March, 2011
Ireland: does the fire sale start here?
You’ve already had the stress test results (more on those in a moment), here’s the Irish finance minister’s statement regarding what survives of Ireland’s banking system.
In short: a rump Bank of Ireland,
Who won the energy speech?
It would be easy to brush off President Obama’s “Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future” initiative and associated speech yesterday as the obligatory promise to lower dependence on oil in response to the latest surge in gasoline prices.
Crisis market metrics
Or, how well did the market do in judging banks’ health during the financial crisis? How accurate was the market stigma surrounding banks that might be tapping the Federal Reserve for help?
And so on.
Ireland’s stress test results [updated]
Here’s the full report, click image to open:
The bank recapitalisation grand total: €24bn
Allied Irish Banks: €13.3bn
Bank of Ireland: €5.2bn
EBS: €1.5bn
Irish Life & Permanent:
A first look through the Fed’s discount window
You’ve had the Primary Credit Dealer Facility data — ready yourself for the discount window stuff.
On Thursday the Federal Reserve released some 25,000 documents laying out just who tapped the Fed’s famous overnight facility between August 2007 and March 2010.
Viva, O’Vegas
As we wait for Ireland’s latest bank stress test results (due within half an hour at pixel time), a tidbit on methodology from the Irish Times:
BlackRock, the consultants hired by the Central Bank to verify the tests,
Why is the Vix so low?
This is the Vix — globally respected barometer of market fear:
But now count the peaks of fear.
One: International financial crisis. Two: Flash crash/European sovereign debt escapade. Three:
Crop shops
A chart from Citi showing how this morning’s crop report fared against expectations:
And a bit of commentary, emphasis ours:
USDA’s Prospective Plantings report released this morning has farmers planting slightly more acreage for corn and wheat than expected,
Sokol speaks…
… and when he looks back at Thursday’s interview with CNBC it might be with some regret.
When you are in a hole, stop digging etc…
Via Reuters:
SOKOL SAYS “I DIDN’T HAVE ANY INSIDE INFORMATION”
Lessons from the People’s Repository of China
Countries of the world take note!
When faced with falling demand for one of your nation’s top domestically produced crops (versus growing commodity import bills) follow the example of China. Stockpile!
The benefits of stockpiling can include:
What lurks in Anglo Irish
What with being dead and all, Anglo Irish will probably not have a starring role in Ireland’s fifth attempt at recapitalising banks, due at 4.30pm (Dublin time) this Thursday.
That would be a shame.
Why the Chinese copper financing scheme is a big deal
FT Alphaville has recently focused on the rise in commodity-backed financing schemes in China as a response to the People’s Bank of China’s tightening measures, which shut credit off to many small- and medium-sized companies in the country,
Trade the weather, not consensus?
Just an idea, of course.
But it comes via JPMorgan’s Seamus Mac Gorain, and it’s part of a 12-page study covering more than a decade of intraday trading data around big economic releases.
Here’s his thinking:
Markets Live transcript 31 Mar 2011
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:11 on 31 Mar 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Tony Tassell NHHola Rabble NHwelcome to ML NHon Irish stress test day
The Cable & Wireless boardroom bust-up
What is going on at Cable & Wireless Worldwide?
We ask the question because there seems to be some confusion over what really triggered the resignation of highly-regarded finance director, Tim Weller,
The UK’s vanishing productivity (and the data’s gone too)
FT Alphaville loves data mysteries — and there’s something particularly ironic about fourth-quarter UK productivity data not being, erm, produced on time.
Anyway, the UK’s Office for National Statistics said earlier this week that the Q4 productivity numbers scheduled for Wednesday would be delayed until April 7 because of “data quality issues.”
Portugal and Greece, deserted debt markets
First — a friend of FT Alphaville points out that Portugal’s 10-year bond yields have now breached LCH.Clearnet’s famous ‘margin call’ spread for the first time.
The threshold is 450bps: the spread was 454bps at Wednesday’s close.
Japan’s hedgie trap
Some more insights into the (financial) traps and machinations of Japan’s post-March 11 markets and their impact on investors — this time from the FT’s Sam Jones, formerly of the FT Alphaville’s parish.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Thursday,
- Debt, the first five thousand years.
- Phantom bidding, American Airlines edition.
- Buffett’s ‘Mr. Fix-It’ resigns.
- What is this bond wonk saying?
- Beware of scatter plots bearing short samples.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
Jürgen Stark: ECB cannot tailor monetary policy for individual countries
Several commentators have recently pointed to the challenging economic position of some eurozone countries as a factor that should or would influence the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions in the near future,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Thursday,
- Hennes & Mauritz Q1 results undershoot market forecasts — statement and statement.
- 2010 net profit at Rusal more than triples — statement.
- Taylor Wimpey announces sale of North American business for £595m — statement.
Lingering questions regarding Sokol’s resignation
By Cardiff Garcia and John McDermott
Sorry for the back-to-back press release based posts, but we think you’ll agree this is big news. And a mighty odd release it is, too. Brief commentary to follow:
NY Fed to AIG: thanks, but no
So that’s that. Looks like $15.7bn just doesn’t go as far as it used to. Emphasis ours:
The Federal Reserve today announced that it has declined American International Group’s (AIG) offer to purchase all of the assets in Maiden Lane II LLC (MLII).
Further further reading
For the commute home, where there is pent up demand for your arrival,
- Money helps you remember stuff you find boring.
- The CBO on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
- “Be wary of economists wielding short samples.”
Takeovers in US local government?
Do you want the good news or the bad news first?
Good news, really? Fine then.
Census data out Tuesday evening showed that aggregate level US state and local revenues continue to pick up. Q4 2010 revenues were up 2.2 per cent on Q4 2009,
Rally monkey declares mission accomplished for QE2
“I do think that our policies have contributed to a stronger stock market, just as they did in March of 2009,” he said, referring to the Fed’s initial round of quantitative easing.
He pointed out that since he signaled the Fed would likely unveil QE2 during a speech in Jackson Hole,
Going small(er) in emerging markets
Fresh from our inbox, a chart and some commentary from State Street Global Advisors:
According to the team’s research (see Chart one), since January 1997 BRICs have underperformed a group of smaller countries within the emerging world.
Meme competition! Maestro edition
Like a caption competition, but better.
An idea shamelessly cadged off Henry Farrell at Crooked Timber, although since it’s in aid of kicking Alan Greenspan, why not?
Henry thinks this euphemistic part of the ex-Maestro’s op-ed on Dodd-Frank needs immortalising as an internet meme: