Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:39 on 9 Feb 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Joseph Cotterill bryce.elder
NH
FT AV’s daily markets chat
NH
and you will all be relieved to know
NH
Bryce can’t make it this morning
NH
something about an outbreak of chicken pox
NH
so Joseph has very kindly agreed to step in
JC
Chickenpox sounds nasty
NH
the markets wait for no one
NH
Before we look at the wider market
NH
The euro fell against the dollar on Wednesday after sources said Bundesbank head Axel Weber will not be a candidate to replace Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank. [ID:nBAE003882].
The euro fell to a session low of $1.3612 from around $1.3645 before the news.
Weber who has been considered a front-runner to succeed Trichet when his term expires in October, is regarded as a hawk on inflation, but often finds himself in the minority.
NH
Reuters are really really definate on this one
JC
And evidence yet again that frontrunners never win, I might add.
NH
German central bank chief Axel Weber will not be a candidate to replace European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, European sources said on Wednesday.
“Weber’s ECB candidacy is no longer on the agenda,” one of the European sources said.
The Bundesbank declined to comment after sources in European financial centres said it would make a statement on the professional future of its boss later in the day.
JC
So who do we think’s gonna get it?
JC
Draghi. Not sure. They might do a peripheral name though.
NH
Euro trading at $1.3622
JC
Patrick Honohan, anyone?
JC
Ah – Lorcan reckons it’ll be a northerner. Good point.
JC
A peripheral president, to go with all those peripheral debt holdings…
NH
we should start a book
NH
anyone fancy running it?
NH
(Squarepeg – it already is)
JC
(Lemmy – yeah, wonder if the price of this is those constitutional debt brake thingies)
NH
FTSE 100 off 20 points at 6,071
NH
a lot of big companies ex-div today
Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC (RB.:LSE): Last: 3,252, down 193 (-5.60%), High: 3,350, Low: 3,240, Volume: 3.69m
NH
Q4 numbers missed expectations
NH
and the guidance for 2011
JC
(Lorcan – yes and very interesting. Sorry have been tied up with more ELA stuff)
NH
it’s the top line sales growth slowing
NH
not as popular as it was
NH
explains why Reckitt have been buying things like SSL
NH
and other drug related stuff
JC
OK, any comment on that?
NH
Bottomline: Ex Pharma Rx, Reckitt’s 4Q shows below expectations top line growth, but margins better than expected. The top line raises concerns about OTC growth (and validates our argument about structural changes in the fabric care business. For 2011 guidance is a tad below expectations (4% growth vs. 5% consensus, all ex SSL). While the integration of SSL may provide upside for 2011, we remain bearish about the rest of Reckitt (household, OTC).
NH
We keep Sell at price target of 3100p
Consolidated LFL sales up 4.6% (ex SSL) vs. consensus of 5.9% and LCe 3%; Stripping out Pharma Rx, core up 3.3% vs. consensus 4.3% and LC est 3.3%. In our model we had assumed no growth for Suboxone on the assumption of generics by YE10 (this is why our consolidated number was low).
NH
At the core divisional level, Europe (0%) and emerging markets (+17%) were in line with consensus, but NA&A was flat vs. 2% consensus. At product level (no consensus available), fabric care was flat (nine consecutive quarters of no growth) but most other household pieces were above our estimates. However, the very important OTC/personal care business (30% of sales) was up only 4% (vs. c10% growth in recent quarters). We had expected only 6% growth for OTC to account for a bad flu season, but the number came in actually below our estimates.
NH
Adjusted EBIT margins for the core (i.e. ex Pharma RX) came in at 26.4%, up 120bp yoy, and well above our estimate of 24.9% (we had expected a 30bp drop). Pharma RX EBIT margins came in at a massive 79.3%
We have stripped out SSL from our comparative analysis
For 2011, for the Group excluding SSL, the target is for +4% like-for-like net revenue (press release is not clear, but we assume this is ex Pharma Rx), which is below consensus of 4.8% and 2010 growth of 5%. Management said that the net revenue target compares to a global market which is currently showing no growth
NH
not very household goods is it?
JC
Blimey. Best not mixed with Cilit Bang.
NH
(Silver – watch it pls)
NH
everyone loves Reckitt
NH
it has a punchy valuation
NH
and is always sensitive to set backs like this
NH
Suboxone actually gained market share
NH
according to these figures
NH
Reckitt’s top line seems slightly weaker than expected, although on a
rounded basis +4% Q4 base growth and +5% FY base growth is in line. Base
margin progress, against an easy Q4 2009 comparison, is below expectations
at 120bp vs consensus of 230bp, and SSL contributed very little to profits in its
first two months. Pharma growth remains strong however and the fact that
Suboxone film strips have already grabbed 25% of the market in the US does
reduce the potential hit to generics if and when they enter. While Reckitt has
switched its guidance back to the group level (looking for 10% constant
currency net income growth in 2011E), the fact that Pharma is now 24% of
group EBITA is likely to continue to muddy the rating for a while yet.
NH
Guidance change. Reckitt has dropped its base (ex Pharma) guidance and gone back to
group guidance. LFL growth is expected to be +4% on sales and more than that on
profits ex acquisitions, but including SSL growth is expected to be 12% on sales and
10% on net income – in constant currencies. Obviously if generics enter then this
guidance will be cut, but it is an interesting switch around in thinking.
NH
bored with household goods?
JC
Pretty much. Let’s move on.
