Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:38 on 7 Mar 2011. Participants in this chat were: bryce.elder Neil Hume, FT
BE
And welcome to Markets Live
BE
We are having a major IT failure this morning.
BE
Neil’s still struggling to log on.
BE
I’ve defaulted to Chrome
BE
Because Firefox no longer works inside the building.
BE
Not that IT acknowledge there’s a problem.
BE
So please talk amongst yourselves while we try to get things up to speed.
NH
Microsoft patch at the weekend
NH
or AV doesn’t work on Firefox
NH
HAVE YOU TRIED REBOOTING
NH
why not have the message on a loop
BE
Hm. The “Switch it on and off again” refrain is not satire.
NH
and this is almost as annoying
NH
as the BBC putting a story up in its website
NH
and not linking to underlying story
NH
because they somehow want to pretend the thing is exclusive
NH
the government giving away the stakes in the banks
NH
and once they are above a certain level we can
NH
and get taxed on the profits
BE
Oh, right. The one that was a press release that came out on Thursday.
BE
Getting your share of the banks – Williams
Today co-chair of the Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Treasury committee Stephen Williams has announced policy proposals to give shares in RBS and Lloyds to the British people.
In his pamphlet “Getting your share of the banks” Stephen Williams argues that the mass distribution of stakes in the banks is the fairest way of giving taxpayers a share of the rewards while ensuring the Treasury returns its investment.
Commenting, Stephen Williams said: “There is danger that when the banks return to the private sector, it is business as usual. There is a general feeling in this country that we need to get something positive in return for the bailout.
“HM Treasury needs to recover the approximately £66 billion it spent bailing out the two banks. There is a general feeling in the country that we need to get something positive in return for the bail out.
“This pamphlet puts forward an idea for giving us all a stake in the banks, for HM Treasury to clear its debt and restore public confidence in the state owned financial institutions.”
ENDS
NH
I can’t find the full statement anywhere
NH
here’s how the plan would work
NH
The radical idea would see most of its stake in the banks shared between 46 million adults on the electoral roll.
NH
A floor would be set so the shares could not be sold until they had passed the price paid by the government.
Individuals would only keep any gains made above that floor price.
The government spent £65.8bn buying shares in the banking giants.
NH
The idea is set out by Stephen Williams, Liberal Democrat MP for Bristol West, in a pamphlet for the think tank Centre Forum.
He said: “There is a danger that when the banks return to the private sector, it is business as usual. There is a general feeling in this country that we need to get something positive in return for the bail-out.
NH
“This plan would recoup the public’s investment and allow the taxpayer to get the benefit from any increased value in the banks.”
NH
Under the proposal, shares would be deposited in individual trading accounts.
BE
Ah right. Stephen Williams.
BE
Something of a vocal type.
BE
Though his blog is rather quiet.
NH
DLC Expert makes a good point
NH
would you get the stock to everyone
BE
You wouldn’t. It’s nonsense.
BE
It’s an unworkable proposal
NH
(And Taxloss is right. pesto should link to source material as well. it’s not their idea)
BE
It’s just noise. Noise for a quiet monday morning that gets Mr Williams’ name in the papers.
NH
how many people in this country have trading accounts?
BE
Um – I did find this out once, back when I had to do personal finance ….
BE
Think it’s about 5% or so.
BE
If you include the folk who have ever had stock under their beds from the privatisations it rises to about a fifth of adults, I think.
BE
Though that’s all by memory – feel free to contradict if you have the data handy, ROTR
NH
I suppose not even worth asking
NH
if there’s been a share price reaction
NH
because as the Treasury says
NH
this is an interesting contribution to the debate
NH
which in true Yes Minister style
NH
means it’s utter nonsense
Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY:LSE): Last: 61.82, down 0.304 (-0.49%), High: 62.19, Low: 61.35, Volume: 25.40m
Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS:LSE): Last: 44.14, up 0.08 (+0.18%), High: 44.22, Low: 43.61, Volume: 29.67m
BE
We should use that phrase more.
BE
“Thanks, Taxloss, that was an interesting contribution to the debate”
NH
just keeping with the banks
NH
he’s only getting £6m this year
NH
doesn’t give you bragging rights
NH
in Canary Wharf wine bar
NH
This was filed by Kleinmanwire
NH
Bob Diamond, the new chief executive of Barclays, will be paid a bonus of £6.5m for last year after agreeing with boardroom colleagues that his payout should reflect continuing pressure on bankers’ pay, I can exclusively reveal.
NH
The surprise cut to Diamond’s bonus for 2010, which will be confirmed by Barclays later today and which includes no up-front cash, comes weeks after Britain’s major banks agreed a peace deal with the Government which included demonstrating ‘restraint’ on pay for senior executives.
NH
what can you do with £6m these days?
BE
Not much. Buy three two-bedroom flats in Notting Hill Gate.
NH
especially when compared to those hedgies
BE
Hm. Ok, let’s push on shall we?
BE
After all, we have actual, proper deals today.
BE
Ok – wider market first?
