Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:28 on 27 Oct 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT bryce.elder
NH
and time for a bit of Markets Live
NH
an hour or so of stimulating markets chat
BE
I was distracted reading all the Desire Petroleum bulletin boards.
NH
while Bryce scans those
NH
having traded quietly for most of the morning
NH
Desire took off about 30 mins
NH
share price was up 100% at one point
NH
and volume went through the roof
NH
we assumed they had found some oil
NH
at the Rachel side track well
NH
I think they have another 300 metres to drill
NH
we started picking up stuff like this
NH
RTRS-DESIRE PETROLEUM SHARES UP 65 PCT, TRADERS CITE BULLETIN BOARD RUMOURS OF BID APPROACH, OIL FIND
NH
des: 3i bulletin board 200p bid rumour apparently
NH
why anyone would bid for company with no oil
NH
I guess there could be oil at Rachel
NH
although given what’s passed i doubt it
NH
the shares are still up 50%
Desire Petroleum Plc (DES:LSE): Last: 110.00, up 43.25 (+64.79%), High: 141.75, Low: 66.00, Volume: 12.52m
BE
Hm. I’m still searching for this 200p bid rumour on any of the muppetville sites.
BE
It all seems to be “THE PRICE IS UP THEREFORE THERE’S NEWS SO THE PRICE IS UP THEREFORE THERE’S NEWS SO ….”
BE
The Möbius strip of rumourtrage.
NH
Copia – yellow for admiting to using Muppet sites
A term of endearment used to describe BB share promoters on FT Alphaville.
NH
actually this Muppets are becoming dangerous
NH
the government might need to impose a restraining order
NH
to prevent them from blowing themselves to pieces
BE
Hm. A lot of redundancy money tied up in the Falklands, judging by our mailbag.
BE
Definite case for regulation.
BE
So anyway, we await the RNS from Desire ….
NH
it’s rising again – up 54% now
NH
statement, statement, statement
BE
Of course it is rising. We’re talking about it.
BE
“THE PRICE IS UP THEREFORE THERE’S NEWS SO THE PRICE IS UP THEREFORE THERE’S NEWS SO ….”
BE
We’re in a feedback loop of noise.
NH
this madness has to stop
BE
Yes. So let’s stop it here.
BE
And move on to weightier matters.
NH
a few flashes hitting the tape
NH
that have helped the price of
Heritage Oil Plc (HOIL:LSE): Last: 361.50, up 15.5 (+4.48%), High: 365.40, Low: 341.80, Volume: 606.30k
Tullow Oil PLC (TLW:LSE): Last: 1,213, up 3 (+0.25%), High: 1,214, Low: 1,190, Volume: 663.19k
NH
DJ Uganda Energy Minister: Tullow Oil Agreed To Pay $400 Mln
*DJ Uganda Minister: Plan To Launch Licensing Round Early Next Year
*DJ Uganda Energy Minister Was Speaking To Reporters
BE
(@shaunrc999: they’re at Canary Wharf, having elevenses. I assume the tea trolley arrived 12 minutes ago.)
NH
bored with oil — for now
NH
FTSE 100 off 28 points at 5,678
NH
and that’s because the dollar is up
NH
on the back of the latest exclusive from Fedwire
BE
Ah. Stateside Pestowire.
Top News from Top Sources. The BBC’s Business Editor, Robert Peston, has played in important role keeping the British public fully informed during these difficult times.
BE
(@Shaun: it’s a big tea trolley.)
NH
more macro focused though
NH
the latest story is that QE2
NH
won’t be the big bazooka we were all expecting
NH
By JON HILSENRATH And JONATHAN CHENG
The Federal Reserve is close to embarking on another round of monetary stimulus next week, against the backdrop of a weak economy and low inflation—and despite doubts about the wisdom and efficacy of the policy among economists and some of the Fed’s own decision makers.
The central bank is likely to unveil a program of U.S. Treasury bond purchases worth a few hundred billion dollars over several months, a measured approach in contrast to purchases of nearly $2 trillion it unveiled during the financial crisis. The announcement is expected to be made at the conclusion of a two-day meeting of its policy-making committee next Wednesday.