NH
and not one person has mentioned the LSE
NH
I know its a dull mid cap software company
JC
Indeed. C’mon people – Miners R Us
NH
creating an even bigger platform
NH
for iffy mining companies the world over to be listed on
JC
biggest exposure to – oops, sorry – combination of mining listings on the planet
NH
it all looks very defensive to me
NH
there’s no real growth angle to it
NH
the LSE isn’t merging with anyone
NH
that has a big dervivatives offering
NH
let’s hope it’s not a bubble
JC
Oh, but perhaps we’re being too sceptical
JC
TMX is a great prospect
JC
Just not for LSE. What chance a counter-bid?
NH
the price suggests there won’t be one
London Stock Exchange Group Plc (LSE:LSE): Last: 979.00, up 87 (+9.75%), High: 989.00, Low: 950.00, Volume: 3.59m
NH
is just reflecting the £35m of projected cost savings
NH
there’s nothing in there for a counter bid
NH
the £100m of revenue synergies
NH
which we all know are pie in the sky
NH
none of the big western exchanges would be allowed to buy the LSE
NH
so that means we are looking at Singapore
JC
Singapore, that’s interesting. Given they might need something more over HK
NH
a big short position in the LSE
NH
according to my figures
NH
12.7% of the company on loan
NH
that should help the price
JC
What are the analysts saying, meanwhile?
NH
here’s Numis which doesn’t believe this revenue synergy stuff
NH
The LSE have announced a merger with the Canadian exchange TMX which would create a combined group with a value of £3.7bn. They hope to achieve cost synergies of £35m within two years which is equal to 10% of the LSE cost base. We believe that this level of cost synergies is achievable (even with a board of 15!). They also hope to achieve £100m of revenue synergies within five years which is equal to 16% of the LSE revenue.
NH
Detail here is very limited with the only revenue synergies they specifically mention being facilitation of cross-listings and admissions for customers. We are very sceptical of this level of synergy being achieved without any real detail being provided. Should these synergies be achieved they would equate to a huge 56% of the underlying profit reported by the LSE last year. The LSE shareholders will own 55% of the combined group with the LSE contributing 66% of the combined profit. A clear strong Buy if you believe the £100m of revenue synergies can be achieved.
NH
there will be a counter bid
JC
(Ptolemy – An IMF that liked to say NEIN to the periphery would be pretty interesting)
NH
This transaction brings as much as 8% to the LSE share price thanks to advertised synergies, but these synergies aren’t as impressive as we have seen in other comparable transactions. There will be talk of potential interlopers, but we think chances are slim, we are somewhat reliant on a conservative Asian entity making an aggressive move – one of the larger Western players would find it very tough to buy LSE from a regulatory perspective. This deal is likely to proceed as planned, and despite the synergies brought to LSE shareholders, there is a distinct value shift towards TMX shareholders – reflecting the need the LSE has shown for some time to do a meaningful sized deal.
NH
As a merger of equals, this transaction is all about the synergies that can be extracted. Cost synergies are expected to be CAD56mm per annum by end of year 2, some 9.7% of TMX sales. This should be compared with the 18% targeted when Euronext and NYSE merged, and the 17% when OMX and Nasdaq proposed a merger, both in 2007. Post-tax, the LSE share of these cost synergies could add as much 8% to the LSE shareprice today. There are revenue synergies over and above this (£35mm in year 3 growing to £100mm in year 5), although the market will likely be hesitant to price these in for now.
NH
Citi which thinks the whole thing is defensive
NH
Defensive Move. At this early stage we see this as a defensive move by the LSE rather than an aggressive / growth deal. We worry that this deal looks likely to take up management time and energy in the short term. We see this putting the LSE’s existing growth strategies on the backburner, which we view as a negative.
NH
BOX clever? The deal will make LSE/TSX a bigger and more powerful listing venue, but we do not see it as hugely compelling in terms of growth opportunities previously announced by the company. TMX businesses include Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange, Montreal Exchange, Natural Gas Exchange, Boston Options Exchange (BOX), Shorcan, Equicom. BOX looks to be most compatible with LSE’s previously stated growth strategy in derivatives, but we estimate it has only 3% market share in US Equity Options.
M&A is back? The market may potentially see this merger announcement as both LSE & TSX putting themselves ‘in play’ from an M&A / consolidation view. We see positive read-through for the rest of the sector in terms of M&A activity, but expect the perceived defensive nature of this deal as likely to hold back LSE’s share price.
NH
i can tell you are thrilled by this Joseph
JC
On derivatives offerings from LSEBMX btw – apparently they did push something about a ‘transatlantic’ clearing platform in the conference call this morning.
JC
Which is indeed, thrilling, but not a lot to go on.
NH
It’s gone all Top Gear on the right
NH
which means we need some casual racism
NH
anyone know some Mexican jokes
JC
Sure. But first, Germans.
JC
RTRS-BUNDESBANK SAYS DENIES RUMOUR OF IMMINENT PRESS RELEASE ON FUTURE OF AXEL WEBER
JC
RTRS-GERMAN FINANCE MINISTRY SAYS NO COMMENT ON AXEL WEBER REPORTS
NH
looks like it’s spot on
NH
can we go back to exchanges
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
JC
Yes. When you rile the Bundesbank into a denial, it’s got legs.
NH
we need to visit Spain
NH
Bolsas y Mercados Españoles
NH
as its know in the market
JC
What’s the story here then?