NH
the situation in Libya looks awful
NH
25 points strong at 6,016
NH
real mixed bag leading us up
Intertek Group PLC (ITRK:LSE): Last: 1,983, up 84 (+4.42%), High: 2,014, Low: 1,930, Volume: 428.26k
Burberry Group PLC (BRBY:LSE): Last: 1,201, up 43 (+3.71%), High: 1,235, Low: 1,185, Volume: 809.96k
Fresnillo Plc (FRES:LSE): Last: 1,639, up 31 (+1.93%), High: 1,649, Low: 1,598, Volume: 603.18k
ARM Holdings PLC (ARM:LSE): Last: 593.50, up 10 (+1.71%), High: 596.01, Low: 579.00, Volume: 1.02m
Pearson (PSON:LSE): Last: 1,107, up 16 (+1.47%), High: 1,110, Low: 1,082, Volume: 721.02k
NH
another great deal today
NH
using our huge cash pile
NH
I’d like to get my hands on more of it
NH
obviously for the site
BE
So what’s the Pearson deal?
Pearson plc is the parent company of the Financial Times, publisher of FT Alphaville.
NH
Education Development International
NH
although its listed in London
BE
Three good buzzwords there.
Education Development International PLC (EDD:LSE): Last: 196.60, up 72.6 (+58.55%), Volume: 205.28k
NH
EDI is a leading provider of education and training qualifications and assessment
services, with a strong reputation for the use of information technology to
administer learning programmes and deliver on-screen assessments.
NH
here’s a quick bit of comment
NH
Pearson are offering a 61% premium to Friday’s close for Education
Development International, valuing the business at £113m.
PEARSON buys another vocational training business.
They are offering a 61% premium to Friday’s close for Education Development
International (EDD LN) – valuing the business at £113m.
EDI is a leading provider of education and training qualifications and assessment
services, with a strong reputation for the use of information technology to
administer learning programmes and deliver on-screen assessments.
Although the premium looks large it equates to PER 14x Sept 2011 but 3.3x
EV/Sales
NH
has been looking at the Williams proposal
NH
an interesting contribution to the debate
NH
I found a few minutes to myself and so decided to read Robert Peston’s splendid blog on the Liberal-Democrat MP Simon Williams’ unorthodox idea to allowing the public – well 45 million of them – to have a direct participation in shares in RBS and Lloyds. He writes brilliantly and objectively. Aesthetically it all sounds great, but is wholly impractical.
NH
How can so many shareholders contribute in an orderly manner to the affairs of this bank? On this basis the taxpayer would take for ever to get his money back. Whereas under current management there is a chance in the next few years, provided regulation is not too draconian and taxation does not lead both banks into penury.
NH
Daft though the idea is, it will inevitably receive great support from the public and the media and as the PM likes to shoot from the hip reacting to the mood of the day, who knows he may well give it more than a glancing Giaconda smile of amusement.
BE
Hm. As Clive James said of Jane Fonda, when you find yourself agreeing with David Buik it’s worth reconsidering your position.
NH
this was flying around earluier
Rolls Royce Group PLC (RR.:LSE): Last: 599.50, down 4.5 (-0.75%), High: 604.00, Low: 595.50, Volume: 589.88k
NH
German automotive group Daimler DAIGn.DE aims to increase its stake in heavy diesel engine maker Tognum TGMG.DE to around 50 percent as part of a joint bid with Rolls-Royce RR.L , two sources close to the talks told Reuters on Monday.
NH
and it’s just been confirmed
NH
Stuttgart – Daimler AG confirms that together with Rolls-Royce, it is in
discussions about the possibility of acquiring the majority of Tognum AG in
equal shares. Currently, constructive discussions with the Supervisory
Board and Management Board of Tognum are being held. Daimler AG already
owns a 28.4% equity interest in Tognum AG, a leading supplier of engines
and powertrains for off-highway applications and of local power generators
(off-highway business).
No final decisions on increasing the equity interest have been made.
BE
Tognum? Should I heard of that? Is it big?
NH
not the foggiest as to what it does
NH
With its two business units, Engines and Onsite Energy & Components, the Tognum Group is one of the world’s leading suppliers of engines and propulsion systems for off-highway applications and of distributed energy systems. These products are based on diesel engines with up to 9,100 kilowatts (kW) power output, gas engines up to 2,150 kW and gas turbines up to 45,000 kW.
The product portfolio of the Engines business unit comprises MTU engines and propulsion systems for ships, for heavy land, rail and defense vehicles and for the oil and gas industry. The portfolio of the Onsite Energy & Components business unit includes distributed energy systems of the brand MTU Onsite Energy and fuel-injection systems from L’Orange. The energy systems comprise diesel engines for emergency standby power, prime power and continuous power, as well as cogeneration power plants based on gas engines and gas turbines that generate both power and heat.
BE
I see. Big industrial play.
BE
Doesn’t this make Rolls more cyclical?
NH
I’d have to ask how they fund it
NH
Rabble were asking about Greece
NH
and the rise in the bond price
NH
Sovereigns – Greece 1010bp (+27), Spain 240bp (+2), Portugal 493bp (+12), Italy 175bp (+2), Ireland 580bp (+5), Belgium 164bp (+2)
NH
and some comment from Markit
NH
Egypt 373bp (+7), Tunisia 193bp (-4), Morocco 180bp (-7), Saudi Arabia 131bp (-1), Bahrain 295bp (-13), Qatar 113bp (0), Lebanon 360bp (-2), Israel 155bp (-2)
Greece continuing to underperform. The bonds are also under pressure – the 1.272 2016 note is trading around 59, the lowest level since the day immediately prior to its bailout in May (source: Markit Evaluated Bonds).