NH
this is from the WSJ BTW
NH
The Fed’s aim is to drive up the prices of long-term bonds, which in turn would push down long-term interest rates. It hopes that would spur more investment and spending and liven up the recovery. But officials want to avoid the “shock and awe” style used during the crisis in favor of an approach that allows them to adjust their policy, and possibly add to their purchases, over time as the recovery unfolds.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s push to restart the bond-buying program—a form of monetary stimulus known as quantitative easing—has been greeted with deep skepticism among some of his colleagues.
BE
Right. So this is worth noting. He has some previous on predicting Fed moves.
NH
this could all be manipulation by the Fed
NH
get the market ready for $200bn of purchases
BE
“Manipulation” is rather a strong word. “Expectation management.”
NH
our Fed watcher here at the FT is going for a slightly higher number
NH
The US Federal Reserve’s meeting next week is likely to result in a new dollop of quantitative easing – nicknamed QE2 – but how many assets it should ultimately buy remains a hot topic for debate within the Fed.
Markets think the Fed initially will announce $500bn of asset purchases spread over six months. That fits the framework the Fed is considering and officials have not reacted adversely against the number.York Fed, suggested in a recent speech that $500bn of asset purchases “would provide about as much stimulus as a reduction in the federal funds rate of between half a point and three-quarters of a point”
NH
the Fed is preparing the ground for Qe2
NH
expect more of this in the week ahead
BE
And can we have a quick whip through response on the forex board?
NH
so the dollar was stronger earlier
NH
currenly against the euro
NH
what a stronger dollar means for the miners
Anglo American PLC (AAL:LSE): Last: 2,872, down 58 (-1.98%), High: 2,892, Low: 2,867, Volume: 887.11k
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO:LSE): Last: 4,081, down 78.5 (-1.89%), High: 4,087, Low: 4,050, Volume: 2.50m
Kazakhmys PLC (KAZ:LSE): Last: 1,339, down 52 (-3.74%), High: 1,379, Low: 1,334, Volume: 990.72k
Xstrata Plc (XTA:LSE): Last: 1,276, down 39 (-2.97%), High: 1,293, Low: 1,272, Volume: 3.98m
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC (ENRC:LSE): Last: 888.00, down 18 (-1.99%), High: 898.50, Low: 884.00, Volume: 434.11k
Randgold Resources Ltd (RRS:LSE): Last: 5,845, down 115 (-1.93%), High: 5,905, Low: 5,830, Volume: 75.20k
Antofagasta PLC (ANTO:LSE): Last: 1,274, down 27 (-2.08%), High: 1,294, Low: 1,268, Volume: 530.86k
NH
what else is happening out there?
NH
we might have to look at Carpetright
BE
Ok – that’s a bit off piste.
BE
Let’s go for the Arthur Daleys.
BE
What’s happening there?
NH
(Do What You Wanna Do – blaming the media is a very, very ,very boring line to take)
Lookers Public Limited Company (LOOK:LSE): Last: 60.50, up 0.25 (+0.41%), High: 62.00, Low: 59.75, Volume: 677.15k
NH
so the story seems to be
NH
and this is pretty RAW
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
NH
is that the company has had a bid approach
NH
from private equity around 90p
NH
it’s been knocked back and the company are going to issue a decent trading update
NH
as I say this is red raw
NH
and I wouldn’t be surprised if
NH
there was a big short position here
NH
but it’s quite this morning
NH
is the wonderfully named Binckbank
BE
Yes – every man and his dog is now heavily into Binkybanky.
NH
(Do What You Wanna Do – pls click on the top right of the screen then)
NH
note sure Evolution Group will be a bidder though
Evolution Group PLC (EVG:LSE): Last: 85.50, no change, Volume: 2.20k
NH
it’s about seven times too small
NH
what’s the market cap of this thing?