NH
rumour of EUR28 a share bid
NH
apparently they want to go Latin
NH
rumour is an offer has been tabled
NH
Now, we have checked this story
NH
and can’t get anywhere with it
NH
so buyer beware and all that
NH
(@Ptolemy – well done)
NH
and I have another bit of RAW
NH
French mid cap explorer
NH
stock got hammered yesterday
NH
and quashed takeover rumours
NH
apparently what he said was more nuanced
NH
about always being open to offers
NH
company was put up for sale
NH
BNP Paribas brought into to find buyers
NH
along with a law firm called BCTG
NH
with an offer of around EUR16
NH
and the deal was set to happen
NH
until the chairman turned round and said
NH
as long as I can keep the companies Nigerian assets
NH
things got bogged down
NH
and we don’t know anymore
JC
??? Odd thing to say to the Chinese knocking on the door
JC
Speaking of odd things…
JC
RTRS-DEUTSCHE BANK SAYS DECLINES TO COMMENT ON BUNDESBANK’S WEBER
JC
Why on earth do Deutsche Bank need to be in the story here?
NH
Germany’s DPA had reported that Weber would resign from the Bundesbank and join Deutsche Bank after Reuters reported that sources said Weber is no longer a candidate for the top ECB post
JC
Well, wasn’t there something about Ackermann not staying on until 2013
JC
But if they’re offering no comment, who knows.
NH
Just back to the LSE for a moment
NH
we have had some issues with RBC in recent days
NH
and taking some of our posts to task
JC
Well, all we really know is that Ackermann won’t renew his contract beyond 2013, actually. So again, who knows
NH
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS ACTS AS AS JOINT FINANCIAL ADVISER TO THE LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE
London, 9 February 2011 – RBC Capital Markets, the corporate and investment banking arm of Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE), today announced that it has acting as joint financial adviser to the London Stock Exchange Group on its agreed merger with the TMX Group.
For full details, please see attached.
About RBC Capital Markets
NH
would let something out with that many typos
NH
but then I’m not advising on a £4bn merger
NH
and trying to get some mileage out of it
NH
that it has acting as joint financial
NH
before we get any more abuse from RBC
NH
Bryce is in the building
NH
not sure if he fancies joining us
NH
Rabble asking about the Pru
NH
Andrew Crean at Autonomous
Prudential PLC (PRU:LSE): Last: 730.00, up 14.5 (+2.03%), High: 733.50, Low: 721.00, Volume: 3.24m
NH
raising price target to £9 from 775p
BE
Aha – I have that note.
NH
why are trying to get note now
BE
Good morning Neil. And good morning , Rightards.
BE
It’s a big sector piece
BE
Of which I’ll give edited highlights
BE
Because Autonomous get very shirty if we provide more.
NH
and they have Lord Myners
BE
This is the second of a two part analysis of the UK life sector. The first piece (17/11/2010) argued that after ten years of underperformance, UK life companies have come up with a new business model that deserves closer inspection. This piece centres on a fifty year cash (free capital) projection. For the first time, we have found a language that takes the radically different new business economics of UK companies and translates them into a series of company specific cash trajectories that can be valued one against another. It provides insights about the trade-off between cash and growth. Only Prudential can hit both targets and remains the most undervalued.
BE
The Thesis: There are three life companies each generating £100 from their back books. Company A invests 40% in new business for a 35% IRR paying back in three years. Company B invests 40% of its back book cash flows for a 15% IRR and a six year payback and company C invests 80% for a 12% IRR and a ten year payback. Even if we fade Company A’s IRRs ten years in, the current dispersion of valuations is not wide enough (see table).
BE
Company A, Prudential, offers cash and growth from its Asian and asset management model. Its low current level of dividend distribution gives it balance sheet flexibility and the option to invest more aggressively in growth. This stock remains our core Outperform (target price up from 775p to 900p).
BE
Company B (both L&G and Standard Life) produces a lot of distributable cash currently but struggles to grow given the low level of reinvestment in new business and moderate VIF uplift generated from this investment. For both, asset management growth will be critical. Standard Life distributes most of its free capital generation. This gives it little flexibility – perhaps not too great a concern given a low risk model. Nevertheless lack of upside means we lower the rating to Underperform. L&G has significant scope to raise the payout – the key to our Outperform recommendation. If it chooses not to, it must reinvest skilfully to drive the fair value up further.
BE
Company C (Aviva) invests for growth but pays a high price in terms of available cash. With a geared balance sheet and full distribution of free capital generation, one might argue for a higher discount rate (+50bps on RDR = -11% on fair value). Higher risk leads to the Underperform call.
BE
And that’s enough, I think.
BE
No point in getting into ANOTHER fight with a broker.
NH
Crean is very good though
BE
He is, which is why we’re bringing you highlights.
NH
so Bryce, do you have the POX?
BE
No. My kid’s nursery has a dose of the pox.
NH
if the AV desk have had it
BE
I had the pox many years ago, I think. At this age it’d make you sterile.
BE
Meaning I wouldn’t need nursery. Missed opportunities all round.
BE
Anyway, apologies for my interruption. That Joseph was doing a fine job.
JC
I’ve had it, so think I’m all right.
JC
This is like Heat for central bankers or something
JC
Weber has indicated that he will not stand for a second term at the Bundesbank
JC
say Bundesbank sources according to Reuters
JC
Nope, nothing more on that front.
Xchanging PLC (XCH:LSE): Last: 62.75, down 54.25 (-46.37%), High: 70.00, Low: 54.75, Volume: 12.27m
BE
Hm. Rather a mess, this one.
NH
massive goodwill writedown
NH
they have breached banking covenants
NH
it’s an outsourcing company
NH
business process outsourcing
NH
now can anyone say hand on heart
NH
they know what that is
NH
and how you make money for it?
BE
Er …. you make money from it by presenting one-off contributions as recurring revenue.
BE
As today’s statement proves.
BE
And as many had suspected for a long time.
BE
Though the

were very nasty every time you even hinted at it.
BE
And we really have to note that this warning is not out of the blue.
