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Markets Live transcript 10 Jan 2011

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:36 on 10 Jan 2011. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT bryce.elder

NH
Hola
NH
and welcome to Markets Live
NH
one moment
NH
just finishing a phone call
NH
Bryce is here
NH
right I’m done with tthat
NH
just discussing the curious case of Smith & Nephew
NH
has there bid a bid or not
BE
Well, it’s a shambles isn’t it.
NH
yep
BE
Here’s the relevant bit of the UK Takeover Code
BE
an announcement is required when, following an approach to the offeree company, the offeree company is the subject of rumour and speculation or there is an untoward movement in its share price.
NH
well we had that before Xmas
NH
shares up 9% following a rumour in the Daily Mail
NH
and up 11% today
NH
after a report on Sky News of a bid approach from J&J
NH
and still
NH
no statement
BE
In case anyone wants to know what an untoward movement is, it’s this
BE
a price movement of 10% or more above the lowest share price since the time of the approach. An abrupt rise of a smaller percentage (for example, a rise of 5% in the course of a single day) could also be regarded as untoward
BE
So.
Smith And Nephew Plc (SN.:LSE): Last: 723.00, up 73 (+11.23%), High: 739.00, Low: 715.00, Volume: 8.46m
NH
hmmm
NH
of course the story could be false
NH
in which case
NH
surely the Panel or the FSA
NH
need to come up with a mechanism to clear this sort of thing up
NH
there’s a false market in the shares at the moment
NH
so someone should be forced to say either
NH
this story is rubbish
NH
or it’s true
NH
and then if needed provide context
NH
ie it’s stale and they won’t be coming back
NH
making a mockery of the whole system
BE
I’m increasingly of the opinion that the UK market should trade at a discount to others.
BE
Because the regualtion’s obviously faulty.
BE
It fails.
BE
We should just leave the UK to the Tilt guys, to cover along with Sudan and Kazakhstan.
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
NH
well resource stocks now account for a third of the FTSE 100
NH
why not
NH
(pakora – but this time there is a very detailed story from a reporter with a serious track record. this is isn’t flakey market report chat)
BE
(DLC: Yes, I think the takeover regulation is far superior in Australia, Canada and South Africa, to name but three.)
NH
anyway one interesting aside
NH
the advisers to S&N
NH
are the same as De La Rue
NH
JP Morgan financial advisers (along with UBS)
BE
Hm.
NH
and Brunswick do the PR
NH
in fact it is the same team at De La Rue
NH
obviously correlation does not equal cause
NH
but funny nonetheless
BE
A coincidence, certainly.
BE
However, we shall return to this theme later.
NH
yes
NH
I’m sceptical J&J could bid
BE
But for the moment, let’s take a deep breah and look at the wider market shall we?
NH
OK
11:13AM
NH
So
NH
we are done again
NH
two in a row
NH
FTSE 100 off 33 points at 5,950
NH
miners doing the damage
BE
Reason? China slowdown?
NH
not sure
NH
I was going to say dollar strength
NH
whatever
NH
they are all lower
Fresnillo Plc (FRES:LSE): Last: 1,503, down 53 (-3.41%), High: 1,568, Low: 1,502, Volume: 223.45k
Eurasian Natural Resources Corp PLC (ENRC:LSE): Last: 1,032, down 31 (-2.92%), High: 1,065, Low: 1,020, Volume: 633.26k
Vedanta Resources PLC (VED:LSE): Last: 2,372, down 76 (-3.10%), High: 2,431, Low: 2,364, Volume: 406.63k
Xstrata Plc (XTA:LSE): Last: 1,465, down 35.5 (-2.37%), High: 1,489, Low: 1,457, Volume: 3.75m
NH
and not helping matters
NH
is the situation in the Eurozone
NH
PIIGS all wider
NH
CDS wise
NH
and yields
BE
Ok – prices please.
NH
Sovereigns – Greece 1040bp (+13), Spain 365bp (+6), Portugal 555bp (+12), Italy 259bp (+3), Ireland 675bp (+12), Belgium 259bp (+10), France 112bp (+1)
This week has started where we left off on Friday, with banks and sovereigns widening. The market is nervous ahead of an important week for government debt issuance. Portugal’s bond auction on Wednesday, in particular, will be closely watched amid rumours that France and Germany are pressuring the Portuguese government to accept a bailout. The Markit iTraxx SovX WE has hit another record wide.
NH
that’s from Markit
NH
as for bond yields
NH
these are all 10 year
NH
7.18% for Portugal
BE
So Portugal’s selling paper on Wednesday.
NH
actually that’s improved on the day now
NH
spain at 5.57%
NH
ireland at 9.24%
NH
yes
NH
On Portugal
NH
that’s Wednesday
NH
and to put that 7% figure into some context
NH
a very good note from Gary Jenkins today
NH
looking at what happens when you get above that magica number
NH
and the answer is
NH
call the IMF and the EU for money
NH
This week is likely to be dominated by issuance from the likes of Portugal, Spain and Greece as the euro area debt crisis continues and peripheral sovereign bonds widened further on Friday. Portugal’s 10 year yield closed above 7% on Friday and the key is whether the rising yield trend continues and the 10 year stays above the 7% level. It took Greece 16 days and Ireland 20 days to request EU/IMF aid after their 10 year yields breached the 7% level, although Portugal has been through the 7% barrier previously and then saw yields retract somewhat
NH
They are due to sell between €750m-€1.25bn in 4 and 10 year bonds on Wednesday. The relatively small size may allow them to get the auction away, but with €20bn of issuance this year unless longer dated yields stabilise then the market may well start to expect that Portugal will have to seek EU/IMF assistance, and it might then become a self fulfilling prophecy. Not to say there is no demand for their debt as Bloomberg reports that they sold €1bn via a private placement on Friday although these were 2.5 year notes.
NH
The weakness in peripheral markets affected Italy and Belgium as well last week with the Belgian 10 year yield closing at 4.13% on Friday, 18bps higher on the day and 29bps higher over the week. The Italian 10 year yield widened 15bps on Friday to 4.79%. Spain was 4bps wider at 5.50% on Friday, Ireland’s 10 year closed 6bps higher on the day at 9.07% and the Greek 10 year yield was up 5bps to 12.60%. Belgian and Irish credit default swaps both closed at new record high levels on Friday, at 247bps and 623bps respectively.
NH
there you go
NH
oh and one final bit
NH
looks like President Trichet has fired up the SMP again
NH
The ECB was reported to be buying Portuguese government debt on Friday, on the same day as ECB President Trichet was speaking at a conference in Germany saying that “monetary policy responsibility cannot substitute for government irresponsibility”. Mr Trichet repeated calls for strict rules to enforce budget discipline within the euro area, wanting automatic rather than discretionary sanctions to deal with breaches of the stability and growth pact debt and deficit levels. While the ECB is doing its bit for allowing the functioning of markets it is clear that it cannot provide a long term or even medium term solution for the debt crisis and further use of the bailout mechanism is likely to be needed to give governments the time required to improve their fiscal position and regain market confidence.
BE
Thanks.
BE
As for the China Take trade surplus data, it’s worth reading this from our colleagues at Beyondbrics.
The Truth! Unvarnished. The price of rice always falls. Shanghai investors do not sell stocks. Torch protestors are vile.
BE