BE
(@Tony T: it takes a difference of opinion to make a newspaper market, thankfully. Nice of you to join us.)
BE
So Evo’s valued at £200m.
BE
And Binkybonk is $1.2bn
BE
Without the takeout premium.
NH
anyway shares are up again today
NH
a further 4.6% to EUR12.5
BE
Someone mentioned to me yesterday that ING might be a possible bidder for Bingleybink.
BE
Dunno if that makes sense either.
NH
talking online share trading companies
NH
have launched their CFD platform
NH
in which the mighty Goldman Sachs has a stake
BE
Ah yes – the much hyped IG competitor.
NH
well it’s not very good
NH
certainly not revolutionary
NH
in the way that Betfair was
NH
just another CFD platform
NH
with some spread betting
NH
I think at the time of the IPO some people were saying it was £200m
NH
which looks to be seriously wishful thinking
BE
Yes. Browsing the website would point that way.
BE
And it’s a very risky strategy to offer traders 30 days’ commision-free trading.
BE
Given most punters have blown themselves up within a month anyway.
NH
can you get some leverage on Desire?
Desire Petroleum Plc (DES:LSE): Last: 99.00, up 32.25 (+48.31%), High: 141.75, Low: 66.00, Volume: 17.76m
NH
has done a really good note
NH
comparing Lmax to IG index
NH
and comes to the conclusion that it’s just another competitor
NH
probably better than London Capital Group
NH
Betfair yesterday launched LMAX, their eagerly awaited CFD exchange. The product offering is more competitive than we expected. Leverage available to customers is high, with pricing set at competitive levels. However, IG still offers higher leverage to customers in most products, and pricing is similar once commission is added (LMAX is currently commission free for 30 days). We believe customers may be attracted to LMAX given the “exchange” idea, but see no reason why they would switch from IG or any other CFD provider. Firstly, the product range is limited, with no CFDs offered on individual shares (shares are the biggest proportion of IG’s CFD business). Secondly, LMAX has maximum position limits that will put off larger customers, albeit this may change over time. Thirdly, it is not clear how much “peer to peer” trading will actually take place, with prices likely to be set by market makers. Although it is clearly early days, functionality is also less sophisticated. Overall, this looks like another credible CFD offering but we certainly do not believe LMAX will do to the retail CFD market what Betfair did to the fixed odds betting market.
NH
LMAX obviously on IG’s radar. Googling “LMAX” yesterday, igmarkets.co.uk came at the top of the sponsored links. IG has also cut spreads on indices and currencies in the past year to 1 or 2 pips on most products. Given that these measures have been taken, it strikes us that IG management have thought hard about the launch and potential threat of LMAX. This is an entirely different reaction to the bookmakers when Betfair first launched. Bookmakers generally complained about ‘unfair’ tax/levy payments rather than focusing on the impact of a sophisticated new entrant
NH
Compare the meerkat: IG still wins, but only just. LMAX offers higher leverage to customers (ie lower margin requirements) than we had expected. Despite the use of a clearing house (LCH), customers can get 100x leverage on major currency pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with 50x on less frequently traded pairs. Customers can also get c67x leverage on the “UK100” (FTSE 100), vs c145x on IG’s CFD or spread betting products. Pricing is similar once commission is introduced (currently commission free for 30 days).
NH
LMAX ‘only’ offers indices and forex. LMAX does not yet offer CFDs on individual shares. This appears a major product weakness, given that IG’s most popular CFD category is individual shares, whereas forex and to a lesser extent indices, are more popular in the spread betting product mix. In addition, LMAX currently imposes maximum position limits (150 contracts on UK 100, 50 contracts on the S&P, etc), which would not be attractive to high end customers.
n Early days, but little disruption expected for now. Given their effect on the sports fixed odds market, we see Betfair as a formidable competitor and not one to underestimate in terms of potential market impact. We would expect product enhancements and amendments over the coming months. For now, however, we do not see what differentiates LMAX from existing CFD providers. The retail CFD market has just got more competitive, but we do not think that this is a re-run of the Betfair vs the bookmakers.