NH
from Gary Jenkins at Evo Securities
NH
This morning Moody’s have downgraded the rating of Greece 3 notches from Ba1 to B1 and assigned a negative outlook. This compares with ratings of BB+ from both S&P and Fitch although the formers’ is on watch for downgrade. The arguments that Moody’s make for their actions are reasonable enough and from my experience of talking to clients the “risk of a post -2013 restructuring might lead the Greek authorities and investors to participate in a voluntary distressed exchange before that time” represent pretty much a consensus view. Although maybe without the use of the word “voluntary”…
NH
Greece has now been downgraded 9 notches in just 440 days by Moody’s from the starting point of A1. To put this into perspective the average number of days that a firm remains at the A1 rating level is 1,647. If we add up all the days that a firm spends on average at the rating levels that Greece has travelled in this time the number we arrive at is 12,627.
NH
As we pointed out in the morning flash the Greek 10 year widened 16bps on Friday to 12.12%, back over 12% for the first time since January, and the 2 year yield widened 59bps to 15.22%, so the market will not be shocked by the Moody’s action. It may raise an eyebrow though at Moody’s “Central Scenario”, which is that “…bondholders will not bear losses.” The speed and severity of the rating movements suggests otherwise..
NH
the Greeks have thrown their toys out of the pram in response
NH
and issue a public tantrum
NH
It gets straight to the point
NH
The rating downgrade announced by Moody’s today is completely unjustified as it does not reflect an objective and balanced assessment of the conditions Greece is presently facing. Furthermore, its timing and the multi-notch nature of the downgrade are incomprehensible and raise a number of questions.
NH
Moody’s focuses its analysis exclusively on the downside risks and while mentioning the significant progress Greece has made in the implementation of its fiscal consolidation and structural reforms programme it does not actually incorporate in its analysis and ratings decision their upside impact on the economy.
NH
The arguments made can in no way be justified by the additional information available since Moody’s last downgrade in June 2010 and the progress achieved since. Instead, the announcement also anticipates the failure of specific policies – while a large number of reforms have already been implemented – including those relating to decisions at the European Union level that have not yet been taken and while critical discussions are ongoing before the March European Council meeting.
NH
Ultimately, Moody’s downgrading of Greece’s debt reveals more about the misaligned incentives and the lack of accountability of credit rating agencies than the genuine state or prospects of the Greek economy.
NH
Having completely missed the build-up of risk that led to the global financial crisis in 2008, the rating agencies are now competing with each other to be the first to identify risks that will lead to the next crisis. At a time when the global economy is fragile and market sentiment is sensitive, unbalanced and unjustified rating decisions such as Moody’s today can initiate damaging self-fulfilling prophecies and certainly strengthen the arguments for tighter regulation of the rating agencies themselves.
BE
I have some sympathy for that argument.
BE
I wasn’t expecting a state to say it, but the basic point is true.
BE
I mean … a nine-notch downgrade inside a year and a bit.
BE
Either they were either wrong to begin with, or are wrong now.
BE
(Unfortunately for Greece, though, it seems more likely that they were wrong to begin with.)
NH
Shall we head to the stock market?
NH
there’s a few deals about today
BE
Sure. Where to start. Kalahari seems to have the Rightards agitated.
NH
I think we mentioned this in the paper the other day
NH
certainly the rumours were doing the rounds
NH
Rio is the obvious suitor
Kalahari Minerals Plc (KAH:LSE): Last: 291.00, up 30.75 (+11.82%), High: 309.00, Low: 257.00, Volume: 1.77m
BE
Rio has a stake, is that right?
BE
Ok. An economic interest.
NH
(Welcome back Monkey. Hope you enjoyed the desert)
NH
comes from the 43% stake in owns in Extract Resources
NH
and Rio wants that stake
NH
because it owns a neighbouring uranmium mine
NH
all small cappy, mining and Aussie
BE
Two other interesting shareholders in there though.
BE
APAC Resources with 12%
BE
Which is Hong Kong mineral investor run by Andrew Ferguson, a fund manager.
NH
I thought that sold sushi
BE
You’re close. Big Japanese minerals investment thing.
NH
for those interested in this stock
NH
here’s a recent note from Ambrian
NH
Kalahari’s share price has not been immune to the ‘blood letting’ in the market for all miners this week; it has slid having initially bounced up on the highly material announcement at the beginning of the week (that Rio Tinto was discussing the possibility of incorporating Rossing South into an expanded view of its own production base in the Husab Area).
This latest news, in conjunction with the Rio Tinto announcement, should have acted as a ‘one-two’ incendiary punch for its valuation, were it not for the unfortunate timing of the current bloodbath in the mining market. We expect that when the market gets a grip of itself again, investors will take stock of the materiality of these announcements and we therefore expect the stock to bounce aggressively when it does.
NH
With Rio Tinto having made a clear indication (earlier this week) that it views Rossing South as a Tier One Asset, we feel it’s only a matter of time before the equity market value also reflects this (note that on this basis, it should have a premium valuation to its peer group, yet other players are still valued higher on an EV/insitu basis).
Assets of this quality come around once in a blue moon and it’s worth comparing the grades and lengths of the recent intercepts (on yet more targets!) against the head grades that Rio Tinto is currently mining… We are talking hits of +800ppm U3O8 over compelling distances vs. Rio’s 300-350ppm at the Rossing Mine.
NH
We are currently reviewing our price target (post a sight visit last month and the anticipation of a formal note in due course), but we retain our BUY recommendation, and would highlight that Kalahari and Extract are now looking cheaper than some uranium plays in their peer group.
