Not that we think any of these indicators will have much of an impact on the last trading day before Christmas — but here’s a roundup of activity on Thursday morning:
Initial weekly unemployment claims:
In the week ending Dec. 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 420,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 423,000. The 4-week moving average was 426,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 423,500.
Despite the small increase in the four-week average, it remains below its levels from earlier in the year:
Personal Income and Outlays, November:
Personal income increased $42.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $43.3 billion, or 0.4 percent. In October, personal income increased $49.5 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI increased $39.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, and PCE increased $68.9 billion, or 0.7 percent, based on revised estimates.
Real disposable income increased 0.2 percent in November, the same increase as in October. Real PCE increased 0.3 percent in November, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in October.
That upward revision to spending in October makes it the best month in more than a year, and November spending was just shy of estimated 0.5 per cent. Also worth monitoring is the savings rate, which declined from 5.4 to 5.3 per cent.
Headline PCE price index increased by 0.1 per cent, and did the core PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and is now up 0.8 per cent year-over-year — bringing it in line with the latest CPI numbers.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $2.6 billion or 1.3 percent to $193.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 3.1 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.3 percent.
Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, had the largest decrease, $6.2 billion or 11.9 percent to $45.5 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $6.6 billion. …
Bigger than the expected 0.6 per cent decline, but owing mostly to the drop in aircraft orders.
The October revision to spending was a nice surprise, but there’s not much here to either worry or get excited about. New home sales are out at 10am, New York time.
Related link:
CPI yawn – FT Alphaville