Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:27 on 19 Jan 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT bryce.elder
NH
and only one thing to talk about today
Pearson plc is the parent company of the Financial Times, publisher of FT Alphaville.
NH
and the FT trading well
BE
It’s a fantastic newspaper.
NH
The Financial Times Group finished the year strongly and we will report substantial profit growth (excluding Interactive Data which was sold in July 2010). Advertising markets continued to improve and our subscription-based revenues remained resilient.
NH
substantial profit growth
NH
we can look forward to the other broadsheets
NH
the Pearson should sell FT story
NH
right time in the cycle
NH
it would fetch a good price etc
Pearson (PSON:LSE): Last: 1,074, up 68 (+6.76%), High: 1,075, Low: 1,036, Volume: 2.45m
BE
I’m sure someone will make up that line for tomorrow’s papers.
BE
Though, of course, the Times is already for sale.
BE
There can only be so many oligarchs out there wanting to buy newspapers.
NH
a pity I don’t have a Pearson share to my name, however
NH
right a bit of comment
NH
on these wonderful figures
NH
Pearson has reported upbeat guidance in its normal January update, pointing to
EPS of c76p, 16% growth on 2009. This compares to guidance of 72p at the 9m
stage and our forecast of 72.5p, so a c5% beat.
NH
Key strength in Education
While tax is at the low end of expectations, the outperformance is underlying with
adjusted operating profit pre IDC guided to at £850m, c4% ahead of our
expectations. The key strength is in Education, with Pearson clearly taking further
market share in its school and higher education businesses.
NH
Outlook remains uncertain
Despite the positives, the outlook remains uncertain: in the US, State budgets
remain under severe pressure and in 2011 the new school adoption market is
expected to be a little lower than 2010, with Pearson’s participation rate also
down. On Higher Education, two years of strong double digit growth leave very
tough comparables with unemployment having peaked, plus the added impact
from regulation change in the ‘for profit’ sector. In International Education, big
government cutbacks in education budgets in developed markets like the UK are
likely to offset growth in emerging markets. On Penguin, we remain concerned
over the impact of e-books on publishers as price pressure increases and piracy
becomes more prominent (plus there is a specific profit risk from Borders)
NH
Forecast upgrades – consensus EPS likely to move to 78-79p
We would expect the 5% higher EPS base in 2010 to be rolled forward to 2011
expectations, pushing consensus EPS from the current 74p level to c78-79p. The
shares are likely to move back towards the top-end of the trading range over the
last 12m but whether they can break free above this is debatable given the risks
highlighted above. At 1050p on EPS of 78p, the stock would trade on 13.5x, retaining the healthy premium to professional publishing peers.
NH
but I think the rabble
NH
Alert: Oops…They Did It Again…
• FY10E Guidance Raised — In its pre-close trading statement, Pearson has
guided to 76p for FY10E EPS, c.6% ahead of previous guidance of 72p. This is a
positive surprise for Citi and consensus on 71.8p FY10E.
NH
• The drivers of the guidance uplift are important. While FT, Professional and
Penguin continue to deliver robust revenue trends, the primary driver of the
performance appears to be market share gains and margin improvement in US
Education. Despite a tough outlook for industry revenues, these factors could be
wild cards again in 2011E. Conversely, while the impact of the delayed Borders
payment was not enough to derail Penguin in 4Q, further potential problems at the
book retailer in 2011E are a potential risk.
BE
So, to summarise, Pearson’s brilliant.
NH
and we don’t own a share between us
BE
That’s how shrewd we are.
BE
The company we work for’s going gangbusters
BE
And we don’t bother picking up the stock, even though it was offered at a discount.
NH
(@Tuna – yellow for being the first person to moan and for being soooooo predictable)
BE
Straightforward retrenchment against yesterday’s high?
NH
although among the PIIGS
NH
Portugal’s 10-year is back to a record high
NH
on the lack of any agreement on the EFSF
NH
RTRS-GREECE DENIES DIE ZEIT REPORT, SAYS NO DISCUSSION ON GREEK DEBT RESTRUCTURING
NH
still I think you are right
NH
this is just a bit of profit taking
NH
was yesterday 31-month high?
BE
Yeah – something like that.
BE
Erasing three days of declines.
BE
Fallers are a mixed bunch.
NH
FTSE 100 off 22 points at 6,034
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC (IMT:LSE): Last: 1,873, down 53 (-2.75%), High: 1,881, Low: 1,859, Volume: 839.89k
Gkn PLC (GKN:LSE): Last: 223.10, down 5.7 (-2.49%), High: 230.60, Low: 223.10, Volume: 1.53m
Petrofac Ltd (PFC:LSE): Last: 1,647, down 38 (-2.26%), High: 1,694, Low: 1,647, Volume: 144.06k
NH
(10227 I think Denilson may be going too after his attack on Cesc in the Sun)
NH
Imps are ex-div I believe
BE
Oh yeah – it’s a Wednesday.