We find this extraordinary given the size and quality of the deposit at Rossing South. Rio Tinto’s continuing talks should demonstrate to the market that Rossing South is now clearly being viewed as a Tier One Asset by the players that count in the uranium market.
NH
let’s get back up the market cap scale
NH
and look at Forth Ports
Forth Ports PLC (FPT:LSE): Last: 1,602, up 79 (+5.19%), High: 1,604, Low: 1,549, Volume: 375.88k
NH
it only took three days
NH
but they have confirmed Friday’s bid rumours
BE
Would’ve been nice if they’d confirmed the previous week’s bid rumours.
BE
Or the week before that.
NH
Forth Ports announces that, following an approach from Arcus’ European Infrastructure Fund 1 L.P. (“Arcus”), the Board has held talks resulting in an indicative conditional offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of the Company, not already owned by Arcus, of 1,630 pence in cash per Forth Ports share (plus a final (or second interim) dividend to be paid by Forth Ports in respect of the year ended 31 December 2010 of 20 pence per share to be paid to Forth Ports’ shareholders prior to completion of any offer). On the basis of this indicative proposal, the Board has agreed that Arcus can undertake certain confirmatory due diligence.
BE
The share price graph tells its own story.
NH
one step at a time Bryce
NH
they are learning you really must confirm a bid approach
NH
when there’s speculation and a rising share price
NH
I think they will get there in the end
BE
So – it’s different this time.
BE
they’ve opened the books
BE
There’s a decent chance this deal may actually get done.
NH
last year management wouldn’t open to the books to £14
NH
to £16.30 and the dividend of 20p
NH
I guess there will be a small bump
NH
to reflect the worth of the property business
NH
and FPT disappears from the stock market
BE
So the bidder’s Arcus.
BE
Which was Babcock & Brown
BE
The the infrastructure fund, and formerly part of the Northstream consortium.
BE
(Seen it reported as “leading” the Northstream consortium, which may not have been the way John Whittaker saw it …)
BE
Any notes on this one?
NH
one of the few people to cover the company
NH
here’s what Gerald Khoo
NH
Forth Ports has announced that it has received an indicative conditional offer for the group from Arcus European Infrastructure Fund 1 LP. The potential offer is priced at 1630p per share plus a final or second interim dividend of 20p per share to be paid prior to completion of any offer. Forth Ports has agreed to allow Arcus to conduct due diligence.
Although the potential offer price of 1650p is only an 8.3% premium to the previous close, we note that the Forth Ports share price has been unusually strong of late (+14.0% over the past month). Arcus was part of the Northstream consortium that made an unsuccessful approach to Forth Ports a year ago, and on that occasion the Forth Ports board consistently refused on open the books for due diligence. Although opening the books is still a long way from recommending an offer, we believe this gives an indication that the board considers the indicated price to be sufficiently high to not dismiss it out of hand.
NH
Given the substantial pre-existing shareholding of Arcus (c.23.5%) we consider it unlikely that an alternative suitor for Forth Ports will emerge. This is likely to limit the upside to the current indicated terms, although it is possible that Arcus may have to offer a small additional premium in order to secure a recommendation from the board.
Our previous 1340p target price was based upon our ongoing valuation of the group’s Ports business and our assessment of the likely uplift to the external valuation of the group’s development landbank due to be released at the forthcoming FY results (22 March). Although 1650p does not feel like a knockout offer, at first glance it appears to offer a balance between a premium for the Ports business and a reasonable current valuation of the landbank and property assets. A higher valuation could be justified, but would rely upon bullish assumptions on the landbank and renewable energy opportunities.
NH
We would expect shareholders to be keen to see the updated landbank valuation (and the results) before deciding on whether or not to accept an offer. In the meantime, we have increased our target price to 1650p with our recommendation remaining Neutral.
BE
Ta. Looks all done, as you say.
NH
Intertek has bought something
NH
the market seems to like both
Intertek Group PLC (ITRK:LSE): Last: 1,983, up 84 (+4.42%), High: 2,014, Low: 1,930, Volume: 509.16k
NH
health and safety play this company
NH
testing and certificiation
NH
to make sure that stuffed toy
NH
won’t kill you with some toxic fume
BE
That’s right. Testing lead-painted toys and the like.
BE
Plus a bit of mining and suchlike on the side.
BE
Decent business, hefty multiple.
BE
So what have they bought?
NH
Moody, a leading energy asset integrity and certification unit
NH
make of that, what you will
NH
as in that’s a bit moody
NH
some exposure to oil & gas
NH
this from Seymour Pierce
NH
Along with its results, Intertek has announced the US$730m (£450m) cash acquisition of Moody International. The company provides technical and safety services to the Oil & Gas, Power, Mining, Construction, Engineering, Chemical, and other heavy industries, as well as management system certification to all industry sectors. It has been acquired on a very full EV/ EBITDA exit multiple of 13.5x (cf Intertek 11.7x) but it is an important strategic move for Intertek since it considerably enhances its global position in technical safety services and systems certification.
NH
some detail on the results
NH
The results for FY10 were comfortably above our expectations and those of the market. Having started cautiously, the group returned to high single digit organic growth in the second half and the full year organic growth outturn was 7.7%. This is now expected to continue into 2011. In 2010, constant currency revenue improved by 9% to £1374.2m and EBITA increased by 6% to £227.5m, against our £219.4m estimate. This resulted in an 11% increase in adjusted pretax profit to £211.9m against our estimate of £207.3m and the consensus of £209.8m. AdjEPS increased by 10% to 89.4p against our estimate of 88.1p and the market consensus of 89.1p. The dividend was up by 10%, at 28.1p. Year end net debt fell to £169.7m from £201.4m
NH
The outlook statement is somewhat more optimistic than at the same point last year, although the acquisition of Moody will temporarily stall margin expansion. Intertek benefits from the defensive qualities of its business model, favourable long-term market trends and the broad geographic and operational spread of activities.
