Quick update from S&P on Friday:
Worldwide catastrophe losses in the first quarter of 2011 could set a new record, as losses from the Japanese earthquake and subsequent tsunamis are tallied. Insured losses from last month’s New Zealand earthquake are currently estimated at $10 billion, and still rising. Insured losses from unrest in North Africa and the Middle East are also still being calculated, with the tab at $8 billion to $10 billion and also rising.
Taken together with at least several billion of dollars of insured losses from the series of winter storms that hit many parts of the United States, and an array of other events, worldwide catastrophe losses could top $30 billion in the first quarter of 2011. This compares with preliminary estimates of insured catastrophe losses totaling $37 billion (worldwide) for all of 2010.
To put today’s quake into perspective, consider that the costliest quake on record (so far) is still the Northridge, California earthquake, which occurred in January 1994 and caused $15.3 billion of insured losses (in today’s dollars). Right behind Northridge is last month’s New Zealand quake, with an estimated $10 billion in insured losses. It is likely that today’s quake could top both in terms of insured losses.
Interestingly, the short report — which like others this afternoon accepts that we don’t know the true extent of human and financial losses — points out that it is the smaller reinsurers with equity capital in the $4bn – $7bn range that could have “relatively large exposures to this event”.
Eyes on Lloyd’s on Monday, then.
Related link:
Japan update – FT Alphaville