NH
(and note we beat Tuna to that

)
NH
let’s have a look around
NH
and i guess we should start with the retailers
NH
which has responded to the credit insurance supply email
NH
In light of recent comment on credit insurance cover, HMV Group wishes to clarify that, following the peak trading period, credit insurers are reviewing the level of cover they provide on the Group. Whilst this has resulted in the reduction in the availability of credit insurance to certain of the Company’s suppliers, our business remains a core channel to market for them. We continue to maintain excellent relations with our suppliers and have had no difficulty in obtaining stock.
Hmv Group PLC (HMV:LSE): Last: 23.50, down 2.75 (-10.48%), High: 24.75, Low: 22.75, Volume: 8.96m
NH
they aren’t having problems with stock
NH
because they don’t order much in January
BE
Exactly. They’re shifting whatever’s in the store room this month.
NH
(tuna – Cargill bid rumours in Tate. Pinned on the Mosaic spin off new)
NH
and which ever way you spin this
NH
admitedly if it had happened in the run up to Xmas
NH
it would have been really nasty
BE
So we have the full email, right?
NH
the one Pestowire didn’t give you
Top News from Top Sources. The BBC’s Business Editor, Robert Peston, has played in important role keeping the British public fully informed during these difficult times.
NH
he only provided a few highlights
NH
here’s the whole thing
NH
it comes from the head of credit and collections at Sony DADC
NH
which is the division that supplies DVD’s CD’s etc
NH
Further to my email last week, I need to advise you that our credit insurers have significantly reduced our insured credit limit on all HMV entities. Based on the current HMV balances, the limit is not sufficient to support any sales on an insured basis moving forward.
I have this morning met with the Chief Executive and Risk Director at the insurance company to understand the reasons for such a quick and drastic reduction. Due to HMV’s listing on the stock exchange, they are unable to divulge the reasons for their decision. They met with Simon Fox last week and whilst they have said that HMV has provided everything asked for, they are clearly worried following the public announcement that bank covenants may not be met. A further review will take place in 4 weeks time.
NH
In the interim, I am looking at other alternative options both with HMV, such as reduction of payment terms, and also using other credit insurance providers. The results of this will not be known for at least a week.
I can confirm that all orders dispatched up to and including Friday 14th January 2011 are covered by credit insurance. The exceptions being any item in query and a 10% “excess”. I would encourage a prompt resolution of all queries and my team will have been in contact with you about these. Where there is a long outstanding dispute, such as an rejected price query, I would urge consideration to looking at agreeing deals to get them cleared so at least some recovery can be made on the next payment run.
NH
If you pay marketing invoices to HMV, I again would urge caution and to double check that HMV has not deducted from us so that in effect you are exposed to a double deduction.
In terms of orders moving forward, there are 2 options:
(1) Agree to the “blanket” release of all held orders by my team so that these are released immediately. I will need an email from you confirming that you are aware that no credit insurance for these orders is in place and will be shipped at your financial risk.
(2) Manage the release of held orders on a daily basis through the held order report mechanism.
We can provide you with updated balances of your account with HMV and please make any such request to xxx
Please feel free to contact me if any of this is unclear or you have any questions.
BE
They also supply Playstation games, don’t they?
NH
retailers use suppliers to provide them with positive working capital
NH
ie they sell the stuff supplied before they pay for it
NH
but without credit insurance that becomes an issue
NH
I don’t think HMV will go under yet
NH
but this is a warning to Fox
NH
shut or sell lots of stores
NH
and sort this business out
NH
because you really need to pass April’s covenant test with flying colours
BE
The business, in total, is now valued at £100m.
BE
To put that in perspective, they paid £46m for Mama Group a year ago, then put an extra £20m into it.
NH
Nick Bubb at Arden Partners first
NH
The problem with credit insurance for suppliers to HMV is worrying, as it was this development that did for Woolworths and Zavvi two years ago and the only good news is that it has not happened before Xmas, ie this is not a busy time of year, and that suppliers still need HMV. But it is unhelpful to have a potential working capital squeeze ahead of the covenant test in April and any lingering hopes that HMV would pay a final divi have gone out the window. It also increases the pressure on management to make disposals and/or to break the group up, but we have our 25p target under review and unless Mr Mamut adds to his 6% stake it is hard to be optimistic about the outlook….
NH
Espirito Santo Retail Team
NH
now minus their banking team
NH
who I hear have just jumped ship
NH
Widely reported (now confirmed by the company) withdrawal of credit insurance, if true, is not that surprising. Is this Woolies all over again? Luckily for HMV, this has happened after the peak trading period, so it should be able to take the strain better than Woolies (which was hit just before Christmas). The other thing to bear in mind is that, for many suppliers, HMV is now the only scale outlet on the high street and a meaningful part of their business, so it is not as simple as these suppliers just going elsewhere – they will need to share the working capital strain until HMV had dealt with its potential covenant breach. However, until this issue is resolved, the shares are, in our view, uninvestable.