At the divisional level, the Oil, Chemical and Agricultural business saw reasonable underlying growth with revenues, up by 8.7% at CER with EBITA up by 16.7% at £51.0m. Consumer goods saw revenue growth of 5.2% and EBITA up by 1.8% at £109.2m. Commercial and Electrical revenue was up by 10.0% with a 7.0% increase in EBITA to £38.2m.
NH
Looking forwards, revenue growth will continue to be driven by regulatory issues and environmental legislation, even if consumer demand tails off due to economic slowdown. We leave our FY11 forecasts unchanged with adjusted EPS expected to grow by around 10%
The shares on a prospective multiple of 20.0x and they are rated in-line with their closest competitor, SGS. The acquisition will not be earnings enhancing in the short term but is a good strategic move. We move to OUTPERFORM form BUY with a target price of 2000p [BUY since 25/01/11].
NH
20 times prospective earnings
BE
(@Monkey: yes. But they only use orphans so it’s humanitarian.)
BE
Um – as I say, it’s an expensive sector.
NH
From one set of results to another
Inmarsat PLC (ISAT:LSE): Last: 606.50, down 78 (-11.40%), High: 619.00, Low: 587.00, Volume: 7.88m
NH
that Harbinger was allowed to rip up that lock up agreement
NH
and sell 10% of the company at 635p
BE
They do. Disappointing across all divisions.
BE
And the outlook’s a lot duller than folk were expecting.
NH
with all those correspondent
NH
reporting on the troubles
BE
Yes indeed, they’ve had a run-up on the basis of it being a good play on WWIII.
NH
I think our reports use Irridium
BE
Do we? I think they’re more expensive.
BE
Inmarsat basically gives you the handset for free
BE
And locks you into an airtime contract.
BE
The standard mobile phone model, basically.
BE
(Or, when I say “free,” I think it’s about £300)
BE
(Which is less than half the price of the competition.)
BE
Anyway, here’s a summary of the results.
BE
Sales below estimates. Q4 2010 sales fell short of expectations at $ 292m (vs
$ 306m for Oddo and $ 308m for the consensus), i.e. an increase of 8.4% vs.
Q4 2009. Q4 2010 sales were dented by the substitution of the voice by email
activity and increase competition, from traditional players such as Iridium but also
others like SES and Eutelsat on VSAT, in our view.
BE
This is from Oddo, as you could’ve guessed.
BE
EBITDA below estimates. The EBITDA margin was below expectations at 58.8%
(vs. our estimate of 58% and 57% for the consensus). Q4 EBITDA was below
expectations at $ 171m (vs. $ 176m estimated).
BE
Inmarsat has issued mixed 2011 guidance. On the one hand, organic growth is
disappointing at 2-4% (vs. 7% estimated), due to 1) the absence of a strong rebound
for the core business activities such as Maritime, and 2) an unfavourable comparison
base in the terrestrial segment after the earthquake in Haiti at the beginning of 2010,
which does not appear to have been offset by instability in the Middle East and North
Africa. On the other hand, the contribution from LightSquared (4G project in the US)
should be solid in 2011 with anticipated sales of $ 187m to $ 207m (vs. our current
estimate of $ 157.5m). Our 2011 sales estimate is not expected to change much (with
LightSquared offsetting the core business), but we expect a downward revision from
the consensus (forecast of $ 1.4bn vs our $ 1.37bn estimate).
BE
This morning’s publication revealed Q4 2010 earnings that fell below expectations and
mixed guidance, bearing in mind the lack of a rebound at the core business activities
(maritime and terrestrial). That said, the group has scope to return cash to
shareholders beyond the call of its guidance for a 10% dividend per year, if visibility on
LightSquared improves.
BE
And a bit more from Morgan Stanley
BE
Quick comment – weak Q4 results: Inmarsat has
reported Q4 revenues of $292.1mn (6.0% miss vs css),
EBITDA of $171.8mn (-0.5% miss vs css). Part of the
revenue miss is due to the recognition of LightSquared
revenues – consensus expected $10-15mn, but only
$7.5mn was booked in Q4. However, results at the core
MSS business (+1% in Q4 from +6% in Q3) were still
disappointing: Maritime slowed to +0.1% (from +2.8% in
Q3) driven by lower Fleetbroadband ARPU and also
intensified VSAT competition. Aero slowed to +17%
(from +38% in Q3) and lease revenues growth
deteriorated sharply to -7% from +13% in Q3. However,
Land revenues were stable at +1% (from -5.3% in Q3).
Final dividend of $c22.69 was as expected and in-line
with the company’s 10% YoY growth objective.
BE
Outlook statement: target +2-4% MSS growth for
2011: This compares to consensus at +6% (MS +4%)
and mid-term guidance of +5-7% with maritime to be
constrained by Fleetbroadband and increased VSAT
competition; and aero by lower level of activity and
budget constraints.
BE
No update on spectrum: Inmarsat recognised $8mn in
proceeds from LightSquared (Phase 1) in Q4 vs $9.8mn
in Q3. Between $80-100mn will be recognised in 2011
from Phase 1, on top of $107mn in Phase 2 proceeds.