With perfect timing, Beijing on Monday announced a trade surplus for December of just $13.1bn, well below economists’ predictions and November’s $22.9bn. And, as Chinese officials proudly pointed out, the annual surplus of $183.1bn was down 6.4 per cent, the second yearly drop in a row. It won’t stop the US and European states campaigning for renminbi appreciation – but it gives Chinese leaders a little ammunition.
BE
Right – let’s push on.
11:20AM
NH
Where now?
BE
Back to Smith & Nephew I guess.
BE
So, since there’s no statement, the assumption is that J&J has not stuck in a formal bid.
NH
hmmm
NH
been looking at this
NH
and there are big hurdles
NH
anti trust is meaningful
NH
to such a degree that any of the synergies from buying S&N
NH
might have to be divested
NH
that said
NH
there would be other cost savings
NH
putting S&N products through the J&J machine
NH
that would save loads
NH
but
NH
J&J are being asked to pay a rich price for something
NH
they might have to end up selling large chunks of
BE
That’s all true.
NH
I have some facts and figures on the competition angle via merrill lynch
NH
any potential deal would face difficult regulatory hurdles in our view, with
potential concerns over the companies’ combined market share in the US,
Germany and the UK. We estimate that Smith & Nephew has a c12% global
market share in both hip and knee joint reconstruction markets, and that a
combined Smith & Nephew JNJ DePuy would have a 35-36% global market
share in hips and knees. In arthroscopy, we estimate SNN has a 24% global
market share and that a combined Smith & Nephew JNJ Mitek would have a
global market share of about 39%.
NH
and some valuation work
NH
We note that Smith & Nephew’s 90 day average price is 596p. A 20-30%
premium to its recent trading range, in line with similar medical device deals in
recent years, would imply an acquisition price of 715-775p.
A price of 800p would imply a 2010E sales multiple of 3.0x and 9.6x 2010E
EBITDA (Equity/EBITDA: 9.2x). At 750p, a potential offer would imply 2.8x 2010E
sales and 9.0x 2010E EBITDA. We would note that an offer of 800p would imply
a market cap of $11.1bn. At 3Q10, JNJ had net cash of $10.1bn.
We note that private equity acquired Biomet in 2007 for 5.4x trailing 12 months
sales and Smith & Nephew itself paid 3.0x for European peer Plus Orthopaedics
(also 2007). Zimmer paid 4.4x for Centerpulse in 2003
BE
Hm
BE
It’s an interesting theory after so many rumours about an S&N/Biomet merger though.
BE
I guess S&N+Biomet would be an easier sell for the antitrust authorities
NH
much easier
NH
I still maintain S&N have been looking at this
BE
And a tougher competitor for J&J.
NH
although the odds of confimation on that
NH
ZERO
NH
anyway
NH
a bit more comment on this
NH
then we should move on
NH
this comes from OliveTree Securities
NH
Worth noting that there would be significant anti-trust hurdles for JNJ to acquire S&N, there are significant overlaps in areas such as knee and hip implants. Given how expensive any S&N deal would be, a transaction would likely be reliant on synergies to make the mathematics work – with sizable disposals it is likely these benefits are eroded significantly. It should be remembered though that there are material central cost synergies to potentially takeout of S&N, reducing the central admin costs would be easy for a player such as JNJ. Whereas we think it is indeed likely that something is afoot regarding S&N, the path to completion is a complicated one, and the shareprice should reflect this. We also wonder why we have not yet seen clarification from either party
NH
Smith & Nephew has been a perennially rumoured bid target for a number of years- although the list of potential acquirers is relatively small. The specialists in the space (Zimmer, Stryker) could not do a deal from an anti-trust perspective, so it would be reliant on a mode diversified player choosing to bulk up in this area. JNJ is already a serious player though – it would again remain to be seen what level of divestments would be acceptable to make the maths work. JNJ, Stryker and Zimmer are all market leaders in at least one specific field in which S&N operates – all three would see material divestments, although it could be argued that as part of a larger diversified player, JNJ could stomach these better.
NH
you will note there
NH
That Zimmer and Stryker would also have competition issues
NH
there really aren’t that many bidders around for this
NH
and S&N’s recent performance hasn’t been great
NH
When a group of Private-Equity players (Blackstone, GS, KKR, TPG) bought Biomet in 2006, it paid 23x consensus PE and c15x EV/EBITDA, still some 50% premium to the implied S&N valuation. Of course this was done in a bull market environment though, and the private equity groups were forced to outbid S&N itself for the asset. Note also that the reconstructive orthopaedic markets have been declining since this time too – it is highly unlikely any multiple today would get close to these prices. Ever since this point, there has been talk that these Private Equity groups would look to acquire S&N to put the businesses together again as previously planned. Indeed, this was the rumour in the market pre-Christmas, but work we did shows that Biomet is still far too levered to be able to afford any bid for S&N, a deal structured in this fashion is highly unlikely. Given that S&N failed to acquire both Biomet and Centerpulse (sold to Zimmer), the company has been left as a “sub-scale” sitting-duck, and it has been perceived that it is now a clear target rather than acquirer going forward.
NH
Conclusions here is that bid rumours for S&N come as no surprise, and the sheer level of talk of this stock in the market over Christmas make it seem likely something is indeed at foot – but the transaction is complicated from an anti-trust perspective. JNJ will get asked to pay a top-end price for this asset, despite the potentially destructive nature of the divestments necessary, and it is going to be hard to see how interlopers such as Biomet, Zimmer and Stryker could also become involved.
NH
Right
NH
i’m done on this topic
NH
(value – we and others have talked to IR before and they told us there was no bid approach. we thus discount heavily anything they say)
NH
in fact value
NH
here’s what they told one broker
NH
back in December
NH
when the bid rumours were about
NH
they say the rumour of a bid comes round every four months, usually following a move higher in the share price. IR has an article from 1996 from the Times talking about a bid for the company which shows how long these rumours have been circulating. No real comment on what are the attractions of the S&N business to rivals but did say that back in around 2000 US peers were trading on relatively higher multiples than S&N which caused some to speculate they could bid for S&N. Does not really think consolidation is needed in the sector as it is quite highly concentrated – 5 players in hips and knees have 85% of mkt, 3 players in trauma with 75% and 4 players in endoscopy with 70%. S&N’s own focus on expansion is on new tech and distribution.
NH
I guess
NH
we will never know what has really gone on
NH
but the whole situation is unsatisfactory
BE
As I say. Total failure of UK regulation and disclosure rules.
NH
agreed
11:30AM
NH
OK
NH
time for HPC2011
NH
and in spite of a big fall in house prices during December
NH
Halifax still reckons prices won’t fall in 2011
NH
“Prices in the final three months of 2010 were 0.9% lower than in the previous quarter. This rate of decline is significantly less than the quarterly falls of 5-6% during the second half of 2008. House prices fell by 1.3% between November and December.