IG Group Holdings plc (IGG:LSE): Last: 533.00, down 3 (-0.56%), High: 535.00, Low: 529.50, Volume: 148.06k
NH
if anyone has used Lmax
NH
could they let us know
NH
some breaking news on a small cap takeover story we have been following
NH
and clearly Intec Telecom are worried about shareholders voting down the 72p a share takeover offer
NH
because they have rushed out this statement
Intec Telecom Systems Plc (ITL:LSE): Last: 72.00, down 0.5 (-0.69%), High: 72.75, Low: 72.00, Volume: 2.02m
NH
On 12 October 2010, Intec published the Scheme Circular in connection with the
recommended cash offer by CSG Systems UK Limited for the entire issued and to be
issued share capital of Intec.
The Board of Intec notes recent media speculation that another party might be
interested in making an offer for Intec. The Board of Intec wishes to clarify
that it is not currently in any discussion with any other party which might lead
to a competing offer for the Company.
NH
that’s no bid they know about
NH
and the message to shareholders
NH
pls recommend this offer
NH
because there’s nothing else
BE
“not currently in any discussion with any other party”
BE
Interesting way to phrase it.
NH
is that Toscafund with 5% is going to vote again
NH
I think this is a scheme of arrangement
NH
we are looking at 75% at the shareholder vote
BE
And, as we’ve pointed out ad nauseum, there’s a lot of companies with which Intec would dovetail.
NH
I see Partygaming are weak
Muppet stock. PartyGaming would be a penny dreadful, but for a share consolidation.
PartyGaming Plc (PRTY:LSE): Last: 264.30, down 16.6 (-5.91%), High: 280.80, Low: 263.00, Volume: 582.09k
BE
(That autotext is no longer strictly true, though still funny.)
NH
the US mid term elections
NH
he’s behind in the polls
NH
and that’s not good news
NH
because he’s the man pushing for regulating gaming in the US
NH
as opposed to just banning it
NH
coverage can be found here
NH
is the biggest play on the US gaming market
BE
Right. So Harry’s the democrat for Nevada.
BE
And is against Sharron Angle, a tea party poster girl.
NH
there’s only one winner
BE
I dare say he does. As do the Scientologists.
BE
Anyway, that’s all a sidetrack.
BE
Let’s return to the UK market shall we?
NH
Binkybankybonky update
NH
well according to the Telegraph
NH
Talk in the City: Permira rumoured to have made takeover approach for BinckBank
NH
What’s going on with BinckBank? This week London market dealers have become obsessed with the obscure Dutch online discount broker thanks to hot gossip it is a takeover target. Indeed, BinckBank shares have surged by almost 20pc since Monday.
NH
the Telegraph reveals why
NH
Today, reports suggested that London broker Evolution and ING are preparing bids for BinkBank.
However, well-placed places market sources said this not necessarily correct. The talk is that BinckBank has already received an offer from London-based Permira at €14.5 a share.
The board, though, is said to have rebuffed Permira’s advances and has hired an investment bank to look at “strategic options”. The move could lead to an auction, said market sources.
BinckBank declined to comment.
NH
quick share price update
NH
on the Binkybonkybanky
BE
Okay. We now await statements from both Desire Pets and Bankybinkbonk.
NH
I have some broker comment from Matrix
NH
Desire -stay on sidelines
NH
We still maintain our cautious approach to Desire ahead of the official results of the Rachel sidetrack. We expect that this well will reach TD very soon, but given the initial disappointment on the original vertical Rachel well, we think it best to stand on the sidelines until there is concrete news.
