Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
Ian Bremmer: J-curve hits the Middle East 
No one could predict that the death of a Tunisian vegetable vendor would spark revolts across the Middle East, threatening regimes from Libya to Iran, writes the president of Eurasia Group. But while these shockwaves might seem chaotic, they are in fact only the latest example of a powerful political phenomenon: the J-curve, or the dip in stability as countries move from closed to open societies. The concept also explains why many of the region’s governments are now caught in what may prove to be an inescapable trap.
Richard Waters: Bubble trouble over internet values
Talk of bubble trouble is rife again in Silicon Valley, writes the FT’s US West Coast editor. Private internet companies with names barely known in the financial world a year ago are suddenly the focus of heated price-talk – even if they have yet to prove they can raise money at some of these lofty levels.
Richard Milne: Yield-hungry investors should get real
Look back at asset returns for 2010 as a whole and investors look to have had it easy, writes the FT’s markets editor. Equities, bonds and commodities all did well, with the S&P 500 returning 15 per cent, corporate bonds 9 and gold 27 per cent. But delve a little deeper and the job of making a decent return was much trickier.
Peter Orszag: Chance can be a better way to save
In all the recent debate over budget deficits, few people have noticed that America has started saving again, writes Orszag, vice chairman of banking at Citigroup and former director of the US Office of Management and Budget. Personal saving in the US has risen from 1.4 per cent of income in 2005 to 5.8 per cent in 2010, and new data this week from the Fed confirm that higher savings rates are continuing. A dramatic further increase in saving would harm the recovery. But as the world gradually emerges from the economic downturn, global rebalancing means the US and Europe must save more over time. Savings lotteries, like Britain’s popular Premium Bonds, can provide an intriguing way forward.
Gapper blog: Name an exchange and win champagne!
Some highly paid consultants will soon be on the job, but FT readers should be able to save some money by coming up with something suitable, says the FT’s Gapper, announcing that he will award a bottle of champagne for the best suggestion (two if it is actually adopted). He proffers some suggestions.
Beyond brics: China raises hopes, fears in Latin America
Fear and loathing about Chinese investors playing in America’s “backyard” stepped up a notch this week with the FT’s report on a Chinese proposal to build a railway across Colombia to rival the Panama Canal, writes Naomi Mapstone. China’s rampant appetite for Latin America’s natural resources contributed to the region’s buoyancy throughout global economic recession and to relatively new stability in countries such as Peru. Its desire for coal in particular presents an opportunity to Colombia. But in the great playground of international trade, there are swings and roundabouts.
Money supply: Mervyn King, stuff happens
As the FT reported on Wednesday, the Bank of England’s inflation report confirmed market expectations of a series of rate rises starting in the second quarter, writes the FT’s economics editor Chris Giles. Of course, Mervyn King, the governor, did not say the Bank would raise rates. No one sensible ever expected him to. What you can say is that the latest inflation forecasts are consistent with interest rate rises and inconsistent with interest rates staying on hold. The Bank has therefore verified the market expectations of rate rises, although not quite some of the more wild predictions that the MPC was just wanting a March rate rise to come as a surprise.
Lex on why Merkel’s adviser would be a good choice for ECB
Jens Weidmann will need to be a man of the past, the present and the future. The new president-designate of the Bundesbank, and, therefore, a key voice at the European Central Bank, has been plucked from obscurity (as economic adviser to Angela Merkel, the chancellor). He could be a good choice for an almost impossible job.
Analysis: IT – mind games
The history of artificial intelligence is full of false dawns, writes the FT’s Richard Waters. Attempts to build machines capable of emulating human thought seem only to prove that the subtlety of the human mind cannot be reduced to an algorithm. Yet with advances such as the quiz show-playing system, big steps are being made in techniques closely linked to machine intelligence. This could lead to a far better informed level of computer-assisted decision-making, in areas ranging from medical diagnostics to financial trading.