NH
and finally a bit of Seymour Pierce
NH
We note that Robert Peston’s blog and most of the press this morning report that two of HMV’s suppliers can no longer get credit insurance. The credit insurers have reduced the credit limit on all HMV suppliers. Lack of credit insurance means the supplier trades at its own risk, though January is the time when HMV is reducing stock rather than building and so is unlikely to be an issue in short term. It may be more of an issue if the situation has not changed by the autumn when HMV builds stock ahead of Christmas. This story may dampen sentiment on the shares and follows HMV’s announcement on 5th January, when it issued a profit warning, that it may breach its banking covenant related to rent. We have a Sell recommendation.
NH
she’s banned henceforth
NH
Kate Calvert | Retail Research
NH
we need to cut to some RAW
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
Tate & Lyle PLC (TATE:LSE): Last: 565.00, up 27 (+5.02%), High: 567.00, Low: 538.50, Volume: 2.59m
NH
which is rather convenient
NH
given the overnight news
NH
Cargill agrees $24bn spin-off of Mosaic
By Gregory Meyer and Helen Thomas in New York and Javier Blas in London
Published: January 19 2011 01:15 | Last updated: January 19 2011 02:00
Cargill, the largest privately held US company, has agreed to spin off its 64 per cent stake in fertiliser producer Mosaic in a $24.3bn deal that could satisfy a restive shareholder.
The grain-trading-to-hedge funds Minnesota company has owned a majority of Mosaic since its 2004 creation.
NH
The 146-year-old Cargill is still controlled by about 80 members of the Cargill and MacMillan families. It said that the transaction would keep it privately held and satisfy the “diversification and distribution needs” of charities formed after the 2006 death of Margaret A Cargill, a shareholder and granddaughter of founder William Cargill. Her charitable trusts, which owned 17 per cent of the company, had been lobbying to sell the stake.
BE
So Cargill’s spinning off the stake.
BE
It has no effect on its finances.
NH
(yes Tk. I live the woman who invested £800,000 in Northern Rock because it was in the North and called Rock. How did she ever get £800,000? beats me)
BE
How does this make a Tate bid more likely?
BE
I’d say it makes one slightly less likely.
BE
Given management will have their hands full.
NH
unless of course there is another bid out there
NH
and Tate is now a cleaner business
NH
with the new man from Reckitt in charge
BE
And, on that theme, there’s now another name being attached to the Tate rumour.
BE
Archer Daniels Midland Company
BE
Dunno if that makes more sense, or less sense, or any sense at all.
BE
And, to inject a note of pedestrian logic into all this ……
BE
Aren’t we waiting for the 2011 HFCS price settlements?
NH
not something I follow
NH
I am very happy to say
BE
Oh, I’ll have to refresh my subrsciption to Corn Milling Digest
BE
The reason is that ‘the News’ (specifically its ‘Ingredients Market News’ supplement)
tends to be the journal of record on the progress of the corn sweetener pricing
rounds in the USA, which we think determine 10-15% of Tate & Lyle’s annual profits1
and therefore do much to influence the trajectory of the share price at the turn of the
year.
NH
ROK don’t call Tate a sugar business. you will get us in trouble. they are a food technology business. come on man. get with things
BE
The progress of the sweetener round has been more than usually visible this year.
The big corn millers in the form of ADM, Cargill, Tate and Corn Products opened the
batting on October 7 with their customary letters to customers. The initial ask was for
a 3-3.5 cents/lb price increase on the core sweetener products of HFCS (High
Fructose Corn Syrup) 42 & 55.
BE
Corn prices subsequently exploded, which inspired a second round of letters, on 13
October, asking for a 4-4.5 cents price increase, which we think is equivalent to a
c.25% year-on-year price increase on HFCS. The corn millers made this an
‘exploding’ offer by adding a rider that there would be a further one cent price
increase on contracts signed after the 29 October.
BE
That’s all from Investec a few weeks ago.
NH
in much the same way ROK one cannot call Provident Financial a doorstep lender
BE
I could go on, but won’t.
NH
yeah that’s more than enough
NH
any comment on the Mosaic spin off?
NH
Billiton always linked with that business
Bhp Billiton PLC (BLT:LSE): Last: 2,494, down 7.88 (-0.31%), High: 2,525, Low: 2,486, Volume: 1.73m
BE
Oh – hang on, yes I do.
BE
Within 15 months, approximately 157 million shares are to be
resold through the secondary market (including an estimated 79
million shares immediately following the closing of the transaction).
Following a 2.5-year period after the close, the remaining 129
million shares would be transferable and available for resale in
three annual equal instalments.
BE
Mosaic should benefit through greatly increased share liquidity, as
its public float will eventually increase to approximately 446 million
shares from approximately 160 million shares currently, as well as
add to the company’s strategic and financial flexibility while keeping
total shares outstanding and earnings per share unchanged. The
company is also expected to be added to the S&P 500 Index.
