, as losses from the Japanese earthquake and subsequent tsunamis are tallied. Insured losses from last month’s New Zealand earthquake are currently estimated at $10 billion,
Day of raging tranquility
After Thursday’s reports that Saudi Arabian security forces had shot at protesters in the country’s eastern region, there was a good chance the long-anticipated Day of Rage would be one of today’s big market stories.
Japan update – energy and insurance
The latest from the wires and the FT’s live blog is that the death toll is “set to exceed 1,000″ and that aftershocks of magnitude 6.6 and 5.8 have been detected in northern Japan.
A “nuclear emergency”
Of earthquakes, the BoJ and the ever-resilient yen
As we noted earlier on Friday, there’s nothing quite like a killer earthquake and tsunami to boost a currency — at least, that seems to be the case in Japan where the yen not only recovered after dipping in the wake of Friday’s 8.9-magnitude earthquake and massive tsunami,
Vessel tracking in Japan
With reports of missing ships and commercial vessels running ashore all over Japan, we thought it a good time to check in on the last known whereabouts of vessels in the region, courtesy of Vessel Tracker.
Three years of pain in Euroland
Not just two years. Now it’s three years.
In terms of peripheral bond maturities that are coming under pressure this week, that is. Debt restructuring pennies dropping?
The FT’s James Mackintosh pointed us towards heavy selling in Greek,
S&P says catastrophe has no impact on catastrophe bonds – yet
Fresh from Standard & Poor’s — news that Friday’s whopping Japan earthquake won’t impact six natural catastrophe bonds exposed to, erm, Japan earthquake risk:
Note, the programmes above belong to insurers including Munich and Swiss Re.
Irish secret liquidity, forever
Irish bank borrowings from Europe’s central bank in February — down €10bn, to €116bn (after much collateral swap shenanigans).
Irish bank borrowings from their own central bank, with collateral unacceptable at the ECB — up €20bn,
US Markets Live transcript 11 Mar 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 16:05 on 11 Mar 2011. Participants in this chat were: Cardiff Garcia John McDermott Douglas Cliggott CGGoooood morning from New York
The (Tchenguiz) party must go on…
At Vincent Tchenguiz’s Cannes party on Thursday night, sans Vincent Tchenguiz:
Related link:
Tchenguiz party goes on in Cannes without host - Dan Thomas, FT
Japan’s uncool problem
The big question facing almost everyone in quake-rocked Japan now is…
… What exactly is going on with the country’s nuclear power plants?
While there haven’t been any reported radioactive leaks so far (since most plants shut down automatically during earthquakes) – some trouble is brewing with cooling systems at Tokyo Electric Power’s Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant.
Japan’s earthquake markets, then and now
From Reuters’ financial graphics editor, Scott Barber:
And an FT Alphaville version of Friday’s immediate reaction:
Whither that bottom-right graph from the first collection? Here’s a clue.
Markets Live transcript 11 Mar 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:26 on 11 Mar 2011. Participants in this chat were: bryce.elder Neil Hume, FT Gwen Robinson, FT Izabella Kaminska BEGood morning
Japan, a quake update
FT Alphaville’s Gwen Robinson reports from Tokyo.
It began mid-afternoon — 2.46pm local time, to be precise — with the kind of gentle shaking that one accepts as part of Tokyo life, but rapidly developed into a rolling series of violent upheavals that ravaged northeast Japan and shook up Tokyo and neighbouring towns.
Meanwhile in Europe…
Greece five-year spread to bunds: +15bps 1232bps
Portugal five-year spread to bunds: +18bps to 522bps
And Spanish bonds — well, they were pretty much unchanged on the day.
That’s an odd non-movement given that the biggest eurozone news of the day was Moody’s downgrade of Spain,
Yen reverberations
Here’s the yen reaction after the massive earthquake that struck Japan on Friday.
Yes, that’s down against the US dollar and then, erm, up.
What gives?
Here’s a thought coming from some currency traders on Friday.
Insurance in the ring of fire
How many years has Japan been preparing for the ‘big one’?
On Friday it hit — the 8.9 magnitude quake that hit off the coast of north-eastern Japan is the seventh-largest on record, and far outstrips the 1995 temblor in Kobe.
Japan braces for the big one…
Japan was reeling on Friday after the region northeast of Tokyo was hit by the biggest earthquake since the temblor that devastated the port city of Kobe in 1995.
Buildings were also damaged in Tokyo amid reports of injuries,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Friday,
- Prelude to a panic.
- Liveblogging Japan’s earthquake.
- Bill Ackman’s crusade — the book.
- The good news about Bill Gross’s US debt-exit.
- Return of the deflation trade?
- Oil matters more,
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
Philip Stephens: Time to embrace the Arab world
The EU’s considered response to the revolutions sweeping the Middle East is due at a meeting of its 27 leaders in Brussels on Friday,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- JD Wetherspoon H1 pretax profit down 11 per cent – statement.
- Vopak sees up to €800m EBITDA in 2013 – statement.
- Corporate: Nutreco, Pennon Group,
Further further reading
For the commute home, or while worrying about what Friday may bring,
- ‘What if the stock market was a bond?’
- One hundred ways to reduce the federal deficit.
- A good, basic summary of Saudi Arabia’s importance.
The imbalances-housing boom (dis?)connect
This will sound familiar.
The problem: FX-reserves-hoarding countries, often collectively referred to as “China” (though there are plenty others), bought USDs either to artificially hold down their currencies and boost exports or to defend against the kinds of outflow-driven busts that were prevalent in the late 1990s.
Another voyage round the EM debt galaxy
FT Alphaville recently checked out a presentation on emerging market debt by DB Advisors, the institutional asset management arm of Deutsche Bank.
We’re always a bit wary when we pop in to these buyside discussions — not that we don’t appreciate the information we pick up (and the free coffee),
GCC launches a Sovereign Health Fund for Bahrain and Oman
You’re familiar with SWFs — and the damage they can cause in the wrong hands — but on Thursday Bloomberg carried news of what we’ll call a Sovereign Health Fund (SHF):
The Gulf Cooperation Council plans to set up a fund worth more than $10 billion,
Creaking supranationals
Before young whippersnappers like the EFSF waltzed in on the market for supranational financing, there were the multilateral development banks (MDBs).
You know the institutions we mean: the EIB, EBRD,
Fred the Shred: a super-injunction
Parliamentary privilege is a wonderful thing.
John Hemmings MP asked this in the Commons on Thursday morning (via the Telegraph):
He said: “In a secret hearing this week Fred Goodwin has obtained a super injunction preventing him being identified as a banker.
Spanish bank capital costs – official version
A dozen banks. Including eight cajas. And €15.15bn.
From the Bank of Spain on Thursday:
The Banco de España has today informed credit institutions of its calculations of the additional capital they will need,
‘Securitisation is not that evil after all’
Now there’s a title, from a new BIS working paper, to catch one’s eye.
In it, the authors tackle the issue of information asymmetry in the securitisation process — or the basic idea that the holders or creators of a security might have better information about the investment than potential buyers.