NH
nope, it’s been coming
BE
The concerns have been around for a long time, and were already baked into the price to a certain extent.
NH
ever since the CEO started blaming short sellers back in August
BE
Which makes today’s 50% drop even grimmer.
NH
really raises more questions than it answers
NH
because cash flow is really really bad
NH
is the profit warning linked
NH
to more conversative revenue recognition
NH
or costs being capitalised
NH
one of the first people
NH
to raise the red flag on this one
NH
was Matthew Earl at Matrix
NH
now he’s cut his target price to 50p this morning
NH
Aggressive accounting appears to have caught up with Xchanging. While its 2010 underlying EBIT is expected to be in line with market expectations, it will be flattered by two-one-off items totalling £11.8m. 2011E EBIT is now expected to be below our bearish projection of £55.5m, which, itself, was c.24% below consensus. Our £55.5m EBIT forecast translated into 12.6p of adjusted earnings in 2011E. On the basis that 2011E EPS could now be closer to 10p, we would attach a 5x P/E multiple to the stock, valuing the shares at 50p, down from 79p previously
NH
There is further bad news. The group will write down £100m of goodwill relating to its Cambridge business and a further £12m of intangibles and other assets. In our 19 October 2010 note, we suggested that a c.£127m writedown would be appropriate. However, we also cited the risk that a writedown of this magnitude would threaten to breach one of the group’s three banking covenants, which centres on minimum net worth. That risk remains, in our view.
NH
The dividend for 2010 will not be paid, although going forward, the board will keep this policy under review. Moreover, David Andrews will step down as CEO, but retain a senior advisory role. In the interim, the group’s CFO, Ken Lever, will step up as acting CEO during the search process.
NH
some David Andrews reward
NH
for this spectular blow up
NH
is a nice consultancy role
BE
Oh. That’s a good point on covenants …..
NH
this is from Earl’s note in October
NH
that raised all the worries
NH
We believe the likelihood is that the minimum net worth covenant centres on the
group’s net assets being above a certain value. Net assets were reported to be
£289.8m in 2009, falling to £285.7m in H1 2010. However, £287.6m of goodwill and
£43.6m of cash and cash equivalents (the latter we believe is not available to the
group) – is included within the H1 2010 valuation
NH
We highlight above (see imprudent accounting) our estimate (2010E: £5.7m) of what
the group’s actual wholly available cash and cash equivalents is likely to be for FY
2010E. Moreover, we also believe that the level of goodwill associated with the
Cambridge Solutions acquisition (see risk of write-down to goodwill) is at risk of
being tested. Clearly, the Cambridge Solution business has considerably more
issues than the group anticipated at the time of acquisition and appears to have
significantly underperformed its peer group during the past 18 months. Should the
value of Cambridge Solutions be reassessed as being worth an EV/EBIT multiple in
line with the sector average, then this could mean an impairment of c.£127m of
goodwill, based on a sector average EV/EBIT multiple of 10.5x (see above) and a
£2.1m H1 2010 EBIT run rate.
NH
In our view, the combination of the group taking a more prudent approach to its
assessment of wholly available cash and cash equivalents and the risk of a potential
write-down of c.£127m of goodwill could reduce the group’s FY 2010E net assets to
c.£165m. We believe this could be low enough to trigger a breach of the group’s
minimum net worth covenant.
NH
there’s loads more in today’s statement to make you very nervous
NH
David Brockton at Banco de Noble
NH
In addition contract termination, a further deterioration in the US claims business and higher level of business development in the US will adversely impact future profit. 2011 operating profit is consequently expected to be at the lower end of the range, implying £55.5m, c.19% below our £68.8m forecast. This will also result in additional unquantified restructuring charges.
NH
Xchanging has understandably reviewed some of the carrying value of the Cambridge acquisition and will impair around £100m of goodwill and £12.0m of intangibles. This compares to £166.4m of crystallised goodwill from Cambridge on the balance sheet in 2009 and £16.7m of contractual customer relationships (as part of £80.1m of capitalised balances). Clearly a significant intangible remains on the balance sheet, after this assessment, and there appears to be no change to accounting policy.
NH
Dividend cut and Chief Executive departure
In the circumstances the Board has decided not to pay a dividend for 2010 (vs. our forecast 3.24p), which raises questions around cash generation and our assumptions for payout in successive years.
Chief Executive, David Andrews, has decided to step down from the Board with immediate effect and will be temporarily replaced by Finance Director, Ken Lever, while a successor is sought.
NH
Sell recommendation reiterated
Today’s update addresses some of our concerns for the Xchanging business, but does not resolve them fully and raises many further issues. Further deterioration in US activity, the dividend cut and departure of its founder create additional uncertainty as to the precise value and opportunity of Xchanging. This is compounded by the group’s approach to capitalising a relatively high level of intangible activity. We reiterate our Sell recommendation.
NH
This is compounded by the group’s approach to capitalising a relatively high level of intangible activity
NH
I can barely understand it all
BE
Hm. Milan Radia at Jefferies isn’t nervous, though I can’t quite get my head round his reasoning.
BE
The market has been pricing Xchanging for disaster, fearing an
accounting debacle. The new CFO, Ken Lever, arrived in
September 2010 and has significantly reduced FY11 guidance.
However, the disaster that many had predicted has not arrived,
arguably rendering the share price collapse an over-reaction.
BE
The net impact on our estimates, which are subject to
finalisation, seems to be a c.£22m reduction in FY11 EBIT to
c.£52m. Together with our revenue estimate of £800m (down
from £838m), this represents an FY11 group EBIT margin of
6.5% and EPS of c.£0.12. At the share level of £0.63 at the time
of writing, this represents a FY11 PE of 5x vs a BPO peer group
multiple of c.16x for the same period.