BE
Our current multiple does not incorporate an expectation of a
takeover of Mosaic. We always believed that Cargill would be likely
sellers, and this transaction is in line with that belief.
BE
Ok – I’m bored of this now. Can we move on?
NH
Tate is a food technology business everyone
NH
and Provident Financial is not a doorstep lender
NH
it provides conumer credit at very competitive prices
NH
so sub prime customers
BE
Also: Portakabin is a trademark of Portakabin.
BE
And don’t call vaccuum cleaners Hoovers.
BE
Oh, and Teflon. Bloody Teflon.
BE
That’s another one with an over-active letter writing policy whenever you mention the word.
NH
did you see the Pesto programme last night
NH
lots of swirling cloud over the Wharf
BE
Right. Sounds incisive.
NH
but I did wake up when Gillian came on
NH
she had £800,000 in savings somehow
NH
can’t think how she came by it
NH
and decided to put it in Northern Rock
NH
because it was from the North
NH
deserved to loose every penny
NH
and to compound the error
NH
when she got all the money out of the Rock
NH
sorry building society
NH
it must have been made up?
BE
Oh. I see what’s coming.
BE
Neat. I can skip through Pesto to watch Wolf.
NH
there is one funny bit
NH
when they ask all the talking heads
NH
some pretty dismal figures from Kesa today
Kesa Electricals Plc (KESA:LSE): Last: 137.30, down 13.5 (-8.95%), High: 142.50, Low: 136.90, Volume: 4.91m
BE
Comet’s the problem, right?
NH
but Comet dragged them down
NH
results will be toward the low end of expectations
NH
not sure what the future is for Comet
BE
Too expensive to close, apparently.
NH
can’t they just walk away
BE
Is it that easy? The sellside are not convinced.
NH
right let’s have a look at the Comet numbers
NH
(urgeview I would have spread it around a bit and wouldn’t have had it all in cash. Half would have been put in GKP for a start)
NH
Kesa (Add recommendation under review): A shock today that Kesa has brought forward its Q3 statement from next month and issued a profit warning, based on very poor trading at Comet in the UK and also in Spain. The activist shareholder Knight Vinke, with an 11% stake, will not be pleased, despite the strong balance sheet and solid trading in France. The statement that UK trading has softened significantly since the VAT rise on Jan 4th (despite a soft comp that week vs snow a year ago…) will also spook the market about the outlook for other big-ticket retailers, including Dixons (Neutral) and on the read-through we reiterate our Reduce view on Home Retail (210p target). We have our 175p target on Kesa under review…The conf call at 7.45am focused on store downsizing and other cost reduction plans for Comet, but it is disappointing that the business will be in a small loss for the year
NH
that was from Nick Bubb
NH
and this is from the company
NH
Comet delivered record trading from Boxing Day through to the New Year weekend, but this strong performance failed to offset the weaker sales seen early in December due to competitive trading and adverse weather conditions. Overall revenue for the period declined by 6.5 per cent in local currency and by 7.3 per cent on a like-for-like basis. Gross margin declined by c.140bps reflecting the highly promotional nature of the market over the period. Web-generated sales grew by only 3 per cent, reflecting some disruption during the introduction of the new software platform in November. Since the introduction of the VAT increase on 4 January we have so far seen sales trends soften. In the light of these factors we are now anticipating that Comet will deliver a small retail loss for the year.
BE
So it looks pretty obvious that Comet’s losing market share.
NH
Web-generated sales grew by only 3 per cent, reflecting some disruption during the introduction of the new software platform in November.
NH
didn’t that hit Dixons too
NH
are they using the same software?
BE
Why did both major retailers decide to refresh their websites in November?
BE
And they both made a bork of it?
BE
Hang on – quick comment from Merrill then let’s push on.
BE
The earnings downgrades that we have put through for both Kesa and its
competitor Dixons recently continue to support our negative view on the
electricals sector and highlight that the structural pressures on electrical retailing
(overspacing, online penetration), particularly in the UK, are increasing. Having
said that, we are aware of the strategic value of Kesa with Darty France
accounting for an estimated c.130% of the group’s profits this year, and that
Kesa’s attractive net cash position and c.€300mn of real estate make it screen
well on LBO models. However we think this risk is already partly reflected in our
revised PO of 150p (based on a SOTP), implying a 12.1x cal.11e P/E, a premium
of 20% to the UK General Retail sector.
BE
Interesting figure that. Darty provides 130% of the group profit.
NH
to Wednesday’s other takeover story
Soco International PLC (SIA:LSE): Last: 377.00, up 12 (+3.29%), High: 383.60, Low: 366.90, Volume: 994.71k
NH
a number of NOC’s being linked to them
NH
a bid is very possible
NH
although perhaps the mooted price of 550p a share is too low
NH
these NOC’s have a very low cost of capital
NH
and are hungry for production
BE
The timing of this all makes sense.
BE
Vietnam’s due to start producing in August.
BE
And there’ve been a couple of dry wells in the Congo, which has taken some of the steam out of the price.