If the sidetrack is deemed dry, then we would expect a significant correction and we think that would be an interesting entry point. If the sidetrack finds hydrocarbons, then we would anticipate a strong run in Desire and Rockhopper shares, as the basin is further derisked and the potential for more than one development increases. That too would be a good entry point in preparation for an extended run. (The Rachel prospect is 92.5% Desire, 7.5% Rockhopper)
NH
let’s look at something slightly more sensible
NH
due to a gloomy outlook statement
CSR Plc (CSR:LSE): Last: 322.00, down 23.3 (-6.75%), High: 327.00, Low: 281.90, Volume: 6.34m
NH
Bryce you’re the expert on anything electronic
NH
Bryce has been locked out
NH
I am completely unable to comment on tech
BE
Sorry – I’m such an “expert” I can’t make bloody Firefox work.
NH
with the obvious exception of Autonomy
BE
So CSR’s third quarter is okay.
BE
But the guidance for Q4 is prerry grim.
NH
these are Bluetooth chips right?
BE
Yes. And, unfortunately, they’ve lost share for the upper end of the handset market.
BE
Yeah – basically, competitors including Broadcom have moved ahead by packing more functions onto the silicon
NH
company has a large pile of cash
NH
could it not be a takeover target?
BE
Plausibly, I guess. Though you have to question how attractive its share of the lower margin dumbphone market would be to a peer.
BE
So here’s a bit of comment from Liberum.
BE
CSR reported Q3 sales of $222 in line with our below consensus estimate, however EPS of $0.19 was well
ahead due to a much higher gross margin and lower OPEX. The company gave weak Q4 guidance of $170-
185m, well below consensus forecasts.
BE
Sales in line, EPS ahead: CSR reported sales of $222m, in line with our forecast of $221.4m, however below
consensus expectation of $225m. Underlying gross margin of 48% was very strong and OPEX was 5% below
our forecast. Underlying EPS of $0.19 was well ahead of both our and consensus estimates of $0.13. Sales in
the handset division increased 2% QoQ, Audio & Consumer decreased by 4% QoQ, while Auto and PND saw
the most growth sequentially growing by 5%.
BE
Weak Guidance: CSR are guiding to Q4 sales of $170-185m, well below current consensus forecasts of
$210m. Guidance reflects CSR’s lack of smart phone exposure, weak macro trends and capacity constraints for
GPS products. CSR have raised its long term gross margin target to mid-high forties, from the previous mid
forties target, presumably due to the greater proportion of sales outside of the handset space. The company are
talking down the prospects for the handset division, which we have been bearish on for some time.
BE
Positive partnership with Infineon/Intel: CSR have announced that they are partnering with Infineon to supply
its Bluetooth and WiFi along with two of Infineon’s high volume baseband chips. This is a longer term positive,
but is unlikely to effect results until H2 2011.
BE
Which gives a bit of substance to my earlier waffle.
BE
Lack of combo products impacts handset business
CSR reported an EPS beat for Q3 2010 but guided to a greater than seasonal
decline in revenues in Q4 which will continue to impact the business through
2011. The company’s lack of combo products, which integrate Bluetooth, WiFi
and other connectivity features, is impacting design wins in smartphones that will
limit growth in the Handset business unit (41% of Q3 sales) through 2011. The
other divisions (Audio & Consumer and Automotive & Personal Navigation
Devices) are performing better but growth is likely to be limited ahead of the
launch of combo products in 2012.
BE
Q3 beats on margin and low tax rate
Q3 revenues of $222m were 4% below our estimate and towards the lower end of
the guidance range of $220-235m. However, CSR’s gross margin was strong at
48%, reflecting the mix shift away from lower margin handsets, and a low effective
tax rate (10%) led to higher underlying EPS of $0.19 (BofAMLe: $0.15,
consensus: $0.13).
BE
Guidance is the problem
For Q4, CSR guided to revenues in the range $170-185m, down 20% at the
midpoint and 16-17% below our/consensus estimates of $213m/$210m. CSR is
continuing to suffer production shortages in some GPS product lines but the
primary reason for the shortfall is weakness in the smartphone segment. This
issue will continue next year and given its scale we would expect consensus
revenue estimates to be revised down significantly for 2011. We will review our
estimates after the analyst presentation.