BE
Greater transparency is long overdue. It is evident that the
new CFO, Ken Lever, has sought to create greater clarity,
making distinctions between recurring business that can be
extrapolated into future periods and non-recurring items. It
transpires that the previous management team may have been
seeking to present the one-off contributions to profit as
stemming from underlying, recurring revenue.
BE
The CEO and founder of the business has departed, partly
reflecting the growing disconnect/mistrust between himself and
the market. Ultimately, the majority of the issues that the
company currently faces relate to the acquisition of Cambridge,
which has proved to be a disaster. The goodwill write-off of
£100m on Cambridge reflects these issues, particularly given
that the strategic benefits of the acquisition in terms of
globalisation of Xchanging’s footprint have yet to be
demonstrated.
BE
The initial share price move is dramatic and marks the latest
negative turn in the stock. Market sentiment towards the
company is battered and confidence will take some
considerable time to rebuild, in our view. The core Xchanging
business remains high quality, confirmed by the exceptional tier
1 client list. While the impact on new business flows from these
events is currently unpredictable, this is likely to be a trough in
performance and sentiment.
NH
till we get more clarity
NH
and the thing proves it get generate cash
BE
Yeah. Jefferies is very much the corporate message, isn’t it? Whereas Matrix is more of a rational, skin-in-the-game response.
JC
Yep. More hot central banker gossip.
JC
RTRS-THERE IS NO AGREEMENT FOR BUNDESBANK PRESIDENT AXEL WEBER TO SWITCH TO DEUTSCHE BANK – SOURCE
JC
RTRS-VERY UNLIKELY THAT DEUTSCHE BANK CEO ACKERMANN WILL BE SUCCEEDED BY AN EXTERNAL CANDIDATE – BANKING SOURCE
NH
nailed on I think this
JC
So that leaves Stefan Krause (DB’s CFO) for the top spot, if Weber won’t get it
NH
wanted to see more pretty woman
JC
But…. DB’s future is in German retail stuff…
NH
lest we be accused of giving to much credance
NH
here’s some more on BME
JC
Anyway, that’s enough on Bundesbankers.
NH
they have probably pinged round something similar
NH
BME SM ~ NEW TAKEOVER SPEC – RUBBISH! SEE THE INSIDER SELLING!
- See the attached & post LSE/TMX, this was an inevitable €28
bid story..Its complete rubbish.
- Note the Red Flags on the attached, the management have
constantly sold stock from Dec 20 onwards. Just because its
small, it does’nt mean its vulnreable. On 13x, its at a small
premium certainly with little growth potential & its 6% rally
owes more to the relief rating of Spain.
- We’re just suprised that the clever chaps on Alphaville have
given credence to such a silly story! SELL.
NH
no one has every called us clever before
NH
managed to track down the 1,300 word memo
JC
You know what? Elop’s a pretty good writer.
NH
can we have a few bits
JC
Hello there,
There is a pertinent story about a man who was working on an oil platform in the North Sea. He woke up one night from a loud explosion, which suddenly set his entire oil platform on fire. In mere moments, he was surrounded by flames. Through the smoke and heat, he barely made his way out of the chaos to the platform’s edge. When he looked down over the edge, all he could see were the dark, cold, foreboding Atlantic waters.
As the fire approached him, the man had mere seconds to react. He could stand on the platform, and inevitably be consumed by the burning flames. Or, he could plunge 30 meters in to the freezing waters. The man was standing upon a “burning platform,” and he needed to make a choice.
He decided to jump. It was unexpected. In ordinary circumstances, the man would never consider plunging into icy waters. But these were not ordinary times – his platform was on fire. The man survived the fall and the waters. After he was rescued, he noted that a “burning platform” caused a radical change in his behaviour.
We too, are standing on a “burning platform,” and we must decide how we are going to change our behaviour.
JC
How’s that for an opener.
NH
he’s wasted in mobile phones
JC
Hang on, will get more juicy bits
JC
(shareholders might say the same Neil)
JC
In 2008, Apple’s market share in the $300+ price range was 25 percent; by 2010 it escalated to 61 percent. They are enjoying a tremendous growth trajectory with a 78 percent earnings growth year over year in Q4 2010. Apple demonstrated that if designed well, consumers would buy a high-priced phone with a great experience and developers would build applications. They changed the game, and today, Apple owns the high-end range.
And then, there is Android. In about two years, Android created a platform that attracts application developers, service providers and hardware manufacturers. Android came in at the high-end, they are now winning the mid-range, and quickly they are going downstream to phones under €100. Google has become a gravitational force, drawing much of the industry’s innovation to its core.
Let’s not forget about the low-end price range. In 2008, MediaTek supplied complete reference designs for phone chipsets, which enabled manufacturers in the Shenzhen region of China to produce phones at an unbelievable pace. By some accounts, this ecosystem now produces more than one third of the phones sold globally – taking share from us in emerging markets.
While competitors poured flames on our market share, what happened at Nokia? We fell behind, we missed big trends, and we lost time. At that time, we thought we were making the right decisions; but, with the benefit of hindsight, we now find ourselves years behind.
JC
Flames poured on our market share
NH
he’s being brutally honest
NH
which is very refreshing
NH
comes as stuff like this
NH
09Feb11 RTRS-NOKIA ENDS FIRST MEEGO PHONE PROJECT BEFORE LAUNCH -SOURCES
10:20 09Feb11 RTRS-NOKIA SPOKESMAN DECLINES TO COMMENT
NH
Taxloss makes a good point
NH
is this a Ratner moment?