“Looking forward, we expect limited movement in house prices during 2011 but with the risks on the downside. Interest rates are likely to remain very low for some time. This will continue to support a favourable affordability position for those entering the market and limit financial pressure on existing homeowners to sell. Current signs that homeowners are becoming more reluctant to sell would, if continued, help reverse the imbalance between buyers and sellers. Nonetheless, uncertainty about the economy, weak earnings growth and higher taxes could put some downward pressure on demand.”

NH
That was perma bull Martin Ellies
BE
Canute banking.
BE
And is there any share-price reaction?
NH
not really
Persimmon PLC (PSN:LSE): Last: 442.40, up 4.7 (+1.07%), High: 446.30, Low: 435.80, Volume: 411.27k
Redrow PLC (RDW:LSE): Last: 129.30, down 2 (-1.52%), High: 137.60, Low: 127.70, Volume: 74.18k
Bovis Homes Group PLC (BVS:LSE): Last: 423.10, down 4.3 (-1.01%), High: 427.30, Low: 419.70, Volume: 34.69k
Barratt Developments Plc (BDEV:LSE): Last: 92.80, down 0.6 (-0.64%), High: 93.80, Low: 91.30, Volume: 1.89m
Taylor Wimpey Plc (TW.:LSE): Last: 33.69, down 0.35 (-1.03%), High: 34.10, Low: 33.51, Volume: 8.98m
NH
and Mr Ellis
NH
doesn’t seem to have read his FT today
NH
because he might not be worried about inflation
NH
but the PM is
NH
David Cameron has warned that rising inflation poses a threat to Britain amid warnings from economists that the Bank of England has failed to tackle the worrying trend.

The prime minister insisted he did not want the country to go back to the days when inflation was a persistent problem.

Investors warm to riskier new year bets – Jan-07

The recent figures – caused partly by a surge in food and commodity prices – were “concerning”, he told the BBC, because they were “well outside what the Bank of England is meant to deliver”.