BE
Strong cash position and dividend offer some comfort
The company closed Q3 with $457m in cash, up $28m q/q after $12m of share
repurchases in the period. This cash balance represents 46% of the company’s
market value at last night’s closing price and may offer some support, along with
the announcement of a proposed 4p dividend. We would expect CSR to remain
profitable in Q4 and to continue to generate cash.
BE
It will take time to win investor confidence back
With combo chips unlikely to launch before 2012, it will take time for CSR to
convince investors that it can recover market share in the wireless segment.
There is some positive product news with the launch of the CSR8000 platform
which is gaining traction with Nokia and another Tier 1 handset vendor and a
collaboration with Infineon to integrate on multiple phone platforms but it’s not
enough in the near term.
NH
Desire Pets update. BinManDan has just posted. Surely this must be the nail in the coffin
NH
BrokermanDaniel
Desire pet rumours of oil strike rachel side track hits td! Unconfirmed!
BE
It’s payday. I was concentrating on that fact.
NH
To the Alphaville Unit of the Financial Times
BE
“The Alphaville Unit” – like that. Makes you sound like Special Ops.
NH
Hope you are not zapping too many muppets
NH
that should give you all a clue
BE
Excellent. It’s always good to hear from our readers. Each and every one.
NH
i can’t understand anything else
NH
something about Canada
NH
and Tracy reading all books
BE
Hm. Much of it appears to be written in Hiragana.
BE
Anyway, this seems as good an excuse as any to publicise our scheduled “meet the punter” evening.
NH
still trying to think of a venue
NH
will want a spit and sawdust boozer
NH
so we are trying to find something like that
NH
in the Square Mile or thereabouts
NH
A no show from Money already!
BE
(Monkey: we’ll need a signed letter from your parents explaining absence.)
NH
someone was asking about
NH
and why it had pulled a bond issue
Provident Financial Plc (PFG:LSE): Last: 767.50, down 20 (-2.54%), High: 786.00, Low: 767.50, Volume: 874.70k
NH
according to Numis not a lot
NH
Provident Financial plc has decided to postpone its proposed 5yr 7% Euro bond issue at this time. Whilst over 75 accounts expressed interest in the transaction, Provident’s view was that demand was insufficient to support an adequately liquid deal size in the secondary market. The group has £325m of headroom at the moment fully funded through for peak lending December 2011 but needs extra funding for 2012. While this is not good news we do not see a funding problem with there being a number of options to secure extra funding for 2012. These include taking retail deposits with its banking licence, securing additional UK bank debt (they recently extended their UK facilities), US private placements and returning the the UK bond market where Provident recently secured £250m of ten year money.
BE
It did seem the bond issue was little more than a gesture anyway.
BE
As Numis notes, they don’t desperately need the cash.
NH
time for a bit of small cap corner
NH
I have found a new muppet stock
BE
Right then. Play the music. Light the lights ………….
BE
Who’s on the show tonight?
NH
the auto ticker won’t work
NH
it’s called Premier Management
BE
Sounds good. Premier, in fact.
NH
and the share price has gone up 500% today
NH
because they have hired some Irish businessman
NH
and got a load of gold licenses in somewhere I have never heard of
NH
Tiny AIM company Premier Management Holdings is to dispose of operating subsidiary and focus wholly on a new strategy investing in gold projects in Kyrgyzstan – which has just had its first democratic election. The Company has option to acquire 100% of Central Asia Resources and has hired Irish entrepreneur John McKeon to source deals. Highlights below:
NH
Premier is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement pursuant to which the Company has been granted an option to acquire the entire issued share capital of Central Asia Resources Limited which is investigating, and has signed protocols on, natural resource projects in Kyrgyzstan, including the Cholokkaindy Project gold exploration licence.
NH
The Company’s proposed Investing Policy will be to seek to identify further ways to create value for Shareholders through acquisitions in the natural resources sector.