BE
And, as you say, management have never hidden the fact that they’d welcome a bid.
NH
SOCO has a history of monetizing assets through disposals. Now,
however, we believe the best way to monetize the Vietnamese assets is
through a disposal of the entire company. With net production ramping
up to almost 35,000 bopd by end 2013 and little left in the exploration
tank, we believe that SOCO will be firmly on the radar of NOCs. With
management highly leveraged to the share price through holdings and
options we believe it could be in everyone’s interests for management to
entertain offers in excess of 400p.
NH
(CJ – I have a BA from the Open University!)
NH
With the third and final well in the DRC following the previous two and proving
unsuccessful, we see little value in SOCO’s exploration portfolio for the time
being. As such, negotiations over the value of the company, which lie in the
producing CNV field (SOCO 20%) and the under-development TGT field (SOCO
24.8%) could see SOCO’s and any buyer’s expectations closer aligned.
The TGT field is due to start production in July 2011 and ramp up to a net
c30,500 bopd by end 2013. Together with existing production from the CNV field,
this should see SOCO exit 2013 at just under 35,000 bopd. We believe this
production is attractive to a buyer as it is from just two fields (strategic value)
and is 100% oil. This compares to Dana, which when acquired by KNOC in 2010,
was producing 38,653 boepd (81% oil) from 36 fields!
NH
There are also grounds to believe that senior management would be inclined to
accept an offer. Ed Story (President and CEO) and Roger Cagle (Executive VP and
Deputy CEO) are both over sixty and have proved themselves at the top level.
Furthermore, we calculate that six shareholders (including Mr Story and Mr Cagle)
account for just under 50% of the outstanding share capital.
We have been long term sellers of SOCO which has underperformed our universe
of E&Ps by 62% over the past 12 months. However, with the assumption that
SOCO will not be around to see in 2012, we turn positive, raising our
recommendation to Buy and TP to 400p.
NH
Very possible a deal will happen
NH
but Evo might have lowballed the number
NH
KNOC is the name I keep hearing
NH
are they friendly with the Vietnamese?
BE
Er … pass. Will have to check Wikileaks.
BE
Sinopec also mentioned. Along with CNOOC.
BE
So that’s basically all NOCs.
BE
Yup. Pin the tale on the NOC. One of our favourite games.
NH
sticking with all I have a few thoughts from the sector watcher on a load of small bits and pieces
NH
Bahamas Petroleum – BPC LN
BPC has commenced a 2D seismic survey with the MV Osprey Explorer vessel, which should cover four of the group’s five licences offshore the Bahamas. The survey is designed to define drillable prospects, and is a follow-up to a 200 sq km survey acquired last year. BPC believes its extensive acreage has the potential to contain multiple super-giant traps, which according to its website suggests in excess of 500 million barrels of oil each. Can’t see drilling before the end of this year at the earliest, but it’s certainly one to keep an eye on – there are producing fields in nearby Cuba, south-central Florida and Mexico.
Bpc Ltd (BPC:LSE): Last: 16.50, down 0.25 (-1.49%), High: 17.25, Low: 16.50, Volume: 3.18m
NH
and some falklandy stuff
NH
Falkland Oil & Gas – FOGL LN
An update from FOGL, with the group currently mobilising a vessel in the Southern Falkland Basin to undertake a site survey and a possibly 2D seismic survey. The group still hasn’t contracted a drilling rig, although we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a rig-share with Borders & Southern towards the end of the year. The FOGL share price has been drifting down since the failed Toroa well last July, and I see nothing in today’s statement to reverse this trend. I’d continue to play the Falklands via the only group that has made a commercial discovery to date – Rockhopper.
Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd (FOGL:LSE): Last: 103.25, up 7.5 (+7.83%), High: 106.25, Low: 97.75, Volume: 567.95k
NH
and now we are off to Norway
NH
Faroe Petroleum – FPM LN
FPM has been awarded three new licences offshore Norway, adding to its total of 40 licences in Norway, the UK and West of Shetlands. The group has been awarded 30% of PL475 which contains the northern and southern extension of the Maria discovery. FPM has also been awarded 30% of PL590, also located north of Maria. Licence PL592, FPM 50%, is north of the Fogelberg discovery. Whilst there is unlikely to be short-term news in terms of drilling on these licences, they certainly add to the group’s growing Norwegian portfolio. Biggest short-term news for FPM continues to be the drilling of the huge Lagavulin prospect West of Shetlands, which is due to complete next month. FPM has a 10% stake in the 500m barrel prospect, potentially worth around 90p/share. FPM has a great portfolio of exploration assets and promises to be one of the busiest E&Ps over the next 18 months – I’d still be buying it.
Faroe Petroleum PLC (FPM:LSE): Last: 215.50, up 5 (+2.38%), High: 217.00, Low: 213.00, Volume: 141.70k
NH
we must touch on the figures from Apple
NH
forecast busting stuff
BE
About 2 or 3% last I checked.
