To keep a running tab on how things are going we have a couple of friendly widgets:

The Heat Map

After each fresh PMI release, we will update our global heat map. Each country will be coloured according to whether its PMI reading was above or below 50. The colour code is fairly self explanatory – shades of red for growth and shades of blue for contraction.

But beware! Some of the countries below the 50 line may be starting to shift back towards growth – in which case their contribution to global IP may be about to swing significantly higher.

And what markets resonate most to is changes in momentum, and especially unexpected changes in momentum. So keep your eye on…

The Forecast Thermometer

Our current forecast is that global IP momentum will trough at around 5 per cent per annum in October/November and pick up towards 8-9 per cent per annum by Q2:2011, entirely consistent with a successful transition towards the “expansion” phase of recovery (see previous post).

We expect some of this pick up to be visible by December (our forecast is 6.5 per cent per annum), with our best guess for April currently at just under 9 per cent per annum.

The forecast thermometer will keep score as each November PMI is released. If the new orders number is materially above or below our expectations, we will then use a simple model to translate that into a new forecast for global IP momentum in December, with the thermometer indicating whether – based on the data so far – we are running higher or lower than forecast.

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Jonathan Wilmot, chief global strategist at Credit Suisse Investment Bank, is blogging at FT Alphaville for the day.

Please read this Credit Suisse small print.

This entry was posted by Guest writer on Tuesday, November 30th, 2010 at 23:00 and is filed under Capital markets, People. Tagged with credit sussie, gdp, global growth, Jonathan wilmot, PMIs. Edit this entry.