BE
I’d argue no. An OS is not a diamond that costs as much as a prawn sandwich.
BE
Here’s the thing with Nokia ….
JC
Plus, it’s a bit more in-depth than ‘it’s totally crap’.
BE
Did you read in your super soaraway FT today that smartphones now outsell PCs?
BE
That’s an important datapoint.
BE
As it stands, Microsoft has 2% of what is now potentially their largest market.
NH
Windows Phone 7 is not the answer then?
BE
Well, it’s dead in the water against Android for the middle ground market.
BE
Seriously. I don’t think a JV or a co-operation’s enough.
NH
we are not saying this is happening
NH
idle speculation at that
BE
Yeah – this is just me talking.
BE
And paraphrasing smarter people.
JC
(taxloss – yeah, pretty much)
BE
As a broker mentioned this morning, do you remember how the HP-Compaq merger was described as “two drunks holding each other up”?
BE
I can see parallels here. Two failing companies
BE
Elop basically needs to be smart and play his strategic position well. I’d be amazed if he hadn’t spent a few sleepless nights considering a Microsoft bid.
BE
Once again, all speculation though.
NH
yes let me emphaise that
NH
the full reuters story on Meego
NH
HELSINKI, Feb 9 (Reuters) – Nokia has ended development of its first smartphone using its new MeeGo operating system before it was ever launched, two industry sources close to the company said.
A spokesman for Nokia declined to comment.
The yet unproven MeeGo software platform, seen as a key weapon in Nokia’s battle against Apple and Google in the high end smartphone market, was created early last year from the merger of Nokia and Intel’s Linux-based platforms Maemo and Moblin. [ID:nLDE61E0Z2]
Analysts said Nokia could still show the next MeeGo device, even if unfinished, later this week at its investor day in London on Friday or news conference in Barcelona on Sunday.
NH
WEBER MAY NOT SEEK SECOND TERM AS BUNDESBANK HEAD: OFFICIAL
NH
don’t know if that means
JC
Well, speaking of Weber rumours, here’s some more inconsequential crap
JC
RTRS-UK’S CAMERON SAYS DEAL WITH BANKS MEANS BIG SOCIETY BANK WILL PUT 200 MLN STG INTO VOLUNTARY SECTOR
JC
This is the Project Merlin thing which I think we’re getting today
NH
Sat tea time TV programme
JC
Needless to say, watch the tax breaks thing instead.
JC
From Platts this, I think
JC
A supertanker carrying about $200m (£125m; 146m euros) worth of crude oil has been hijacked off the coast of Oman, the vessel’s Greek operator says.
JC
And we’ve had some reaction from the industry to this
JC
RTRS-HIJACKING OF U.S.-BOUND GREEK OIL TANKER MARKS SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PIRACY CRISIS IN INDIAN OCEAN – TANKER INDUSTRY
12:14 09Feb11 RTRS-PIRACY SITUATION “SPINNING OUT OF CONTROL” INTO ENTIRE INDIAN OCEAN – TANKER INDUSTRY
12:14 09Feb11 RTRS-IF PIRACY IN INDIAN OCEAN LEFT UNABATED WILL “STRANGLE” CRUCIAL SHIPPING LANES- TANKER INDUSTRY
12:15 09Feb11 RTRS-CONTINUED PIRACY IN INDIAN OCEAN HAS POTENTIAL TO SEVERELY DISRUPT OIL FLOWS TO U.S AND REST OF WORLD – TANKER INDUSTRY
JC
Not sure if the worker’s strike at the Suez Canal Company announced yesterday has had much effect, but….
JC
Just underlines how jitters over supply are becoming a trend this year
JC
(decoyed – they have been convoyed thru Suez itself, I think. The ones that fit. Not sure)
JC
Further to that, this is an interesting spot from Paul Kedrosky…
JC
Basically, some chap formerly of Saudi’s Aramco went a bit Peak Oil in front of US officials
NH
the oilers will love that
JC
which is a little rare, and given Saudi supply is meant to be one of the certainties left in the market here, I’d guess is worth pondering.
NH
Morrison is moving on this buyout story
Wm Morrison Supermarkets P L C (MRW:LSE): Last: 282.40, up 4.3 (+1.55%), High: 282.70, Low: 277.40, Volume: 3.99m
NH
of Canadian extraction is pushing
NH
Share buybacks and special dividends are reasonable options for strongly cash-generative Wm. Morrison Supermarkets, but only a sale of the company would truly maximize shareholder value.
Indeed, for a private equity consortium, possibly including sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East, an LBO of the U.K’s fourth-largest grocer would make an attractive play on U.K. real estate and could offer terrific returns if the cycle delivers. A sale of the business is an option for J Sainsbury, too.
NH
Thisarticle originally appeared on Dow Jones Investment Banke
BE
The noise is increasing in part because Morrison’s new CEO’s due to deliver a balance sheet review in a month.
NH
the only buy story I have heard in the retail space recently
JC
They do love their real estate, Middle East SWFs. Not sure about bargain supermarkets.
Marks And Spencer Group PLC (MKS:LSE): Last: 372.20, down 1.1 (-0.29%), High: 375.30, Low: 368.50, Volume: 3.81m
NH
Apax the latest name to be mentioned
NH
and the risk of sounding boring
BE
Oh, and Shore Capital was pushing the line a few days ago that Morrison may buy all sorts of stuff.
Ocado Group PLC (OCDO:LSE): Last: 269.80, up 13.5 (+5.27%), High: 272.00, Low: 254.40, Volume: 554.04k
BE
On the back of a Sunday report that they’d brought in George “at Asda” Davis to make them some clothes.