NH
I guess though
NH
there’s not much the BoE can do about tax rises
NH
and rising commodity prices
NH
jacking up rates to 1% won’t do anything to stop that
NH
that said
NH
I can’t share the optimism of Ellis
NH
I’m with Howard Archer – house prices to fall 10% in some bits of the country anyway
BE
(@Value: thanks for the reminder. Smith & Nephew’s CEO Dave Illingworth’s due to start speaking at the JPM conference in California at 6:30pm GMT. There’s a Q&A. And it’ll be webcast on the company site.)
BE
Yeah – though we have been singing that song for quite a while now.
NH
I know
NH
but it’s a tune I like
NH
a lot
NH
The 1.3% drop in house prices in December and overall decline of 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2010 reported by the Halifax is fully consistent with our view that house prices will trend down gradually overall to lose around 10% from their peak 2010 levels by the end of 2011. Current mounting speculation that the Bank of England could be forced into an early raising of interest rates by rising consumer price inflation adds to the downward pressure on house prices.
NH
High (and likely to rise) unemployment, muted wage growth, an increasing fiscal squeeze, low consumer confidence, difficulties in getting a mortgage (particularly for first time buyers), a housing supply/demand balance currently firmly in favour of buyers and a house price/earnings ratio* still above long-term norms are a poor combination of factors for house prices. Low mortgage interest rates and the current stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers on all properties costing up to £250,000 only partially offset these adverse factors – especially given the difficulty many people face in getting a mortgage!
NH
There is also an increasing risk that the Bank of England could raise interest rates earlier than expected in 2011 to counter above target and rising inflation. Any early interest rate hike in 2011 would be bad news for the housing market and likely to weigh down on prices – not just the rate rise itself but the impact on potential house buyers’ psychology resulting from the fact that they would be facing rising interest rates.
NH
There are some signs that the number of properties coming on to the market is starting to dip, which could provide support to house prices. At the moment though, buyer enquires are slowing more than new houses coming on to the market. Meanwhile, although we still do not expect the Bank of England to start raising interest rates before the fourth quarter of 2011, we acknowledge that there is a growing and very real risk that rising inflation could lead to earlier action.
NH
when you weigh all that up
NH
it doesn’t look great for house prices
NH
does it?
BE
Nope. Of course it doesn’t.
NH
(JB – fair point)
BE
Since we’re on the subject, wasn’t there an update from Persimmon this morning?
NH
yes
NH
what did they have to say?
BE
Everything’s brilliant, apparently.
BE
New season’s started well.
BE
2010 pretax will be at the top end of the range.
BE
Pricing and margins remained firm since the last update in November.
BE
sales of 9,384 units
NH
(hamster – forgot about that)
BE
On a margin of 8%
BE
And debt down to £51m
BE
It’s all pretty positive stuff.
Persimmon PLC (PSN:LSE): Last: 442.40, up 4.7 (+1.07%), High: 446.30, Low: 435.80, Volume: 411.76k
11:40AM
NH
Right, Taxloss has mentioned BP
NH
and it’s to that we now turn
NH
stock down today
Bp PLC (BP.:LSE): Last: 482.56, down 9.94 (-2.02%), High: 486.70, Low: 479.00, Volume: 15.38m
NH
after some issues in Alska over the weekend
NH
oil leak at a pumping station at Alaska’s North Slope will force it to shut down 95 percent of its oil production in the region
NH
The North Slope produces about 630,000 barrels a day apparently
BE
Wow.
NH
not had much impact on the oil price though
BE
February Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose 55 cents to $93.88 a barrel.
BE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February traded at $88.62 a barrel at 1105 GMT, up 59 cents in the Globex electronic session.
BE
That’s via Dow.
NH
hm
NH
just thinking about this pipeline news
NH
I suppose it’s not that bad
NH
I mean there’s no environmental impact
NH
that we know about
BE
Right. No photos of oil-covered polar bears.
NH
and Prudoe only accounts for around 5% of production
NH
still the price has been a bit frothy of late
NH
Shell bid rumours etc
NH
hang on
NH
here’some comment from Oriel Securities
NH
This news is likely to be bad for sentiment for BP however given it appears there has
been no environmental damaged caused and this is a not a BP operated project it
should have little direct impact on BP beyond the short term shut in of Prudoe Bay
which accounts for c.5% of BP expected 2011 production and we retain our BUY
recommendation
NH
A detailed story can be found at http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article241066.ece
NH
completely unrelated to all of this
NH
there’s is also a cautious noting knocking around from Merrill Lynch
BE
Really? Ahead of the February strategy thing?
NH
yep
NH
ahead of that
BE
I thought everyone was saying “return to normalcy. dividend back,” etc.
BE
What’s Merrill’s take?
NH
one moment
NH
Strategic update: focus on LT growth potential
The recent US Spill Commission advance report, pointing to industry-wide root
causes for Macondo, has removed some uncertainties around BP’s future ahead
of the strategic update (1 Feb), in our view. Whilst there are still other open fronts
in terms of litigation/compensation, we now see investor attention focusing on (1)
management’s ability to unlock value and (2) LT growth potential post disposal
plan. To achieve this, we see a number of possible strategic routes for BP
including (1) deepening the collaboration with NOCs; (2) setting NA alliances to
reduce the number of GoM operated assets; and (3) further downstream
disposals. We see quarterly dividends reinstated at US$0.07/sh with potential to
introduce a share buyback programme once the disposal plan is complete.
NH
here’s the negative bit
NH
FY10 results: realigning production expectations
FY10 results (1 Feb) will be key to gauge the strength of the underlying business.
In the E&P segment, we see extended maintenance/safety reviews across the
board and the Chirag (Azerbaijan) field shut-in more than offsetting the oil price
tail wind. We expect this along with the ongoing asset sale (-100kboe/d in 4Q) to
result in a 10% YoY drop in prod to 3.64mmboe/d. In Downstream, we expect
lower Marketing & Trading contribution and extended maintenance to put some
pressure on divisional performance. All-in, we see 4Q adj NI (exc Macondo costs)
at US$4.36bn (-20% YoY), well below a thin Bloomberg consensus of US$5.48bn.
NH
Assuming slightly lower upstream volumes and higher prod cost, we lower our
2011-12E EPS by 1.5%. BP trades on 8x 2011E P/E, a 13% discount to peers. As
its path to recovery becomes clearer, we feel that BP should gradually close this
gap, particularly heading into the strategy presentation. Reflecting what we see as
reduced uncertainties on the Macondo process, we raise our PO to 550p. Neutral.
BE
Wow. That Q4 forecast’s a bit dramatic.
NH
yeah
NH
and that’s before Alaska
BE
There’s also a huge, 72 page note from UBS knocking about.
BE
Which also “signicantly reworks” earnings forecasts.
BE
Which I think means “cut”
NH
hm
NH
iusually does
BE
Yeah – between 6% and 8% off the EPS for outlying years.
BE
And they’re also doing the familiar, “buy, but actually don’t” argument.
BE
Raising target to 550p. But questioning risk/reward profile from here
We target 2012 EV/DACF of 4.9x, an 8% discount to the sector. We see value in
BP shares but now not markedly greater than we see in a number of other stocks in
the sector. There is risk around the ultimate Macondo liability, and clear headline
risk through 2011 and perhaps beyond. We fear that perhaps there is too much
hope value in February’s event but see this event as potential de-risking as upside.
NH
(mitch6000 – added to a focus list at Credit Susse)
11:51AM
NH
Moving on
NH
to our favourite web based retailer
Ocado Group PLC (OCDO:LSE): Last: 182.50, down 3.5 (-1.88%), High: 189.90, Low: 182.20, Volume: 455.65k
NH
and the mystery of its recent share price surge remains
NH
today’s trading statement
NH
contains nothing earth shattering
NH
growth of 27% over Christmas
NH
which given the snow is OK
NH
but not amazing
NH
and not enough to justify the current price
BE
Hang on …. what?
BE
growth of 27% for Q4?
BE
It was 29.8% for the previous nine months.
BE
So that’s a slowdown, isn’t it?
NH
it is
NH
but there was snow
NH
which in fairness
NH
does effect a van based operation
BE
Oh – apparently it was down to the one-year anniversary of adding Sunday deliveries.
BE
Which came in in September 2009.
NH
anyway
NH
not sure why I am defending the company
NH
is still generates no profit or cash
NH
doesn’t seem to be growing
NH
and is massively overvalued
NH
still
NH
there’s seems to be someone out there buying it
NH
and I don’t think it is short sellers buying back their position
BE
Right then. What do the scribblers make of it?
NH
Here’s Merrill
NH
which looks at the numbers
NH
Ocado Q4 and Christmas trading a little light of expectations
Against expectations of sales up 30%, for Q4 (to end of November) and
Christmas trading (4 weeks to 26 December 2010) to have fallen short of
expectations at 27.4% and 26.7% respectively is a little disappointing. However,
we’re not going to get too excited about the miss given the reported sales growth
is still strong. The group also gives a sales update for the Christmas week (up
43.5%) but as one week only and given the previous week was snow impacted in
the South, we’re not going to read much into that although it does show the
capacity is there to grow more strongly.
An internet food retailer that many believe is the second coming of Webvan. Loss making yet valued at close to £1bn on flotation.
NH
In Q4, the decline in average basket is loosely inline with Q3 at just under 1%, a
respectable result. For the Christmas week, only a total gross sales growth
number is given.
The group comments that profit for the full year should be inline with the
company’s expectations although doesn’t comment on where that sits versus
market expectations (c£20-22m EBITDA).
The group is due to report FY results on 1 February. There’s no conference call
today.
NH
and here comes the business model stuff
NH
first up Philip Dorgan now at Altium Securities
NH
Ocado has reported strong sales growth, but we expect this to slow to 16% in the current year. We think that Ocado will struggle to generate a profit over the next few years. It has sales of over £500m and doesn’t yet generate a return and we think that this is because the warehouse picking model is flawed. Investing in another expensive warehouse for £210m doesn’t make economic sense to us. We also suspect that the long term rate of growth in the online food market will be below the company’s expectations.
NH
Consensus expects Ocado to consume £115m of cash in the year just ended and next, at which point it expects the company to be profitable. We think that consensus is too optimistic on both fronts. Also, we don’t think that valuing the company on an EBITDA basis is correct, given the relative scale of its finance leases. The trouble is that Ocado has no earnings, or cash generation and its asset value post equity raise is just 30p per share. Also, it is definitely not Facebook. We believe that this is a fair starting point for valuation. We are therefore maintaining our Sell recommendation.
NH
there you go 30p a share
NH
thats the starting point for any valuation
BE
Ocado “is definitely not Facebook”. Can’t argue with that.
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
NH
and here’s Shore Capital
NH
and Clive Black
NH
with some good points
NH
The overall Ocado performance is broadly in-line with our expectations but the investment case does not change to our minds. The time when delivery for shareholders is reached through positive EPS and DPS is some years off bearing in mind the time and weight of the second customer fulfilment centre. We also note press reports that Waitrose (John Lewis Partnership) is entering the London market; will this impede Ocado in this market or is that market so large and expanding that Ocado can ignore its better known and key partner – we see Ocado as a Waitrose distributor? SELL.
NH
Waitorse are coming to get you
BE
Hm. So it’s the same old arguments.
NH
yep
NH
nothing has changed
NH
not with this update anyway
11:59AM
NH
Somone was asking about
Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC (CSCG:LSE): Last: 399.70, down 8.5 (-2.08%), High: 403.90, Low: 397.10, Volume: 867.70k
NH
which are finally back below 400p
NH
our take on this is
NH
management have decided they don’t want to sell at any price
NH
South African shareholders are backing them
NH
and there’s no deal
NH
even if by some mircale the Trafford deal is voted down
NH
I still can’t see management opening the books to Simon Property Group
NH
at a price below 600p
NH
which they won’t pay
NH
so no deal
BE
Yeah – that’s a fair summary.
BE
It’s over.
BE
Simon walks before Wesdnesday.
BE
Looks inevitable.
NH
yep
NH
Mike Prew of Nomura agrees
NH
CSC’s external and independent appraisers DTZ, have also calculated that, considering ‘the scale and quality of CSC’s portfolio’, a premium of
12.5-16% should be applied (on a sliding scale with the dominant out of town centres highest graded, followed by the dominant in-town centres
and three of the 13 having no additional premium attached). Based on the portfolio being sold on the open market today, a 12.5% premium
would increase the value of the portfolio by £801m, or 89pps.
NH
SPG thinks this is all wishful thinking, but its self imposed due diligence condition which it has made through public statements (the other bid
conditions of securing SPG Board approval and financing have been fulfilled) means this remains an indicative bid only. Agree or disagree with
CSC’s maths, but an ‘all up NAV’ of 625p is CSC’s Board view of the value of its business versus SPG’s indicative offer price of 425p (cum the
final 10p dividend so breaks down to 415p of new cash). The 200p spread means that CSC’s Board will not recommend the bid and not open its
books, and therefore SPG’s bid is likely to remain indicative. SPG has until Wednesday 12 January and is, in our view, more likely to shut up
than to put up.
NH
as for the Danisco deal
NH
not really looked to closely at that
NH
they were trading through the terms earlier
NH
after the chairman said something about there being a competitive process
NH
that said
NH
Danisco make some interesting stuff
NH
Locust bean gum
Locust bean gum, also known as Carob bean gum, is a natural derivative from the seeds of the carob tree cultivated in the Meditereean area. It is used for texturizing a wide range of food products.
NH
A cost-effective food stabiliser