BE
And the figures are, it seems almost too obvious to say, a mile ahead of forecasts.
NH
although these were even ahead of the whisper number
NH
16.2m iPhones were sold
BE
Mac sales up 23% to 4.1m
NH
ARM would have been 700p by now
Arm Holdings Public Limited Company (ARM:LSE): Last: 526.50, down 10 (-1.86%), High: 540.50, Low: 526.50, Volume: 1.29m
Imagination Technologies Group PLC (IMG:LSE): Last: 402.50, down 2.5 (-0.62%), High: 408.30, Low: 400.40, Volume: 61.14k
BE
Perhaps someone’s noticed that Arm earns about 30 cents per IPad.
NH
it’s all heading $1 a chip isn’t it?
NH
that’s what Goldman say
BE
Um – if you count only the top end stuff, that doesn’t exist yet.
BE
Then, sure, by 2015 they’ll be getting a buck a unit. Why not.
BE
And by 2015 we’ll all have jetpacks.
BE
Anyway, do we have any sober and reasoned response to Apple’s numbers?
NH
I have something from Seymour Pierce
NH
The Tech industry poster child continues to perform strongly despite the obvious challenges and there is little in these results that is not positive for consumer technology. The read across for UK technology hardware stocks is clearly positive. ARM (n/r) and Imagination (Sell) have (in)direct exposure to the success of iPads and iPhones but these results are not so great as to prompt us to revise our IMG estimates – after all much of the iPhone success is about market share and all of the alternatives will have ARM technology inside and most of them will have IMG technology in them too. For the likes of Wolfson (Sell), CSR (Hold), IQE (n/r), Carclo (n/r) the read across is predominantly one of positive sentiment even though some of their customers might just have lost market share to Apple.
BE
(@Phіl: tell your wife to jailbreak. It’s easy. I highly recommend it.)
BE
Here’s Merrill with its new Apple numbers
BE
Our thesis is unchanged – Buy on valuation, product trends, gross margin
tailwinds, and upward revisions to EPS estimates. Apple reported F1Q11 EPS of
$6.43 vs. our/Street $5.54/5.39 mostly on better revenue and gross margin.
F2Q11 guidance is conservative – revenue ($22 billion; down 18% Q/Q), gross
margin (38.5%; flat Q/Q), EPS ($4.90; higher than consensus, which is unusual in
our view).
BE
Gross margin rebounds and steals the show
The main reason for our consistently above consensus EPS has been gross
margin. F1Q11 was 38.5%, up 160bps Q/Q, above our 37.4% estimate, and
ahead of guidance by 250bps – better commodity costs (~125bps), leverage, and
product costs (freight, warranty, support). F2Q11 guidance for flat Q/Q gross
margin (lower volumes, no benefit from bumper accrual, more rational component
prices) is very conservative and we model 40.0% given mix (higher margin
products), improving iPhone/iPad yields, and still favorable component prices.
BE
Unit sales beat almost across the board
F1Q11 revenue was $26.7bn, above our/Street $25.0/24.4bn led by strong iPhone
and iPad units. iPhone units of 16.2mn exceeded our 15.6mn, with strong Y/Y
growth in all regions. We think Verizon in F2Q11 should boost sales, while
maintaining ASP/profit. iPad units of 7.3mn was above our 6.5mn estimate and
we expect iPad demand to ramp in the next several quarters (new products,
region expansion). Mac units of 4.1mn (+23% Y/Y) beat our estimate on strong
MacBook Air and Pro, somewhat offset by slightly lower desktop units.
BE
Moving estimates higher; Price Objective to $450
We are raising our F2011 and F2012 EPS estimates to $23.74 and $28.58, from
$20.78 and $24.14, on higher revenue and gross margin assumptions. See
Figure 3. Our PO goes to $450 based on 14 times our C2012E adjusted
NOPAT/share estimate of $28.29 plus $64 in net cash. Maintain our Buy rating.
NH
who have been buying these put options
NH
Bearish bets on Apple’s stock price surged last Friday, the final day of trading before the company announced that Steve Jobs, its chief executive, was to take a medical leave of absence.
Apple’s shares have more than tripled in value in the past two years, and traders said the action could have reflected an attempt by investors to protect themselves ahead of the group’s earnings report on Tuesday.
However, the activity also raised questions among traders over whether news about Mr Jobs’ health had leaked and could stir the debate over Apple’s obligations to disclose information about its chief.
NH
could be people hedging ahead of the numbers of course
NH
The number of outstanding positions in such options, known as “open interest”, rose by 6,091 to 40,996 on Friday, representing the biggest one-day jump since the contract began trading a little more than a year ago.
“That’s the kind of volume we would normally see with a put option closer to the underlying price of the stock,” said Ryan Dietrich, a Schaeffer’s Research strategist.
NH
On Tuesday, Apple’s shares fell as much as 6.5 per cent to $326 in early trading, recovering to close out the day at $340.65, down 2.3 per cent. That tumble in the share price sharply boosted the value of put options with the $320 strike price. They rose more than 800 per cent to a high of $5 at one stage, up from Friday’s close of 54 cents, before closing at $1.40.