The key issues for LightSquared remains i) satisfying
the FCC’s GPS interference concerns by June 15 and;
ii) securing an anchor tenant/ equity investor.
BE
Stock view: We keep our UW rating based on the
following possible negatives on the horizon: i) GPS
spectrum interference concerns potentially more
problematic than widely anticipated, particularly for
existing Aero services; ii) Subdued growth over time at
the core business, especially with VSAT providers
aggressively targeting Inmarsat’s high-ARPU subs.
NH
Time for a bit of small cap corner I think
NH
one story caught me eye today
Cluff Gold Plc (CLF:LSE): Last: 109.50, down 11.25 (-9.32%), High: 113.50, Low: 101.00, Volume: 1.14m
NH
completely different from the Reuters ticker
NH
on which this system is based
NH
shut one of their mines
NH
Angovia mine in Cote d’Ivoire
NH
due to the political situation
BE
Tricky place to do business.
BE
Not sure I’d be comfortable owning anything there.
NH
Critical supplies such as fuel, explosives, cement and cyanide have been difficult to attain due to the political instability
NH
which is not really a surprise
NH
is someone stock piling pills?
NH
this obviously has some read across for African Barrick
NH
which has ops in the country
African Barrick Gold Plc (ABG:LSE): Last: 571.00, up 5 (+0.88%), High: 579.50, Low: 566.50, Volume: 132.80k
BE
Well, Cote D’Ivorie’s been spiralling since the disputed election three months ago.
BE
I’m not sure how much is in the ABG valuation already.
BE
And, of course, it’s FTSE review day tomorrow
NH
expect to see big positive note tomorrow
NH
on possible relegation candidates
NH
will all be decided on the close of play prices tomorrow
NH
Merrill pushing them today
Bunzl Plc (BNZL:LSE): Last: 735.50, down 1 (-0.14%), High: 737.50, Low: 729.50, Volume: 194.10k
NH
I have a quick bit of comment on Cluff
NH
from Seymour Pierce again
NH
they are making a good contribution today
NH
Cluff has announced that it is temporarily suspending its operations at its Angovia mine in Cote d’Ivoire, due to the political situation in the country making it difficult to sustain operations. Critical supplies such as fuel, explosives, cement and cyanide have been difficult to attain due to the political instability
NH
The mine is significantly the smaller of Cluff’s two operations having produced only 20koz in 2010; the company’s Kalsaka mine in Burkina Faso produced 74koz last year and the company reports that activity at that site is proceeding as normal. All in all, the company expects that any shortfall in production and impact on cashflow will be limited, but clearly this is a function of the situation on the ground in Cote d’Ivoire. With production continuing at Kalsaka and significant exploration ongoing around that mine and at Baomahun in Sierra Leone there is plenty to keep the Cluff story interesting in addition to the continuing strength of the gold price. BUY.
NH
also on political risk
NH
there have been some interesting developments in Guinea
NH
advising President Alpha Conde
NH
Guinean Government might become a minority shareholder in all mining contracts
NH
this could affect Bellzone Minerals
NH
which got a $230m fund raising
NH
out the door last week
NH
the secondary markets is still booming
Bellzone Mining PLC (BZM:LSE): Last: 81.50, down 2 (-2.40%), High: 83.50, Low: 81.00, Volume: 2.28m
BE
And Tullow has assets out there I think.
BE
Oh – I was talking about Guinea.
NH
some comment on this situation
NH
from Canaccord Genuity
NH
The claim in the weekend’s FT was that Guinea is planning a comprehensive review of its mining licences that could disrupt a US$1.35 billion iron ore agreement between Chinalco and Rio Tinto, a US$2.5 billion iron ore acquisition by Brazil’s Vale and a range of smaller mining deals. The article goes on to suggest that, according to reports emanating from an Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) conference in Paris on Thursday, the Government of Guinea will become a minority holder in these projects and that mining companies operating in Guinea will have to sign up to EITI principles and agreements.
NH
Our interest primarily lies in the potential impact of these suggestions on Bellzone Mining and its Mining Convention, which outlines and approves development of Bellzone’s Kalia project. We are also interested in any impact of EITI principles on Bellzone’s Chinese Partners, the China International Fund (CIF). The majority of the content of this article however is not new but three aspects seem to have gained prominence over recent days – the involvement of George Soros, government participation and re-commitment to EITI.
NH
What is not new is that it is perfectly right and proper for all democratically elected governments to review all agreements reached prior to democracy, especially if the prior regime was seen to have been autocratic or perhaps corrupt.
Also what is not new, and also right and proper, is that governments everywhere should manage their mineral (or hydrocarbon) endowment in the best interests of the people of the country and this means, among other things, finding the best balance between investment incentive and financial return. Failing to do this in a balanced and transparent manner is at the heart of much of the political upheaval in North Africa and is likely to spread to similar regimes elsewhere.
NH
In our view, it is too easy to misinterpret steps by governments towards either of these two right and proper objectives as somehow negative for the industry in their countries, when in fact they are placing the indigenous mining industry on a far more sustainable footing for longer-term development and placing the government on a more secure and higher moral ground in the eyes of the people and investors.
However, the bit we do not understand is why George Soros, a man who has made fortunes from secretive investment strategies and deals, is advising the Government of Guinea on transparency. Our guess would be that there is a bigger mineral prize in all this and not just the “street cred” earned from advising an undeveloped – but mineral-rich – West African nation towards better management of its resources.