Locust bean gum is a cost-effective and simple way to stabilise your food.

NH
they also make pet food
BE
Wow – their product page is awesome.
BE
I could spend hours on that. Probably will in fact.
NH
Danisco drives up the fresh bread standard
With new G+ technology, bread passes the squeeze test ten days after baking.

Danisco is ready with powerful, new bakery enzyme products that maintain the oven-fresh softness, taste and texture of bread for at least ten days after baking.

BE
So anyway, the idea is that Danisco management basically held an auction
NH
yep
NH
DuPont won
BE
Though I guess there’s still a chance of a counter from Dow Chemical and BASF, given the auction remained competitive right up until the death.
NH
12:05 10Jan11 RTRS-DANISCO CHAIRMAN SAYS WOULD BE SURPISED IF A COUNTERBID EMERGED TO RIVAL DUPONT’S AGREED OFFER
NH
I guess so
BE
Fair enough.
NH
but DuPont are big
NH
they have a JV
NH
and this looks to have been a proper auction
NH
never say never
NH
but I reckon this one is a done deal
NH
and for those who have not followed this deal
NH
a wee bit of comment
NH
from Olivetree
NH
Danisco is the world’s largest food ingredients maker and specialises produces specialty food ingredients, including Enablers (give textures to foods, 42% of sales), Cultures (to produce cheese and yoghurt, 15% of sales) and Sweeteners (10% of sales) and Enzymes (called Genencor, 33% of sales). Genencor is the #2 Global player in the subsector, with a market share of some 20%. Market leader Novozymes (NZYMB DC) enjoys some 50% market share. Genencor and DuPont are already JV partners in cellulosic ethanol-production ( a next generation biofuel), which started in 2008. This JV is only small though, each partner planned an initial 3 year investment of $140mm. It highlights DuPont’s desire to gain exposure to the surging fuel and gas prices. This holds for the whole acquisition, which will be seen as an effort by DuPont to diversify away from its more traditional chemical operations into food chemicals, and buys exposure to Global population growth

NH
Europe represents some 35% of Danisco total sales, with North America at 30%, Asia Pacific at 17% and LatAm at 10%.

