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Pink picks

Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,

John Gapper: Take Fannie and Freddie off the road
What does a failed mortgage giant have to do to get some attention these days?, asks the FT columnist. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have cost the US taxpayer $150bn and the bill could rise to at least twice that. Yet reform was not included in the Dodd-Frank bill and was ignored by Barack Obama in his State of the Union address. It would have been awkward to admit, amid such praise for free enterprise, that his government is much more entangled in its housing market than any European counterpart. Nor is there much sign, even if Fannie and Freddie are wound down, of an appetite for taking away official backing entirely.

Robert Reich: Why America’s Sputnik moment will fall short
President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address was everything his supporters hoped it would be – dignified, thoughtful and moderate, writes Reich, author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future and professor of public policy at University of California, Berkeley. It was a call for fiscal prudence at a time of growing budget deficits and a summons to improve competitiveness to counter the gravitational pull of the Great Recession. In short, it hit all the right notes. But there was no melody, at least none that was memorable. What he should have done is talk about the central structural flaw in the US economy, the dwindling share of its gains going to the vast middle class, and the almost unprecedented concentration of income and wealth at the top.

Mohamed El-Erian: Nice speech, but now Obama must act
President Barack Obama’s State of the Union speech on Tuesday focused on the economy. Its message will resonate well among Americans and America’s allies – and it should, writes El-Erian, chief executive of Pimco. But to deliver his vision, he needs to move quickly. His speech confirms the serious migration of jobs creation to the top of the policy agenda – following quickly after the renaming of Mr Obama’s recovery advisory board as a Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, and his appointment of Jeffrey Immelt, chief executive of GE, as its chair.

Equities: Tech groups outrun bulls in equity rally
When it comes to bull markets, technology stocks are renowned for running the fastest, write the FT;’s Michael Mackenzie and Michael Stothard. This has been true since August with the sector roaring ahead of the broad equity rally. Stellar earnings from IBM, Google, Apple and Intel this month have vindicated the near-30 per cent rise in the Nasdaq Composite since the Fed indicated willingness to buy more bonds in an effort to revitalise the economy. The big question for investors is whether the rally has pushed valuations for tech companies too far, too fast.

Deven Sharma: Reforms need to nurture capital markets
A big question facing financial policymakers – and a key topic of debate at this week’s World Economic Forum – is whether capital markets can cope with the huge demand expected for credit worldwide in the coming years, writes Sharma, president of Standard & Poor’s. It requires a clear commitment to improving market infrastructure in the developing world, strengthening transparency and pricing of credit risk, and broadening participation by international companies and investors in local markets. In the next few years, capital markets will need to make an even bigger contribution to supporting growth, building infrastructure, and creating jobs worldwide. Nurturing their development as transparent, well-governed and liquid sources of funding must be a policy priority.

Lex on the UK economy – a warning for the world?
Not long ago, the UK’s economy was the envy of the G5 nations, writes Lex. Having skirted the worst of the ”great recession” it was enjoying a healthy rebound. But suddenly, even the central bank governor admits that the inflation rate could soon exceed 5 per cent; while GDP contracted in the most recent quarter. From being enviable, the UK may now have the weakest economy of any big developed economy.

Analysis: John Plender – the overarching property problem
Today, what started as a seizure in the subprime mortgage market in 2007 is increasingly focused on commercial property, writes the FT’s Plender. The likelihood of a rash of defaults is of growing concern to policy­makers, bankers and investors, as well as to heavily indebted property companies. Central to the future of both the finance industry and the global economy, therefore, is the question of why property repeatedly torpedoes the banking system, prompting deep recessions, and what can be done to prevent this.

BeyondBrics: Brazil – infrastructure over consumption?
Eighty per cent of the world’s consumers live in emerging markets, creating a huge pool of customers for all those companies looking to sell goods and services, writes Shannon Bond. That’s why most fund managers bet on consumer groups last year – and were repaid handsomely as domestic demand soared. Given the success of that strategy, HSBC has stuck its neck out in a note announcing it’s betting on commodities and infrastructure in Brazil over the popular consumption story in 2011.

MoneySupply: Trichet… never say never
A debt restructuring in Europe “is not in the plan,” Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, just told Bloomberg Television. The ECB would certainly hope that was not the case – it would worry about contagion effects, writes the FT’s Ralph Atkins. But Mr Trichet’s choice of words did not appear to rule out the possibility in every eventuality. Perhaps that was wise

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