NH
The fact the EITI also demands greater transparency from the companies entrusted with development of Guinea’s resources has not been lost on Rio Tinto’s CEO. Tom Albanese made his position on this issue abundantly clear two weeks ago in a meeting with key analysts. He was indicating the need for mining companies to spend much greater time in CEO-to-government level discussion in order to achieve higher levels of trust and transparency.
BE
Oh, before leaving smallcap corner we should mention Chariot
Chariot Oil and Gas Ltd (CHAR:LSE): Last: 274.25, down 31.75 (-10.38%), High: 283.75, Low: 265.25, Volume: 3.32m
NH
billions of barrels off the coast of Nambia?
BE
Share placing at 250p.
BE
Bringing in a couple of institutions to augment its rather excitable and rampy shareholder base.
NH
done the share placing
NH
that former Goldmam bloke
BE
Oh. Well here’s Ambrian to give it a push.
BE
Subject to shareholder approval on 1 April, Chariot will have successfully raised sufficient funds to ensure that at least two exploration wells will be drilled in its licences over the next 12-18 months.
The quality and extent of Chariot’s geological data coverage over its licence areas is second to none. Processing and subsequent interpretation of its proprietary 3D data has generated a portfolio of 12 drill-ready prospects, and we suggest that a commercial discovery at any one of them would be a ‘game-changer’.
BE
As a pure-play exploration company with over 10bn barrels of net prospective resources, Chariot stands out amongst its small-company peers, and over the months ahead should provide investors with exposure to some of the most high-impact exploration drilling of all the London-listed E&Ps.
We also feel that the proposed placing increases Chariot’s control over its own future by enhancing management’s position during the ongoing farm-out process. By choosing to raise sufficient funds to carry out exploration drilling without being entirely reliant on farm-outs (although farming down is still the intention), Chariot is ensuring that — in the case of success — shareholders will sustain the least amount of dilution whilst maintaining the greatest amount of upside exposure.
NH
right, the alternative view to all that
NH
were forced to do a cash call
NH
because they can’t find a farm out partner
NH
because it’s all too risky
NH
that’s not my thinking
NH
so don’t shoot the messenger
A term of endearment used to describe BB share promoters on FT Alphaville.
NH
CHAR this morning announces a £90m ($146m) equity fundraising at 250p/share, a hefty 18% discount to Friday’s close. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that there was a good chance of a sizeable fundraising happening soon, hence today’s news is no huge surprise. The cash will be used to fund the group’s initial drilling activities on its offshore Namibian acreage, including the drilling of a well on its 100%-owned Northern acreage ($65m), a second well on its 50%-owned Southern acreage ($25m net CHAR), as well as the acquisition of 5,000 sq km of 3D seismic ($50m). The first well is due to commence drilling in Q4 this year, although I’m not aware that a rig has actually been signed yet.
BE
(LJ: We stand corrected. Thanks.)
NH
I’d be cautious of getting involved with this one, I suspect that the reason the group has gone to the equity market for cash is that it has not been able to attract decent farm-out terms from industry – CHAR has had a data-room open since February 2010. The group maintains that it will conclude a farm-out deal by the end of this month, I’ll be interested to see the terms. Whilst the group claims it is targeting over 10bn barrels of prospective resources (net) across 12 exploration leads, these all appear extremely high-risk, and the stock remains a long-term sell in my view.
NH
(Thank LJ. We really meant RRS

)
NH
a few things to whip through
NH
the hedgies keep buying
NH
British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC (BSY:LSE): Last: 833.00, up 8 (+0.97%), High: 833.75, Low: 826.50, Volume: 797.63k
British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC (BSY:LSE): Last: 833.00, up 8 (+0.97%), High: 833.75, Low: 826.50, Volume: 797.63k
NH
seen some filings today
BE
Hedgies filling their boots, I assume?
BE
There were plenty on Friday.
BE
All buying up to 820p.
NH
think they were buying in the 820p’s
NH
trying to call Rupert’s bluff
BE
That’s what I’d have thought
BE
But every arb and every hedge seems to think there’s limited downside here.
NH
underlying business performing well
BE
And the more hot money on the list, the better the maths gets for forcing more cash out of Rupert.
NH
and I don’t buy this threat
NH
because the price of Sky is likely only to go
NH
here’s some desk comment
NH
Again, plenty of press, and shareholders talking their own book with regard to price B Sky B ends up going out at. Sunday Times saying Fidelity asking for 950p, Observer picks up on similar story at the same price. The Telegraph says that although neither News Corp nor Murdoch are keen on paying up, and that cost and revenue synergies are zero – Fitch do say that NWS US could pay up to 900p and still keep its BBB+ credit rating.
Other stories obviously coming from the News Corp side suggest that now the best thing to do would be to walk away, given how much excitement there is around price, and return at a later date knowing they have regulatory clearance in hand. FT backs this view up suggesting this is not a must do deal for Murdoch at any price.
This is both sides obviously talking their own book, and I expect it will continue to happen until the end of the public consultation period which expires on 21st March. We traded c 18mm shares the last 2 days of last week, and are still in touch both ways this morning.
BE
I’ve still not seen any convincing work as to where Sky would be trading without the bid.
BE
The process has been going on so long it’s hard to know what’s now premium.