Danisco has been a strong turnaround story in recent times, the company has consistently beat the street’s expectations with its last few sets of results, and in October 2010 announced a new set of financial targets, increasing EBIT margin from 13.5% to 15%. Many thought this was conservative but after struggling to meet the original lower target for so long, the upgrade itself was appreciated. The Enablers division has been performing strongly, and expected to remain so, Cultures has also been steadily improving, Sweetners has been struggling thanks to competition from China and Genencor showed a good recovery in 2010.

NH
DuPont stock was also strong throughout 2010, up c50% on the year. With $45bn market cap, the company is a broadly diversified chemicals business and human food is only a small part of sales. Anti-trust issues should therefore be relatively straightforward – although associated synergies will also be relatively limited.

This transaction should be relatively straightforward to consummate – with any anti-trust issues simple. Counterbids are possible from any of the large chemical companies, so cannot be entirely ruled out if any of these groups also desire exposure to the aggressive food growth dynamic. The JV between Danisco and DuPont would not be a poison pill to stop other competing, but it will be hard to compete with a player as large as DuPont, who rarely do acquisitions. Hard to see any interesting complications here – the target has run a robust process to get to this point, and the best price has won.

BE
Ok – thanks. And here’s RBS
BE
The valuation looks undemanding to us. Around 35% of Danisco’s EBIT is enzymes, and
enzymes companies currently command a high valuation (we note that Novozymes, the
largest enzymes company, currently trades on 31x Bloomberg forward P/E). However
Danisco’s chairman has been quoted by Reuters as describing DuPont’s offer as the “best of
several contenders”. We interpret this as meaning that several offers have already been
recieved, and therefore see it as unlikely that a new bidder, with a higher offer, emerges at
this stage. We believe the financial firepower of DuPont (US$45bn market cap), and the fact
that the offer has already been recommended, would act as further barriers. However we note
that Danisco’s share price is currently trading slightly through the terms of the offer, adjusting
for time value, implying the the market is assigning some probability to a higher offer
emerging.
BE
DuPont’s statement talks predominantly about Danisco’s attractiveness as a biotech and
enzymes company (DuPont and Danisco already have a cellulosic ethanol JV). We believe
that some food ingredients assets could subsequently be disposed of by DuPont in the event
of the transaction completing, although precedent suggests that DuPont may have to wait two
years before making material disposals for tax reasons. We believe many of Danisco’s food
ingredients businesses could prove attractive to other industry players, such as Kerry or Tate
& Lyle*. Danisco has four main food ingredients businesses: Sweeteners (contains material
xylitol operations), Emulsifiers, Cultures and Gums & Systems.
BE
We believe the most likely scenario is that DuPont acquires Danisco at DKr665 a share some
time in April. We see it as possible but unlikely that a competing bid emerges at a higher
price, and we believe the deal size, at about US$6bn, makes Danisco too large for most other
food ingredients players and the emergance of a break-up bid from private equity unlikely.
BE
Is there any read-through?
BE
None in the UK I can think of.
NH
Tate & Lyle
NH
here’s Evo Securities
NH
on possible read across
NH
We have been saying for some time that Food Ingredients is an under-appreciated growth area within the Food space. Now companies are putting their money where their mouth is. This is a seminal deal which demonstrates the increasing attractions of Food ingredients and bio-fuels.
NH
The transaction has some positive valuation readacross for Dansico’s peers Novozymes, Christian Hansen and Kerry Group – a world leader in speciality food ingredients. The US$6.3bn deal EV (incl. US$500m debt) represents 12.2x Danisco’s forecast EBITDA,a 36% premium to Kerry’s 9x 2011 EV/EBITDA valuation

NH
Kerry might be interested in picking up any food ingredient units which Dupont see as non-core. It could also mean that Kerry themselves might look to accelerate M&A. We have long felt that they could divest consumer foods (We value at €1.5bn) as acquisition currency for strategic Ingredient deals.As a reminder Kerry were the under-bidder for Chr Hansen before it was acquired by private equity in 2005. Kerry remains one of our top picks in the sector

NH
Readacross to Tate & Lyle. Food ingredients is a US$30bn market growing at 5%. We estimate that Tate has £500m of acquisition firepower to start building up their food ingredients business. What todays deal demonstates is that these deals wont come cheap. Corn Products recently paid 13x EBITDA for National Starch and Dupont are paying 12.2x forecast EBITDA for Danisco. This compares to Tate’s current EBITDA multiple of 7.6x 2011.

*** Readacross to ABF: ABF already have a JV with Dupont in UK bio-fuels which will complete in Summer 2012. The JV is called Vivergo and will be a major player in the nascent UK bio-fuels market. Food ingredients is 11% of ABF’s profits and the Dupont-Danisco deal will be helpful for our ABF sum-of-the-parts valuation