BE
Could acquisition feature on the Morrison agenda?
BE
Accordingly, to engage in actions that may move the Morrison profit or earnings dial through clothing
will the business consider the Sainsbury (SBRY^, Hold at approach at 390p) route and seek to
develop new hypermarkets in the north & west (it is hard to see how it can meaningfully do so in the
more costly south & east), will it look on-line or, indeed, at acquisition?
BE
Home Retail (HOME^, Sell at 222p) & Matalan have been mentioned in despatches as potential
targets for superstore groups in the past and no doubt will again in the future; more blue sky would
Morrison seek to acquire an on-line clothing retailer? Morrison certainly has the balance sheet to
explore strategic acquisitions in this space.
NH
Home Retail and Morrison
BE
Or an online retailer. …. Asos?
Ocado Group PLC (OCDO:LSE): Last: 269.80, up 13.5 (+5.27%), High: 272.00, Low: 254.40, Volume: 554.16k
BE
I’d have thought N Brown would be more Morrison style.
NH
that all Morrison customers
NH
are fat, old and live in the North?
BE
Yes. That’s what I’m saying. I’m making a horrible slight about the evolutionary state of their customers, which I judge from the Shepherds Bush branch.
BE
Which is essentially the fifth ring of hell.
BE
And now, here’s a Ferrarri driving into a caravan.
NH
or thought a Morrison store
NH
down the chilled food isle
NH
Time for some small caps
NH
anyone know what this is?
NH
pre-clinical in-vivo efficacy
NH
being going made on Aim
BE
Oh – the cancer drug thing.
Sareum Holdings PLC (SAR:LSE): Last: 2.55, up 0.9 (+54.55%), High: 4.79, Low: 1.83, Volume: 740.35m
NH
they have found a cure
NH
I can’t understand the statement
NH
all looks very early stage
NH
Sareum (AIM: SAR), the specialist cancer drug discovery business, is pleased to
announce positive results from its pre-clinical in-vivo efficacy studies into
acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), the most common form of adult leukaemia.
A recent study for Sareum’s Aurora+FLT3 Kinase programme showed that the
leukaemia regressed to such an extent that no detectable cancer could be found
in any of the cases treated (ten in total) with a Sareum compound. By
comparison, leukaemia increased five to fifteen fold in the study examples
treated without Sareum’s compound. At six weeks following treatment, no
detectable cancer could be found in two of the ten examples dosed with the
Sareum compound. In the remaining eight treated examples, the average time taken
for the leukaemia to increase 5-fold was six weeks, compared to two weeks in the
untreated cases.
NH
Am I allowed to say that
NH
the company has updated the market today
NH
Sareum (AIM: SAR), the specialist cancer drug discovery business, has noted the
recent significant rise in the Company’s share price, the volume of shares
traded in the last two trading sessions and the bulletin board and press
comments following the announcement made on 7 February 2011 with the headline
“Research Update: Positive Leukaemia Model Study”.
The Company can confirm that it is not currently in advanced stages of
discussion with a potential licencing partner and there can be no certainty that
the announcement of these results will lead to a licencing agreement being
entered into.
BE
Oh. The RNS mentions “bulletin board comments”
A term of endearment used to describe BB share promoters on FT Alphaville.
NH
not much else from the small cap world
NH
save for a note on Pursuit Dynamics
NH
following the latest biofuels update
NH
Sareum (AIM: SAR), the specialist cancer drug discovery business, has noted the
recent significant rise in the Company’s share price, the volume of shares
traded in the last two trading sessions and the bulletin board and press
comments following the announcement made on 7 February 2011 with the headline
“Research Update: Positive Leukaemia Model Study”.
The Company can confirm that it is not currently in advanced stages of
discussion with a potential licencing partner and there can be no certainty that
the announcement of these results will lead to a licencing agreement being
entered into.
NH
With (according to JV partner NNL) contracts due in days in Nuclear decontamination, revenues expected this Q in Ethanol and the installation programme imminent with several large brewing clients it is becoming increasingly dangerous and maybe irrational to hold the bear view that PDX’s technology “doesn’t work” or doesn’t add anything that competetitors can’t offer. The company was extremely robust in response to the recent negative “dossier” that was published and in my view continues to grow in confidence over commercial execution. They are holding an investor day at Huntingdon on Feb 15th, with presentations and demonstrations from Brewing, Ethanol, NDX, Karcher, R&D and Legal (patent) and their next analyst investor presentation is along with their AGM at 9.30 on Feb 28th at the Sofitel Pall Mall, please let me know if you are interested in attending either of these events.
NH
anything more from you Bryce
Cable and Wireless Communications PLC (CWC:LSE): Last: 46.88, down 2.39 (-4.85%), High: 48.30, Low: 46.62, Volume: 10.52m
CSR PLC (CSR:LSE): Last: 448.90, up 41.4 (+10.16%), High: 464.00, Low: 424.00, Volume: 1.97m
Telecity Group Plc (TCY:LSE): Last: 475.90, down 18.1 (-3.66%), High: 498.00, Low: 466.30, Volume: 896.58k
BE
Well, I’ve done no more than glance at all those sets of numbers.
BE
CSR’s self explanitory.
NH
Solid vs reduced expectations: so 4Q Rev performance and 1Q guidance is ahead which is probably most important. EBIT misses but looks like costs impacted by Broadcom litigation which investors see as resolved and one-off. The FY guide for 2011 looks broadly inline with MS’s model. CSR has started paying a dividend here for the first time (6.5c; 1% yield), which should go down well (in addition to buyback of $50m – CSR has net cash of $440m). Perennial takeover candidate too, on low valuation (EV/Sales of <1x), so inline to ahead on revs probably sees the shares up small (3-4% guess)
NH
that was frmo Morgan Stanley
BE
C&W Comms is the usual curate’s egg.