In view of his experience in the natural resources sector, the Company is delighted to announce the appointment of John McKeon as a Consultant with immediate effect. The Board considers that Mr McKeon’s extensive track record of value creation, particularly within the natural resources industries, will greatly assist the Company in identifying investment opportunities. Mr McKeon is well connected, at government and ministerial level, with many of the natural resource ministries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. He is a founding shareholder and former executive director of Circle Oil plc. He is also a Consultant to oil and gas investment company Niche Group plc which earlier this year saw its shares increase some 10-15 fold since his involvement.
BE
Founder of Circle Oil.
BE
Also got into Niche Group earlier this year, with a similar result.
NH
that explains the move then
NH
pip up boy for the muppets
NH
I don’t really have any other small cap stuff
NH
the sector watcher has been looking ath the latest duster from Soco
Soco International PLC (SIA:LSE): Last: 304.00, down 22.8 (-6.98%), High: 320.00, Low: 304.00, Volume: 1.16m
NH
which others reckon is now in play
NH
SOCO International – SIA LN
Despite some encouraging signs, SIA’s second of four wells in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was ultimately dry and has been P&Ad. The Kinganga Nyanya-1 well, targeting 200m barrels recoverable, encountered good source rock and also oil shows, although a limited test failed to flow hydrocarbons. The next well in the campaign is the “H” prospect, although I’m not sure exactly where this has come from – in SIA’s last presentation it identified four large prospects named A, B, C and D on its Nganzi block. This may suggest that the group has now given up on the large tilted fault blocks drilled to date – indeed it says in the release that the H prospect is a four-way dip closure i.e. a different play-type. Doesn’t sound too encouraging to me, we’ve been negative on SIA for some time and remain so. The shares have fallen 37% from their September high of 484p/share to their current level of 326p/share, not far off our target price of 322p/share, but I certainly wouldn’t buy them yet.
NH
and he’s also got something to say on
BE
“Soco in play” has been a theory for some time.
Valiant Petroleum plc (VPP:LSE): Last: 601.00, down 9 (-1.48%), High: 607.00, Low: 598.50, Volume: 30.65k
NH
Venture Production – VPP LN
Another reminder of the risk inherent in the E&P sector as VPP’s 50%-owned Viola North exploration prospect failed, knocking the shares back 19%. The North Sea well was targeting a structure containing an estimated 110m barrels of oil, with a pre-drill Chance Of Success of 30%. Unfortunately the risking proved accurate with no evidence of hydrocarbons and the well was P&Ad as a dry hole. As is often the case these days the immediate share price reaction looked overdone, initially down 26% before recovering slightly to close down 140p at 610p/share. I’d be buying at these oversold levels, given that our risked NAV of 815p/share contained nothing for Viola.
NH
our friends at Xchanging
NH
they are going head to head with Autonomy
NH
they got another one out today
NH
do they ever win gold?
NH
XCHANGING SHORTLISTED FOR EXPATRIATE MOBILITY MANAGEMENT AWARDS (EMMAs)
Xchanging Global Mobility Services team shortlisted in both categories they were
nominated for in this year’s EMMAs.
LONDON, 27 October 2010 – Xchanging (LSE: XCH), one of the largest and fastest
growing technological business processors has been shortlisted for the 2010
Expatriate Mobility Management Awards. Nominated by its customers for two
categories, Xchanging has been shortlisted for both – ‘Global Mobility Small
Team of the Year’ award and ‘Global Mobility Rising Star of the Year’ award for
Shireen Shams, Immigration Consultant.
BE
Wow. The “expatriate mobility management awards”
NH
but much more important
NH
how much does an RNS statement cost
NH
we will be shortlisted for a Webby this year
NH
because we have forked out $400 to enter
NH
how about we knock up a statement
NH
and fire it down the line at 7.00am
BE
Yes. That’d certainly emphasise the prestige of such a prestigious prestigiousness.
NH
FT Alpavhille is pleased to announce we have been shortlisted for best business blog in the 25th webby awards after we filled out the form and paid $400m
NH
Bryce Elder, co-host of markets live, said we are thrilled to have been shortlisted even if $400 was a bit step. I hope we win because it might be an excuse for a beano to New York.
