Ok, it is time to get started with the hard data…

The Japanese PMI actually came out last night — ahead of the rest.

Since March, Japanese PMI new orders and production have been heading rapidly south. But most, if not all of this, reflects a nosedive in domestic car sales and production following the expiry of the eco-vehicle incentive program.

And this month’s PMI new orders, plus the (not always accurate) METI projections for the next couple of months suggest a big turn around over the next few months. In fact, Japanese IP momentum could swing from a negative 10 per cent per annum in November to positive 15 per cent per annum by early next year.

That would add nearly 2 percentage points to global IP momentum just by itself.

We are off to a good start, and from a surprising quarter.

Next up: Korea (midnight GMT), where production and orders have also been in a swoon for the past several months….

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Jonathan Wilmot, chief global strategist at Credit Suisse Investment Bank, is blogging at FT Alphaville for the day.

Please read this Credit Suisse small print.

This entry was posted by Guest writer on Tuesday, November 30th, 2010 at 23:30 and is filed under Capital markets, People. Tagged with japan, Jonathan wilmot, korea, PMI. Edit this entry.