BE
I’m not totally convinced by the correlation and causation link here.
BE
Rumours are what they are. Back engineering rumours out of trading data seems a bit of a construct.
NH
I’m shocked that you think someone would do that
BE
Oh, I’m talking hypothetically. Obviously.
BE
In no way am I criticising the story. Or the FT. Or Pearson. Or indeed anything, ever.
NH
did I mention they had a really good upgrade out today?
Pearson (PSON:LSE): Last: 1,064, up 58 (+5.77%), High: 1,078, Low: 1,036, Volume: 3.21m
NH
Tony Tassell has just popped over
NH
to point out an interesting story on Reuters
NH
RUSSELS, Jan 19 (Reuters) – Officials in Germany’s finance
ministry are preparing an emergency plan to handle the fallout
if Greece defaults or needs to restructure its debt, sources
with direct knowledge of the matter said.
One source close to the finance ministry said German civil
servants were analysing what a Greek restructuring would mean
for German banks as well as the stability of the euro zone.
The finance ministry said it had no comment.
BE
Hang on – wasn’t that denied already?
NH
one in the German press
NH
reuters have just run that
NH
and you know what they say
NH
until the government have denied it
NH
a few other things to look at
NH
to launch a massive price war
NH
to wrestle bank market share
NH
it would only cost 10% of profits
NH
worth every penny according to the analyst
NH
Tesco should reposition on UK pricing. Rolling industry trends forward sees Tesco lose strategic position, puts returns under pressure and sees the competition gain strength. A major repositioning would cost Tesco proportionately less than the competition (c10% of group profits vs c60% at Sainsbury), would hurt competitor’s cash flows more and would bring an end to industry over expansion. The competition are happy with the status quo, so Tesco should do what the competition fear and act in the long term interests of all its stakeholders. It is rational for Tesco to do this, it has a new CEO and the macro environment is right. Tesco has a legacy of price repositionings coinciding with a change of management.
TESCO Plc (TSCO:LSE): Last: 406.70, down 2.3 (-0.56%), High: 409.35, Low: 406.00, Volume: 7.49m
NH
with a massive price war
NH
that wipes 10% off profits
BE
I don’t get what the angle is here.
NH
The current space war is costing
the Big 4 over £4bn in capex pa, including c£2bn for Tesco (see “Capital Wars”
3/11/2010). By lowering industry profits and cash flow, Tesco can make new
stores unviable for the competition while protecting its own long term returns.
Tesco can then curtail its UK openings and harvest cash flow to invest overseas. A
repositioned UK Tesco could generate more cash post capex than now.
NH
Will Tesco do it? We are not changing forecasts, but we are highlighting the
crash to industry profits if Tesco repositions. We are also saying that the prospect
of Tesco doing this is rising as performance deteriorates. Sector share prices
would get hit very hard, but Tesco would emerge as a clear winner and its shares
would rerate after the market had digested the implications of such a bold move.
NH
the OFT might have something to say
BE
Well, yes. It’s a bold prediction, I’ll give him that.
BE
And Tesco probably need to do something to maintain the growth perception.
BE
But destroying the cartel?
BE
Scorched earth management?
BE
Extreme. Very extreme.
NH
sticking with the retailers
NH
but something a bit more down to earth
NH
Morgan Stanley have downgraded Morrisons today
NH
A contrarian call: Morrisons may still be one of the
most popular stocks in the European Food Retail
industry with sell-side analysts, but we are becoming
increasingly concerned about its prospects in the short,
medium and longer term.
NH
Consensus forecasts for FY 2011/12 seem too
ambitious to us: Morrisons’ trading momentum
deteriorated through most of 2010 and the business is
now delivering very little LfL growth. With no new space
at all opened in 1H FY 2010/11, we struggle, therefore,
to see how the business is going to deliver much top-line
growth in the coming year. Despite this, consensus is
currently looking for 10% profit growth in FY 2011/12.
NH
Our regional analysis suggests that Morrisons
could be the big loser in the ‘race for space’: Our
analysis suggests that there is four times more grocery
space per capita in the planning ‘pipeline’ in some
regions of the UK than in others. Unfortunately for
Morrisons, most of the space looks set to open in areas
where it currently has high market share, making it
particularly vulnerable to both cannibalisation and
competitor openings.
NH
Absolute downside limited by property backing and
strong balance sheet, but we recommend switching
to Sainsbury: With an estimated £8.6 billion of property
backing, a strong balance sheet and a share buyback
possible, we don’t see Morrisons’ shares collapsing.
However, we do think that investors should look to
switch to Sainsbury, which enjoys similar property
backing but has much better prospects, in our view.
Wm Morrison Supermarkets P L C (MRW:LSE): Last: 267.90, down 3.1 (-1.14%), High: 268.50, Low: 262.00, Volume: 6.59m
NH
anything more to look at?