BE
“This press release will help us justify bumping on a few bottles of red when we put the $400 through expenses,” he added.
NH
someone was asking about Hermes
NH
and why the share price came back to earth
NH
trackers might have to sell
NH
because the Hermes index weighting will fall
BE
As it should, given the liquidity is zip.
NH
Hermes float decreases
Hermes (RMS FP) will decrease to 40% from 75% (105.6m shares unchanged) in FTSE at close on 1 Nov following LVMH’s (MC FP) purchase of a 14.2% stake. It was not disclosed from whom or when the purchase was made but the average price was €80.50. This, according to our analyst Aurelie Husson Dumoutier, indicates the stake was built up over time. LVMH also has options to take the stake to 17.1%.
NH
As the founding family are thought to control 72% of the company, Herme’s actual float could be as low as ~13%. Neither FTSE, MSCI or SBF current floats suggest this and are at 50% to 75% with STOXX the only index under 30% float.
Hermes could decrease to 40% from 50% float in MSCI at close 30 Nov, to 40% from 55% in SBF120 (105.6m shares unchanged) and to 105.6m/12.8% from 106.1m/27% in STOXX both at close 17 Dec.
NH
We calculate that 3.8m shares could be held indexers currently, which is 13% of the free float (assuming 72%) but 26% of the new float (assuming 86%). Indexer holding could fall to 20% of the free float if the indices adjust as indicated above. This is much larger than normal due to the higher float assumptions made by FTSE/MSCI/SBF.
Potential supply from the adjustments above is -0.3m shares/-2 days for FTSE, -0.5m/-3.9 days MSCI and -0.3m/-2 days SBF/STOXX or -1m/-7.8 days overall.
NH
just going back to Soco
NH
was is falling as we type
NH
Citi View – While this morning’s news on Kinganga Nyanya is inconclusive at this
stage, we would expect the stock to react negatively given the high hopes into this
drilling campaign in DRC, which after two wells has failed to meet market
expectations. Despite the recent de-rating, we continue to remain cautious on this
stock preferring other names including Tullow Oil (TLW.L; £12.10; 1H), Afren
(AFRE.L; £1.30; 1H) and Salamander Energy (SMDR.L; £2.19; 1H). Maintain
Hold.
NH
anything more from you
BE
I think French Hermit was asking about Wellstream
Wellstream Holdings PLC (WSM:LSE): Last: 735.50, down 4.5 (-0.61%), High: 740.50, Low: 735.50, Volume: 161.93k
NH
share price slipping back from 650p all the time
NH
and lots of the long only shareholders have sold out
BE
Yes. Still falling, and the disclosures have been interesting. Now at quite a a discount to GE’s bid.
NH
(The worst advert on CNBC is MIG Bank. Michael Smumacher trading currency pairs from the cockpit of his F1 car.)
BE
Which has created a certain amount of panic among the many, many event arbs who are long this particular story.
BE
And all of them were very keen to flag up comments from Varco yesterday.
NH
I reckon that Wellstream will soon ask the Panel for a PU/SU
NH
clearly will just sit their
NH
and watch the price head south
BE
That’s an undoubted risk, yes.
NH
(http://forexgp.migbank.com/)
BE
But, for the sake of the counterargument, here’s what Varco CEO Pete Miller said yesterday.
BE
“We’re always looking at a lot of deals,” Miller said. “As we look at some of the deals today, we’re optimistic we can bring these things to the finish line.”
BE
Ok – we’re 25 minutes into extra time.
BE
And the ROTR are losing momentum.
NH
there was talk that UBS
NH
have been hired for a wellstream counter bid
NH
don’t know if that’s true
NH
HEIDELBERG CEMENT (HEI GY) – market chatter of Cemex bid at €46..
NH
thanks for logging on rable
NH
hope to see as many of you as possible
BE
Still no RNS from Desire. Still no statement from Binglybonglybingbangboo.
NH
is trading FX from an F1 car
BE
Right. This show is over.
BE
Thanks for all your comments.
BE
See you again tomorrow.