The key takeaway is that the numbers are unlikely to be sufficiently strong to get the unemployment rate down and that’s one of the key reasons why the FOMC has restarted its asset purchase program. +150k would be a game changer for FX market and be sufficient to see investors take profit on their USD shorts. A weaker number would only add to the sense that QE is here to stay. Moreover, with European and Asia growth continuing to show signs of decoupling from the US, it seems unlikely that the USD will benefit from a sub-consensus number. Further USD weakness is expected until the pull of fair value becomes more acute.

This is worrying. It tempts me to look for a shake-out. But let us not forget that yields rallied >50bp after that August08 survey/payrolls. Sometimes consensus is right (it is just very unsettling to be in their company). RBS Economics, FX & Rates Strategy

I know everybody’s saying this is a positive jobs report, but the official release reads in a very depressing way: http://bit.ly/c4GYiG

The so-called broader unemployment rate remains stuck at 17%. This includes folks who have stopped looking for work and those who have settled for part-time jobs. Also on the downside: 42% of those unemployed — 6.2 million folks — have been out of work for more than six months. So, big headline, but some of the internals are still not terribly pretty.

Here’s one thing from the report that the markets will like. The forward leaning “temp workers” area continues to grow:

Within professional and business services, employment in temporary help services continued to increase in October, with a gain of 35,000. Temporary help services has added 451,000 jobs since a recent low in September 2009.

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons, at 14.8 million, was little changed
in October. The unemployment rate remained at 9.6 percent and has
been essentially unchanged since May. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men
(9.7 percent), adult women (8.1 percent), teenagers (27.1 percent),
whites (8.8 percent), blacks (15.7 percent), and Hispanics (12.6 per-
cent) showed little change in October. The jobless rate for Asians was
7.1 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and
over) was about unchanged over the month at 6.2 million. In October,
41.8 percent of unemployed persons had been jobless for 27 weeks or
more. (See table A-12.)

Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 64.5 percent, and
the employment-population ratio, at 58.3 percent, edged down over the
month. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (some-
times referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell by 318,000
over the month to 9.2 million, partially offsetting large increases in
the prior 2 months. These individuals were working part time because
their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a
full-time job. (See table A-8.)

About 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force
in October, up from 2.4 million a year earlier. (The data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, want-
ed and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in
the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they
had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
(See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged
workers in October, an increase of 411,000 from a year earlier. (The
data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not
currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available
for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons marginally attached to
the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Big Jobs Number, but what’s under the hood? Headline still 9.6%? Doctors?

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Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 64.5 % and the employment-population ratio, at 58.3 % edged down over the month.