You know how we feel about forecasting around here, so please don’t believe anything you’re about to see take the findings of this chart with a rather large grain of salt:
These are the projections from a survey of 43 private sector and academic macro forecasters conducted by the Philly Fed. The column labeled “previous” indicates the projections from the same survey when it was done three months ago.
For a chart like this, it is probably more interesting to look at the quarterly changes in the projections as an indicator of economist sentiment than to the projections themselves (especially given that substantial changes in the forecasts from quarter to quarter say nothing flattering about the forecasters’ abilities, but never mind).
This time round, sentiment has deteriorated a bit, with lower projections for GDP growth in Q4 and the early part of next year along with 39,000 fewer jobs added per month than was previously predicted.
The Philly Fed also notes that the forecasters have started to coalesce around a range of 2.0-2.9 per cent expected GDP growth for next year, with fewer of them expecting either no growth or a shocking upside surprise of above 5 per cent growth.
And if you’re curious, here’s the chart for inflation:
Related links:
The 40% Rule – Real Time Economics
Too bullish, too bearish, whatever… – FT Alphaville
Can we predict a financial crisis? – FT Alphaville