BE
CWC has published its Q3 IMS. The key headline is that mgmt is
comfortable with the “out-turn” for the March 2011 year implied by
consensus forecasts, but sees modest downside risk to consensus for
the full year as whole. Consensus FY11 EBITDA currently $877m (JEFFe
$866m). Expect downgrades to c.$860m.
Back in Nov, H1 results revealed a downturn in organic growth. Guided
improvements in Panama are now coming through, but the Caribbean
remains tough. Guidance of $115m for Caribbean EBITDA in H2 is $15m
below consensus.
NH
the Playtech story is madness
Playtech Ltd (PTEC:LSE): Last: 406.00, up 19.75 (+5.11%), High: 407.75, Low: 390.00, Volume: 737.71k
NH
Here’s Liberum on that
NH
Press speculation (Daily Telegraph) about a full merger with Ladbrokes looks wide of the mark to us. A deal, possibly involving Playtech’s call options (per the WMH Online deal), or where Ladbrokes becomes a licensee seem more feasible. Either of these outcomes would be positive for Playtech shareholders. Playtech is too cheap, trading on a PE of 11x and dividend yield of 4.6%. BUY.
NH
Press reports suggest Ladbrokes have approached Playtech. The Daily Telegraph reports that “Ladbrokes has begun exploratory talks with Playtech…over a potential merger”. Investment banks have been appointed to sound out Playtech “over possible strategic tie ups…with a share based-merger only one option under discussion”. The article correctly mentions the PTEC’s WMH Online tie up as a potential stumbling block.
n A merger has confused logic. To us it seems unclear why Ladbrokes would want to become a software company, and why Playtech wants to become a vertically integrated operator. Certainly, a number of Playtech’s licensees would be perturbed by a major competitor potentially having insights into their operating businesses.
NH
WHOnline is one third of PTEC’s Enterprise value. PTEC own a 29% equity stake in William Hill Online, which we value at c€300m, and the company would not want to do anything that damages an interest that equates to one third of their EV. Other major licensees such as PaddyPower, Betfair and Bet365 would also no doubt cry foul if Ladbrokes had an insight into their operating performance.
n Feasible deals: PTEC’s call options or another licensee. If the article has credibility, we believe that potential deals that could stem from these discussions are 1). PTEC exercising call options over affiliated businesses (call options expire 20 March), that are immediately injected into Ladbrokes online, in a similar way to the William Hill Online deal. 2). Ladbrokes becomes a Playtech licensee.
NH
Latter deals positive for PTEC. We would be surprised if a full merger is the end game here, but the two potential deals we explain above would be very positive for Playtech shareholders. The WHOnline deal should double shareholders’ money (post dividends of €80m from 2009-11, and equity stake worth €290m). Either way, we believe Playtech shares are too cheap, trading on just a PE of 11x and a yield of 4.6%. They should deliver double-digit earnings growth in FY11, with a move to the main list, a new FD, and certainty over the call options end game as other potential catalysts. BUY.
BE
Hm. The sale process for 888 is becoming rather odd. First Playtech will bid for 888, then Ladbrokes will buy Playtech.
BE
Lots of noise, and 888 just keeps limping on.
NH
it does all its business with Hills
BE
And I think someone was badgering us for some Telecity comment.
BE
Probably a stale bull who bought on the bid rumourtrage a few months ago.
NH
but shows Ladbrokes are radical
BE
Yeah yeah. We’ve all seen noisy sale processes before.
BE
Right – returning to Telecity.
BE
Here’s Collins Stewart, and that’s us done after that I think.
BE
Headline numbers ahead
Telecity’s full year results came in marginally better than our and consensus
estimates following another strong performance across most metrics.
Revenues of £196.4m (CS £195.2m) represent constant currency growth of
17.7%, while EBITDA of £83.4m (CS: £82.0m) equates to a YoY increase of
30.5%. Demand for data centre space was robust across all of the group’s
markets, driven in no small degree by the increased adoption of cloud
computing and higher usage of mobile devices.
BE
EBITDA margins up strongly on further operational gearing
Group EBITDA increased to 42.5% (2009: 37.7%) as a result of the inherent
operational gearing of the business model, accelerating in H2 on improved
capacity utilisation. This was in spite a 9.8% increase in fitted out space and
a 13.7% rise in available customer power.
BE
Excellent performance on cash flow
The biggest surprise in the results was at the net debt line, which came in
substantially ahead of our expectations (£56.8m vs. CS £84.1m). This was a
result of lower expansionary capex than previously expected – partly due to
timing but partly also a result of increased efficiencies – as well as strong
working capital management. The lower net debt also had a positive impact
on finance expenses, which came in some way below our forecasts.
BE
Positive outlook
We had been concerned that further margin uplift in the year ahead would
be held back by the cost increases resulting from the numerous capacity
extensions across the group. We are therefore pleased to hear that the year
has started well and that management is confident of another strong year
with further EBITDA margin progress and results in line with expectations.
BE
No change to positive stance
We remain of the view that Telecity represents a highly attractive way to play
the continued growth in Internet traffic and cloud computing. We are leaving
our (marginally below consensus) estimates unchanged and remain Buyers.
Telecity Group Plc (TCY:LSE): Last: 475.10, down 18.9 (-3.83%), High: 498.00, Low: 466.30, Volume: 899.27k
NH
more than enough for you all to chew on
BE
From Jeremy, Richard and me, good afternoon.