BE
Anything more to say about Smith & Nephew on top of the blog post already up?
BE
As in, Merrill’s pulled coverage.
Smith And Nephew Plc (SN.:LSE): Last: 714.00, no change, High: 721.50, Low: 710.00, Volume: 2.34m
NH
they always do this now
NH
when there’s evil bid speculation
NH
they then talk about said bid rumours for the next four pages
BE
Right. That’s the Bank of America influence I guess. In times past, Merrill wasn’t adverse to a bit of speculation.
NH
who have drawn up a massive S&N Biomet merger plan
BE
(Sorry: averse not adverse. Typo.)
NH
and have been trying to get to the two sides to meet
NH
for very innocent drinks in New York
BE
Yes. Shooting the breeze.
BE
Nothing suspicious in that.
NH
we just need to mention the really good results from Pearson
Pearson (PSON:LSE): Last: 1,071, up 65 (+6.46%), High: 1,078, Low: 1,036, Volume: 3.31m
NH
profit forecasts being upgraded apparently
NH
on emplyment and average earnings
NH
The labour market data are a mixed bunch, but overall they do not significantly change our suspicion that unemployment is likely to rise in 2011 in the face of slower growth and increasing job losses in the public sector.
NH
The best news saw claimant count unemployment falling by 4,100 in December after a drop of 3,200 in November to stand at a 21-month low of 1.4566 million. However, this was countered by unemployment on the ILO measure rising by 49,000 in the three months to November to 2.498 million.
Furthermore, employment on the ILO measure fell by 69,000 in the three months to November. This was the largest drop in employment since August 2009. Full-time employment fell by 37,000. Significantly, part-time workers now account for 27.3% of total employment, which is up from 26.7% at the end of 2009, 25.7% at the end of 2008 and 25.4% at mid-2008. This suggests that businesses are reluctant to take on full-time workers due to their concerns over the longer-term economic outlook. Meanwhile, it has already been reported that public sector employment fell by 33,000 in the third quarter, which is just a taster of what is to come
Labour market data may well be mixed in the near term, but we expect a modest deteriorating trend to emerge as 2011 progresses. We suspect that unemployment is headed up in 2011 as a consequence of slower, below-trend growth, rising business caution and public sector jobs being increasingly pared. Specifically, we forecast unemployment on the ILO measure to rise to 2.65 million by end-2011 and to peak around 2.75 million around mid-2012. This would see the unemployment rate rise to 8.4% by end-2011 and to a peak of 8.6% in mid-2012.
NH
There was some rare good news on the inflation front for the Bank of England as wage growth was stable at a muted level in November. This indicates that higher inflation and rising household inflation expectations are so far not feeding through to push up wages. The various measures of earnings growth were all in a 2.0-2.4% range, which is well below the 4.5% level that in the past has generally been considered consistent with the Bank of England’s inflation target.
However, the main test is yet to come – and future pay developments will play a critical role in determining when and how quickly the Bank of England will raise interest rates. We expect wage growth will remain muted due to workers’ weak bargaining position given high and likely to rise unemployment. This is the key factor underpinning our belief that the Bank of England may yet hold off from raising interest rates until the fourth quarter and then increase them only gradually.
NH
Meanwhile, the fact that average earnings growth around 2.0% is appreciably below the consumer price inflation rate of 3.7% (and even more below the retail price inflation rate of 4.8%) highlights the squeeze on people’s incomes. Indeed, with real wage growth negative, the major fiscal squeeze increasingly kicking in and unemployment high and likely to rise, it is hard to see consumer spending being anything else than limited in 2011.
NH
anything more from you?
BE
Have we mentioned Pearson’s results?
Pearson (PSON:LSE): Last: 1,071, up 65 (+6.46%), High: 1,078, Low: 1,036, Volume: 3.31m
BE
I believe so. Haven’t looked.
BE
Here’s Lorna Tilbian with a summary.
BE
Pearson has released an encouraging pre-close update in which it upgrades its
FY10 EPS guidance from 72p from 76p. The group reports that all of its major
businesses have performed well and have good momentum going into 2011. In
Education, Higher Ed has been good, offsetting pressure in Schools and
Assessment while International has been strong and Professional steady.
Advertising has buoyed the FT in Q4 while Penguin has delivered record results.
We are raising our PBT/EPS forecasts from £830m/74p to £855m/76p for 2010;
consensus is 72p. There are a number of moving parts for 2011 as Pearson
disposed of IDC part way through 2010 and has yet to reinvest all of the proceeds;
we forecast £830m/78p (was £815m/77p; consensus 74p). We retain our view that
sustained investment in digital/emerging markets positions Pearson well to benefit
as its markets recover. Our target price rises to 1162p (was 1146p) and our
recommendation is ADD.
BE
To all those moaning about Apple’s closed garden, I highly recommend investigating the following
BE
Let’s wind this up now.
BE
Happy Pearson Day everyone. See you tomorrow.