NH
let’s bring today’s session to a close
NH
we didn’t have time to mention
Burberry Group PLC (BRBY:LSE): Last: 1,202, up 44 (+3.80%), High: 1,235, Low: 1,185, Volume: 897.81k
NH
which is up in the wake of the staggering price
BE
Though they’re not really that comparable.
BE
Which is shockingly high margin.
NH
This represents an acquisition multiple of 32.3x 2011E EV/EBIT and
3.3x EV/sales (sector ex-Hermes on 12.4x and 2.7x, respectively).
NH
but they are having to pay up
NH
for an area they are weak in
BE
Yes – agree – that’s an absolutely startling price.
NH
here’s a good note from Citi
NH
which explains why the Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing Paid what he did
NH
A long-awaited deal in hard luxury, but at a significant market and sector
premium — LVMH announced the acquisition of a controlling stake (51%) in
Bulgari by issuing 16.5 million LVMH shares and swapping them with 152.5 million
Bulgari shares owned by the family shareholders Paolo and Nicola Bulgari. At the
same time, LVMH is also launching a public purchase offer today for the remaining
49% of the capital at €12.25 per share, a ~60% premium to Bulgari’s closing price
on Friday. This represents an acquisition multiple of 32.3x 2011E EV/EBIT and
3.3x EV/sales (sector ex-Hermes on 12.4x and 2.7x, respectively).
NH
Rationale — With only ~€1bn in sales and ~€130m in EBIT in Watches & Jewelry
(5% and 3% of 2010 group EBIT, respectively), LVMH had never been able to reach
critical size and industry average margins in hard luxury activities. The acquisition of
Bulgari could enable LVMH to generate cost synergies in manufacturing, distribution
and advertising in Watches and Jewelry. We would expect LVMH’s management
team to be able to drive cost efficiencies at Bulgari and lift its below-industry margins
of 10% (2011E) to historical margins of 15% in the medium-term.
NH
Financial implications — We estimate this transaction to be ~3-4% dilutive to
LVMH 2011E EPS and ~4-5% dilutive to its 2012E EPS. After this transaction,
LVMH’s balance sheet will remain sound at around €4.7bn 2010 estimated net debt
implying net debt/EBITDA of 0.8x. The scenario of a share buyback or special
dividend in 2011E now looks unlikely, in our view. Finally, LVMH’s Chairman Bernard
Arnault’s control in LVMH is likely to be diluted by ~3% after the deal.
NH
Management implications — The Bulgari family will be entitled to two seats on the
board of LVMH. Bulgari’s CEO Francesco Trapani will become the head of LVMH’s
Watches & Jewelry division in 2H11 and a member of the Executive Committee.
NH
and a bit on read across
NH
Sector implications — Mid-cap luxury stocks, such as Burberry or Tod’s, could
benefit from LVMH’s move, as it might signal renewed M&A activity in the sector.
However, we believe that there is one less potential natural buyer now (LVMH).
The move also implies that a change to the Christian Dior holding structure (CD
owns 42% of LVMH) is unlikely near-term.
NH
Luxury sector de-rating creates buying opportunity, Buy rating maintained —
The luxury sector has underperformed c12% relative to European equities year-to
date, and has been de-rated 5% in absolute terms. LVMH shares are down 10%
YTD, the worst performer in our coverage universe. Key investor concerns seem
to be about relative valuation, fears of inflation and property market collapse in
China, currency, and challenging comparatives. We argue that LVMH is less
cyclical than commonly perceived. The highly cyclical activities (Champagne,
Watches, DFS) account for just 20% of consolidated EBIT, while Louis Vuitton appears to be the most defensive brand in the industry (over 50% of group profits)
reflecting its strong product offering, unique distribution and pricing strategy and
unrivalled communication. A valuation exercise based on the value of the Diageo
put option, peer multiples for the three smaller divisions, and 1x sales for the
smaller fashion brands implies a residual valuation of 17.1x 2011E P/E for the
Vuitton brand, which looks good value vs. peers on 18.2x. Buy/Medium Risk (1M)
rating maintained for now, target price €130.
BE
Ok – we’re through 90 minutes.
BE
Is it time to wind up yet?
NH
has updated the market
NH
The Company has noted the recent increase in its share price.
As announced on 29 November, the shareholders at a General Meeting approved that the Company adopt a new investment strategy and change its name from Zest Group Plc to Rare Earth Minerals Plc.
The new investment strategy allows the Company to seek to acquire a diverse portfolio of direct and indirect interests in exploration and producing rare earth minerals and/or metals projects and assets.
The Company is currently looking at a number of potential investment opportunities in line with its investment strategy. The most progressed of these is a moderate investment that if concluded would result in an investment of approximately 12% of the Company’s current available funds which currently stand at approximately £400,000. However, there is no assurance that any of these opportunities will result in an investment by Company.
Rare Earth Minerals PLC (REM:LSE): Last: 1.15, up 0.179 (+18.45%), High: 1.15, Low: 1.15, Volume: 27.96m
NH
what on earth explains the recent move in Yell?
Yell Group PLC (YELL:LSE): Last: 8.73, up 1.23 (+16.40%), High: 9.90, Low: 7.32, Volume: 26.26m
BE
Can’t imagine it’s anything else, surely.
NH
you are probably right
NH
when is the strategic review due?
BE
Um. Once a year, every year, until it dies.
BE
Why does he say his name’s “Day V Lately” at the pay-off?
BE
Whose name is “Day V”?
BE
Anyway, please, no more.
BE
Have a good Monday, everyone.