Tate & Lyle PLC (TATE:LSE): Last: 540.50, up 2.5 (+0.46%), High: 549.50, Low: 538.00, Volume: 586.82k
Associated British Foods PLC (ABF:LSE): Last: 1,152, up 2 (+0.17%), High: 1,165, Low: 1,149, Volume: 249.37k
BE
But corn syrup’s not really biotech and enzymes, is it?
Kerry Group Public Ltd Co (KYGA:LSE): Last: 26.29, up 0.33 (+1.27%), High: 26.55, Low: 26.13, Volume: 17.12k
12:10PM
NH
Time for some small cap corner?
BE
Sure. What’s occurring?
NH
well as noted earlier Carclo is up
NH
not sure why
Carclo PLC (CAR:LSE): Last: 312.00, up 64.5 (+26.06%), High: 344.00, Low: 278.25, Volume: 735.59k
NH
something called Noventa moving higher
Noventa Ltd (NVTA:LSE): Last: 14.00, up 2.5 (+21.74%), High: 15.00, Low: 13.75, Volume: 13.36m
NH
apparently on the back of this
NH
Noventa (Buy, TP £0.20, Mkt Cap US$115mln) – our favourite tantalum play is bid up 30% to £0.1450 (at the time of writing) this morning. Evidently the stock has been tipped in Red Hot Penny Shares. The stock is up just over 50% since we raised US$24mln for the company which was done at 9.5p per share!! The spot tantalum price is currently around US$117/lb and seems to have settled at this level. Tantalum has rallied from US$90/lb when we initiated on the stock.
NH
tantalum???
NH
what is that?
BE
Rare earth mineral, innit.
NH
(thank you Vintage – that would explain it. he has a good following)
NH
Oh i see
NH
very very popular with muppets at the moment
NH
oil is so 2010
NH
rare earths where it’s at
NH
and I hear
NH
some have been found in Kurdistan
NH
near something called Shaikan
NH
in fact
BE
Stop it.
NH
OK
NH
the sector is back
NH
and what’s he been looking at?
BE
Wasn’t there a Bowleven drilling result today?
NH
yes. he’s been looking at that
BE
That usually gets the exciteable types excited.
NH
The Sapele-1 well continues to deliver for BLVN, with mixed news from the deeper horizons. Firstly a reminder – the original well was announced early November and discovered 25-35 metres of net hydrocarbon pay in two zones, the Lower and Deep Omicron. Further news was provided in late November with an additional 6-8 metres of net pay in the Deep Omicron. Since then, the well has been drilled a further 1,000 metres deeper to over 4,500 metres, with hydrocarbon indications from all five Cretaceous objectives. However a note of caution – the total net pay from these horizons is only 8 metres, perhaps less than the market was hoping for, and it sounds like it is predominantly low-value gas.
NH
Further drilling deeper into the Cretaceous will now take place. Following this, the group may also test the Omicron discoveries. Difficult to say what this news means in terms of value, given the limited information available on likely recoverable reserves – all we know so far is that the Deep Omicron has estimated oil in place of 65-430 million barrels oil equivalent. The share price has had a dramatic run since the original Sapele discovery, up from 170p in late October to the current level of 395p/share, with a current market cap of £850m. No doubt the company and its brokers will try and put a positive spin on the news, but I wouldn’t be chasing it at these upper levels, if anything I’d be taking profits.
NH
Jeez
NH
£850m market cap
NH
wow
NH
and the sector watcher is right
NH
the company and its brokers
NH
are trying to spin the news
NH
here is Merrill
NH
Epsilon discovery opens up Cretaceous fairway
BLVN announced that the deepened Sapele well (Block 5; offsh Cameroon) hit a
further combined 8 metres (4m+4m) of net hydrocarbon pay at the Cross-Cut and
Epsilon (gas condensate) targets. The company is yet to provide volumes for the
discovery as the well continues to drill deeper. More importantly, this result (1)
confirms the prospectivity of the Cretaceous age sands in the block and (2) has
significantly de-risked the multiple leads/prospects already identified nearby.
NH
Block 5: Sapele has just scratched the surface
Block 5 seismic data points to a potentially transformational resource base and
the Sapele well has only scratched the surface of the block. BLVN has identified
over 20 leads/prospects in the block with a combined (unrisked) size that could be
multiples of the resources found. With tenders for extra rig capacity already
underway, we expect the exploration & appraisal programme in the coming
months to combine lower risk Miocene-age prospects (eg, Kappa/Gamma) with
high impact Cretaceous-age targets (eg, Alpha/Zeta).
NH
Upping resource estimates for Deep Omicron by 13%
In addition, management has increased the in-place resource estimates for the
shallower Deep Omicron find by c13% to 65-430mmboe (from 55-380mmboe).
The next step in the drilling campaign is to sidetrack the well at the Miocene level
over the next month to start appraising the Omicron (Lower & Deep) discoveries.
Re-iterating Buy rating; raising NAV by 65p
NH
Reflecting the Epsilon discovery (20p), the de-risking further prospects (+35p) in
the block and the increased resource estimates for Deep Omicron (+10p), we
raise our NAV/PO by 65p to a total of 460p. We re-iterate our Buy rating on the
stock. BLVN is one of our top picks in Euro E&Ps along with TLW and RKH.
NH
460p
NH
it would be worth over £1bn if it gets there
NH
any more small caps?
BE
Oh, just to mark the card on Carclo.
BE
It is, as noted on the right, a Schwartz tip.
BE
I have already picked my share of the year for 2011 – and you may be surprised to hear that it’s the same as the one I picked last year: Carclo, the producer of precision plastic products. In 2010, its share price gained 67 per cent – but I think there is much more to come.
BE
Carclo has invested heavily in “game-changing” technologies for several years. Now, I am seeing evidence suggesting that pay-off time has finally arrived. In fact, I believe we will soon witness a marked increase in profits.
BE
Meanwhile, someone was asking about Omega Underwriting.
BE
Someone who’s obviously more interested in the Lloyds market than me.
NH
oh yes
NH
Insurance Age broke this on Friday
NH
and they also broke the Brit deal
NH
actually
NH
this was another disclosure failure
NH
story around all Friday
NH
we picked it up late on
NH
and no statement
BE
Calls to the company were less than helpful as well.
NH
really
NH
did they deny it?
BE
I’ll have to speak again to our insurance person.
BE
But he definitely asked the right questions on Friday.
BE
And didn’t receive the right answers.
BE
BRITAIN: WHERE TAKEOVER REGULATION IS WORSE THAN ZIMBABWE.
NH
Private equity-backed Canopius is in formal takeover talks with London-listed Lloyd’s carrier Omega Insurance Holdings, The Insurance Insider can reveal.

The expansionist (re)insurer is understood to have entered into negotiations with Omega late last year.

According to a senior source, some investors would be willing to support an offer at 120p per share or roughly £290mn.

This would value Omega at 1.15x its estimated year-end net tangible assets of 104.4p per share, based on estimates from Numis Securities.

It is further understood that Omega is continuing to attract informal interest from a number of other potential bidders.

A discreet approach from Jeffrey Greenberg investment vehicle Aquiline was rebuffed in the middle of 2010, according to sources.

It is unclear what the proposed structure of a Canopius deal might be and what access to capital Canopius – majority owned by Bregal Capital – may have.

NH
that was the story
NH
from which there was no confirmation
NH
and i think we have some comment
NH
yep
NH
here’s Shore Cap
NH
OMEGA INSURANCE^ (OIH, Buy at 97p) – bid speculation – late Friday (7th Jan) there emerged press speculation (Insurance Insider) that Omega had been approached by unquoted Lloyd’s rival, Canopius, which was contemplating a 120p bid offer, valuing Omega at c£290m. This was confirmed this morning in a statement by the company which stated that it had received an unsolicited approach from Canopius proposing an offer comprising cash and unquoted shares…with no price indicated by Omega. The company went on to say that there was no certainty that an offer will be forthcoming and so business is carrying on as before.

NH
To us, this approach does not come as a surprise given: the quality of the underlying business at Omega, despite the recent losses; the underwriting platforms in Lloyd’s, the US and Bermuda; the level of surplus capital within the group and the lowly rating of the group (at a 5% discount to our 2010F NTAV with a 8.3% forward yield). However, in our view, given the capital raising in December 2008, of £130m at 140p, a considerable percentage of which remains unutilised, we do not believe that an offer of 120p per share will succeed. To us, the minimum price would need to be 140p per share, representing an exit rating of c1.4x our 2010F NTAV. We reiterate our BUY recommendation on Omega.

With M&A firmly back on the agenda in this sub-sector of the market, we continue to highlight the attractions of Chaucer^ (CHU, Buy at 51p) and Novae^ (NVA, Buy at 350p) to potential corporate predators. As for the larger insurers we would not rule out the possibility of corporate interest in Lancashire^ (LRE, Buy at 560p) or Beazley^ (BEZ, Hold at 117p), with the latter potentially vulnerable after its failed bid for Hardy^ (HDU, Buy at 272p).

12:22PM
NH
OK
NH
is Monkey about
NH
we have something for him on
Futura Medical PLC (FUM:LSE): Last: 80.90, up 3.9 (+5.06%), High: 80.00, Low: 77.00, Volume: 276.58k
NH
which if you don’t know
NH
is a sexual health group
NH
shares have been very strong of late
NH
and now we know why
NH
looks like they might get approval for
NH
CSD500
BE
Oh right.
BE
The erectile dysfunction prophylactic.
NH
that’s the one
BE
A johnny filled with Cupernol.
BE
This was in partnership with SSL, wasn’t it?
BE
Now with Reckitt I guess.
NH
yep
NH
and apparently
NH
there could be more news to come on
NH
PET500
NH
this product is being developed for premature
ejaculation as a topical spray and could see a commercial launch this year.
NH
that’s according to Matrix
NH
which put a note out on Friday
BE
Oh – right – sorry – it’s for prems, not droops.
NH
here’s the note
NH
We expect European product approval for CSD500 imminently, following a recent update from the company.
• We also expect further news flow around PET500 in the short term, this product is being developed for premature
ejaculation as a topical spray and could see a commercial launch this year.
• We retain our BUY rating with a target price of 120p.
NH
CSD500
If Futura receives full product approval and CE mark, which we expect, we see a launch this year. Given that Futura
potentially receives a high-teen royalty, we see a peak royalty to Futura of at least £15m – based on a 7% market share in
what were SSL’s key markets (including Europe).
Reckitt Benckiser, however, is a global company and we see Durex as becoming another power brand for Reckitt. Given its
strength in the US, we see Reckitt pursuing a US strategy for CSD500, which is not factored into our model. This would of
course require further regulatory work, but would also add significant upside to our DCF model. Successful CE mark approval
in Europe would allow Reckitt to launch into a large number of countries outside of Europe that recognise CE mark
NH
We believe a potential upside issue is whether Reckitt would be happy to pay a relatively high royalty rate on CSD500 sales
to Futura. In our view, there is a risk that Reckitt may prefer to buy out this royalty in the form of an M&A transaction.
Rating and valuation
We have a BUY rating for Futura Medical. Based on our DCF model we have valued Futura at 120p. The shares have
recently had a strong run in anticipation of the approval of CSD500, Futura’s first product, which is now licensed to Reckitt. In
the year-to-date, the shares have provided a total investor return of 120%.
BE
Well, there we are.
BE
(Taxloss: yes, that’s the general area I was aiming for. Sadly, my performance was lacking.)
12:27PM
BE
Ok – Neil’s on the phone.
BE
S&N related.
BE
So we’ll just hold on a minute for that to conclude before signing off.
BE
Just in case there’s any fresh information to share.
BE
Sounds like Emoticon guidance ….
BE
Still talking.
NH
back
NH
just going over Panel rules
NH
so the situation as things stand
NH
I believe
NH
is that if S&N aren’t in talks
NH
they don’t have to say anything
NH
however
NH
if J&J are considering something
NH
they have to make a statement
NH
but
NH
I still think
NH
this situation needs to be cleared up
NH
and the board of S&N surely has a duty to do that
NH
I surging share price
NH
and loads of bid rumours doesn’t help anyone
NH
the market
NH
staff
NH
customers
NH
and what’s the harm in saying
NH
yes we did get an approach
NH
and we knocked it back
NH
and the bidder has gone away
NH
can that really hurt
BE
I guess the problem is that, if they say they had an approach ….
BE
They open up accusations of sitting on price sensitive information when they were up 12% or so in early December.
NH
true
NH
they should have said something then
BE
There’s a bit of a “damned if you do and damned if you don’t” logic to it.
BE
Because, to be frank, they’re damned.
BE
Someone made a very significant mistake.
BE
Anyway, that’s all old ground.
BE
We’re done now.
NH
yep
NH
that’s it for today
NH
thanks for logging on
NH
cya tomorrow
BE
Yup – and thanks for all your comments. Afternoon all.
NH
bye
NH
and we didn’t even have time to mention to bearish notes
NH
on Autonomy
NH
shame
BE
They’ll hold until tomorrow.
BE
(Monkey: after-the-whistle yellow.)
NH
(TL will send)
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